The Future of Warfare: Where Do We Stand?

William RenoNorthwestern University

reno@northwestern.edu, www.willreno.org

Studying change in warfare: Focus on components or logics?

1. Actors2. Goals3. Methods4. Resources

What changes the logics of violence and what are the consequences of these changes for the components of warfare?

Past Futures of Warfare: Dar es Salaam, 1965: Why these particular actors, goals, methods, resources?US activist Cora Weiss with African liberation movement leaders. Back from left: Pascoal Mocumbi, Frente de Libertação de Moçambique [FRELIMO]; Eduardo Mondlane, President of FRELIMO; Weiss; Amilcar Cabral, President of the Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde [PAICG]. [African activist archive, MSU]

Past Futures of WarfareNarratives of conflict [Solidarity Poster of Africa’s Future, c.1970, from Inkworks Press, Berkeley, CA]

Present futures of warfare – What has changed?

• Networks: New or just more intense versions of old ones?

• Cultural narratives: These have always played roles in conflicts, but more now?

• Communication: A qualitative or a quantitative change?

• Internal character of state authority:

Present Futures of Warfare: Incorporating more networks, such as cocaine trafficking[From David Blair, “Special Report: West Africa welcomes Latin America’s drug barons,” Telegraph, 3 Dec 2008.]

Present futures: Shifts in global narratives, new ways of expressing identitiesFreetown, Sierra Leone street scene: West Side Boys & Tupac imagery

Telecommunications: Mobile phone service reaches everywhere (Batkano, Sierra Leone in the 2000s.)

State authority & symmetrical irregular warfare

Sierra Leone highway in 1990 Sierra Leone highway in 2013

STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDANSTATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN

LEGENDThe locations/areas on this map are approximate. Names, sectors, locations,

alignements, affiliation are to be verified.

ADONGFORCE

John Mankoer100 (413)

17

DINNIFORCES

Hassan Doyak200 (500)

32

MOBILEFORCES

Vincent Kuany500 (866)

10

BALKOKPOP. DEF.

Hassan Doyak200 (500)

30

KALTOKFORCES

Gabriel Mding Fon50 (250)

31

CHAYOTFACTION

Saddam Chayot400 (950)

21/22

NASIRPOP. DEF.

John Jok100 (300)

20

CHOL GAGAGROUP

Hassan Doyak100 (500)

23

NASIRGROUP

Gordon Kong400 (3500)

7

AKOBOFORCES

Timothy Juoc300 (650)

34

SSLM/AGabriel Yoal Doc

500 (700)33

PIBORDEF. FORCEIsmael Konyi1000 (4000)

40/41

SIMONGATWICH

Simon Gatwich150 (2000)

35

BORGROUP

Kelia Deng Kelly100 (230)

46

BOYA/DIDINGAFORCES

Mahamed Losek 50 (180)

47

LAFONFORCES

Kamal R. Beligo 50 (100)

48

EDF-SSDF(EDF II)

Fabiano Odongi500 (2850)

43

TOPOSAFORCES

Chief Lokipapa 50 (600)

44

W. EQUATORIADEF. FORCE

xxx50 (150)

50

BAR EL JEBELFORCES

Paulino Lonyombe500 (950)

45

W. EQUATORIAPOP. DEF.

Steward Soroba50 (100)

49

MUNDARIFORCES

Clement Wani400 (4900)

39

JEBELFORCES II

John Both Tap500 (1350)

12

DOLEIBFORCES

Thomas Mabor100 (1127)

9

NATIONALPEACE FORCE

El Tom El Nur100 (3000)

36

FANGAKFORCES

Gabriel Tang500 (3350)

11

AWEILGROUP

Abdel Bagi200 (1500)

37/38

GADET’SFORCES

Peter Gadet100 (350)

5

SSUM/APaulino Matiep

500 (2500)1

THE UNITEDFACTION

James Othow500 (2116)

14

PARIANGFORCES

Samuel Mayiek300 (1500)

4

MABANFORCES

Musa Birima50 (250)

29

AKOKAFORCE

Thon Amum100 (410)

15

ALLAK DENGFACTIONAllak Deng500 (150)

27

ABOYGROUP

Paul Aboy100 (300)

8

MELUTPEACE FORCE

William deng2000 (300)

26

SOBATFORCE

Simon Yei300 (500)

19

MUSA DOULAFACTIONMusa Doula

500 (300)28

RENKPEACE FORCE

Chol Al Ahmar100 (400)

24

CHOL LEWISFACTIONChol Lewis200 (1227)

25

SSIM/APeter Dor400 (1900)

3

STATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDANSTATUS – OTHER ARMED GROUPS – SOUTH SUDAN

(K-7)

Aligned with SPLA.Aligned with SAF.

Reportedly aligned with SPLA. To be verified.Mainly aligned with SAF. Some sub-units aligned with SPLA.

Part of SSDF (prior to the Juba declaration). Associated, but not officially an integrated part of SSDF. Sometimes referredto as Central Equatoria Defence Forces. SSDF originators (Khartoum Peace Agreement).Originated from Anyanya 2

Mainly emerged after the Juba declaration. Splinter groups/re-hatted PDF. Originated from SPLA

SAF garrisons/locations. SAF/OAG/PDF/MI-elements often co-located.SPLA deployment areas/locations.

SABRI ACHOLFORCES

Sabin Achol100 (445)

16

SSDF – ABYEYThomas Thiel

50 (600)

6

What is a “network” in the context of a state that has very weak bureaucracies? [And what is on Riek Machar’s reading table?]

The uses of an AK-47 in the mind of the artistThe puzzle of why narratives in really awful places remain so parochial: [The wall of a medical clinic, Lofa County, Liberia during the LURD offensive, 2003]

New social structures of Violence: Slightly demobilized RUF, Sierra LeoneObserve the attire: Distinguishing units and commander position and associations by footwear, 1999

As go states, so goes the future of Warfare.Think of wars & states: Where one finds ‘Conventional’ states, one tends to find armed groups with bureaucratic hierarchies. Where modernist visions of states fail, so goes the vision of unified armed groups.

The End: ECOMOG position, MonroviaSometime back in the ‘90s