the future of public services. taxation and public expenditure as % of gdp source: office for budget...
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The future of Public Services
Taxation and Public Expenditureas % of GDP
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook Charts and Tables, March 2014, Chart 1.1
Public Expenditure as % of GDPS
we
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Fra
nce
Den
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kA
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ary
Bel
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mF
inla
nd
Ital
yP
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alG
erm
an
yN
eth
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and
sC
zech
Rep
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Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Gre
ece
Icel
and
Po
lan
dN
orw
ayL
uxe
mb
ou
rgC
ana
da
New
Zea
lan
dS
pai
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pan
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Rep
ub
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Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ire
lan
dS
ou
th K
ore
a
Environmental ProtectionHousing/Community AmenitiesRecreation; culture and religionDefensePublic Order and SafetyEconomic AffairsEducationGeneral Public ServicesHealthSocial Protection
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2004 - 2007
The State is Changing: more welfare and less of everything else
• The NHS is increasing within the State, as is welfare and education
• Defence, Business, Home Office, Justice, Transport and Local Government all now in long-term decline
• Reducing public expenditure to 37% or even 35% of GDP will further raise the share of welfare within public expenditure
Departmental Cuts (% of DEL) Announced 4th June 2015
National Context
• Economic Recovery• Deficit reduction & Comprehensive Spending Review• Health/ASC issues• Public expectation• Devolution/new forms of working• Digital/Technology
East Sussex
Demographic Cost Drivers
Total population (5561 = 1%)
Pre school (0-3) (-795 = -3.6%)
School age (4-17) (244 = 0.3%)
Working age (18-64) (-1281 = -0.4%)
Older people 65+ (7392 = 5.5%)
5.5% increase in population aged 65+10.6% increase in people with dementia in this group
8% increase in population limited by long-term illness = 46% of total population
Older People
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2015 2019
Projected East Sussex Population Change
85+
65-84
18-64
0-17
+7.5%
+5.2%
-0.4%
-0.5%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2015 2019
Projected East Sussex Population Change
85+
65-84
18-64
0-17
+7.5%
+5.2%
-0.4%
-0.5%
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden
Projected population change by District 2015 - 2019
Projected Population Change By District 2015-19
Planned Housing and Employment Floor Space Development
WealdenHousing: 9,440 dwellings (2006-2027)Per annum: 450Employment floor space: 128,695 sq.m (2006-2027)
EastbourneHousing: 5,022 dwellings (2006-2027) Per annum: 239Employment floor space: 43,000 sq.m (2012-2027)
LewesHousing: 5,600 dwellings (2010-2030) Per annum: 280Employment floor space: 74,000 sq.m (2012-2031)
HastingsHousing: 3,400 dwellings (2011-2028)Per annum: 200Employment floor space: 70,000 sq.m (2008-2028)
RotherHousing: 5,700 dwellings (2011-2028)Per annum: 335Employment floor space: 100,000 sq.m (2011-2028)