the global risks perception survey 2016 · 9/30/2016 · complete the global risks perception...

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The Global Risks Perception Survey 2016 We would like to ask you, as a member of the World Economic Forum’s multistakeholder community, to complete the Global Risks Perception Survey 2016 in preparation for The Global Risks Report 2017. Your expert opinion is vital in the elaboration of one of the Forum’s flagship reports, which will be released in January 2017, ahead of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting, and will be available on our website at the time of the launch at www.weforum.org/risks. The survey will take no more than 25 minutes and we ask you to kindly complete and submit it by Friday 30 September 2016.

Survey responses are confidential and individual responses are not identified.

Why the Global Risks Perception Survey? The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) is a multistakeholder survey that feeds into The Global Risks Report methodology by gauging perceptions about global risks, trends that can impact these risks, and their interconnections. The survey gathers valuable perception-based intelligence that is not otherwise available. What is The Global Risks Report? First launched in 2006 by the World Economic Forum, The Global Risks Report is widely recognized as one of the world’s leading publications on global risks. The Report identifies risks of global relevance and offers leaders from business, government and civil society a tool to understand those risks as well as a way to identify interconnections between them. It serves to inform decision-makers as they seek to make sense of an increasingly complex and fast-changing world. The 2017 edition features an analysis of risks associated with emerging technologies. What is a global risk? For the purpose of The Global Risks Report, a “global risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years. What is a trend? A “trend” is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them.

http://www.weforum.org/risk

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Descriptions

Global Risks A “global risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.

Global Risk Description

Econ

omic

Asset bubbles in a major economy Unsustainably overpriced assets such as commodities, housing, shares, etc. in a major economy or region

Deflation in a major economy Prolonged near-zero inflation or deflation in a major economy or region Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution

Collapse of a financial institution and/or malfunctioning of a financial system that impacts the global economy

Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure

Failure to adequately invest in, upgrade and/or secure infrastructure networks (e.g. energy, transportation and communications), leading to pressure or a breakdown with system-wide implications

Fiscal crises in key economies Excessive debt burdens that generate sovereign debt crises and/or liquidity crises High structural unemployment or underemployment

A sustained high level of unemployment or underutilization of the productive capacity of the employed population

Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.)

Large-scale activities outside the legal framework such as illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, counterfeiting and/or organized crime that undermine social interactions, regional or international collaboration, and global growth

Severe energy price shock (increase or decrease)

Significant energy price increases or decreases that place further economic pressures on highly energy-dependent industries and consumers

Unmanageable inflation Unmanageable increases in the general price levels of goods and services in key economies

Envi

ronm

enta

l

Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)

Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by extreme weather events

Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation

The failure of governments and businesses to enforce or enact effective measures to mitigate climate change, protect populations and help businesses impacted by climate change to adapt

Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine)

Irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries

Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)

Major property, infrastructure and/or environmental damage as well as loss of human life caused by geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, volcanic activity, landslides, tsunamis, or geomagnetic storms

Man-made environmental damage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.)

Failure to prevent major man-made damage and disasters, including environmental crime, causing harm to human lives and health, infrastructure, property, economic activity and the environment

Geo

polit

ical

Failure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.)

Inability to govern a nation of geopolitical importance as a result of weak rule of law, corruption or political deadlock.

Failure of regional or global governance

Inability of regional or global institutions to resolve issues of economic, geopolitical or environmental importance

Interstate conflict with regional consequences

A bilateral or multilateral dispute between states that escalates into economic (e.g. trade/currency wars, resource nationalization), military, cyber, societal or other conflict.

Large-scale terrorist attacks Individuals or non-state groups with political or religious goals that successfully inflict large-scale human or material damage.

State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)

State collapse of geopolitical importance due to internal violence, regional or global instability, military coup, civil conflict, failed states, etc.

Weapons of mass destruction The deployment of nuclear, chemical, biological and radiological technologies and materials, creating international crises and potential for significant destruction

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Soci

etal

Failure of urban planning Poorly planned cities, urban sprawl and associated infrastructure that create social, environmental and health challenges

Food crises Inadequate, unaffordable, or unreliable access to appropriate quantities and quality of food and nutrition on a major scale

Large-scale involuntary migration Large-scale involuntary migration induced by conflict, disasters, environmental or economic reasons

Profound social instability Major social movements or protests (e.g. street riots, social unrest, etc.) that disrupt political or social stability, negatively impacting populations and economic activity

Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases

Bacteria, viruses, parasites or fungi that cause uncontrolled spread of infectious diseases (for instance as a result of resistance to antibiotics, antivirals and other treatments) leading to widespread fatalities and economic disruption

Water crises A significant decline in the available quality and quantity of fresh water, resulting in harmful effects on human health and/or economic activity

Tech

nolo

gica

l Adverse consequences of technological advances

Intended or unintended adverse consequences of technological advances such as artificial intelligence, geo-engineering and synthetic biology causing human, environmental and economic damage

Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks

Cyber dependency that increases vulnerability to outage of critical information infrastructure (e.g. internet, satellites, etc.) and networks, causing widespread disruption

Large-scale cyberattacks Large-scale cyberattacks or malware causing large economic damages, geopolitical tensions or widespread loss of trust in the internet

Massive incident of data fraud/theft Wrongful exploitation of private or official data that takes place on an unprecedented scale

4

Trends A “trend” is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them.

Trend Description Ageing population Ageing populations in developed and developing countries driven by declining fertility

and decrease of middle- and old-age mortality Changing landscape of international governance

Changing landscape of global or regional institutions (e.g. UN, IMF, NATO, etc.), agreements or networks

Changing climate Change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity, that alters the composition of the global atmosphere, in addition to natural climate variability

Degrading environment Deterioration in the quality of air, soil and water from ambient concentrations of pollutants and other activities and processes

Growing middle class in emerging economies

Growing share of population reaching middle-class income levels in emerging economies

Increasing national sentiment

Increasing national sentiment among populations and political leaders affecting countries’ national and international political and economic positions

Increasing polarization of societies

Inability to reach agreement on key issues within countries because of diverging or extreme values, political or religious views

Rising chronic diseases Increasing rates of non-communicable diseases, also known as “chronic diseases”, leading to rising costs of long-term treatment and threatening recent societal gains in life expectancy and quality

Rising cyber dependency Rise of cyber dependency due to increasing digital interconnection of people, things and organizations

Rising geographic mobility Increasing mobility of people and things due to quicker and better-performing means of transport and lowered regulatory barriers

Rising income and wealth disparity Increasing socioeconomic gap between rich and poor in major countries or regions

Shifting power Shifting power from state to non-state actors and individuals, from global to regional levels, and from developed to emerging market and developing economies

Rising urbanization Rising number of people living in urban areas resulting in physical growth of cities

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Emerging Technologies Emerging Technology Description

3D printing

Innovations in printing using varieties of materials to move beyond prototyping and towards increasingly distributed manufacturing and medical applications, ranging from a greater use of technologies such as contour crafting in construction to the opportunity to develop printed biological materials, such as organ tissues, bone and muscle

Advanced materials and nanomaterials

Innovation in chemistry and physics resulting in the creation of new material substances, smart materials, 2D materials and other breakthroughs in properties and fabrication ranging from thermoelectric properties and shape retention to magnetic and mechanical functionalities

Artificial intelligence and robotics

Advancement in automated processes ranging from manufacturing to driverless vehicles and knowledge work, enabled by highly competent cyber-physical systems and machines that can substitute for human beings in completing various tasks most often associated with thinking, multitasking and fine motor skills

Biotechnologies

Innovations in genome editing, gene therapies and other forms of genetic manipulation and synthetic biology resulting in additions to the registry of sequenced species of animals as well as human DNA, the creation of previously non-existent organisms, and modifications to microbes and organisms for medical, agriculture and industrial applications, including integrating them with electronic and computing advancements

Energy capture, storage and transmission

Breakthroughs in energy technologies, including advanced batteries and fuel cells, orbiting solar arrays, tidal energy capture, wind and bioenergy, as well as advances in nuclear fusion containment, smart grid systems, wireless energy transfer, and increased fuel cell fabrication efficiencies

Blockchain and distributed ledger

Developments in cryptographic systems that manage and verify distributed transaction data on a public ledger, increasing transparency and securing an immutable record for application to cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin as well as for verification of varieties of transactions across industries, although especially in financial technologies

Geoengineering Creation and development of technological processes that intercede in the Earth’s geological and climatic systems, ranging from land and reclamation to atmospheric seeding in order to influence weather patterns or remove carbon dioxide

Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors

Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors, also known as the “Internet of Things”, combined with sophisticated large-scale data analytics that will connect, track and manage physical products, logistics systems, energy grids and more by sending and receiving data over widespread digital infrastructure

Neurotechnologies

Creation of new methods for insight into, and control of, the functionality and processing dimensions of the human brain, allowing for the ability to read, influence and communicate brain activity through various secondary technological dimensions such as smart drugs, neuroimaging, bioelectronic interfaces, machine-brain interfaces and brainwave decoding and manipulation

New computing technologies

Innovations in materials and assemblages used to process or store digital information, such as centralized cloud computing, quantum computing, neural network processing, biological data storage, and optical computing, including new software development, cryptography, and cybersecurity processes associated with each

Space technologies

Emerging technologies that will increase the ability for both public and private entities to access, explore, and create new forms of value such as microsatellites, reusable rockets, integrated rocket-jet engines, optical and imaging technologies, sensor advancements, resource exploitation, laser and communications technologies, space exploration and habitat developments, and technoscientific breakthroughs transferable to the marketplace

Virtual and augmented realities

Development of sophisticated immersive virtual environments that can range from heads-up displays and holographic readouts to fully mixed digital and physical environments to complete virtual worlds and interfaces

I. Assessments of Global Risks Definition of global risks A “global risk” is defined as an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years.

Guidelines and instructions In this section we would like to know your opinion about the likelihood of different global risks occurring over the course of the next ten years, and the severity of their impact if they were to occur.

For each question, please select the answer that best represents your opinion.

Example

Asset bubbles in a major economy

Likelihood of occurring globally within the next 10 years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely unlikely)

(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)

Selecting 1 means that you believe the event is extremely unlikely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years lower than 5%

Selecting 2 means that you believe the event is very unlikely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 5% and 25%

Selecting 3 means that you believe the event is unlikely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 26% and 45%

Selecting 4 means that you believe the event is somewhat likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 46% and 55%

Selecting 5 means that you believe the event is likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 56% and 77%

Selecting 6 means that you believe the event is very likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 76% and 95%

Selecting 7 means that you believe the event is extremely likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years greater than 95%

Negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years Minimal Minor Moderate Severe Catastrophic No opinion

Economic Risks 1.01 Asset bubbles in a major economy Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.02 Deflation in a major economy Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.03 Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.04 Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.05 Fiscal crises in key economies Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.06 High structural unemployment or underemployment Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.07 Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.08 Severe energy price shock (increase or decrease) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.09 Unmanageable inflation Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


Environmental Risks 1.10 Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.11 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.12 Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.13 Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.14 Man-made environmental damage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


Geopolitical Risks 1.15 Failure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.16 Failure of regional or global governance Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.17 Interstate conflict with regional consequences

Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.18 Large-scale terrorist attacks Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.19 State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.) Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.20 Weapons of mass destruction Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


Societal Risks 1.21 Failure of urban planning Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.22 Food crises Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.23 Large-scale involuntary migration Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.24 Profound social instability Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.25 Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.26 Water crises Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


Technological Risks 1.27 Adverse consequences of technological advances Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.28 Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.29 Large-scale cyberattacks Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


1.30 Massive incident of data fraud/theft Likelihood of occurring globally in the next 10 years

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)


II. Interconnections 2.01 Interconnections between global risks Global risks are not isolated and it is important to assess their interconnections. In your view, which are the most strongly connected global risks?

Please select three to six pairs of global risks, from the 30 global risks below (one risk can be connected to any one of the other 29 global risks).

Risk–risk connection 1

Risk (insert letter from list) strongly connects with Risk (insert letter from list)

Risk–risk connection 2 Risk (insert letter from list) strongly connects with Risk (insert letter from list)

Risk–risk connection 3 Risk (insert letter from list) strongly connects with Risk (insert letter from list)

Risk–risk connection 4 (optional) Risk (insert letter from list) strongly connects with Risk (insert letter from list)

Risk–risk connection 5 (optional) Risk (insert letter from list) strongly connects with Risk (insert letter from list)

Risk–risk connection 6 (optional) Risk (insert letter from list) strongly connects with Risk (insert letter from list) List of global risks a Adverse consequences of technological advances p Interstate conflict with regional consequences b Asset bubbles in a major economy q Large-scale cyberattacks

c Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks r Large-scale involuntary migration

d Deflation in a major economy s Large-scale terrorist attacks

e Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.) t Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine)

f Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution u Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)

g Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation v Man-made environmental damage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.)

h Failure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.) w Massive incident of data fraud/theft

i Failure of regional or global governance x Profound social instability j Failure of urban planning y Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases k Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure z Severe energy price shock (increase or decrease)

l Fiscal crises in key economies aa State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)

m Food crises ab Unmanageable inflation n High structural unemployment or underemployment ac Water crises

o Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.) ad Weapons of mass destruction

III. Assessments of Trends

Definition of a trend A “trend” is defined as a long-term pattern that is currently evolving and that could contribute to amplifying global risks and/or altering the relationship between them.

3.01 From the list of trends below, which are the three most important trends that will shape global development in the next 10 years? Trend A (insert number from the list below)

Trend B (insert number from the list below)

Trend C (insert number from the list below)

3.02 Interconnections: Trend–Risk For each of the three trends identified in question 3.01, select up to three global risks from the list below that are most strongly driven by these trends. Trend–risk connection 1 Trend A (same trend as in question 3.01) strongly drives

Risk 1 (insert letter from list) Risk 2 (insert letter from list) Risk 3 (insert letter from list)

Trend–risk connection 2 Trend B (same trend as in question 3.01) strongly drives


Trend–risk connection 3 Trend C (same trend as in question 3.01) strongly drives


List of global risks a Adverse consequences of technological advances p Interstate conflict with regional consequences b Asset bubbles in a major economy q Large-scale cyberattacks

c Breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks r Large-scale involuntary migration

d Deflation in a major economy s Large-scale terrorist attacks

e Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.) t Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine)

List of trends i Ageing population viii Rising chronic diseases ii Changing landscape of international governance ix Rising cyber dependency iii Changing climate x Rising geographic mobility iv Degrading environment xi Rising income and wealth disparity v Growing middle class in emerging economies xii Shifting power vi Increasing national sentiment xiii Rising urbanization vii Increasing polarization of societies

f Failure of a major financial mechanism or institution u Major natural disasters (e.g. earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption, geomagnetic storms)

g Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation v Man-made environmental damage and disasters (e.g. oil spills, radioactive contamination, etc.)

h Failure of national governance (e.g. failure of rule of law, corruption, political deadlock, etc.) w Massive incident of data fraud/theft

i Failure of regional or global governance x Profound social instability j Failure of urban planning y Rapid and massive spread of infectious diseases k Failure/shortfall of critical infrastructure z Severe energy price shock (increase or decrease)

l Fiscal crises in key economies aa State collapse or crisis (e.g. civil conflict, military coup, failed states, etc.)

m Food crises ab Unmanageable inflation n High structural unemployment or underemployment ac Water crises

o Illicit trade (e.g. illicit financial flows, tax evasion, human trafficking, organized crime, etc.) ad Weapons of mass destruction

Special Section: Impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution IV. Consequences of Emerging Technologies

Guidelines and instructions This section asks you to evaluate the likelihood of emerging technologies bringing significant benefits and negative consequences. It then asks how confident you feel about your responses to these questions. For each question, please select the answer that best represents your opinion. If you cannot assess a technology, please select the option “No opinion”. Example 3D printing Benefits: How likely is this emerging technology to bring significant benefits within the next 10 years?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)

Negative consequences: How likely is this emerging technology to bring severe negative consequences within the next 10 years?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely likely)

For both questions:

Selecting 1 means that you believe the event is extremely unlikely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years lower than 5%

Selecting 2 means that you believe the event is very unlikely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 5% and 25%

Selecting 3 means that you believe the event is unlikely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 36% and 45%

Selecting 4 means that you believe the event is somewhat likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 46% and 55%

Selecting 5 means that you believe the event is likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 56% and 75%

Selecting 6 means that you believe the event is very likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years between 76% and 95%

Selecting 7 means that you believe the event is extremely likely, with a probability of occurrence in the next 10 years greater than 95%

Level of confidence: How confident are you about your responses for this emerging technology? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low confidence)

(low confidence)

(somewhat confident)

(confident)

(very confident)

(extremely confident)

4.01 3D printing Significant benefits

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Severe negative consequences

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.02 Advanced materials and nanomaterials

Significant benefits

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.03 Artificial intelligence and robotics


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.04 Biotechnologies


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.05 Energy capture, storage and transmission


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.06 Blockchain and distributed ledger


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.07 Geoengineering


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.08 Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.09 Neurotechnologies


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.10 New computing technologies


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.11 Space technologies Significant benefits

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


4.12 Virtual and augmented realities


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion


(very

unlikely)

(unlikely)

(somewhat likely)

(likely)

(very likely)

(extremely

likely)

Level of confidence

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 No opinion

(extremely low

confidence)

(very low

confidence)

(low confidence)


(confident)

(very

confident)


V. Emerging Technologies and Governance 5.01 Please pick the three emerging technologies where you believe better governance is most needed. By “governance” we mean the rules, norms, standards and/or institutions that allow stakeholders to take effective decisions that maximize the benefits and minimize the negative consequences of a technology. Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) List of emerging technologies A 3D printing G Geoengineering B Advanced materials and nanomaterials H Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors C Artificial intelligence and robotics I Neurotechnologies D Biotechnologies J New computing technologies E Energy capture, storage and transmission K Space technologies F Blockchain and distributed ledger L Virtual and augmented realities

VI. Emerging Technologies and Global Risks For each question, please pick the three emerging technologies from the list below that you believe will most significantly exacerbate global risks within the stated risk category. By “exacerbate” we mean increase the likelihood and/or impact of those risks. 6.01 Please pick three emerging technologies that will most significantly exacerbate economic risks: Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) 6.02 Please pick three emerging technologies that will most significantly exacerbate environmental risks: Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) 6.03 Please pick three emerging technologies that will most significantly exacerbate geopolitical risks: Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list)

6.04 Please pick three emerging technologies that will most significantly exacerbate societal risks: Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) 6.05 Please pick three emerging technologies that will most significantly exacerbate technological risks: Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) List of emerging technologies A 3D printing G Geoengineering B Advanced materials and nanomaterials H Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors C Artificial intelligence and robotics I Neurotechnologies D Biotechnologies J New computing technologies E Energy capture, storage and transmission K Space technologies F Blockchain and distributed ledger L Virtual and augmented realities VII. Understanding Emerging Technologies 7.01 Please pick three emerging technologies from the list below that you think are the least understood by general public. Emerging technology 1:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 2:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) Emerging technology 3:_________________________________ (insert letter from list) List of emerging technologies A 3D printing G Geoengineering B Advanced materials and nanomaterials H Proliferation and ubiquitous presence of linked sensors C Artificial intelligence and robotics I Neurotechnologies D Biotechnologies J New computing technologies E Energy capture, storage and transmission K Space technologies F Blockchain and distributed ledger L Virtual and augmented realities

VIII. About You We would appreciate it if you would provide us with the information below (* required question). Please keep in mind that responses remain confidential: 8.01 Did you complete the Global Risks Perception Survey last year (GRPS 2015)? *

Yes No

8.02 Please select the area that best describes your expertise *

Economics Geopolitics Environment Society Technology

8.03 Please select the type of organization with which you are affiliated *

Government Business: Sector International Organization Academia Non-governmental organization (NGO) Other (please specify):

8.04 Are you part of a World Economic Forum Global Future Council? *

No Yes, please select below:

The Future of Consumption The Future of International Security The Future of Digital Economy and Society The Future of Migration The Future of Economic Growth and Social Inclusion The Future of Regional Governance The Future of Education, Gender and Work The Future of Advanced Materials The Future of Energy The Future of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics The Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security

The Future of Biotechnologies

The Future of Financial and Monetary Systems The Future of Blockchain The Future of Food Security and Agriculture The Future of Computing The Future of Health and Healthcare The Future of Cybersecurity The Future of Information and Entertainment The Future of Neurotechnologies and Brain

Science The Future of International Trade and Investment The Future of Space Technologies The Future of Long Term Investing, Infrastructure and Development

The Future of Behavioural Sciences

The Future of Mobility The Future of Human Enhancement The Future of Production The Future of Human Rights The Future of Cities and Urbanization The Future of Innovation and Entrepreneurship The Future of the Humanitarian System The Future of Platforms and Systems The Future of International Governance and Public-Private Cooperation

The Future of Technology, Values and Policy

8.05 Please select your gender * Male Female

8.06 Please enter your year of birth* Year: 8.07: Please enter your country of residence *: 8.08 Would you like to receive an e-copy of The Global Risks Report 2017:

Yes, email: No

Please complete and return by Friday 30 September 2016 to: The Global Risks Report, World Economic Forum 91-93 Route de la Capite, CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva, Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0) 22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0) 22 786 2744 For any questions, please email us at [email protected].

The aggregated results of all survey responses will be an integral part of The Global Risks Report 2017, to be published in January 2017. To read previous editions of The Global Risks Report, visit www.weforum.org/risks.

Thank you for completing our survey. The World Economic Forum values your time and insights.

http://www.weforum.org/risk

the global risks perception survey 2016 · 9/30/2016 · complete the global risks perception...

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