The Future of the “New” The Future of the “New” Europe and its PopulationEurope and its Population

Francesco C. Billari Università Bocconi

in collaboration with Carlo Altomonte

Università BocconiJune 23, 2005

Outline of the talk

• EU and its enlargements: how many Europeans?

• The Social Agenda 2005-2010

• Age structure and sustainability

• Why is the EU population ageing?

• Key references

1957

1973

1986

1981

1995The EU

enlargements

Luxembourg Group - 1998

Helsinki Group - 1999

May 2004

Turkey (?)

2007-2009

The New Europe: Schengen

Countries in the Schengen area, not EU Member States and not Candidate Countries

EU Member States not in the Schengen area

Candidate Countries

EU Member States in the Schengen area

Date of entry Countries Total EU population at

the date (000) Belgium France Germany Italy Luxembourg

1957

The Netherlands

166.648

Denmark Ireland 1973 United Kingdom

255.990

1981 Greece 271.201 Portugal

1986 Spain

321.658

(1991) Germany (territories of the former GDR)

344.077

Austria Finland 371.590 1995 Sweden Cyprus Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Malta Poland Slovak Republic

2004

Slovenia

456.863

Bulgaria Croatia 2007-09 Romania

490.817 (2004)

? Turkey 559817 (2004)

The Lisbon Strategy and the Social Agenda

• Heads of State and Government met in Lisbon (2000). Aim is to make the EU “the most dynamic and competitive knowledge-based economy in the world”

• 2005 under the “revamped” Lisbon strategy for employment and growth: Social Agenda with two key priorities:– Employment– Fighting poverty and equal opportunities

The Social Agenda: employment

• Creating a European labour market, through enabling workers to take pension and social security entitlements with them when they work in a different Member States and by establishing an optional framework for collective bargaining across frontiers; the Commission will also examine transition periods for workers from new Member States;

• Getting more people into better jobs, particularly through the European Youth Initiative and supporting women in (re-)entering the labour market;

• Updating labour law to address needs created by new forms of work, i.e. particular short term contracts; a new health and safety strategy;

• Managing the process of restructuring through the social dialogue.

The Social Agenda: poverty and equal opportunities

• Analysing the impact of ageing populations and the future of relations between the different generations, by launching a Green Paper on demography

• Supporting the Member States in reforming pensions and health care and tackling poverty;

• Tackling discrimination and inequality; the Commission will examine minimum income schemes in the Member States and set out a policy approach for tackling discrimination, particularly against ethnic minorities such as the Roma;

• Fostering equal opportunities between women and men, for example by setting up a gender institute;

• Clarifying the role and characteristics of social services of general interest.

The Social Agenda: poverty and equal opportunities

• Analysing the impact of ageing populations and the future of relations between the different generations, by launching a Green Paper on demography

• Supporting the Member States in reforming pensions and health care and tackling poverty;

• Tackling discrimination and inequality; the Commission will examine minimum income schemes in the Member States and set out a policy approach for tackling discrimination, particularly against ethnic minorities such as the Roma;

• Fostering equal opportunities between women and men, for example by setting up a gender institute;

• Clarifying the role and characteristics of social services of general interest.

Source: Altomonte and Nava (2005), Chapter 5 as elaborated from Morrisson and Murtin (2004).

COHESION

Indicators of total inequality in EU-15

9.212.413.820.134.9Poverty (20$ a day)

1.11.11.02.210.4Absolute poverty (10$/day)

0.0070.0080.0080.0090.0160.017- Across-countries

0.1520.1520.1420.1450.1300.152- Within-country

0.1590.1600.1500.1540.1460.169Theil Index

0.3080.3090.3030.3010.2990.32Gini Coefficient

1.861.861.731.771.732.01Top 5% / Bottom 20%

200019981995199019801970Tot. inequality indicator

0.8550.1900.2550.2200.160Total inequality

0.513-0.0850.0640.008“between-country” inequality

0.342-0.1700.1560.152“within-country” inequality

World (1995)

USA (1995)

EU27Turkey (1998)

EU27 (1998)

EU15 (1998)

Inequality Index(Theil index)

Source: Altomonte and Nava (2005), Chapter 5 as elaborated from Morrisson and Murtin (2004).

COHESION

Inequalities in the enlarged EU vs. the USA and the world

Age structure and sustainability

• The age structure of a population at a given time t is the function of:– Fertility and mortality between about t-100 and t– Immigration and emigration between about t-100

and t

• Moreover, the age structure of a population carries what is defined as ‘population momentum’: those who will be aged 40 in 20 years are already born…

An example of a ‘young’ population in the Mediterranean

An example of a ‘mature’ population

An example of a forecast‘aged’ population