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The future of science, food regulation and dealing with the fear
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD
Martin Cole | Deputy Director of Agriculture and Food
5th March 2019
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Outline
•Global food megatrends and food safety
• Emerging science and impact on food regulation
• Food, the consumer and managing the fear
• Roadmap towards modernisation
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A LESS PREDICTABLE PLANET
HEALTH ON THE MIND
CHOOSEY CUSTOMERS
SMARTER FOOD CHAINS
ONE WORLD
Food and Agribusiness Megatrends
Source(s): CSIRO Futures 2017 Food and Agribusiness A Roadmap for unlocking value-adding growth opportunities for Australia
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So Where Do We Focus For Future Growth?
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CSIRO Futures 2017. Food and Agribusiness: A Roadmap unlocking growth opportunities for Australia
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Traceability and provenance
Food safety and biosecurity
Market intelligence and
access
ENABLER
• Blockchain
• DNA-testing
• Isotope analysis
• Barcoding and image recognition technologies
• Hybrid high pressure processing
• Advanced packaging
• Microwave assisted thermal sterilisation
• Blockchain and bio-sensing
• Sensors and data analytics
• Artificial Intelligence
• E-commerce for perishable products
EXAMPLE S&T SOLUTIONS
Source(s): CSIRO Futures 2017 Food and Agribusiness A Roadmap for unlocking value-adding growth opportunities for Australia
Enablers and the role for technology
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Food Safety: A Global Public Health Issue
• 31 foodborne hazards resulted in 33 million DALYS (Disability Adjusted Life Years) in 2010
– Shows considerable impact of contaminated food
• WHO (2012) – key hazards & risk factors:
– Malaria: 55 million DALYs
– Tuberculosis: 44 million DALYs
– (HIV/AIDS: 92 million DALYs)
Burden of FBD at 33 million DALYsof similar magnitude to at least 2 of Africa’s biggest
infectious diseases
Ministerial level
Lucia Anelich
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7
Jane McGrath "10 Costly Food Recalls" 12 March 2009.HowStuffWorks.com. <http://money.howstuffworks.com/10-food-recalls.htm> 20 November 2016
1992 E.coli Hamburgers 100s cases, 4 deaths >$160 million
1996 E.coli Apple juice 10s cases 1 death >$12 million
1998 Listeria sliced meats 100s cases, 21 deaths >$100 million
2006 E.coli Spinach, 100s cases 3 deaths, $350 million
2007 Salmonella peanut butter 600 cases, no deaths $133 million
2007 Melamine pet foods 14 pet deaths >$74 million
Salmonella nottomatoes, $250 million
Salmonella peanutproducts
600 cases, 9 deaths$70 million
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Food Safety a top concern to Chinese Public 2015
8 |
Source(s):USCBC 2016 Food Safety in China; Pew Research Center 2015 China Report
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Food Safety Scares have led to major reforms at national and international levels
•BSE, dioxin, EFSA, EU•Fresh produce, Peanut Butter, botulism, FSMA, US•Contaminated beef, slice meats, Safe Food for Canadians, Canada•Fake foods, microbial and chemical contamination, FSL, China
New Risk Management Framework, ICMSF/CODEX
Emergence of Private Standards
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Production & Primary Handling Processing & Packaging Distribution & Shelf-life
Minimizing initial levels Reducing
levels
Minimizing an increase in levels
Minimum Standards
Water managementChoice of fertilizerSanitation of equipmentRapid coolingHygiene of personnelMonitoring
Processing & Washing stepsEnvironmental surveillanceMonitoring
Temperature managementChoice of storage atmosphereShelf-lifeMonitoring
Risk-based use of preventative controls in the production chain of fresh produce
Good Agricultural Practice (GAPs)Good Manufacturing Practice (GMPs)Hazard Analysis Critical Control (HACCP)Performance StandardsGuidelines/Regulations
Testimony before the US House of Representatives
"Food and Drug Administration Globalization Act of 2009”, March 11, 2009 10
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The Omics Revolution and Food Safety R&D
Whole Cell Genomics
TranscriptomicsProteomics Metabolomics
Epigenetics
Metagenomics
Detection of pathogens in mixed cultures
Subtyping; characterization of new and emerging pathogens and transmission routes
Situation-specific phenotypic traits
Characterising response to stress
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Food Safety:In a State of TransformationPrepared by Cornerstone Capital Group for theInvestor Responsibility Research Center Institute July 2016
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Ma
xim
um
Sp
ecif
ic G
row
th R
ate
(h-1
)
Isolate
Behavior and survival: • growth at low temperature
Genomics and Listeria monocytogenes survival
Genomics and informatics: identify genes responsible
More targeted controls
0
100
200
300
3 1 204 121 155 2 9 324 122 120 4 7
Nu
mb
er o
f is
ola
tes
Genotype No.
Australia
Ecology: Australian and global genotypes
Unique Australian genotypes
Epidemiology of genotypes: • clinical vs food sources• not all genotypes clinically relevant• genotypes from meat and fruit overlap with clinical more than dairy
Evidence based regulationIdentify risks
F&N Science and Impact Review 2015_Feeding Megacities | Narelle Fegan14
|(Narelle Fegan and CSIRO Food Safety team)
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http://www.perkinelmer.com/catalog/product/id/lx100952-a
(John DeVries, Medallion Labs, NCFST Annual Meeting 2010)
Enhanced analytical techniques and screening for chemical contaminants
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New Assessment techniques for chemicalcontaminants
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Intervention studies, human biomarkers and Acrylamide
Re-assessment based on epidemiology
Gerhard Eisenbrand
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Foods for 2025 ?
Various sources, Google Images
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Sustainability – Initiatives & Need
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Source(s): CB Insights 2018 The Future Of Protein I www.un.org I WRI 2016 Shifting Diets for a Sustainable Food Future
The Food Gap
Taking into account a growing population and shifting diets, the world will need to produce 69% more food calories in 2050 than we did in 2006.
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Alternative Proteins Landscape
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Source(s): CB Insights 2018 The Future of Protein
• These start-ups are shifting away from animal-based protein sources to develop everything from plant-based burgers to dairy-free cheeses to imitation shrimp, and more.
• Meat and dairy substitutes have seen especially strong momentum in this space
• Startups are disrupting the meat production value chain through the development of high-tech protein products —threatening established players like Tyson, which is an aggressive participant in the alternative protein movement.
• Meat substitute start-ups are not only competing with prepared and frozen meats, but are also creating alternative snacks.
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New Food Processing Technologies
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Microwave
Pulsed Electric Fields
High Pressure
Cool Plasma
Ultrasonics/
Megasonics
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Juices and
beverages
13%
Vegetable
products
34%
Meat products
30%
Seafood and
fish
14%
Other products
9%
Source: Andrew Gibb, Coldpress
High Pressure Technology going mainstream
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New Breeding Technologies
(Allan Green)
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N2NH3
Transformative GM Technologies
Pest-resistant legumes Biofortified foods
Novel oils Fixing Heterosisthrough ApomixisBroad-spectrum
Disease Resistance
Nitrogen-Fixing Plants
Boosting photosynthesis
(John Manners)
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Top trends in digital transformation infood and agriculture sector
• Harmonised food safety information
• Big data analytics
• Rapid detection methods
• Advanced food safety software
• Emerging food safety technological innovations
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(Frost and Sulivan)
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(I)IoT – (Industrial) Internet of Things
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Source(s): F&S 2017 IIoT in Agriculture I Inductive Automation (https://inductiveautomation.com/what-is-iiot)
IoT is a network of intelligent computers, devices, and objects that collect and share huge amounts of data.
The collected data is sent to a central Cloud-based service where it is aggregated with other data and
then shared with end users in a helpful way.
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Supply chain integrity
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Source(s): F&S 2017 IIoT In Agriculture I F&S 2018 Traceable Value Chains and Authentication in the APAC Food Industry - Forecast to 2023 I UN https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs
Ag
Tech
Trac
eab
le
Val
ue
Ch
ain
Farm to Fork – Requires integrating Ag Tech and Traceable Value Chain solutions through IoT.
“On-farm” “Post-harvest”
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CSIRO’s Supply Chain Integrity Digital Plus Domain Platform
BIOLOGICALPROVENANCE
DIGITAL TRACEABILITY
EVENT & PROCESSVERIFICATION
REGULATORYAUTOMATION
PRIVACY/TRUSTMANAGEMENT
… being able to prove the origin of biological product based on nuclear and elements . Eg. this is not Australian meat.
National Impact• Strong proof of origin• Fraud prevention & verification• Aust Brand value reinforcement
Enabling Science• Nuclear & molecular profiles• Isotopic & element (soil/water)
… connecting physical and digital products. Eg. identifiers to enable digital traceability.
National Impact• Industry efficiency gains• Improved competitiveness• Product differentiation • Decommoditisation
Enabling Science• Cyberphysical – IoT/signaling• Optics/patterns/ML & AI
…. making global standards for trade (GS1-EPCIS) more accessible and trustworthy
National Impact• Reduce complexity of business• Improved industry efficiency • More competitive trade partner
Enabling Science• Cryptographic engineering• Blockchain and process oriented
dependability
…. automated compliance linking digital laws/rules with process events.
National Impact• Reduced regulatory burden• Cost savings and efficiency• Ease of doing business• Industry competitiveness
Enabling Science• Legal informatics/semantics• AI and ML
… protecting data disclosures –enabling people/business to share data insight without releasing sensitive information.
National Impact• Reduced privacy concerns• Improved access to industry
data• Enhanced trust in government
Enabling Science• Partial homomorphic
encryption• AI/ML
Supply Chain Integrity Challenge - Impact Analysis and Strategy (CSIRO, Data61)
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thumpandwhip.com
Daily Mail.co.uk
Food Safety & Outrage
http://www.welt.de/vermischtes/weltgeschehen/article13467030/An-der-5800-Euro-Ampulle-haengt-die-Hoffnung.html
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Social media and the food consumer
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(Andreas Duenser and team)
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Consumer sentiment before & after“needles in strawberries”
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Before During
Shortly after After
(Andreas Duenser and team)
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The Public, Science and Technology
(Google Images)
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Learning from others, US
“...the most sweeping reform of ourfood safety laws in more than 70 years...” – FDA
• Involves creation of a new food safety system
• Broad prevention mandate and accountability
• New system of import oversight
• Emphasizes partnerships
• Emphasizes farm-to-table responsibility
• Developed through broad coalition
Food Safety Modernization Act
(Katie Swanson, ICMSF)
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Learning from others, NZ
33 |
(Nigel French, NZFSSRC)
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National Food Safety in transition
• Foodborne illness reduction strategy
•National traceability project
• Food export task force
• Food safety ‘modernisation’
34 |
http://www.health.gov.au/internet/fr/publishing.nsf/Content/3139DD4B7DF3E23ACA25822F0004BFDD/$File/AusFIRS18-22CD.pdf
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Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards
Towards a National Food Data Roadmap
Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6135 |
• Unlocking public/private data• Harmonizing data across
sectors & value chain.• Multi-purpose, QA, Regtech,
traceability, biosecurity• Links to other industry
sectors, banks, insurance
For example …..
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Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards
Towards a National Food Data Roadmap
Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6136 |
• Enhanced access and sharing of sensitive data through privacy preserving techniques
• Whole genome sequencing of foodborne pathogens fingerprinting
• Data sharing results in improvement in food safety
• Management of litigation risk to industry and market access for international food trade
For example …..
Stage 2: Sensitive & private data
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Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards
Towards a National Food Data Roadmap
Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6137 |
• Development of shared digital infrastructures (public/private) creates new innovations and markets
• Supports SMEs seeking export• Industry monitoring systems
supporting change in industry• Better management of toxic
data risks
For example …..
Stage 2: Sensitive & private data
Stage 3: Smart digital infrastructure
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Stage 1: Basic interoperability standards
Towards a National Food Data Roadmap
Enhancing Australia’s world-class agricultural traceability systems| CSIRO\Data6138 |
• Moving from inspection to verification
• Efficient food export processes and unlocking of new markets
• Linking physical world with computer based systems
• Proactive rather than reactive systems in food recall scenarios
For example …..
Stage 2: Sensitive & private data
Stage 3: Smart digital infrastructure
Stage 4: Continuous compliance
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Key elements to consider
• ‘one health’ surveillance and monitoring/early warning system
• co-ordinated food safety research program involving government, academia and industry collaboration
• food data road map for digital transformation
• food traceability framework
• collaborative regulatory review and modernisation program
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A national……
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Dr Martin ColeDeputy Director of Agriculture and Food
t +61 2 9490 8465E [email protected] www.csiro.au
AGRICULTURE AND FOOD
Thanks to:Many contributors from CSIRO & ICMSF