the future of natural gas engines for truck and bus david lynch cummins westport inc
TRANSCRIPT
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The Future of Natural Gas Engines
for Truck and Bus
David LynchCummins Westport Inc.
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Why Diesel?
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C15 Rev 6/98
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Why Natural Gas?
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Complex Hydro Carbon
Simplest Hydro Carbon
Highest hydrogen-to-carbon ratio of any
hydrocarbon
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Fuel Price History
Price History for Crude Oil, Diesel Fuel, and Pipeline Industrial Natural Gas
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
Pri
ce
US
ce
nts
pe
r d
iese
l-e
qu
iva
len
t g
allo
n].
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Pri
ce
US
Do
llars
pe
r B
arr
el
U.S. No 2 Diesel Retail Sales by All Sellers [Cents per Gallon]
Price of Natural Gas Sold to Commercial Consumers in the U.S. [Cents per Diesel-Equivalent Gallon (Westport unit conversion)]
Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB [Dollars per Barrel]Diesel Fuel
Natural Gas
Crude Oil
Natural gas has been 25- 42% cheaper than Diesel over last 14 years
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OEM Availability-Transit
Neoplan AN 440 TLF
Neoplan AN 440 LFNABI 60LFW
Orion VII LF
NABI 40LFW
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OEM Availability-Refuse
Autocar WXLL
Peterbuilt 320
Sterling Condor
Autocar Expeditor
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U.S. Emissions Standards Continue to Evolve
0.010.01 0.100.10
0.20.2
1.21.2
2.52.5
4.04.0
5.05.0
19941994
19981998
20022002
20072007
20102010
PARTICULATE [g/ HPPARTICULATE [g/ HP--hr]hr]0.00.0
0.00.0
NO
x /
NO
x+
NM
HC [
g/H
PN
Ox /
NO
x+
NM
HC [
g/H
P-- h
r]hr]
15 PPM15 PPM
500 PPM500 PPM
SULFURSULFUR
0.010.01 0.100.10
0.20.2
1.21.2
2.52.5
4.04.0
5.05.0
19941994
19981998
20022002
20072007
20102010
PARTICULATE [g/ HPPARTICULATE [g/ HP--hr]hr]0.00.0
0.00.0
NO
x /
NO
x+
NM
HC [
g/H
PN
Ox /
NO
x+
NM
HC [
g/H
P-- h
r]hr]
15 PPM15 PPM
500 PPM500 PPM
SULFURSULFUR
Urban Bus
Phase-In Period
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What is changing?
Higher vehicle pricing for new technology
Higher cost of Ultra Low Sulfur diesel fuel
SCR for 2010
The shifting economics of diesel operation
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Consider the Natural Gas Alternative
Things have changed
Natural gas not for everyone
Natural gas as the lower cost alternative
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Diesel / NG Pathways to 2010
DieselULSDActive Diesel Particulate FiltersCEGR (ISC/ISL)NOx Adsorber or SCR
SCR more efficient but a liquid that will be regulated and taxed
Crank Case Ventilation (CV) ’07Lube Oil
Will require new, low ash oilNew Oil Filters
=1.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 20070.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2010
Natural Gas No change- CNG or LNG capable Replace Oxicat with Three Way Catalyst Add- CEGR (ISL G) No NOX adsorber required
No CV required–reduced maintenance vs. LBSI
No Change- Low Ash Oil in use today CES20074
Fleetguard Filter
= 0.2 NOx + 0.01 PM in 2007
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Engine Technologyfor 2007
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The Two Key EmissionTechnologies for 2007 Natural Gas Engines
Cooled Exhaust Gas Recirculation (CEGR)
Three Way Catalyst (TWC)
Cummins
Fleetguard
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Natural Gas Technology Featuring Stoichiometric Cooled
EGRLowest emissions with use of simple passive TWCHigher efficiency with combustion enhancements8.9 litre stoichiometric EGR engine with ratings 250- 320 hp
Improved clutch engagement torqueHigher efficiency/improved fuel economyReliability/DurabilityCummins diesel parts
0.2 NOx in 2007
vs. 1.2 Phase in Provision
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Introducing Next Generation 2007 Natural Gas Engine Technology ISL G will meet 2010 emissions standards
ahead of schedule (0.2 g/bhp-hr NOx, 0.01 g/bhp-hr PM)
85% lower NOx than C Gas Plus34% more torque at idle Improved efficiency=improved fuel economyNo exhaust related maintenance costs
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Specifications
Maximum Horsepower
320 bhp300 bhp280 bhp250 bhp*
238 kW224 kW209 kW186 kW
Peak Torque 1000 lb-ft860 lb-ft900 lb-ft660 lb-ft*
1356 Nm1166 Nm1220 Nm895 Nm
Governed Speed 2200 rpm
Engine Displacement
540 cu. in. 8.93 L
Aftertreatment Three Way Catalyst (Maintenance Free)
* Note: ISL G 250 will be available Jan 2008
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Highway/Energy BillPrivate Fleets
0.067 0.203 0.136 0.55 0.419
LNG $/ DGE
CNG$ / DGE
CNG$ / DGE
To Fleet
To Fuel Provider
To Fuel Provider
Old Tax
New TaxOct 1, 2006
Net BenefitOct 1, 2006
Up to $32,000 Vehicle Tax Credit
Up to $30,000 Infrastructure Tax Credit To Fleet
Energy Bill*
Highway Bill*
All Infrastructure
Don’t Own Infrastructure
Own Infrastructure
0.067 0.203 0.136 0.55 0.419
TaxCredi
t
0.202 0.413 0.211 0.85 0.639
To Fleet
Net Tax
Increase
* CWI’s Interpretation Subject to IRS Rule Making
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LCC
Life Cycle Costing
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LCC Analysis – US Urban Bus
($15,000)
($10,000)
($5,000)
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
2004-2006 2007-2009 2010+
Rel
ativ
e A
nn
ual
Co
sts
(US
$/u
nit
/yr)
Diesel Diesel Electric Hybrid Natural Gas
Model Year
$1472$2269
$655
$3191
($836) ($955)
Natural Gas with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions
($9263)($10,305) ($10305)
$1746
Diesel Electric Hybrid with Energy Bill Provisions
$2786
$1067$1370$1496
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LCC Analysis - Refuse Collection
($15,000)
($10,000)
($5,000)
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
2004-2006 2007-2009 2010+
Rel
ativ
e A
nn
ual
Co
sts
(US
$/u
nit
/yr)
Diesel Cummins Westport
Model Year
Cummins Westport with Energy & Highway Bill Provisions
Private($4144)
Private($4144)
Private($3337)
$5743
$1675$2498
$2573$2498
Public($5962)
Public($6644)
Public($6644)
Baseline
NO
x E
mis
sio
n L
eve
l (g
/bh
p-h
r)
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
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Conclusions
The economics of vehicle operations are shifting
Energy/Highway Bill funding makes Natural Gas a Bargain.
Some businesses will profit from the opportunity.
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Key Characteristics-Diesel vs. NG Natural Gas Engines Continuous Improvement
L 10 G C 8.3 C Plus ’07 Gas
Emissions Better Better Better Better
Reliability Worse Worse Similar Similar
Fuel Cost/Mile Worse Worse Similar Better
Durability Worse Worse Similar Similar
LCC Worse Worse Worse Better
Timeline 1989 1996 2001 2007
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What is over the Horizon ?
LCNG
LFG to LNG
HCNG
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What is Next?
Think about what happens next with Diesel.
Think about using Natural Gas for the right applications.
Find the best alternative for your duty cycle.
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Change is Inevitable
“except from a vending machine”