Chapter

5 The Absolute Superiority in Future Aviation

China should develop a global nuclear-powered supersonic airliner for

absolute superiority in future aviation. Without need to refuel, the nuclear-powered

aircraft would have great extended range compared to the conventional jet fuel

powered, and it is especially

important for China which

imports 70% of its oil

consumed. Supersonic airliner

could be faster and more

flexible than subsonic one.

Boeing and Airbus which have

monopoly in global market of

airliner manufacture both focus

on subsonic airliner today.

Retired supersonic airliner

Concorde and Tupolev Tu-144 could be prototypes to integrate with nuclear engine

which already tested by America and Soviet in Cold War, as well as engine of

nuclear submarine.

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Chapter 5. The Absolute Superiority in Future Aviation

I. NUCLEAR-POWERED AIRCRAFT —————————————————-- 3

1. Future Nuclear Airliner ———————————————————-— 4

2. Nuclear Aircraft of The United States —————————————— 7

3. Nuclear Aircraft of the Soviet and Russia ———————————-— 9

II. SUPERSONIC AIRLINER

1. Supersonic Airliner Concorde ————————————————— 10

a. Retirement of Concorde ————————————————-- 12

b. Why Retirement? ———————————————————- 13

2. Next Generation Supersonic Airliner ——————————————- 16

2

I. NUCLEAR-POWERED AIRCRAFT

Energy is the most significant challenge for future aviation, especially for

China which imported 70% of its oil consumed. Jet fuel is made from petroleum

primarily, and only 9% of crude oil could be transferred. Fossil energy is expensive

and constraint, but nuclear power provide a feasible solution. Without need to

refuel, the nuclear-powered aircraft would have great extended range compared to

the conventional designs, even almost unlimited range.

China consumes about 12

million barrel oil per day, the third

largest oil consumer behind the

United States and European Union.

However, China has to import its 68%

(2017) oil from Russia, Middle East

and Africa due to its low oil reserve.

Thus it is critical and urgent for China

to develop nuclear power to replace

oil in order to prevent energy crisis. (Chart source: ⽯油对外依存度70%可怕吗？https://

baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1599549775556453471&wfr=spider&for=pc)

Today, subsonic Airbus A380 or Boeing 787 consume jet fuel over 3 liter/100

km per passenger. Supersonic airliner Concorde, which operated in 1976 - 2003,

consume jet fuel 16.7 liter /100 km per passenger which is over 5 times fuel

consumption of subsonic airliner and similar as business jet Gulf-stream G550.

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China DomesticRussiaAngolaSaudi ArabiaIraqOmanIranBrazilVenezuelaKuwaitOther

Fuel Economy ( Liter / 100 km per passenger）

(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_economy_in_aircraft)

1. FUTURE NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT

In 2014, Lockheed-Martin announced that they were working on developing a

small fusion reactor which is about the size of a jet engine and having the potential

to power aircraft and spaceships. They expected it could operate before 2024.

The project began in 2010, and was publicly presently at the Google Solve for X

forum in 2013. Its prototype was planned to be a 100-megawatt reactor measuring

7 by 10 feet (2.1 by 3.0 m) that could fit on the back of a large truck and would be

about one tenth the size of current reactor prototypes. 100 megawatts is enough to

provide power for 80,000 people. A series of prototypes were constructed to

approach this goal.

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Fusion Reactor of ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor) (source: 神秘核聚变能离我们还多远?; http://roll.sohu.com/20151214/n431253325.shtml)

A future nuclear aircraft concept HSP Magnavem has been designed by

Spanish Oscar Vinals. It is equipped with a Compact Fusion Reactor of Lockheed

Martin that powers four hybrid engines with maximum speed over 3 Mach.

Magnavem has two decks, as A-380 of Airbus, with a capacity for 500 passengers.

Future Nuclear Aircraft HSP Magnavem (Source: http://www.tuvie.com/hsp-magnavem-a-4th-state-of-matter-plane-by-oscar-vinals)

Magnavem’s hybrid engine is a turbine-

based combined cycle system to use a turbine

engine at low speeds and a scramjet engine at

high speeds, while the turbine and ramjet

engines share common inlet and nozzle, with

different airflow paths in between. The hybrid

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engine has been applied in Lockheed Martin SR-71 between 1964 and 1998.

Picture: SR-71 (Source: internet)

Comparison between HSP Magnavem, Airbus A380 and Boeing 747 (Source: http://www.behance.net/ovisdesign)

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2. NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT OF THE UNITED STATES

The United States developed the nuclear-powered aircraft between 1946 and

1961 in two program Nuclear Energy for the Propulsion of Aircraft (NEPA) and

Aircraft Nuclear Propulsion (ANP) by the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Atomic Energy

Commission. They pursued two different systems for nuclear-powered jet engines,

the Direct Air Cycle concept, which was developed by General Electric, and Indirect

Air Cycle, which was developed by Pratt & Whitney.

Two B-36 bombers were modified to become the testing platform, one was to

be used for studying shielding requirements for an airborne reactor, while the

another was planned to be rebuilt as a nuclear-powered aircraft. The B-36 bomber

flew a total of 47 times testing an airborne operational nuclear reactor over West

Texas and Southern New Mexico.

One Modified B-36 Bomber Testing a Airborne Nuclear Reactor (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_aircraft)

The first operation of a nuclear aircraft engine occurred in 1956 using a

modified General Electric J47 turbojet engine. Other two experimental engines

powered by nuclear reactors, HTRE3 and HTRE1, are successful in the Oak Ridge

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National Laboratory. But the program was cancelled before the nuclear-powered

aircraft, named X-6, was completed. HTRE 3 and HTRE 1 are on display at Idaho

National Laboratory near Arco, Idaho today.

Experimental Reactors for Nuclear Aircraft Nuclear Ramjet Engine HTRE 3 left and HTRE 1 right The "Tory-IIC" prototype

(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear-powered_aircraft) (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Pluto)

In 1957, U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission contracted

with the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory to study the feasibility of applying heat

from nuclear reactors to ramjet engines. This research became known as Project

Pluto. This program was to provide engines for an unmanned cruise missile,

Supersonic Low Altitude Missile. The program succeeded in producing two test

engines, which were operated on the ground. The project was canceled by the

Pentagon because it was considered too provocative.

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3. NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT OF SOVIET AND RUSSIA

Soviet developed its nuclear-powered aircraft between 1955 and 1965. A

Tupolev Tu-95 bomber was modified to testing airborne nuclear reactor, named

Tupolev Tu-119. The Tu-119 would have been powered by both nuclear-fueled and

kerosene-fueled turboprop engines: two Kuznetsov NK-14 nuclear engines inboard,

fed with heat from a fuselage-mounted reactor and two kerosene-fed Kuznetsov

NK-12 turboprops outboard. Soviet chose to focus on the direct-cycle system

testing ramjets, jet engines and even turboprops. The Tu-119 completed 34

research flights. However, the emerging potential of the intercontinental ballistic

missiles made the nuclear-powered aircraft superfluous, and it was stopped in

1965.

Tupolev Tu-95 Bomber (Source: internet)

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia had developed a new,

nuclear-powered cruise missile with nuclear warhead that can evade air and missile

defense and hit any point on the globe in his annual State of the Nation address on

1 March, 2018. According to the statements its first flight test occurred in 2017. It

was claimed to feature a small-size nuclear-powered engine that can be placed

inside the hull of cruise missile and guarantee a range of flight ten times greater

than that of other missiles.

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II. SUPERSONIC AIRLINER

The supersonic airliner is faster and more flexible than subsonic airliner. In

fact, supersonic airliner Concorde which made by France and Britain entered

business service for 27 years between 1976 and 2003. Concorde could fly 4,488 mi

(7,222 km) with a maximum cruise speed over twice the speed of sound at Mach

2.04 (1,354 mph or 2,180 km/h).

1. SUPERSONIC AIRLINER CONCORDE

The Concorde is a British - French turbojet-powered supersonic passenger

airliner. It just took about 3 hours from New York to Paris with seating for up to 128

passengers, if refilled at one-stop, it can reach any point of earth within 10 hours.

Concord entered service in 1976 and continued flying for next 27 years until 2003.

It could fly 4,488 mi (7,222 km) with a maximum speed over twice the speed of

sound at Mach 2.04 ( 1,354 mph or 2,180 km/h), in contrast, the cruise speed of all

subsonic airliners are below 621 mph (1000 km/h) including Boeing 747 with cruise

speed up to 570 mph (918 km/h), and A330 with cruise speed up to 567 mph (913

km/h). Picture: British Airway’s Concorde In 1968.(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)

Major Aircraft Velocity Comparison (source: wikipedia.com)

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Aircraft Speed /Mach

France and Britain jointly developed

and manufactured the Concorde under an

Anglo-France Treaty, and it flown at first time

in 1969. Concorde is one of only two

supersonic transports to have been operated

commercially, and another is the Soviet-built

Tupolev Tu-144. Total twenty Concorde were

built for Air France and British Airways. Concorde flew regular transatlantic flights

between London, Paris, and New York, Washington, in less than half the time of

subsonic airliners. Picture: Concorde Landing at Farnborough in 1974. (Source: https://

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)

British Airways Concorde Interior Concorde Flight Deck Layout (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)

Soviet had developed its supersonic airliner Tupolev Tu-144 which entered

business service between 1977 and 1983. Tu-144 was designed by Tupolev design

bureau in Soviet, and it is very similar with Concorde resulting from information

exchanges both open and secretly. It could fly 4,000 mi (6,500km) with cruise

speed up to Mach 2 (1,320 mph, 2,125 km/

h). Tu-144 had its first flight in December

1968, tow months before the flight of the

Concorde. It was used for passenger

transport only in 1977 and 1978, but

remained in use as a cargo aircraft until

1983. Picture: Tupolev Tu-144 in 1969 (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-144)

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a. RETIREMENT OF CONCORDE

The first Concorde entered business service in 1976. Total 20 Concorde was

built and all 12 Concorde, which were still on business flight, retired in 2003.

The Concorde was the safest operational passenger airliner in the world for

24 years with zero death until the only fatal air crash on 25 July 2000. Flight 4590 of

Air France planned to fly from Paris to New York, but caught fire when taking off. It

crashed into a hotel in Gonesse, France and killed all 100 passengers and 9 crew

members on board, and 4 people on the ground.

The official investigation indicates the crash was caused by a metallic strip

that had fallen from a Continental Airlines DC-10 taking off minutes earlier. The

metallic strip punctured a tyre on Concorde’s left main wheel bogie during take-off,

and then the tyre exploded, and a piece of rubber hit the fuel tank, which caused a

fuel leak and led to a fire. According to

John Hutchinson who had served as

Concorde captain for 15 years in British

Airways, the fire on its own should have

been eminently survivable, and the pilot

should have been able to fly his way out of

trouble. However, in order to respond to

fire alarm, the crew turned off one of two

engines, which resulted in power loss in take-off. Then the Concorde veered off

course on the runway, which reduced takeoff speed below the crucial minimum.

The aircraft had a rapid pitch-up then a sudden descent, rolling left and crashing

tail-low into a hotel near the Paris - Charles De Gaulle Airport. Picture: Flight 4590

During Takeoff. (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concorde)

Safety improvements were made after crash, including more secure electrical

controls, Kevlar (a high-strength materials) lining on the fuel tanks and specially

developed burst-resistant tiers. Concorde with safety modifications continued to fly

until 2003.

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b. WHY RETIREMENT?

The retirement of Concorde resulted from monopoly of global aircraft

manufacturing by Boeing and Airbus. The Fight 4590 crush couldn’t become the

reason to retire all the Concorde, although the crush is horrible and miserable.

Let us review the hall losses accidents of other three subsonic airlines, the

Boeing 747, Airbus 330 and Boeing 737. They are still on business service although

many hall losses accidents occurred in the previous decades. The Boeing 747 is an

American wide-body commercial jet airliner and cargo aircraft. It entered service in

1970. The Boeing 747 has been involved in 146 aviation accidents and incidents,

including 61 hull-loss accidents which resulted in 3722 fatalities. The last crush was

Turkish Airlines Flight 6491 in January 2017.

The Airbus A330 is a medium to long range wide-body jet airliner. It entered

service in 1994. A330 had been involved in 28 major aviation occurrences,

including 11 hull-loss accidents resulting in 339 fatalities.

The Boeing 737 is a short to medium range twin jet narrow-body airline. It

entered service in 1968. Boeing 737 had been involved in 368 aviation accidents

and incidents including 184 hull-loss accidents resulting in 4,862 fatalities.

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Hull - Loss Air Crash Fatalities

Airbus A330 Boeing 747

Boeing and Airbus monopoly subsonic airliner manufacturing in the world,

and supersonic Concorde became a threat to their business. Their monopoly result

in stagnate global aviation and retirement of Concorde.

Concorde had to retire because Airbus stopped maintenance support for

Concorde since 2003. Airbus is the result of consolidation of European aerospace

manufacturers including Concorde’s manufactures in France and Britain. Thus it

was the only one company can manufacture Concorde and provide maintenance

support.

Consolidations and centralization took place in

aviation over the last few decades. More than 5000

mergers and acquisitions with a total known-value of

about 580 billion USD were announced in aircraft

industry worldwide between 1988 and 2010. Two

dominating airliner manufacturers, Boeing for 53% and

Airbus for 41%, jointly account for 94% of total airliner

market with worth over 110 billion USD in 2016. The

Boeing is a American company with headquarter in

Chicago, and the Airbus is a European multinational

corporation with its main civil airplane business in Toulouse of France.

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Global Airliner Manufacturers

Largest In Service Mainline Fleet

(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airliner)

Manufacturer 2016 orders and deliveries 2019-2023 projection

deliveries values ($bn) net orders backlog deliveries values ($bn)

Boeing 726 57.8 563 5,660 4,737 (42.9%) 764.8 (50.7%)

Airbus 685 45.5 711 6,845 4,405 (39.9%) 682.8 (45.2%)

Embraer 108 2.9 39 444 484 (4.4%) 22.1 (1.5%)

Bombardier 81 1.9 162 437 475 (4.3%) 8.1 (0.5%)

ATR 73 1.5 36 236 400 (3.6%) 9.7 (0.6%)

Other 31 0.5 72 1,080 532 (4.8%) 22.4 (1.5%)

Total 1,704 110.1 1,583 14,702 11,033 1,510

Model 2018 2017 2016 2015

Airbus A320 family 7,132 6,838 6,516 6,041

Boeing 737 NG 6,373 5,968 5,556 5,115

Boeing 777 1,422 1,387 1,319 1,258

Airbus A330 1,269 1,214 1,169 1,093

Boeing 737 Classic/original 818 890 931 1,006

Boeing 767 740 744 738 762

Boeing 787 696 554 422 288

Boeing 757 669 689 688 737

Boeing 717/MD-80/90/DC-9 516 607 653 668

Boeing 747 475 489 503 558

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2. NEXT GENERATION SUPERSONIC AIRLINER

A Tu-144 was used as a testbed for

next generation supersonic airliner called

the High Speed Civil Transport in 1990s.

Tupolev Design, NASA (National Aeronautic

and Space Administration of the United

States), Rockwell and later Boeing had

involved in this research program. They

wanted to develop a next generation

supersonic airliner that would be

environmentally acceptable and economically feasible. The aircraft was baselined

to cruise at Mach 2.4, or more than twice the speed of sound, intended to cross the

Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean in half the time of subsonic aircraft. It was also

intended to be fuel efficient, carry 300 passengers, and to allow customers to buy

tickets at a price only slightly higher than those of subsonic aircraft. A Tu-144 was

taken out of storage and modified at a cost of USD 350 million. The upgraded

Tu-144 made 27 flights during 1996 and 1997, and they were successful

technically. However, the project was cancelled in 1999. Picture: High Speed Civil

Transport. (source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Speed_Civil_Transport)

As well as, Japan Aerospace and Exploration Agency (JAXA) has started to

design another next generation supersonic airliner which aimed to carry about 300

passengers, fly at speed Mach 2 (1,522 mph, 2,450 km/h), and have about 9,000

mi (14,400 km) range. An 11.5-meter prototype was tested in 2005.

Boeing unveiled a Mach 5 (3,375 mph; 5,400 km/h) hypersonic passenger

transport concept at the AIAA (American Institute of Aeronautic and Astronautics)

2018 conference. It could cross the Atlantic in 2 hours or the Pacific in 3 hours, and

would enable same-day return flights. The aircraft use a titanium airframe, and its

capacity would be smaller than a Boeing 737 but larger than a long-range business

jet.

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Boeing Hypersonic Transport Concept (Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersonic_transport#Previous_concepts)

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