the future of refrigerants jim wolf global policy associates may 2015

The future of refrigerantsThe future of refrigerants

Jim Wolf

Global Policy Associates

May 2015

Current and future environmental policy

Refrigerant comparisons

Future refrigerants

Overview

Objective “To control and eventually eliminate …

OZONE-DEPLETING substances .”

Among 6 major chemicals, CFC and HCFC refrigerants

were classified as an Ozone Depleting substances, and subject to phase outs.

Adopted in Montreal on September 16, 1987

Montreal Protocol

December 1997, Kyoto Japan, Conference of Parties

Kyoto Protocol focus is on Global Warming.

Among 6 major chemicals, HFC refrigerants

were classified as Global Warming, or Greenhouse Gases,

and subject to restrictions.

Kyoto Protocol

Efficiency Drives Environmental Impact

Important Environmental Policy

Montreal Protocol (UNEP)

Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC)

Country Policies and Regulations

Montreal Protocol: HCFC Phase out Dates

Note: Most recent Montreal Protocol meeting took place in Montreal, September 2007

In the EU new HCFC products can no longer be deliveredExport of HCFC products allowed till December 2009Jan.2010: Ban on refilling existing products with virgin HCFC Jan.2015: Ban on refilling existing products with recycled HCFC

Developed Countries, except EU 27

Developing Countries

European Union

2016 Freeze quantities at 2015 levels

No interim step down

2040 Total phase out

Copenhagen - 1992 Montreal - September 2007

1996 Freeze quantities 2004 35% reduction 2010 75% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for

I service only 2030 Total phase out

2013 Freeze quantitiesBaseline set at average of 2009/2010 production levels

2015 10% reduction2020 35% reduction2025 67.5% reduction2030 97.5% reduction 2030 Remaining 2.5% is for

I service only2040 Total phase out

1996 Freeze quantities2004 35% reduction 2010 65% reduction 2015 90% reduction 2020 99.5% reduction2020 remaining 0.5% is for


Note: Most recent Montreal Protocol meeting took place in Montreal, September 2007




European Union















European Union























US EPA Accelerated Phase-out Rule (Unchanged)

CFCs

1996 All CFCs 0 % (Production)

HCFCs

1996 Cap at 2.8% (3.1%) of 1989

Consumption of CFCs plus HCFCs

2003 HCFC-141b 0 % (Production)

2010 HCFC-142b (No New Product Use)

HCFC-22 (No New Product Use)

2020 HCFC-22 0 % (Production)

HCFC-142b 0 % (Production)



2030 All HCFCs 0 % (Production)

ODP Weighted U.S. HCFC Use and HCFC CapM

illion

Kilog

ram

s C

FC

-11

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

Million

Kilog

ram

s C

FC

-11

Eq

uiv

ale

nt

HCFC Production CapActual HCFC usage

Actual R-123 usage

19851985 19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020 20252025 20302030

65% - 200465% - 2004

25% 25%

10% - 201510% - 2015

0.5% - 20200.5% - 2020

35% - 201035% - 2010Sep07 MP

Change

15

10

5

0

Expected new HCFC demand1

1http://epa.gov/ozone/title6/phaseout/ServicingNeedsRevisedDraftReport_September.2006.pdf

Will There Be Enough R123

2020-2030- 0.5% of 1989 level of “equivalent” R-11Assumptions: Chillers in US with R-123 (50,000 chillers)

Average chiller size: 500 tonsRefrigerant charge: 2 lbs/ton (1.7)Average charge/chiller: 1000 lbs0.5% leakage rate/yr

(50,000 chillers) x (1000 lbs/chiller) x (0.5% leakage rate/year) = 250,000 lbs/yr

0.5% cap from 1989 levels equates to 12,100,000 lbs/year of R-123

Almost 50 times the needed volume can be produced!

HCFC Consumption Caps

*0.5 percent of CAP from 2020 - 2030 only forservice of existing refrigeration and air conditioningequipment

This shows reduction of total HCFC consumption based upon the Kg/ODP cap andshould not be interpreted to represent 100 percent reduction of R-123 Kg/ODP nor ofall HCFCs

Eliminated R-141b on 1/1/2003

Eliminate R-22, new equipment on 1/1/2010

Eliminate R-22 forservice; R-123 in newequipment on 1/1/2020

No addition HCFC elimination 1/1/2015

100 percent HCFCreduction on 1/1/2030

CAP = 1989 CFC consumption x 2.8% plus 100% of 1989 HCFCconsumption (ODP weighted basis)

6

R-123 is used as a feedstock to produce R-125

R-125 is 50% of the blend that makes R-410A ( replacement for R-22)

R-125 is 25% of the blend that makes R-407C

Will R-123 continue to be manufactured ?

Climate change policy Kyoto Protocol created in 1997

European Union CO2 cap & trade program, and HFC regulation enacted in 2005

Activity in 2015

Climate Change negotiations for 2015 agreement

Cap & trade programs/legislation

Montreal Protocol proposals on HFC phase down

EU regulation on HFCs

U.S. HFC regulation

Canadian regulation consultation

U.S. Senate Climate Change Legislation

S. 2191 – Lieberman – Warner bill (Cap and Trade Program) Caps greenhouse gas emissions

Reduces greenhouse gas emissions

Greenhouse gas coverage Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide

Sulfur hexafluoride

Perfluorocarbons

Hydrofluorocarbons, HFCs (Separate basket)

- Cap set in 2012

-70% reduction by 2037

HFC Allowed CapGWP weighted CO2 Eq

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

To

nn

es

CO

2 E

q Low-GWP solutions needed

HFC Cap vs Business as Usual Demand

H.R. – 2454, Waxman – Markey legislation - Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005, and 2006

consumption of HFCs

- Phase down of production of HFCs:

. 12.5% reduction in 2013

. 22.5% reduction by 2017

. 33% reduction by 2020




- Passed House (6/26/09) and sent to Senate

Kerry - Lieberman legislation (American Power Act)

- Establishes baseline of average of 2004, 2005, and 2006 consumption of HFCs

- Phase down of production of HFCs:

. 12.5% reduction in 2013

. 22.5% reduction by 2017





- Introduced May 11, 2010

HFC PHASE DOWN PROPOSAL Submitted in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2015

Proposal by Canada, U.S., and Mexico to transfer HFC controls to Montreal Protocol

Baseline of average of 2011 – 2013 consumption and production of HFCs + 50% of HCFCs

Phase down of production/consumption of HFCs in Developed Countries:

- 10% by 2019 ; 35% by 2024; 70% by 2030; 85% by 2036

Proposals submitted by Micronesia from 2010 –2015

New proposals submitted by India and EU in 2015

. Amendment proposals to be considered 12/2015

Amendment Proposals to Montreal Protocol

U.S., Canada, & Mexico:

Phasedown: 2019 – 90%, 2024 – 65%, 2030 – 30%; 2036 – 15%

. EU:

Phasedown: 2019 – 85%, 2023 – 60%, 2028 – 30%; 2034 – 15%

. India:

Phasedown: 2018 – 90%, 2023 - 65%, 2029 – 30%; 2035 – 15%

. Micronesia:

Phasedown: 2017 – 85%, 2021 – 65%, 2025 – 45%, 2029 – 25%; 2033 – 10%

HFC PHASEOUT LAWS Switzerland

Air conditioners HFC ban - 2005

Denmark

GENERAL HFC ban - 2006

Cooling plants, heat pumps & air conditioning Plant HFC ban - 2007

Austria

Air conditioning and Mobile refrigeration HFC ban 2008

European Union - HFC Regulations

Stationary air conditioning & refrigeration - (2005)

- Containment and recovery of HFCs

- Training and Certification of technicians

Automobile HFC-134a Ban – (2005)

- No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 2011

- No servicing in 2019

EU Regulation on HFCs

EU Regulation on HFCs – Adopted April 2014 Phase down schedule for HFCs from baseline of

the average from 2008 to 2011:

Years Quantity Allowed

2015 100%

2016-17 93

2018-20 63

2021- 23 45

2024-26 31

2027-29 24

2030 21

1st. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List

NRDC, IGSD, and EIA

Petition filed with EPA Administrator - May 7, 2010

Primary request for removal of HFC-134a for auto

Secondary request for removal of HFC-134a for aerosols, fire suppression, foam blowing agents, refrigeration, and air conditioning sector

Regulation proposed to de-list HFC-134a use in autos (2022) and insulation (2017)

2nd. Petition to remove HFC-134a from SNAP List

IEA petitioned EPA on April 26, 2012

- Remove HFC-134a and blends for any ODS in non-essential uses

- Remove HFC-134a and blends for every end-use where more benign alternatives are available

NRDC petitioned EPA on April 27, 2012

- Remove HFC-134a for household and retail food refrigerators & freezers

3rd. Petition expected to remove HFC-134a from chillers

CAFE Standard for cars and light trucks

National Highway Traffic Safety – DOT

Final rule published May 7, 2010

Requires average 34.1 mpg by 2016

Provides 6 mpg credit for use of non-HFC (134a) air conditioning system

Federal Acquisition Regulation – Proposed Rule – 5/11/15

Affects DOD, GSA, and NASA purchases

Adds restriction on procurement of products containing high GWPs

Requires agencies to procure, when feasible, alternatives to high GWP HFCs (R-134a, R-410a, R-407C) and to non-ODP refrigerants used in air conditioners.

Limits purchase of equipment containing HFCs and/or HCFCs

Environment Canada – Consultation Meetings

Consultation meetings – March 2015

Residential air conditioning: no manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends with GWP above 750.

Commercial and Industrial air conditioning: no manufacture or import of equipment with HFCs or HFC blends with GWP above 750.

Rio+20 UN Conference on Sustainable Development

Conference concluded on June 22, 2012

Agreement document – “The Future We Want”

HFC provision:

“We support a gradual phase-down in the consumption and production of HFCs.”

Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A

HFC-407C

HFC-245fa

OD

P (R

-11=

1.0)

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


HFC-407C

HFC-245fa

GW

P (C

O2=

1.0

)

Efficiency for Chillers (COP)

5.4

5.6

5.8

6

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8


HFC-407C

HFC-245fa

CO

P

Atmospheric Life (Years)

0

20

40

60

80

100


HFC-407C

HFC-245fa

Yea

rs

CFC-1112

113114

HCFC-22123

141b142b

HFC-32125

134a143a152a

227ea236fa245fa

ODP (relative to R-11) GWP (relative to CO2)

0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000

404A407C410A

J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November 2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments). © JMC 2001

Ozone Depletion Potential & Global Warming - Balancing ODP vs GWP

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE

Natural Refrigerant Considerations

CO2CO2 Low Temp/Refrigeration/AutomotiveLow Temp/Refrigeration/AutomotiveVery low efficiency in HVAC applicationsVery low efficiency in HVAC applications

CO2 has half the efficiency of R-22 and R410ACO2 has half the efficiency of R-22 and R410A

HydrocarbonsHydrocarbons Stationary Air ConditioningStationary Air Conditioning Safety issues on application, service, recoverySafety issues on application, service, recovery

AmmoniaAmmonia Low Temp/Process Chiller ApplicationsLow Temp/Process Chiller ApplicationsLimited opportunities for safe applicationsLimited opportunities for safe applications Safety and environmental issues, service, recoverySafety and environmental issues, service, recovery

Water Stationary Air ConditioningWater Stationary Air Conditioning Low efficiency in normal HVAC applicationsLow efficiency in normal HVAC applications

© 2008 Trane, a business of Ingersoll Rand.

Options For HVAC Refrigerants

Fluorocarbons “Natural” Refrigerants

Class 1High ODP CFC’s

Non- Ozone Depleters(Kyoto Protocol)

Ozone Depleters(Montreal Protocol)

Class 2Low ODP HCFC’s

Higher GWP Lower GWP

R-11R-12R113R-500

R-22R-123

R-134aR-410AR-407C

R-32R-152a

PropaneButaneCO2

AmmoniaWater

-Toxicity Concerns-Efficiency Concerns-Cost Concerns

-ODP Concerns-GWP Concerns- Flammable

GWP

ODP

ODP

ODP

ODP

ODP

ODP

ODP

GWP

GWP

GWP

GWP

GWPGWP

GWP

GWP

How is the industry responding? Refrigerant producers are developing new refrigerants:

Near zero ODP, very low GWP, energy efficient & safe

Commercial availability began in 2015

Equipment manufacturers are analyzing new refrigerants:

Energy efficient, safe & low emissions

Equipment availability by 2015 - 2022

© 2008 Trane, a business of Ingersoll Rand.

High Pressure (R-22/R-410a)

R-32 (GWP=685/716)

• 2L flammable

R-32 blends (GWP= 400/600)

. 2L flammable

Medium Pressure (R-134a)

R-1234yf (GWP<10) - Automobile

• Expensive, significant efficiency loss

• 2L flammable

R-1234ze (GWP<10) - Chillers

• Moderate price

• 2L flammable

Blends (GWP= 500/650) – non flammable

Low Pressure (R-123)

, R-1233 zd(E) (GWP<10) - Chillers

. Moderate price

. Non-flammable

Blends (GWP= 170/200) – non flammable

Projected ReplacementsCONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY INFORMATION OF TRANE

Refrigerant Safety Classifications ASHRAE 34 & Proposed ISO 817

2L class key to use of low GWP HFOs

• Flammability– Class 1, non-flammable most refrigerants used today, like R-22, R-134a, R123, 410a, 407C– Class 2L, new class slightly flammable refrigerants <10 cm/sec burning velocity, most new HFO’s, R32– Class 2, more flammable, R152– Class 3, explosive, like propane

OLD 1st. Generation 2nd. Generation

CFC-11 HCFC-123 R-1233zd(E)

Blends

CFC-12 HFC-134a R-1234yf (auto)

R- 1234ze (chiller)

Blends (chiller)

HCFC-22 HFC- 410a HFC - 32 or Blends

HFC – 407C HFC – 32 or Blends

The Future of HCFCs and HFCs:

R-22, R-123, R-134a, R-410a, and 407C will be available for servicing existing equipment

Cost of current refrigerants will increase

Carbon tax factor: R-22 (1800) vs. R-410a (2000); R-123 (77) vs. R-134a (1430)

New refrigerants will cost 4 to 10 times more than HFCs

25

the future of refrigerants jim wolf global policy associates may 2015

Documents

hcfc cap

production slide

hcfc use

kyoto protocol slide

montreal protocol slide

hcfc refrigerants

hcfc phase

hfcs u