the global environmental change and human security project the southern africa vulnerability...
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The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project
THE SOUTHERN AFRICA VULNERABILITY INITIATIVE (SAVI):INAUGURAL WORKSHOP
MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE
19-21 JUNE 2003
SAVI ContextGEC Research CommunityGECHS Development & Research Agenda
Rethinking Vulnerability within the GEC Community SAVI Overview & Sponsors Workshop Objectives & Format
Overview
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The GEC Research Community
Sponsoring Agencies
Research Programs
Research Projects
The GEC Research Community cont’d
SPONSORS:
International Council for Science (ICSU)
International Social Science Council (ISSC)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
The GEC Research Community cont’d
PROGRAMS (SPONSORS)
World Climate Research Program (WCRP)
(ICSU,WMO)
International Geosphere Biosphere Program (IGBP) (ICSU)
International Human Dimensions Program on GEC (IHDP) (ICSU, ISSC)
DIVERSITAS (ICSU)
The GEC Research Community cont’d
IHDP Projects
Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC)
Industrial Transformation (IT)
Land Cover & Land Use Change (LUCC)
Global Environmental Change & Human Security (GECHS)
The GEC Research Community cont’d
WMO ICSU ISSC
WCRP IGBP IHDP DIVER
IDGEC
IT
LUCC
GECHS
SAVI Organization
GECHS-led project (1 yr grant) Science Agencies (Funders)
ICSU & IHDP Co-op Universities, Institutes & Organization
Witswatersrand, Carleton, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, Internat Geog Union (Vulnerability Task Force), IGBP,
Southern Africa Savannas Network
SAVI Organizing Committee
Coleen Vogel, University of the Witswatersrand
Karen O’Brien & Ane Schjolden, Center for International Climate & Environmental Research–Oslo
Mike Brklacich, Carleton University
GECHS Origins
• Redefinition of traditional security concepts
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• Human security & the Canadian/international policy agenda
• Environment & economy linkages
• Critical zones mapping
Human Security & GEC
Human security is having the capacity to overcome vulnerability and to respond
positively to environmental change
Key Questions Underlying GECHS
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• What types of environmental change threaten human security?
• How does environmental change threaten human security?
• What is the present extent of insecurity?
• Which regions and groups are the most insecure?
• Why are some regions and groups more vulnerable to specific environmental change than others?
• Can we predict future insecurities?
Context:
What strategies are potentially available to cope with the insecurities caused by environmental change?
Response Options:
• Why are some strategies selected?
Analysis:
• Why are some effective?
• How can obstacles be overcome?
Impacts
to
Responses
to
Vulnerability
Rethinking Vulnerability to Climatic Change (CC)
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Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios
First-Order Impacts:Regional Climatic Properties
Second-Order Impacts:Primary Productivity
Higher-Order Impacts:Regional Production
Impacts of Climatic Change
Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios
Impacts
Adaptation Nonresponse Mitigation
Responses to Climatic Change
Attributes of Impacts &Response Research
Single stressor Slow, incremental CC Single scale Limited socio-economic change Vulnerability as a CC residual
Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability
ResearchCLIMATIC CHANGE
Change in type, freq & mag of threats
CC
Exposure
BIO-PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY
Building A Framework To Link CC & Vulnerability Research
cont’dCLIMATIC CHANGE
Change in type, freq & mag of threats
CC
Exposure
COMPREHENSIVEVULNERABIL
ITY
Capacity to cope with & recover from
CC
SOCIETAL CHANGE
Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc
Comprehensive Vulnerability:
Science – Policy Linkages
Identify vulnerable populations/regions Assess interventions to reduce human
vulnerability / improve human security Balanced programs to improve adaptive
capacity & mitigation
Project Development Sponsoring Agencies SAVI Objectives SAVI Process
SAVI Overview
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Project Development
Comprehensive vulnerability Multiple stressors Current (environmental) stress & GEC Policy responses Southern Africa focus
SAVI Organization
GECHS-led project (1 yr grant) Science Agencies (Funders)
ICSU & IHDP Co-op Universities, Institutes & Organization
Witswatersrand, Carleton, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo, Internat Geog Union (Vulnerability Task Force), IGBP,
Southern Africa Savannas Network
SAVI Purpose
Develop long-term applied research program &network for southern Africa to address
who is vulnerable, to what, why,and what can be done.
SAVI Objectives
1. Consolidate different facets of vulnerability research and develop an integrated framework for understanding vulnerability within the context of southern Africa
2. Develop a proposal for a self-sustaining, longer-term project which integrates vulnerability research with policy formulation.
3. Build a coalition amongst ICSU and other scientists in the region to implement a vulnerability research program.
SAVI Process (Tentative)
1. Assembling the multi-disciplinary team (Mar-Jun 03)
2. Inaugural W/S (Jun 03)
3. Workshop report (Jun-Sep 03)
4. Report in IHPD Update (Sep-Oct 03)
5. AVISO Bulletin & Briefings in Washington (US AID &WB) & Ottawa (CIDA & IDRC) (Jul-Dec 03)
6. Draft longer-term research proposal (Aug-Dec 03)
7. Mtg/ws to Review & Revise Draft Proposal and Engage Policy Community (Jan 04)
8. Preparation and Submission of Proposal for Long-term Project Funding (Oct 03 – Mar 04)
Workshop Objectives Logistics Anticipated Outcomes & Follow-up
Inaugural SAVI Workshop
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Workshop Objectives1. Examine current threats to human security in the region
2. Discuss how GEC in combination with other stresses might impinge upon human security in the region, & identify linkages.
3. Articulate policy issues relating to comprehensive vulnerability and human security in the region.
4. Begin development of a conceptual framework to assess comprehensive vulnerability.
Workshop Logistics
Mix of thematic & case studies
Short presentations to stimulate discussion
Discuss Qs presented in ToRs
Articulate linkages amongst vulnerability threats
Brainstorming!!!!!!
Anticipated Outcomes & Follow-up
1. Sharper Qs regarding:Who and which regions within southern Africa are
vulnerable & to what & why? What is threatened?Role of GEC and other changes in future vulnerabilities?Future collaborations & funding?
2. Sketch of SAVI conceptual framework3. Workshop reports
W/S summary, IHDP Newsletter, AVISO, Other?4. Plans for SAVI W/S II
Purpose, Focus, Timing