Directorate General of Electricity

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources

The Future Trend of Indonesia’s Electricity Sector Development

Presented at:

74TH INDONESIA NATIONAL ELECTRICITY DAY’S CONFERENCE

“The Electrical Power Industry in The Era of Industry 4.0, Facing The Challenges

of The Energy Transition Toward Non-Fossil Energy”

Jakarta, 9 October 2019

By:

Ir. Jisman P. Hutajulu, MM

Director of Electricity Program Supervision

Directorate General of Electricity

Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Republic of Indonesia

Outlines

2

3 Trend of Electricity in Indonesia – Current Status

4 Outlook of Electricity Sector Development

Policy in the Electricity Sector

5

6

1 The Future Trend of Electricity System

Conclusion

Government Efforts to Anticipate Changes in

Trends in the Electricity Sector

The Future Trend of Electricity System1

The Future Energy System will provide additional roles for the grid and incorporate many customer technologies.

Source : World Economic Forum 2017 : The Future of Electricity New Technologies Transforming the Grid Edge

THE FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM - 1

FUTURE ENERGY SYSTEM – 2

Smart local grids, linking a diverse set of distributed resources across different sectors,

may emerge as main pillar of future energy systems.

THE FUTURE ENERGY FOR GENERATING ELECTRICITY

Source : IEA, 2018. Dr. Fatih Biroi. World Energy Outlook 2018. Oslo. Nowqay, 20 November 2018

Renewables make up two-thirds of all capacity additions worldwide to 2040, capturing

70% of power plant investment.

Policy in the Electricity Sector2

8

INDONESIA’S ENERGY TRILEMMA

The basic philosophy of developing the electricity sector in Indonesia must be carried

out in a balanced manner between Energy Security, Energy Equity, and Environmental

Sustainability.

Increase accessibility/

Electrification ratio.

Additional Capacity.

Increase

acceptability (reliability, quality

and eco-friendly).

National

Electricity

Sustainability.

Affordable of

electricity price.

Source: World Energy Council

9

The policy direction of the development of electricity supply in line with the nationaldevelopment objectives in the electricity sector is to ensure the availability of sufficient quantityof electricity, good quality, and reasonable price.

Policy Direction for Power Generation

• Maintaining the balance of Supply-demand and system reliability;

• Reducing the cost of power generation by developing gas well head and mine-mouth based power plant;

• NRE portion ≥ 23% by 2025;

• The development of CFPP must be using Clean Coal Technology (CCT);

• The development of GFPP/CCPP/MG/CCMG must be using platform in small system;

• Priority for PLN to develop power generation for load follower and peaker.

Policy Direction for Transmission

• Transmission network must be Open Access;

• Interconnection development inter systems and inter-island;

• Transmission planning should able to anticipate capacity increase 30 years ahead;

• Meets the N-1 reliability criteria;

• The ASEAN Power Grid should concern the national interest.

POLICY DIRECTION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY (RUKN 2019-2038) – 1/2

10

Policy Direction for Sub Station

•1 sub station for each district/municipal or if add transformer if load capacity has reached 70%;

•GIS should be developed for areas with limited land;

•Providing IBT back up 1 phase for each location of Extra High Voltage Sub Station and 1 phase per-type for each province for conventional Extra High Voltage Sub Station

Policy Direction for Distribution

•Distribution network must be Open Access;

•Improved voltage, SAIDI and SAIFI;

•Reducing losses and rehabilitation of old networks;

Policy Direction for Rural Electricity

•Priority to helping community groups who cannot afford;

•Indigenous energy potential needs to be prioritized;

•The development of Off-grid system for remote areas.

Policy Direction for Smart Grid

By 2020, smart grid should be implemented in some areas in Java-Bali system and gradually applied to systems outside Java-Bali to boost the NRE portion.

POLICY DIRECTION OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLY (RUKN 2019-2038) – 2/2

11

Trend of Electricity in Indonesia – Current Status

3

1212

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester

1 2019

PLT EBT Lainnya 29 29 46 69 768 1,385 1,427 1,780 1,831 1,913 2,090 2,120

PLTP 1,069 1,206 1,206 1,226 1,336 1,398 1,403 1,438 1,533 1,808 1,948 1,948

PLTA/M/MH 4,785 4,802 4,822 4,925 5,128 5,181 5,207 5,277 5,621 5,658 5,742 5,800

PLTD 2,508.60 2,597.08 3,073.84 3,250.10 3,361.98 3,562.21 3,637 3,824 3,979 4,396 4,631 4,669

PLTG/GU/MG 10,136.97 10,747.01 11,019.40 12,458.64 14,117.19 14,552.34 14,885 15,890 17,070 17,660 18,926 19,428

PLTU 12,634.08 13,070.58 13,370.58 16,750.58 20,740.58 22,274.58 23,858 26,448 28,352 30,768 31,587 31,833

Total 31,162 32,451 33,537 38,680 45,452 48,353 50,418 54,658 58,386 62,203 64,925 65,797

31,162 32,451 33,537

38,680

45,452 48,353

50,418 54,658

58,386 62,203

64,925 65,797

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

GE

NE

RA

TIO

N C

AP

AC

ITY

(MW

)TREND OF NATIONAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)

• Conventional CFPP

• Type of RE (hydro,

geothermal, &

Biomass)

• Introduce CCT technology (SC & USC) in

Java Bali system

• Conventional CFPP in outside Java Bali

• Type of RE (hydro, geothermal, &

Biomass)

• Introduce VRE

(wind & solar)

1313

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester

1 2019

PLTSa - - - - - - 14.00 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65 15.65

PLTS 2.72 2.72 3.02 3.53 10.81 18.65 22.74 33.36 43.12 50.90 60.19 78.86

PLT Bio 25.44 25.44 41.44 64.44 755.48 1,364.67 1,388.67 1,726.01 1,767.44 1,841.15 1,867.15 1,867.15

PLTB 0.86 0.86 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 143.51 154.31

PLTP 1,068.80 1,205.80 1,205.80 1,225.80 1,335.80 1,398.30 1,403.30 1,438.30 1,533.30 1,808.30 1,948.30 1,948.30

PLTA/M/MH 4,784.97 4,801.69 4,821.89 4,925.43 5,128.40 5,181.09 5,206.81 5,277.46 5,620.86 5,657.91 5,742.15 5,799.83

PLT Hybrid - - - - 0.06 0.08 0.08 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58 3.58

Total 5,883 6,037 6,074 6,221 7,232 7,964 8,037 8,496 8,985 9,379 9,781 9,868

5,883 6,037 6,074 6,221

7,232

7,964 8,037 8,496

8,985 9,379

9,781 9,868

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

KA

PA

SIT

AS

PE

MB

AN

GK

IT (

MW

)TREND OF NATIONAL NRE POWER GENERATION (MW)

• Type of RE (hydro, geothermal, & Biomass) • Introduce

VRE (wind &

solar)

1414

Source: Directorate General of Electricity, MEMR (Status Update 19th August 2019)

*) The nominal installed capacity of national power plants is based on the asset database. Until the end of 2018, the portions of asset ownership are PLN 40,8 GW (62,9%),

PPU 3,6 GW (5,5%), IPP 15 GW (23,1%), DGNREEC asset 0,05 GW (0,1%), Operation License for Own Utilization 5,5 GW (8,4%). Data for year 2018 have been

synchronized with the last IUPTL PLN’s attachment until the end of 2018 and the official letter from DGNREEC, MEMR on June, 11th 2019.

INSTALLED CAPACITY OF NATIONAL POWER GENERATION *)

As of First Semester 2019

15

Outlook of Electricity Sector Development4

16

THE DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF POWER GENERATION UP TO 2028

Source: PLN’s RUPTL 2019-2028

• The total additional capacity of power generation to be built up to 2028 is about of 56.39 GW.

• Coal fired power generation will be still developed in the next 5 years from 2019 and then it will

be gradually reduced.

• Gas fired power generation will be developed relatively constant after 2019.

• Renewable Energy (RE) power generation will be developed relatively constant up to 2024 and

then it will be increased significantly by 2025.

17

DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF NRE POWER GENERATION

Source: PLN’s RUPTL 2019-2028

56,39

GW

56,39

GW

56,39

GW

16,72

GW

18

ENERGY MIX OF POWER GENERATION

Source: PLN’s RUPTL 2019-2028

Oil4.32%

Gas21.12%

Coal61.85%

RE12.71%

Realisasi Target 2025

(RUPTL 2019-2028)

Trend kedepan adalah porsi

Batubara dan BBM dalam energy

mix diturunkan dan Gas dan

EBT ditingkatkan.

Oil0.40%

Gas22.00%

Coal54.60%

RE23.00%

Energy Mix (%) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Oil 4,0 2,9 1,5 0,5 0,5 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4

Gas 21,2 19,3 18,0 18,4 19,6 19,8 22,0 22,0 22,0 22,0

Coal 62,7 65,5 68,2 67,8 66,6 63,7 54,6 54,4 54,4 54,4

Renewable Energy (RE) 11,4 11,7 12,2 13,1 13,2 16,0 23,0 23,2 23,2 23,2

IMPORT 0,6 0,6 0,1 0,1 0,1 - - - - -

BBM (+BBN)6.04%

Gas21.70%

Coal60.28%

RE11.98%

Semester 1

Tahun 2019Tahun 2018

19

Government Efforts to Anticipate Changes in Trends in the Electricity Sector5

20

THE GOVERNMENT ACTION – 1/2

1. Developing electricity infrastructure by utilizing the latest technology (smart grid

and metering) to increase EBT penetration in the PLN system.

According to the 2019-2038 RUKN, in 2020, smart grids have begun to be

implemented in several regions in Java-Bali and gradually applied to systems outside

Java-Bali.

2. Revising the Grid Code to accommodate the usage of intermittent renewable

energy plants (Solar and Wind power).

Revision of the grid code is currently in the process of being finalized and it is expected

to be completed in 2019.

3. Introducing rooftop solar PV for PLN’s customers to encourage increased of

NRE.

Through Ministerial of EMR Regulation No. 49 of 2018 regarding the Use of Roof Solar

Power Generation Systems by PLN’s Consumers, starting January 1, 2019 PLN’s

consumers can install rooftop solar PV, produce their own electricity, and even export it

to PLN. Rooftop solar PV is also Distributed Generation systems development. As of

the first semester of 2019, the number of rooftop solar PV that have been built is total

of 1,059 customers with a total capacity of 3.5 MWp.

21

THE GOVERNMENT ACTION – 2/2

4. Developed Distributed Generation, Micro-grid and Distributed Storage.

PLN is currently conducting a study of installing batteries (as an energy storage

system) in Bali with a capacity of 50 MW / 200 MWh. If this study is feasible, then the

battery becomes an alternative for short-term power shortage mitigation, and can be a

backup for intermittent EBT generators..

5. Introducing electric vehicles.

The Government has issued Presidential Regulation No. 55 of 2019 regarding the

Acceleration of the Battery-Based Electric Motor Vehicle Program for Road

Transportation. As a follow up to Presidential Regulation No. 55 of 2019, the Ministry of

EMR is preparing a Ministerial Regulation regarding Infrastructure of Electricity

Charging Provision and Electricity Tariffs for Battery-Based Electric Motorized Vehicles

which regulates among others the electricity charging station management scheme and

Battery leasing for Battery-based electric motorized vehicles; electricity tariff for

electricity charging station and Private Electric Installation; and safety aspects.

6. Introducing the usage of electric stoves.

Electric stoves have advantages when compared to conventional stoves. The Ministry

of EMR along with PLN are doing campaign for the use of electric stoves to people who

lived in cities.

22

Conclusion6

23

CONCLUSION

• Electricity sector development in Indonesia must be carried out in a balancedmanner between Energy Security, Energy Equity, and Energy Sustainability.

• In the transition period, Indonesia is still developing coal fired power plant in orderto get low cost of power generation production so that the electricity tariff can becompetitive, at the end. However, the development of CFPP should be used CCTtechnology.

• Renewable energy will gradually to be boosted by considering the readiness ofelectricity system, particularly intermittent power generation in order to achieve23% of share of renewable energy by 2025.

• Collaboration between government and stakeholders is indispensable for

successful transformation of electricity sector.

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TREND OF NATIONAL POWER GENERATION – 2/2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Semester…

Persen (%)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester 1

2019

PLTU 40.54 40.28 39.87 43.31 45.63 46.07 47.32 48.39 48.56 49.46 48.65 48.38

PLTG/GU/MG 32.53 33.12 32.86 32.21 31.06 30.10 29.52 29.07 29.24 28.39 29.15 29.53

PLTD 8.05 8.00 9.17 8.40 7.40 7.37 7.21 7.00 6.82 7.07 7.13 7.10

PLTA/M/MH 15.35 14.80 14.38 12.73 11.28 10.72 10.33 9.66 9.63 9.10 8.84 8.81

PLTP 3.43 3.72 3.60 3.17 2.94 2.89 2.78 2.63 2.63 2.91 3.00 2.96

PLT EBTLainnya

0.09 0.09 0.14 0.18 1.69 2.86 2.83 3.26 3.14 3.08 3.22 3.22

PLTU PLTG/GU/MG PLTD

In total capacity, the portion of CFPP is maintained no more than 50%; the portion of Diesel power

plant is suppressed; and the portion of NRE power plant increased although in the last 4 years it

was still around 15%.

2626

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Semester 1 2019

Persen (%)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Semester 1

2019

PLTA/M/MH 81.34 79.54 79.39 79.18 70.91 65.05 64.79 62.12 62.56 60.33 58.71 58.78

PLTP 18.17 19.98 19.85 19.71 18.47 17.56 17.46 16.93 17.06 19.28 19.92 19.74

PLTB 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 1.47 1.56

PLT Bio 0.43 0.42 0.68 1.04 10.45 17.13 17.28 20.32 19.67 19.63 19.09 18.92

PLTS 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.15 0.23 0.28 0.39 0.48 0.54 0.62 0.80

PLTSa - - - - - - 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16

PLT Hybrid - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

PLTA/M/MH PLTP PLTB PLT Bio PLTS PLTSa PLT Hybrid

TREND OF NATIONAL NRE POWER GENERATION – 2/2

In total capacity, the portion of hydro power, geothermal and Biomass still dominates NRE power

generation capacity. But starting in 2018, wind and solar power began to show their portions.

27

ENERGY MIX OF PLN’S POWER GENERATION 2014 – 1ST SEMESTER 2019

• Coal’s share is still dominant in the energy mix of power generation, accounted for more than50% of total. It is because for getting low cost of power generation production so that theelectricity tariff can be competitive.

• Gas’s share is maintaining to be at least 20%.• NRE’s share is encouraged to increase.