the future of the sugarcane industry in theno. of operating sugar mills -total milling capacity 29...
TRANSCRIPT
The Future of the Sugarcane Industry in the
Philippines: Prospects in the World Market
Order of Presentation:
1) What is the future of the industry
2) Where we are now
3) Challenges and Activities
Sugar
Fuel Ethanol
Power Cogeneration
THE FUTURE ….What we Envision for the next 15 years!
Sugarcane 2027
75 TC/Ha
80% Capacity Utilization of Sugar Mills
10 Bioethanol Distilleries
Specialty sugars, biowater,
bioplastics, etc.
500 MW Power Generation
Capacity (Mills & Distilleries)
60,000 farmers
422,384 hectares of
sugarcane plantations
57 TC/Ha
28 Sugar Mills + 14 Sugar Refineries
66% capacity
utilization of mills
4 Bioethanol Distilleries
Produced 25% of mandated market
What are the challenges for the next 15 years???
Crop Year 2011-2012
Industry Contribution to PHL economy
Area Planted
P70B annually
422,500 Hectares
No. Farmers 62,000
No. of Operating Sugar Mills
-Total Milling Capacity
29
185,000 Tons Cane / Day
No. of Operating Sugar Refineries
-Total Refining Capacity
14
8,000 MT/Day
No. of Bioethanol Distilleries
-Total Annual Rated Capacity
4
133 million liters
VISAYAS (18 mills + 7 refineries
+ 3 distilleries)
MAP OF PHILIPPINE SUGAR MILLS & BIOETHANOL DISTILLERIES
LUZON
(7 mills + 4 refineries + 1 distillery)
NEGROS
MINDANAO (4 mills + 3 refineries)
TARLAC
Batangas Sugar
PAMPANGA
CAGAYAN
ILOILO
CAPIZ
BUKIDNON
DAVAO DEL SUR
Davao
NORTH COTABATO
NEGROS
ORIENTAL
Lopez Sa
Tolong
AGUSAN DEL NORTE
BOHOL
LANAO DEL NORTE
MASBATE
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
MISAMIS ORIENTAL
SAMAR
SURIGAO DEL NORTE
SURIGAO DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA
DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA
DEL SUR
SOUTH
COTABATO
PALAWAN
Legend
MANILA
Sugar mills
Mills with annexed refinery
Major sugar ports
SAN CARLOS
5,000 HECTARES
Green Future Innovations
CAGAYAN / ISABELA
11,000 HECTARES
Bioethanol production areas Pampanga Bioenergy
7,000 HECTARES
PANAY
BATANGAS
Bioethanol target areas
Canlaon Alcogreen
5,000 HECTARES
Bioethanol Distilleries
CAVITE
Cavite Biofuels
7,000 HECTARES
N
S
E W
Distribution of Philippine Cane Areas, CY 2011-2012
Luzon
Mindanao
Panay
Eastern Visayas
Negros17,0
00 h
as.
Total Cane Area – 420,000 hectares
No. of Farms
Cane Area,… -
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
0 0.01 -
5.00
5.01 -10.00
10.01 -25.00
25.01 -50.00
50.01 -100.00
100.01& above
No. of FarmsCane Area, Hectares
24%
12 %
15 %
15 %
16 %
18
%
Philippine Sugarcane Areas for the Past 10 Crop Years
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
420,000420,000
395,381
385,662
392,567
398,872
388,003
377,182
391,552 391,451
383,745
Area, Hectares
Crop Years
Philippine Cane & Sugar Production for the Past 10 Crop Years
Million MT
Crop Years
Philippine Farm Productivity for the Past 10 Crop Years
World* MT
Asia* MT
Philippines, MT (CY 2011-12)
Production 150,103,920 49,031,641 2,244,131
Consumption 157,857,628 68,104,405 2,029,866
Exports (US Quota & World Market)
53,219,120
9,193,860
533,100
Imports 53,217,703 25,950,199 0
Stock Balances 66,074,095 21,725,967 246,797
* Source : 2010 figures taken from the 2011 ISO report
Philippine sugar has prospects in the Asian market considering supply-demand gaps in the region
Bioethanol Production, Liters
Year
TOTAL Production
(Million Liters)
Mandated Bioethanol
Blend
Mandated Volume
(Million Liters)
2008 0.368 Voluntary None
2009 23.11 5 % 208
2010 9.89 5 % 219
2011 4.14 10 % 461
2012* 12.00 (estimates as of
May 2012)
10 % 486
In 2012, around 486 million liters bioethanol is required under the 10% mandated
blend, however, only 4 distilleries are operational with a combined annual rated
capacity of 133 million liters.
1
2
3
4
5
Regulatory Environment & Initiatives
Policy support on the power generation efforts of sugar mills thru the National Renewable Energy Board (NREB) and investments in bioethanol thru the National Biofuel Board (NBB)
Identification of potential areas for expansion; Breeding of good-ratooning varieties; Technology generation and dissemination
Establishment of a better crop estimate system and farm inventory through the application of GPS / GIS / remote sensing technologies & farm enumeration up to the barangay level
Block farming program through the National Convergence Initiative
SRA Regulatory Governance – Sugar production allocation and classification; Certification of plantation areas to be used for bioethanol production
Sugar
Fuel Ethanol
Power Cogeneration
Sugarcane Industry Roadmap (Crop Year 2010-11 to 2015-16)
Indicators / CY 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
A. Production
1. Sugar (MT) 1,960,000 2,068,206 2,263,281 2,464,458 2,671,800 2,885,371
2. Bioethanol (Liters) 14,356,299 14,356,299 97,313,500 196,849,019 278,859,004 304,487,125
3. Sugarcane (MT) 20,000,000 21,028,586 23,990,641 27,348,242 30,625,955 33,134,319
B. Area (Hectares) 385,401 387,311 409,451 435,635 457,544 465,704
C. Self-sufficiency
1. Sugar
% of Domestic Demand 92 95 102 109 116 123
% of Total Demand 85 88 94 101 107 114
2. Bioethanol, % of mandated requirement 12 11 27 44 56 57
Sugarcane Industry Roadmap (Crop Year 2010-11 to 2015-16)
1/ Assuming the price of bioethanol is influenced by sugar price 2/ Agricultural workers only
D. National Yield
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16
1. MT Sugarcane/Ha, Average 51.9 54.3 58.6 62.8 66.9 71.2 MT Sugarcane/Ha., High 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0
2. LKG/MT Cane, Average 1.96 1.99 2.01 2.04 2.07 2.10 LKG/MT Cane, High 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50
E. Farmers' Income (Pesos / Hectare/Year) - @ Planters' share of 65%; @ P 1,700/LKG Sugar 1/
1.'@ Prod'n Cost, P70,000/Ha., average 42,383 49,381 60,131 71,519 83,115 95,104 2.'@ Prod'n Cost, P100,000/Ha., high 43,650 62,435 82,325 103,320 125,420 148,625
F. Jobs Generated
Total Number of workers (1.5 jobs/ha) 578,102 580,967 614,177 653,453 686,316 698,556 No. of jobs generated 2/ - 2,865 33,210 39,276 32,864 12,240
1. Investments in Sugar Mills on Power Generation = 15 mills X P 2 B each = P 50 B
2. Investments in the installation of bioethanol distilleries = 6 distilleries X P 3 B = P 18 B
3. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Bioethanol from Sugarcane conducted by the Institute of Energy Economics Japan showed that investments in bioethanol fuel production will contribute
about 6-12 % of the GDP and it will also contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases 4. Potential Job Generation = 53,300 additional employment
• assuming 50,000 hectares of expansion areas @ 1 job generated / hectare
• power plants @ 20 jobs / upgraded mill X 15 • Bioethanol distilleries @ 500 jobs / distillery X 6
