FuturistGerd.com@gleonhard

A futuristic outlook on the creator, consumer & the business in between

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Most of what I am about to share with you is actually good news…

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Music: is Sweden (and Scandinavia) showing us the future?

E-M-P-O-W-E-R-M-E-N-T

☯Music Creators

Digitization

Global Transformation driven by Digitization: When Products become Services and Experiences, the creator becomes even more crucial

Product ExperienceService

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All media is shifting from protection to engagement

Photo by WallStreet Journal.com

Maybe this is a good time to…

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rights licensing across Europe?

Disembodiment of Media

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The rapid disembodiment of music will force us to create a collective, EU-wide solution

Copying ☯ Listening

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… the incarnation of this trend: mobile!

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B4 Internet 1st digital wave Now Tomorrow? youtube

Potential ‘Digital Audience’ Revenue per 'Unit'

The inevitable result of digitization: lower per-unit revenues - Offensive Innovation is crucial -

CD & Vinyl

iTunes

Spotify Pandora Youtube*@gleonhard

Music is not unique in this: massive consumer empowerment’s inevitable consequence is price reduction

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New Scarcities:

Attention Brand

Relevance Context

Timeliness Embodiment…

Abundance of ways to ‘get music’

As distribution becomes abundant, new things become scarce

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The Music Industry Curse: Ego

Industrial & Mechanical ☯ Digital & Exponential Controlling Distribution ☯ Monetizing Attention

Largely monopolistic EGOsystems ☯ Collective ECOsystems

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence, itself, but to act with yesterday’s logic”*Peter Drucker

http://bostinno.streetwise.co/2012/08/27/pirating-music-kill-a-horse-instead-7-crimes-not-as-bad-as-illegally-downloading-music/

Many new value generatives i.e. a ‘Royal Family’

http://www.zimbio.com/pictures/APDwKZ3i-RJ/Nobel+Prize+Award+Ceremony+2008/8XVWQBpueY7/King+Carl+Gustaf+XVI

Digital Money is a certain future: not if but when, where…WHONo longer about distribution but about attention

In large, hardware-dominated markets (US, UK, Germany

etc), ‘fake ownership’ of music used to work - but fast

decline is certain!

There is no long-term mass market for digital single downloads - but mobile music and download-HD-to-keep as a premium product has great potential !

Fake Scarcity is misleading both the artists and the consumers

Managed dissatisfaction is not a sustainable business model

Image via Popsci.com

$ $

*Reed Hastings, Netflix

http://evolver.fm/2013/07/23/paid-music-downloads-are-declining-but-why/

“Managed Dissatisfaction”

43 Million subscribers in 23 countries: be irresistible!

Distribution as a key revenue driver or as competitive advantage is a ‘burning platform’

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Distribution as a key revenue driver or as competitive advantage is a ‘burning platform’

Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard

Brand & Audience

I am happy to pay cash (or data i.e. attention) for highly personalized, timely, social, meaningful, relevant, high-resolution content - but it must be on 100% irresistible terms: simple, easy, fair

The message is clear: consumers want cheap, bundled or ‘feels like free’ access first, and will only then consider going further

2010

http://musicbusinessresearch.wordpress.com/2013/10/18/is-streaming-the-next-big-thing-what-consumers-want/

FREE BEATS EVERYTHING

CONTROLLING DISTRIBUTION IS

ESSENTIAL

VALUE-TRUST-RELEVANCE

CONTEXT-SERVICE

EARNING AND KEEPING

ATTENTION IS ESSENTIAL

Sell copies

License Access

The ‘forced evolution’ of musicSell

Premiums

Yes, we already have a model for this

but the legal structure of music commerce must be transformed urgently

A €10 Billion recorded music market in Europe?1€ per Internet user in Europe / month for basic streaming & offline service

Approx. 600 Million Internet users in Europe x 12 = 7.2 Billion per year This would be 40% of current global recorded music earnings in 2012 The 1 € could easily be paid for by telcos / ISPs / portals (advertising)

Up-selling to 10+ premiums could yield another 30-50% revenues Add another 400 Million mobile phone users…

Music is indispensable to the next generation media powerhouses

…and these guys already see music as disembodied, mobile, cloud-based ‘added value’ …+++

Can Europe create a new digital

music Ecosystem?

Music industry reset: think ‘Biosphere’ not ‘Myosphere’

COLLABORATE - NOW - OR GET

SQUASHED BY FAST INNOVATORS

We are at a

pivotal point

The CD (physical media) is quickly disappearing in the rearview mirror: (em)brace

‘Managed dissatisfaction’ (such as iTunes) won’t make the pie bigger

Beyond a doubt, streaming and ‘access’ is the new ownership: new laws needed!

‘Access’ may result in a 90% reduced ‘unit price’ but has x1000 audience

We need digital music licenses that enable Billions of users to contribute $€£

Many new premiums can be offered on-top of ‘feels-like-free access’

The new (old:) ‘embodiment’ of music is the artist and the brand, themselves

Social media, video, mobile (SoViMo) are huge opportunities: get engaged!

In the EU, we need offensive innovation, real leadership and hyper-collaboration

Thanks for your time and attention... Now, let’s talk!