the future of work, workers, and technology: the...
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THE GREAT UNCERTAINTIES
Independent Economist
THE FUTURE OF WORK, WORKERS, AND TECHNOLOGY:
+
JED KOLKO
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It’s a catastrophe! No, it’s utopia!
Jobs will be Uber-ized into gigs!
Robots will eat all the jobs!
Technology will free us from work!
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The future of work
1. Tectonic shifts
2. The structure of work is uncertain
3. Effect of automation on jobs is uncertain
Deep shifts and great uncertainties
• The aging workforce
• The decline of dynamism
• Shift to non-work income
>
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Tectonic shift #1
Percentage of workforce age 55+
11.9%
15.6%
21.7%24.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1994 2004 2014 2024(projected)
The aging workforce
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Tectonic shift #2
Less job-hopping by young workers
Less job creation and job destruction by firms
Fewer long-distance moves
Why? Maybe:
• Regulations
• Housing costs
• Declining social trust
• Responsibilities for care
The decline of dynamism
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Tectonic shift #3
Wages and salaries, % of total personal income
Shift to non-work income
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
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The future of work
1. Tectonic shifts
2. The structure of work is uncertain
3. Effect of automation on jobs is uncertain
Deep shifts and great uncertainties
>
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New structure of work: not just “gig economy”
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
1995 2005 2015
Percentage of employed workers in “alternative work arrangements”(Katz & Krueger, 2016)
Online Gig Economy >
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For traditional breadwinners, less security
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1983 1996 2004 2014
25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1983 1996 2004 2014
25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64
Median years at current job: men Median years at current job: women
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The future of work
1. Tectonic shifts
2. The structure of work is uncertain
3. Effect of automation on jobs is uncertain
Deep shifts and great uncertainties
>
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Most at risk: middle-skill “routine” jobs
Occupation Projected change, 000’s, 2014-2024
Bookkeeping and accounting -148.7
Fast food cooks -80.4
Mail carriers -78.1
Executive secretaries and admins -44.6
Farmworkers and laborers -42.9
Sewing machine operators -41.7
Tellers -40.0
Mail sorters and processors -39.7
Cutting, punching, and press machine operators -39.5
Switchboard operators -37.0
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Yet: past tech disruption hasn’t eliminated work. Will this time be different?
Employment/population ratio, age 25-54, %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Men
Women
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How to approach the future of work
Focus 10-20 years out
Scenarios, not predictions
Work touches everything
We’re all in it together