the future of mobility: is personal car ownership a thing of the past?
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of Mobility:
Is Personal Car Ownership a Thing
of the Past?#EnergyChat Webinar
#EnergyChat Webinar
How will mobility be delivered in 2030? Will alternative fuels like electricity or biofuels finally be real competitors to oil? Will rapid urbanization and new generational demographics make
personal car ownership a thing of the past? Or will autonomous cars or trucks dominate the roadways?
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Special Thanks to our Sponsor
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#EnergyChat Webinar: Moderator
Moderator: Jesse Jenkins, Featured Writer and Digital Strategy Consultant theEnergyCollective.comTwitter: @JesseJenkins
Jesse is a researcher, analyst, and writer with expertise in energy and climate change, electric power systems, energy policy, and innovation policy. He is currently a Digital Strategy Consultant and Featured Columnist at TheEnergyCollective.com. He has published peer-reviewed papers in the journals Energy Policy and WIREs: Climate Change. Jesse has been awarded fellowships from the MIT Energy Initiative Energy and the National Science Foundation. Jesse worked previously as the Director of Energy and Climate Policy at the Breakthrough Institute and as a Policy and Research Associate at the Renewable Northwest Project.
Webinar Panelists:Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D.Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy, championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell
Don MacKenzie, Ph.D.Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of WashingtonDon MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners, the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors.
Shwetha SurenderProgram Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & TransportationLeading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in:
– Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated mobility)
– Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects
– Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change– New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)
Shell
THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY: IS PERSONAL CAR OWNERSHIP A THING OF THE PAST?
Energy Collective Webinar
November 4 2015
Wolfgang Warnecke, Chief Scientist, Mobility Shell Global Solutions (Deutschland) GmbH
November 4 2015 7
Shell
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD’S ENERGY SYSTEM FROM 1800 TO TODAY
Shell
FUTURE MOBILITY: DRIVERS & TRENDS
NEW MOBILITY
ENVIRONMENT NEW VEHICLES LEGISLATION
ENERGY NEW CONSUMER VALUES
URBANISATION CHANGE IN TRANSPORTATION
COSTS & CONVENIENCE
GHG reductionZero smog emissions
Emission-free vehiclesBEV (PHEV)/FCEV
Noise reductionRemote drive
Sub ‚Smart‘ vehicles & pedelecsCombustion engine improvementsHybridisation
Worldwide harmonisation
Emission limits (Noise, Smog & GHG)Lights & brakes
SafetyTrade barriers
Gov. R&D funding
Crude oil endsMore gas
Advanced biofuelsRenewable hydrogen
Green electricityEmotional mobilityMobility on demandBike shareCar shareTravel time
Ageing population
New architecture (‘Live & Park‘)
Suburbanisation (USA)Urbanisation (Asia)
Open up new driveways
Traffic density
Online purchase behaviourIncrease in goods transportation
Reducing personal mileage
Refuelling convenience
Transport mile/vehicle Cost of ownership
‘Continous Online‘ demand & connectivity
Changing lifestyle(Remote work; Internet shopping etc)
Shell
DRIVETRAINS, FUELS AND LUBRICANTS ...… PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE
?
10
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Transport = Door-to-door Mobility• New Vehicles: BRT, EV,
High Speed Rail
• New Business Models: Vehicle Sharing, Car Pooling
• Inter- Connectivity: Inter-modality
• Urban Planning: Reallocation of street space
• Integrated Mobility: New technology enabled multi modal integration
Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage
Transport =Private Vehicle• Freedom
• Convenience
• Status
• Progress
• No Real Alternative
Gen Y
ConnectivityPopulation
Growth
Urbanization
Social Responsibility
Natural Resources
Pollution
Congestion
Globalization
Virtualization
Mobility Integration: Paradigm Shift from Vehicle Ownership to Vehicle Usage
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Car On Demand, and Mobility on DemandThe true disruptive forces in Mobility are taking place via platforms linking supply & demand, a marketplace phenomenon; customers now expect mobility services on demand
Didi Taxi
CarsharingCar on
Demand RidesharingParking
IntegratedMobility
Rise of platforms matching supply and demand to reduce spare capacity and improve the user experience > Customers now expect on-demand solutions and are happy to use shared services.
Automation may affect light-duty vehicle energy consumption through numerous
mechanisms
@DonMackenzie9
Join the Conversation…
Follow along and share your
thoughts on Twitter at #EnergyChat
Submit your questions in the
GoToWebinarcontrol panel
#EnergyChat
Webinar Panelists:Wolfgang Warnecke, Ph.D.Chief Scientist Mobility, Shell Dr. Wolfgang Warnecke was appointed as Shell’s Chief Scientist for Mobility in May 2011. His expertise in all forms of mobility, vehicle technology, fuels and lubricants sees him advising on technology strategy, championing science, R&D and innovation, enhancing Shell’s technical reputation in the fast-changing area of mobility and looking ahead to future solutions. Wolfgang studied Mechanical Engineering at the Technical University of Hannover, specialising in automotive combustion engines, and gained a PhD in Automotive Engineering from Hamburg Tech. University in 1987. @Shell
Don MacKenzie, Ph.D.Assistant Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of WashingtonDon MacKenzie is an assistant professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at the University of Washington in Seattle. His research addresses the travel and charging behavior or electric vehicle owners, the environmental and social equity implications of shared-use transportation services, and the effects of vehicle automation on energy demand. He holds a PhD in Engineering Systems from MIT, and previously worked as a researcher on technical and policy issues spanning fuel cells, biofuels, and efficiency technologies in both the private and non-profit sectors.
Shwetha SurenderProgram Manager, Mobility | Frost & Sullivan| Automotive & TransportationLeading Frost & Sullivan’s mobility research with a particular expertise in:
– Urban Mobility & Transport Policy (including car sharing, electric vehicles, smart mobility, integrated mobility)
– Automotive Technologies & new business models, including EV’s, carsharing, ridesharing, taxi applications, ticketing & payment, and connectivity projects
– Integrated Mobility and associated technologies/behavioral or social change– New Mobility Schemes (including BRT, PRT, cycle hire)
Special Thanks to our Sponsor
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