the global earthquake model (gem) caribbean regional programme-an introduction

7/29/2019 The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Caribbean Regional Programme-An Introduction

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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL(GEM) CARIBBEAN REGIONAL

PROGRAMME AN INTRODUCTION

Dr. Myron W. Chin PhD, CEng, FICE, FIStructE, FAPETTGEM OPERATIONAL MANAGER FOR THE CARIBBEAN

SEISMIC RESEARCH CENTRE, UWI

at the

Port Authority Conference Room, Port of Spain Trinidad

31stJanuary 2012

Copyright Myron Chin 2011


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SUMMARY OF

-

- TYPES OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE CARIBBEAN- SOME EXAMPLES OF DAMAGE

- LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN REGIONAL PROGRAMME (GCRP)

- FORMATION OF SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS (WGs)- SOME OF PROPOSED RESEARCH PROJECTS OF WGs

- ACTIVE FAULTS CENTRAL RANGE FAULT, T&T

- BUILDING CODE FOR T&T

- BUILDING INVENTORY

- ME EXAMPLE F THE P TENTIAL U E F EM T L

- CONCLUDING REMARKS


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z

The entire Caribbean Basin is prone tosocio-natural and man-made disasters

z ECLAC estimates that the disaster

impact is over 1.5 billion US dollars/yearzA number of national, regional (ODPM,

CDEMA, SRC, ACS) and internationalorganizations (PAHO, OAS) arecurrently working in this area.

z Now we have GEM


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Geological:

z Earthquakes

z

z Tsunamis

z Landslides

Meteorological:

z Hurricanes

z orm surge an wave ac on

z Torrential rains


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Caribbean plate (after Weber)

Tobago


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Vertical neotectonics (tilting)(after Weber)

-


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El Pilar fault historic + instrumental earthquakes

(6.8)

Mendoza (2000)


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Perez et al. 2001

NA

NA

sana

17N

MF

san

a

FM

sana

MAR CARIBE

SFPF

VENEZUELA

0 mm/a

FP

20

VENEZUELA20 mm/yr

CANOA

-68 -58-74 W

6


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MAJOR FAULTS IN TRINIDAD AND

TOBAGO (After Lloyd Lynch)


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Trinidad and Tobago Damaging Earthquakes

Size, Intensity, Chronology and Locations

7.8 (IX)1766

a er oy ync

Energ

y

S

eismic

7.3 (VIII)

7.4 (VI)2007

6.6 (VIII)1825

7 (VII)1888

1918

6.3 (VIII)1954

6.55.9

6.7

6.1

6.7 (VIII)1997

6.26.3

.

1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000


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Recent Seismic Hazard Map

of Trinidad

a er oy ync


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TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF 1997-04-02(After Joan Latchman)


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14


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Natural Hazards

( As stated by Tony Gibbs)

Vulnerable tourism facilities Special concerns of small island

Destructive recent Hurricanes and

Earthquakes


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SOME EXAMPLES OF

THE CARIBBEAN REGION

- - -

-MAGNITUDE 5.6 & 6.1- -SAN SOUCI DUE TO HEAVY RAINS 2011

- MUD VOLCANO IN PIPARO-DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE 2004-11-21-MAGNITUDE 6.0

-HAITI EARTHQUAKE - 2010-01-12-MAGNITUDE 7.0


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TYPICAL DAMAGE TOBAGO EARTHQUAKE OF

1997-04-02 (MAGNITUDE 5.6) (Photo courtesy Dr. Joan Latchman)


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LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04

(PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)


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LANDSLIDE AT SAN SOUCI -2011-12-04

(PHOTO COURTESY S. LALLA)


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MUD VOLCANO AT PIPARO

(Photo courtesy of GSTT)


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-

OF 2004-11-21( MAGNITUDE 6.0)

Portsmouth Methodist Church Recreational Centre(Photos courtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -2-

DOMINICA EARTHQUAKE OF 2004-11-21

Portsmouth Methodist ChurchRecreational Centre

Photocourtes Dr. R. Clarke


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -3-


Portsmouth RC Church Front Wall and CornersCollapse (Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -4-


Portsmouth RC Church Close-up of Collapse(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -5 FLAT ROOF COLLAPSE

- - . .

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -6 OUT OF PLANE COLLAPSE- -

(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)(Photocourtesy Dr. R. Clarke)


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TYPICAL DAMAGE -7 FAILURE OF COLUMNS- -

(Photocourtesy Dr. D. Gay)

THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)


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THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)

OECDs Global Science Forum, aimed at

design, development and deployment of uniformopen standards and tools for earthquake risk

assessment worldwide

PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP


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PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

10 countries 7 rivate or anisations have they contribute

have adhered sofar partnered up with GEM so far13.6 M Euro

discussions and the OECD World Bank UNESCO

negotiations are ongoingwith 15+ others

UN/ISDR, IAEE and IASPEI are associateparticipants

SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM


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SCIENTIFIC FRAMEWORK OF GEM

DecisionMaking Tools

Con ngency Planning, Territorial

Planning, CostBenefit

Anal ysi s, Ri sk

overnance etc.

Risk and Impact AnalysisDamage and loss maps, loss exceedance curves,

, ,

economy

HazardProbability, Intensity,

ExposureValue, Loca on;

VulnerabilityPhysical, Social,

Loca on, ,

Economic

,

Func ons, Indicators

FIRST PRODUCTS


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FIRST PRODUCTS

What is ?

OpenQuake is an open source software application that allows users to

compute seismic hazard and risk on any scale, developed as an open source

project, available for download from http://openquake.org.


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ROLE OF GEMS EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

COMPONENTS TOGETHER

STAY UPDATED


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STAY UPDATED

GEM Website www.globalquakemodel.org

News, results, calls,

www.globalquakemodel.org

epor v

Available from website and hard-copy

GEM Brochure

Available from website and hard-copy

Bi-monthly e-Newsletter

-


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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN

PROGRAMME

the main mechanism through which the GEM tools

globally used standard. The RPs involve local

ex erts usin GEM software and tools, who eneratelocal data and validate the data and standards thatare being created on the global level.- e nst tut on o tructura ng neers ar eanDivision) hosted a presentation

Trinidad on 15 October 2010.


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LAUNCH OF GEM CARIBBEAN

on e-In January 2011, the GEM Foundation (hereinafter

Centre (SRC) of The University of the West Indies,

Caribbean. Funding became available in March

2011 at which time the GEM Operational Manager,Dr. Myron Chin, was appointed. He will, incollaboration with all players/stakeholders from the

ar ean commun y, spear ea eimplementation of the GEM initiative in the Insular

Regional Programme (RP) for the Caribbean

HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY


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HIGHLIGHTS OF GEM THREE-DAY

WORKSHOP- MAY 2-4,2011 TO

LAUNCH GEM REGIONALPROGRAMME IN THE CARIBBEAN

-OPENED BY HON. MINISTER OF SCIENCE,

TECHNOLOGY AND TERTIARY EDUCATION

- . ,

AND HELEN CROWLEY OF GEM SECRETARIAT AND

TWENTY OTHERS-ACTIVE PARTICIPATION BY SOME 68 PARTICIPANTS

FROM NINE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES

- SEVEN REGIONAL WORKING GROUPS FORMED- FULL DETAILS OF WORKSHOP CAN BE FOUND AT:

http://uwiseismic.com/General.aspx?id=91


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HON. MINISTER FAZAL KARIM

OPENS GEM WORKSHOP


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PRESENTATION BY DR. RUI PINHO

SECRETARY-GENERAL OF GEM

PRESENTATION BY DR MARCO


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PRESENTATION BY DR. MARCO

PAGANI GEM CO-ORDINATOR FOR

HAZARD


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PRESENTATION BY DR. HELEN

FOR RISK


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GEM WORKSHOP 2-4 MAY 2011

GROUP PHOTOGRAPH

GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL


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GEM CARIBBEAN SEVEN REGIONAL

HAZARD- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Dr. Walter- - -

Group 1: Active Faults

UWI MONA, JAMAICA)

Participants:Franc Au emar y Luz Ro rguez FUNVISIS, Venezue aLyndon Brown (Earthquake Unit, UWI Mona, Jamaica),

Wa ne Adams Consultant amaicaBarbara Carby (DRRC, UWI Mona, Jamaica)Joan Latchman SRC, UWI, Trinidad

, ,Krishna Persad, Krishna Persad & Assoc. Ltd, Trinidad

Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)


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Paleoseismology: locked or creeping CRF?(after Weber)

(2001)Prentice et al. 2010

(2001, 2002)

CENTRAL RANGE FAULT (AFTER WEBER)


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o ocene

FAULT

2002 Trench 9

Trinidad and Tobago Pipeline Network( ft Ll d L h)


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(after Lloyd Lynch)

GEM CARIBBEAN 7 REGIONAL


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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL

RISK- OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR -Dr. Myron Chin

Leaders of Sub-Groups:Building Codes: Carlos Buron

Critical Facilities: Wayne Adams

Retrofitting: Didier Deris xper u gemen : n ony arre

Building Inventory: Kevin Granger

, ,Barrie, Mona GeoInformatics ( Sub-group co-opted on

2011-05-12

Databases: Myron Chin, SRC, UWI, TrinidadMembers:to be co-opted by Leaders of Groups/SubGroups


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EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)


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DEVELOPMENT OF CARIBBEAN RISK ATLAS FOR

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS (RISK ATLAS PROJECT)

Project Manager: U.W.I Disaster Risk

Reduction Centre (DRRC) at Mona, UWI

in Jamaica.

Main Sponsor: World Bank

Completion Date: December 2011.


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To develop a methodology for seismic risk

assessment in the Caribbean forthree pilot

States: Jamaica, Grenada and Barbados.

To provide guidelines and open-source

loss using available socio-economic data.


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Seismic hazard assessment for Jamaica in terms of

. .

For Barbados and Grenada: we will use the seismichazard results of the Eastern Caribbean Project(SRC/EUCENTRE).

Development/Adapted Fragility Curves o ca on, es ng an va a on o

software

of geo-referenced data

Risk evaluation

VULNERABILITY AND


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VULNERABILITY AND

SURVEY ON DECEMBER 2010 - Kingston


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g

Masonr HousesPrecast houses

Reinforced concreteapartments

Modern Reinforced ConcreteBuilding at New Kingston

Historical Buildings

Reinforced concrete

buildings on slopes Wooden house


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DEVELOPMENT OF FRAGILITY CURVES

FOR pre-cast ouses

Heavy roof

Connections between panels areeffected by welding together

embedded in the edge ribs of thepanels.


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| GEM collaboration:

- Collaboration with GEM in terms of assistance with

the OpenQuake so tware development.

- Two of our Research Assistants from SRC spent two

end October 2011 to learn about OpenQuake and to

analyse the data collected under the DRRC Risk Atlas

ro ec n or er o assess s app ca y o eCaribbean Region.

GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES


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GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING CODES

ONE GEM PROJECT IS A NATIONAL BUILDING CODE FOR

T&T

GROUP 5 EXPOSURE BUILDING


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INVENTORY LEADER KEVIN GRANGER

1. Develop a Crowdsourcing model which is appropriate to this Region and in keeping withGEM Standards.

Crowdsourcing refers to the act of outsourcing tasks, traditionally performed by

employees or contracted labour, to a relatively undefined, large group of people or

community (a crowd), through an open call. I have chosen to refine this Wikipediadefinition to include the word relatively as the intention of this project is to break up

.

The Bounded Crowdwill be those participators who will not have any specific experience

in structural data collection and will be limited in the data that they can submit. These

participators will be responsible for creating the Level 1 attributes as defined in the GEMTaxonomy. Level 1 attributes will be those attributes that are easily observable and will

also include remote sensing, rapid assessments by municipalities (admin staff),

engineers, architects, technicians, and social scientists.

experience in structural data collection techniques to be responsible for submitting Level

2 attributes. These attributes will contain detailed structural and non-structural

information obtained from a detailed building assessment by a qualified engineer.

Partnership with GEM appointed agencies/tools or other groups like UShahidi (see

www.ushahidi.com) would allow us to create a web-based system that can assemble

rank and filter the input from the crowd and present weighted results.


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GEM CARIBBEAN -7 REGIONAL

WORKING GROUPS (Conted)Group 6: Vulnerability

Members: -Col. Dave Williams, Mr. Allan Stewart, Grisel

Morejon, CENAIS, Cuba, Jillian St. Bernard, SRC, UWILeader of Sub-Group: Tony Gibbs

-Effectiveness of Compliance Mechanisms

Members: - Didier Deris, Jan Vermeiren

Group 7: Socio-Economic Impact (SEI)-OVERALL CO-ORDINATOR Myron Chin

Leader of Sub-Group:- Jan Vermeiren

-Disaster Financing:

Members-Didier Deris, C. Rogers, Tony Gibbs, Fernando

Guasch, CENAIS, Cuba

- Valuation real estate

ea er o u - roup: acey war s o-op e y . n

- Education and Outreach

- Members: Alia Juman, SRC, UWI, Ibia Vega, CENAIS, Cuba

SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND


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SOME EXAMPLES OF POTENTIAL USE OF GEM TOOLS AND

MODELS IN THE CARIBBEAN.

GEMs model and tools are envisaged to support a wide range of users, both from the

public and private sectors, regional and national organizations, non-governmental

o es an a so n v ua s n ear qua e prone areas.

The following examples are some of the potential use of GEM tools and models:-

A countrys Minister of Planning and Development may wish to find out how theeffect of different possible earthquake scenarios might affect the Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) of the country.

A national disaster organization would like to see the expected distribution of damage

and fatalities within an urban area for a selected scenario earthquake for emergency.

A reinsurer or national primary insurer would like to calculate the average annual

loss and probable maximum loss to a portfolio of buildings (based on their own input

exposure data).

A geologist would like to carry out a new tectonic analysis in proximity to a dam, and

would like to download data on active faults as a starting point for his/her study.

An engineer who is working on the design of a bridge located in a zone of seismic

,

different performance limit states.An individual would like to understand how hazardous the area is, where (s)he is

planning to build a house.

CONCLUDING


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CONCLUDING

In concluding this Presentation, it is appropriate to make the

following remarks-

-GEM IS A GLOBAL ATTEMPT AT COLLABORATIVE DEVELOPMENT OF OPEN-SOURCE

SOFTWARE, TRANSPARENT TOOLS AND MODELS FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT

THE WORLD AND AS SUCH PROVIDES A CATALYST FOR EARTHQUAKE RISK REDUCTION

NOT ONLY IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WORLD

-INSURANCE/REINSURANCE COMPANIES

- GEM CARIBBEAN RP PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY TO BRING TOGETHER EARTHQUAKE

TOGETHER IN ADAPTING THE TOOLS AND MODELS DEVELOPED BY GEM SO THATEARTHQUAKE RISK CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED IN THE VARIOUS ISLANDS OF THE

CARIBBEAN.


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the global earthquake model (gem) caribbean regional programme-an introduction

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