the future of social networks 1204575046606033 5[1]
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The Future Of Social NetworksCharlene LiVice President & Principal AnalystCo-author of GroundswellForrester ResearchMarch 4, 2008
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2Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
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3Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
They are online with their social networks
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4Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
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5Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Theme
Social networks will be like air.
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6Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Components of social networks
Profile
Relationships
Activities
Business model
Universal identity
A single social graph
Social context for activities
Social influence defines marketing value
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7Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
My multiple identities
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8Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Universal identity
Mobile number
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9Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Universal identity foundations
• Federation (OpenID approach)
• A few major players will serve as major federation focal points
» Yahoo!, Microsoft, Google, Plaxo, etc.
• All players must realize that they can grow the market faster/better by working together
» Data Portability Group is the beginning
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10Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web“We publicly assert that all users of the social web are entitled to certain fundamental rights, specifically:
•Ownership of their own personal information, including:
» their own profile data
» the list of people they are connected to
» the activity stream of content they create;
•Control of whether and how such personal information is shared with others; and
•Freedom to grant persistent access to their personal information to trusted external sites.”
- Authored by Joseph Smarr, Marc Canter, Robert Scoble, and Michael Arringtonhttp://blog.broadbandmechanics.com/2007/09/a-bill-of-rights-for-users-of-the-social-web
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11Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
My Facebook social graph
MissingColleagues
ParentsExtended familySchool parents
NeighborsBabysitter
Walking group
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12Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
My real social graph is much more complex
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13Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Let’s end the insanity
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14Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Relationships today are explicit – and a pain
Plaxo
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15Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
New “entrants” will challenge the incumbents
Millions of regular users
Search & deep content
Ad and content networks
Relationship maps
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16Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Relationship mapping will be automatic and permission-based
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17Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
What people do today on social networks
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18Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Dave has a nice book review on Facebook
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19Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
But it would be more helpful on Amazon
“See friends’ reviews”
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20Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Search based on what my friends finds
relevant
See which of my friends owns a Focus – and what they think of
itCompare daily portfolio performance to friends’
Elevate stories tagged by friends –
anywhere
How Yahoo! could incorporate social networks
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21Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
The under-rated value of networks
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22Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Endorsement value depends on your network
• Your authority on the specific topic
• Your network’s interest and authority on the topic
• The trust level among your network on the topic
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23Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
The future business model for social networks
• Marketers will pay to reach and influence valuable
• Each person will have their own “personal CPM”*
• Social networks will compete to have the best experience for high-influence individuals
* From Marian Salzman, JWT
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24Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Walled garden
services
Portal aggregators
Evolution of open platforms
1993 1999 2003 2008-9 2013
Search freedom
Data portability
Ubiquitous social networks
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25Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Recommendations
• Create linkages between services based on individually-controlled identity federation
• Compete on creating the most compelling social experience, not social graph lock-in
• Develop social applications that have meaning
• Integrate social networks into existing activities
• Design business models that reflect the value created by people’s social networks
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26Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
Charlene Li
+1 650.581.3833
www.forrester.com
groundswell.forrester.com
Thank you