The General Election of 2015

Where are we?

The General Election of 2010

Conservative 37% 306

Labour 30% 258

Lib Dems 24% 57

Ukip 3% 0

Other 6% 29

The Story of Voting Intention

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2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

Con Lab Lib Dem UKIP

Current Voting Intention

Conservative 32%

Labour 32%

Lib Dems 7%

Ukip 15%

Green 7%

Where are we going?

§ What will happen to UKIP? § What will happen to the SNP? § What will happen to the Lib Dems? § What effect will the leaders have on the

campaign? § What will happen to the economy?

The Big Questions

Joe.Twyman@YouGov.com @JoeTwyman

Charles Davis, Director, Cebr

The economic state of play as the election approaches

Consumer Confidence has failed to sustain gains driven by resurgent housing market & sinking unemployment

YouGov/Cebr UK Consumer Confidence Index – scale from 0-200; 100 is neutral

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Housing market acceleration has tailed off YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Indicator – own home value change over past month & expected change over next 12 months; index 0-200; 100 is neutral

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reported expected

Drop in unemployment has been rapid but higher job security isn’t yet pervasive

YouGov/Cebr Consumer Confidence Indicator – job security expected change over next 12 months; index 0-200; 100 is neutral

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Despite fastest growth in wider economy since 2007 households still don’t seem to be feeling the recovery YouGov/Cebr household finances indicator – change over past month & 12 month ahead expectations; index 0-200; 100 is neutral; <100 implies decline, >100 increase

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reported expected

In fact consumers have reason to be optimistic in 2015...but it doesn’t make up for years of falling real incomes Cebr calculation of gap between earnings growth and inflation

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Conclusions §  UK economy expanded at fastest pace since before financial crisis and unemployment

fell at a record rate in 2014 - now slowing;

§  Importantly, YouGov/Cebr data illustrate:

1.  the economy will slow further in 2015

2.  Whatever the big picture consumers aren’t feeling it

§  Recovery in confidence was housing market led but that’s cooled;

§  Inflation is likely to dip into negative territory this year and pay growth picking up;

§  So we should see the strongest growth in real incomes since before the financial crisis this year;

§  But spending cuts & tax rises loom whoever comes to power – although an interest rate rise could now be delayed until 2016.

Who is benefitting and who is losing out in the current economy

The Cube 160k panel members

c.120,000 data points

Current stats for the YouGov Cube in the UK (which continuously grows and

expands)

Panellists

Time

Variables

Using up to 100million data points to examine winners and losers in the upturn

Connecting our core data sets

Profiling ‘Winners’ and ‘Losers’? Economic tracking survey to identify people from households who are getting better off and ones worse. Connecting up to 120,000 data points for up to 460,000 panellists Panel database, real time long tail data collected through social website, TV consumption via daily surveys, BrandIndex, daily economic tracking, and volunteered data from web searches. How have we compared groups?

Groups have been compared against a weighted nationally representative sample or against each other.

Using Z-scores to make sense of large dataset Statistic representing both how large a difference between two groups is, and how confident we are in that difference. Z-scores are the number of standard deviations that the difference between two groups is away from 0.

Consumer confidence falls for the third consecutive month but remains slightly above the level at the start of 2014 YouGov / Cebr UK Consumer Confidence Indicator – Composite: Index runs from 0-200 where 100 is neutral

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Monthly consumer confidence index Headine Consumer Confidence Index (3 month average) Consumer confidence index average since 2009

More recently, confidence has started to dip

Consumer confidence saw a steady improvement in 2013 and early 2014

The HEAT Index (YouGov Consumer Confidence score) is derived from consumer sentiment on 4 metrics (household financial situation, job security, home prices and business activity) measured retrospectively and prospectively.

Household financial situation deteriorates despite further declines in the price of fuel in December. Household financial situation: Index: 0-200: 100 is neutral

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Household financial situation change over last month - average since 2009

Household financial situation expected change over next 12 months

Values below 100 indicate a deterioration in household financial situation.

GDP now above crisis levels: how ‘good’ is this economic performance? ONS data on economic growth in the UK, 2003 to 2014

GDP per head still below pre-crisis levels ONS data for average GDP per person in UK (inflation adjusted), 2003 - 2014

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UK  popula4on  grew  by  3.1m  from  61.4m  to  64.5m  from  2008  to  2014  

Households continue to be squeezed with improvement flattening out across 2014

YouGov/Cebr UK Consumer Confidence Indicator – household financial situation: % saying better, worse, no change

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Worse No change Better

Households getting less worse off In London (but only just)

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0.0% London

Northern Ireland North Midlands South Scotland East Wales

People from households expecting to get better off Top demographic differentiators (from 1,100 + profile data categories)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

London ABC1

Professional or higher technical work Voted Conservative Party 2010

Disposable monthly income £250 to £499 Gross household income £70,000 to £99,999 per year

Female 25-39 Housing type: studio/flat

Female 18-24 Male 18-24

Living with a partner (not married) Private sector

No health/disability issues Male 25-39

Working full time

People from households expecting to be worse off Top demographic differentiators (from 1,100+ profile data categories)

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C2DE  Divorced  

Female  40-­‐54  Semi-­‐Skilled  or  Unskilled  Manual  Work    

Male  40-­‐54  Public  sector  

Clerical  (e.g.  clerk,  secretary)  Married  

Not  working  £5,000  to  £9,999  per  year  

£15,000  to  £24,999  per  year  £10,000  to  £14,999  per  year  

Health  &  Disability  issues  Voted  Labour  Party  2010  

Most  read  newspaper:  red  top  

TV Programmes Expect to be better off vs worse off: likely to have watched and unlikely to have watched (from 3,500+ programmes)

-25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0 5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0

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20 brands more likely to be customer of Expect better compared to expect worse: from 1,000+ brands on BrandIndex

Worse (-ve Z-scores) Better (+ve Z-scores)

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Google Docs WhatsApp

National Rail Xbox 360

British Airways Dropbox NatWest

Spotify Virgin Atlantic

Twitter Apple iPhone

Playstation Instagram

H&M easyJet

Gatwick Airport YouTube

Heathrow Airport London Underground

LinkedIn

0.0   2.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   10.0   12.0  

Asda  Aldi  

Santander  Matalan  

Lidl  Post  Office  Farm  Foods  

Saga  EuroMillions  

BetFred  Parcel  Force  

Liverpool  Victoria  (LV=)  Bhs  

The  co-­‐opera4ve  pharmacy  Lo`o  

George  Morrisons  

The  Health  Lo`ery  Na4onal  Lo`ery  

Daily  Mirror/Sunday  Mirror  

Conclusion Better

•  Younger (18-39)

•  Voted Conservative

•  No major health issues

•  London based

•  iPhone user

•  PlayStation, Xbox

•  Planes and trains

•  Social media and Google docs

•  Family Guy, The Simpsons

Worse

•  Older (40-54)

•  Voted Labour

•  Health & disability issues

•  Read a ‘red top’ newspaper

•  Lower income

•  National lottery, EuroMillions

•  Morrisons, Lidl, Aldi, Asda

•  Bhs, Matalan

•  Regional news and weather, bargain hunt

info@YouGov.com @YouGov