The Geographical Implications of the Arab Spring Revolution

Rev. Isaac AgyapongGGA / GGTA 2012 Annual Conference South Campus,

KNUST, Kumasi, Ghana.1st - 4th August, 2012.

Outline of Presentation

• Introduction• Literature Review• Research Aim & Theoretical Orientation• Trajectory of Events• Geographical Implications of the Arab Spring• Conclusion

Introduction:

• The Arab Spring is an on-going political, socio-economic, and geographicalrevolution that has unexpectedly shaken the Arab World, in recent past. On one side, it appears to be a normal grassroot upheaval that rocks human society from time to time, due to disconnect with political leadership.

• On the other side, the Arab Spring (AS) represents systemic (policy) failure to deliver development expectations to the governed.

Intro – cont’d

• Origin: The genesis of the AS is traceable to the protest that occurred in Tunisia on December 18, 2010, following the death of Mohammed Bouazizi at Sid Bouzid.

• What exactly is it?: -Uprising (Anderson, 2011; Vlasic & Cooper, 2011). -Popular Protest (Bakri & Goodman, 2011; Mackell, 2011). -Revolution (Pereda, 2011; Raiser & Kunicova, 2011).

Literature Review • 3 Views have emerged from the extant literature: Labelist, Analytical, &

Structuralist schools.

• Labelist: seeks to answer the question; ‘what is it?’ (Mackell, 2011; Wolff, 2011; Johnstone & Mazo, 2011).

• Analytical: seeks to answer the questions; ‘why and how?’ (Anderson, 2011; Billinsky, 2011; Byman, 2011).

• Structuralist: seeks to answer the question; ‘which and where?’ Argues for case-by-case approach (structural audit) (Hamid, 2011; Friedman, 2011; Kuehnhandt, 2012).

Research Aim & Theoretical Orientation:

• Gaps in literature: very few studies have looked at the AR from a theory-based perspective.

• Again few have done geographical appraisals. This paper attempts to do that.

• Theoretical underpin: the Gateway Externalities Theory (GET)

Theoretical Orient. – cont’d

• The Gateway Externalities Theory (GET): • Holds that seemingly insignificant events in history may create

a formation of a world urban system different from the one that exists today. It argues that locational patterns of interaction-intensive activities depend on history.

• Agglomeration economies tend to bring about indeterminacy – i.e. undefined or unpredictable spatial patterns.

• Since historical accidents determine the dominant locations, we must define historical accident and how they act to select the winning. Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto (Kansai) region.

Trajectory of Events:

• The trend: status/current situation/causes

1.1 Arab Spring: Status Indicator as at March 2012No. Revolution Major Upheaval Protest1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.

BahrainEgyptLibyaSyriaTunisiaYemen

AlgeriaIraqJordanMoroccoSaudi Arabia

KuwaitLebanonMauritaniaOmanPalestine (West Bank)SudanUnited Arab EmirateWestern Sahara

Total 6 5 8

Trajectory of Events-2Table 1.2 Arab Spring: Selected Country-by-Country Overview (March, 2012)

No. Country Date Started

Date Completed

Outcome Current Situation

1. Bahrain 14/02/11 05/11 2. Egypt 25/01/11 02/11 Change of gov’t. (11/02/11);

Parliamentary elections held.Military transitional gov’t in place pending June pres. elections.

3. Jordan 14/01/11 04/11 Change in gov’t of PM Bakhit Constitutional reforms effected.

4. Libya 15/02/11 23/10/11 Change of gov’t (23/08/11); Int. military intervention

NTC partially in-charge; Eastern Province forms autonomous gov’t.

5. Morocco 6. Oman 17/01/11 05/11 Economic concessions by Sultan

Qaboos; Oman’s legislature granted law-making powers.

Suppressed with lofty economic baits.

7. Saudi Arabia 21/01/11 03/11 Over 40% increase in wages; Municipal elections hurriedly held (29/09/11); female citizens granted suffrage rights from 2015; and entry into Shua Council

Major constitutional reforms effected. Suppressed with lofty economic baits.

8. Syria 15/03/11 pending Large defections from Syrian Army; rival national army formed (FSA)

Economically sanctioned and weakened. Possible foreign intervention

9. Tunisia 18/12/10 03/11 Change of gov’t. (14/01/11) Newly elected gov’t installed.

10. Yemen 03/02/11 pending Weakened gov’t; Pres. Abdullah signs transitional deal (23/11/11)

Change of gov’t soon

Trajectory of Events-3

• Causes: mariad and multi-faceted...• Political• Social• Economic• Geographical• Psychological• Technological• Religious• International

Ablazed Lulu Hypermarket, Sohar-Oman, 28/02/11

Geographical Implications of:• Change in Settlement Patterns • Change in the Population Dynamics• Socio-Economic Overhaul• Change in Tourism Dynamics• Change in the Geopolitics of the Middle East• Rippling Effects on SSA and Southern Europe• Change in the Econ. Fortunes of Some Economic Blocs• Shift in the Geography of Violence• Change in the Geography of Gender• Change in the Transportational Geography of the Middle East

Key Lessons from the AR:• Avoid bad governance (Wolff, 2011).• Prudent management of national economies (Mackell, 2011).• Regional Balance in Development (Vlasic & Cooper, 2011).• Neglect of the Youth (Kuehnhardt, 2011) – ‘youthquake

syndrome’.

Conclusion:

This paper is an attempt to contribute to the ongoing academic evaluation of the Arab Spring. The emerging picture is the need for people-centered approach to governance, and beneficial public policies, that are tailor-made to achieve common good.Developmental initiatives that address the needs of both regional & geographic concerns are highly recommended.

Appreciation:

Thank you for listening...