the future of mobility - national association of insurance ......the future of mobility: automated...

The Future of Mobility: Automated Driving, Connected Cars, and Shared Mobility National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) – October 9, 2018

Carla Bailo

President & CEO, Center for Automotive Research

2CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR)

Automotive industry contract research and service organization (non-profit) with more than 30 years experience forecasting industry trends, advising on public

policy, and sponsoring multi-stakeholder communication forums.

Consortia that bring together industry stakeholders in working groups and offer networking opportunities and access to CAR staff.

RESEARCH EVENTS CONNECTIONSIndustry-driven events and conferences that deliver content, context, and connections.

Independent research and analysis on critical issues facing the industry.

CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH

Mobility: The movement of people and goods from

place to place, job to job, or one social level to another (across bridges – physical or

assumed).

3


Smart Mobility: The movement of people and goods with…

TRIPLE ZERO

0

0

0

Carbon Footprint

Stress

Accidents & Fatalities


Driver AssistanceAvailable Today

TESLA AUTOPILOT

V2X (Cadillac 2018 models)Source: Texas Instruments


Deployment Timeline Automated Driving Systems (SAE J3016 Levels 3-5)

Audi L4 – “Highway Pilot” –

Commercial Deployment

BoschL3 – Platform – Commercial

Deployment

comma.aiL4 – Commercial Deployment

HondaL3? – “Automated HW Driving” –


Lyft (with GM) L4 –Taxi – Commercial

Deployment

Nissan L4 – “Autonomous Drive” –


2getthereL4 – Fixed Route Shuttle –Commercial Deployment

BMW (with Mobileye)L4/5 – “Highly/Fully –


Continental (with Nvidia)L2-5 – Platform – Commercial

Deployment

Daimler (with Bosch and Nvidia)

L4 – Taxi – Commercial Deployment

Ford (with Argo.AI)L4 – Taxi, Delivery Vehicle –

Production Ready

UberL4 – Taxi – Commercial

Deployment

VolvoL4 – Commercial Deployment

Aptiv (with Mobileye)L4/5 – “Turnkey Solution”

Daimler (with Bosch and Nvidia)

L4 – Taxi – Pilot

GM (with Cruise)L4 – Taxi – “Commercial

Launch at Scale”

TeslaL4 – Personal Vehicle/Taxi –


Nissan – 2022 – L4/5 – Taxi – Commercial Deployment

Honda – 2025 – L4 – Commercial Deployment

Toyota – L4 – “Chauffeur” – Commercial Deployment

Volkswagen – L4 – Commercial Deployment

AptivL4 – Taxi – Pilot

EasymileL4 – Fixed Route Shuttle – Pilot

GM (with Cruise)L4 – Taxi – Pilot

Voyage L4 – Taxi – Pilot

Waymo L4 – Taxi – Pilot

Aptiv (with Lyft)L4 – Taxi – Pilot

drive.aiL4 - Taxi – Pilot

Ford (with Argo.AI)L4 – Taxi, Delivery Vehicle –

Pilot

May Mobility L4 – Fixed Route Shuttle –

Pilot

NuroL4 – Delivery Vehicle – Pilot

nuTonomy (with Lyft)L4 – Taxi – Pilot

2getthere – 2006 – L4 – Shuttle on Dedicated Lane – Commercial

Deployment

Navya – 2016 – L4 – Shuttle on Dedicated Lane – Pilot

Uber – 2016 – L4 –Taxi – Pilot (suspended)


And Coming Soon (Very Soon in Some Cases)!Prototypes, Test Vehicles, Early Deployment Vehicles

Waymo

Drive.ai

Robo-Taxis

Navya Arma

May Mobility

Low-Speed Shuttles Urban Delivery

Nuro

Ford

Long-Haul Freight

Daimler


WaymoPhoenix area, AZ (since Apr 2017)

AptivLas Vegas, NV (since May 2018) – with Lyft Singapore, SG (since 2017)

Drive.aiFrisco, TX (Jul – Dec 2018)

nuTonomyBoston, MA (since Dec 2017) – with LyftSingapore, SG (since 2018)

UberPittsburgh, PA (Sept 2016 – March 2018)Tempe area, AZ (Feb 2017 – Mar 2018)

GM/CruiseSan Francisco, CA (since Sept 2017)

VoyageSan Jose, CA (since Sept 2017)

Robo-taxi

NavyaSion, CH (Jun 2016)Lyon, FR (since Sept 2016)Paris (since Jul 2017)Las Vegas, NV (since Nov 2017)Neuhausen Rheinfall, CH (since Mar 2018)Ann Arbor, MI (since Jun 2018)

EasyMileArlington, TX (since Aug 2017)Berlin, DE (since Dec 2017)San Ramon, CA (since Apr 2018)Forus, NW (since Jun 2018)

2getthereCapelle aan den IJssel, NL (since Dec 2006)Masdar City, UAE (since Nov 2010)

May MobilityDetroit, MI (since Jul 2018)

Low-speed shuttle

FordAnn Arbor, MI (Sept 2017) – with Domino’sMiami, FL (Feb – Apr 2018) – with Domino’s Miami, FR (since Mar 2018) – with Postmates

NuroScottsdale, AZ (since Aug 2018) – with Kroger

Urban delivery

Daimler Nevada (since May 2015)Oregon (since Sept 2017)

Uber Arizona (Nov 2017 –Mar 2018)

WaymoAtlanta, GA (since May 2018)

Long-haul freight

Automated Vehicle Deployment ModelsPilots and Early Deployments

Note: For robo-taxis, low-speed shuttles, and urban delivery, only pilots and early deployments open to the general public or to a select user group are included.


Market Share: Segment BreakdownU.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2018 YTD Through September

1.3%

3.6%

4.7%

5.5%

8.4%

9.8%

13.1%

16.3%

37.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Large Car

Electrified

Luxury Car

Van

SUV

Middle Car

Small Car

Pickup

CUV

Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and CAR Research


Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change2018 YTD vs. 2017 YTD Through September

Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models

Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports and CAR Research

-15.9%

-15.4%

-13.4%

-13.4%

-1.8%

4.3%

5.5%

11.9%

12.3%

0.3%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Middle Car

Small Car

Luxury Car

Large Car

Van

Pickup

SUV

Electrified

CUV

Total


Automated Vehicle Interior Concepts

Adient concept: rotating seats Office on wheels

Enhanced accessibility

Mercedes concept: rear-facing seats

GM concept: no steering wheel or pedals


Convergence of Automated, Connected, Electrified, and Shared Vehicle TechnologyImpact on Vehicle Design

• Largest structural impact will come due to change of powertrain

• Exterior design might not be an important differentiator for consumers anymore (especially for shared, automated)

• Integration of sensors will be a priority for designers

• New challenges and innovations (e.g., biometrics, flexible seating, scratch and bacteria resistance) will emerge

• The end of driver-centric design?


Driving Automation Impact on Insurance

Impact of driving automation:

• Fewer claims and lower premiums (?)

• Significant shifts in coverage only at L4-L5

• Less focus on: driver’s motor vehicle record and characteristics

• More focus on: vehicle physical attributes, where and how the vehicle is used

Paradigm shifts:

• Apportioning blame to driver andmanufacturer/suppliers

• Greater reliance on product liability


Driving Automation Levels and Challenges in Apportioning Liability

• Assigning liability for SAE L1 to L3

• Lengthy litigation between manufacturers, suppliers, and vehicle operator/driver

• Shifting from driver-focused insurance laws to vehicle-focused laws


Guidelines for the Insurance Industry

• Strengthen technical underwriting capabilities and AV knowledge

• Prepare for incremental changes to cost structures

• Prepare to navigate with insufficient or incomplete data, and exploit emerging sources

• Explore new categories of risks


Connected Vehicle Applications

• V2V & V2I Communication

• Autonomous Navigation & Collision

Avoidance

• Location Based Services

• Smart & Resilient Infrastructure

Courtesy of Prof. Dorota Brzezinska, OSU


Internet of Things and Transportation

• Multimodal Integrated Payment & Trip Planning

• Shared pick-up and drop-off vehicles

• Seamless integration of travel data

• Better Modeling


Internet of Things Applications in Cities

• New and Improved Infrastructure

• Decreased Carbon Footprint

• Ensured Safety by Location

• Infrastructure Monitoring

Courtesy of Prof. Dorota Brzezinska, OSU


Digital Twin Technology for Smart Cities

Digital twin is the best way for cities to manage growth and becoming “smart”…

• Digitization of physical assets and systems -transportation, communications, infrastructure etc.

• While initial investment may seem high, over time robustness will increase and costs will come down

• Enables modeling of physical assets, systems and potential strategies

• To optimize operations, processes and solutions

Image Source: http://www.atdi.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/coverage_lte_ics_designer2.jpg


Leveraging Ubiquitous Connectivity for the Insurance Sector

Impact of vehicle connectivity:

• Abundance of real-world data

• More predictability, less fraud

Paradigm shifts:

• New risks: cyber threats at the individual, vehicle, fleet, infrastructure level

Guidelines:

• Establish advanced analytics capabilities

• Plan for product and business-line shifts


Shared Mobility Services

Shared mobility services are transportation solutions enabled by emerging technologies and wireless connectivity that allow for more convenient, efficient, and flexible travel.

RIDESOURCING CARSHARING

RIDESHARING BIKESHARING

MICROTRANSIT

MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE


E n h a n ce d Human Ser v i ces ( E H S )

M u l t i - M o d a l T r i p P l a n n i n g

A p p l i c a t i o n

I n t e g r a t e d C o m m o n P a y m e n t

S y s t e m

I n c l u s i v e

M o b i l i t y

Common Payment Systems


New services

New vehicle concepts

New functionalities

New ownership

models

New business

partnerships

Shared Mobility Services Opportunities for the Auto Industry

The rise of shared mobility services is part of a mobility evolution that brings many opportunities for the auto industry.


Major Automakers’ Partnerships Related to Mobility, Connectivity, and Driving Automation

Acquisition

Investment

Subsidiary / Brand

Partnership

TRI-AD


RidesourcingAdoption

Adoption and Utilization of Ridesourcing in Major U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Source: Clewlow, Regina R. and Gouri Shankar Mishra (2017). Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the United States, UC Davis


Growth of North American Carsharing Programs

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (Jan)

Members North America 211,170 318,898 377,597 516,100 639,428 908,584 1,146,374 1,625,652 1,526,532 1,837,854 1,927,228

Vehicles North America 6,492 7,507 9,768 10,405 10,381 15,795 20,784 24,210 25,224 26,691 24,629

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Yearly data represents July numbers, unless otherwise specified. Totals include one-way and round-trip carsharing and exclude P2P programs. Proxies were used for five of the 32 round-trip operators.

Source: Shaheen, S., Cohen, A., Jaffee, M (2018). Innovative Mobility: Carsharing Outlook, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley.


Source: Shared Use Mobility Center

Shared Mobility Services in North America

600+ cities with ridesourcing

20+ cities with pooled rides

10+ cities with microtransit

400+ cities with carshare (round trip, free floating, P2P)

400+ cities with bikeshare (stationed, dockless) & scooters

28CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCHSource: Shared Use Mobility Center, CAR research

Shared Mobility Services in North America Pooled rides and ridesharing

Bikesharing (stationed)

Carsharing (P2P)Carsharing (round trip)

Microtransit

Carsharing (free floating)

Ridesourcing

Bikesharing (dockless) Scooter sharing


Insuring Manually Operated Mobility Services

Paradigm shifts:

• Vandalism and theft will become more prevalent risk categories

Challenges:

• Adoption of mobility services will vary by geography and demographics

• How to insure a vehicle used for personal use and ridesourcing and carsharing?

• Will we need ‘safety profiles’ for every mobility user and operator?

Guidelines:

• Retrain claims adjusters to interpret intricacies of shared mobility services


Insuring Automated Mobility Services

Paradigm shifts:

• From driver-centric insurance to mobility operator-centric

Challenges:

• Threat from non-traditional competitors (manufacturers, mapping companies, startups)

Guidelines:

• Develop new insurance products (e.g., coverage against sensor or communication failure, recall risk, risks related to infrastructure)

THANK YOU

the future of mobility - national association of insurance ......the future of mobility: automated...

Documents