the gottesman residential report · 2015-11-11 · on social media, our facebook following has...

THE GOTTESMAN RESIDENTIAL REPORT

Q3 2015 AUSTIN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE REPORT

2 | The Gottesman Residential Report - Q3 - 2015 GottesmanResidential.com | 3

GOTTESMAN RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE

1501 ENFIELD ROADAUSTIN | TEXAS | 78703

512.451.2422CONTACT@GOTTESMANRESIDENTIAL.COMGOTTESMANRESIDENTIAL.COM

LAURA GOTTESMANBROKER / OWNER

CREATIVEANASTASIA CASEYDIRECTOR OF MARKETING

RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENTQUINN CASEYDATA ANALYST

THE THIRD QUARTER

Real estate in Austin ’s prime markets continued to cl imb in value during the third quarter of 2015. Central neighborhoods l ike Tarrytown, Pemberton Heights and Old Enfield saw an increase in price per square foot of 7.67%, per data provided to MLS. The summer market held strong this year compared to the tradit ional ly busiest springtime sel l ing season. Westlake, inside the Loop, also held strong with an increased number of sales from second quarter, and just as many sales as Q3 2014.

Downtown condo sales slowed from this t ime last year, but the average price per square foot increased in units below $2MM. With the introduction of three new luxury bui ldings this year, we are excited to see what the future wil l bring for the Austin skyl ine. Throughout town, inventory is up from this t ime last year. Due to increased inventory, product is s itt ing on the market for longer periods of t ime than Austin ’s booming market has grown accustomed to lately, averaging 93 days on MLS.

As always, i t ’s important to remember the signif icance of Austin ’s private transactions which are not represented in this report , and how they affect the market. At Gottesman Residential , more than 60 transactions were completed outside of MLS so far this year and were not considered in our market analysis. The importance of an experienced agent with an expertise in the area is greater than ever to help homeowners accurately translate the fast paced real estate market.

This summer gave us the opportunity to grow our digital reach, celebrating vis its to our website from over 135 countries around the world in September. On social media, our Facebook fol lowing has grown to nearly 3,000 engaged fans and Instagram has been an excit ing way to reach interested part ies around the globe.

During the past 3 months, we have proudly expanded our Gottesman family to include the talents of Broker Associates, Dara Al len and Mark F. Moore, and REALTOR®, Mason Quintana. Their expertise and experience brings invaluable insight to our team and increases our service in the community.

While Gottesman Residential continues to expand its reach in the Austin market, we remain committed to excel lence in servicing al l of our cl ients and providing in depth knowledge of the market. We are avai lable to you, as always, to answer any questions you may have as we delve into the last quarter of what has already been a tremendous year in real estate.

Sincerely,

Laura GottesmanBroker, Owner


AUSTIN AT A GLANCE (OVER $750,000)

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DOWNTOWNNew development continues to shape the DT skyl ine, with over 11 projects currently under construction or slated to commence by the end of Q3-15, and three more to break ground by year ’s end. As for current inventory, average price per square foot sl ightly decreased with the promise of new bui ldings.

CENTRAL AUSTIN - 78703A market with drastical ly varying product, the Tarrytown, Old Enfield, Clarksvi l le and Pemberton neighborhoods often experience signif icant swells in average pricing as outlying “anomalies” skew the market. Of the 49 homes traded this quarter in area 1B, there was an increase in price per square foot of 7.67%. We’ve seen an increase in mult iple offers on contemporary or transit ional , move-in ready homes up to $2.5MM.

WESTLAKE - INSIDE THE LOOPDemand remains hot for c lose-in Westlake. With 93 homes sold in MLS during Q3 - 2015, there was virtual ly no difference from this springs market. Prices held steady in comparison to summer of last year, with an average price per square foot increase of 6%.

OUTSIDE THE LOOP & BARTON CREEKAn increase in inventory has homes remaining on the market for an average of 41% longer than this t ime last year, part icularly in the $750-$1MM range. Overal l sales decreased in the Barton Creek area, with only 3 transactions reported over $2MM; however, home sales between $750K and $1MM increased by 17%.

SOUTH AUSTINWith 28 sales over $750,000, South Austin continues to shine. Travis Heights, Barton Hi l ls , South Congress and Zi lker neighborhoods saw a cl imb in average price per square foot of 7% over last year and l ist ings spent 15 fewer days on the market. These neighborhoods also saw the median sales price jump from under $1MM to $1,072,216.

EAST SIDEThis quarter saw a 117% increase in sales for homes between $500-$750k over Q3 of 2014. Addit ional ly , the price per square foot increased over 14% since spring this year. Up 14% quarter over quarter, and 11% year over year, the $313.29 price per square foot is quickly inching up to prices seen around the rest of Central Austin.

NORTHWEST HILLSNorthwest Hi l ls remained nearly as act ive as summer 2014, with 15 sales averaging a sales price $916,416. As with most Austin area neighborhoods, the PPSF increased sl ightly, up to $254.24.

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AUSTIN MARKET ANALYSIS (OVER $750,000)

Number of Sales Avg. Sales Price Median Sales Price DOM Avg. PPSF

Q3-15 208 $853,614 $843,000 65 $270.74

Change 37% -1.0% -1.0% 14% -1%

Q3-14 152 $861,834 $851,500 57 $273.37

Q3-15 208 $853,614 $843,000 65 $270.74

Change 4.00% -0.20% -0.10% 20.40% -5.60%

Q2-15 200 $855,025 $844,000 54 $286.88

$750K - $1MM


Q3-15 174 $1,447,715 $1,289,500 91 $364.54

Change 11% 0.70% -0.80% 18% -0.40%

Q3-14 157 $1,437,576 $1,300,000 77 $365.95

Q3-15 174 $1,447,715 $1,289,500 91 $364.54

Change -5% -3% -4% 2% -4%

Q2-15 184 $1,494,429 $1,350,000 89 $378.02

$1MM - $3MM


Q3-15 8 $4,497,109 $4,113,435 79 $711.06

Change -33% 14% 3% -8% 12%

Q3-14 12 $3,954,708 $3,975,000 86 $635.58

Q3-15 8 $4,497,109 $4,113,435 79 $711.06

Change 33% 0.90% -1.50% -75.80% 2.70%

Q2-15 6 $4,456,317 $4,175,000 327 $692.52

$3MM +

Q3-15 saw a normalization of the average price per square foot at $321.61 for the greater Austin area in homes over $750,000. Both the price per square foot and median sales price dropped year over year and quarter over quarter as Austin ’s luxury market has begun to stabi l ize.

Average sales prices were up for homes priced over $1MM, and homes below $1MM held steady, with only a 1% drop from the Spring market.

PERCENTAGE OF SALES BY PRICE SEGMENT OVER $750K

Q3-14

Q2-15

Q3-15

51%

47%

53%

47%

49%

45%

2%

4%

2%

Percentage Of Sales by Price Segment

$750K-1MM $1MM-$3MM $3MM+

3 YEAR MEDIAN SALES PRICE + AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT OVER $750K

$250$260$270$280$290$300$310$320$330$340$350

$940,000

$960,000

$980,000

$1,000,000

$1,020,000

$1,040,000

Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

PPSF

Price

Axis Title

Median Sale Price and Average PPSF

Median Sales Price Average PPSF

$0

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$2,500,000

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2 3 4 6 7 1A 1B 1N 8E 8W BU CLS CM DT GP HD HS LL LN LS LW NW OT RN SWE UT W

Total Transaction Activity by MLS Area

Number of Sales Average Sales Price

TOTAL TRANSACTION ACTIVITY BY MLS AREA OVER $750K


AUSTIN Q3-15 SINGLE FAMILY VS. CONDO

SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE SALES(OVER $750,000)

Sales volume in Austin hit its highest point in three years in 2015’s third quarter. We did see a stabilization in the average sales price, dropping 4% from the last year’s historic highs. With an increase in price per square foot over last summer, Austin’s price per square foot fell only 2% from the traditionally hot spring market.

Despite a record 377 sales this quarter, there was a notable increase in the average days on market – up 6% from spring, and 12% year over year. Q4 is historically much quieter through the holiday season, but we anticipate continued high volume into the new year.

377 SALES

HIGHEST VOLUME IN

3 YEARS

$1,191,071

AVERAGESALES PRICE

$311

AVERAGEPRICE PER

SQUARE FOOT

3 YEAR SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENCE VOLUME + AVERAGE SALE PRICE

Q3-15 YoY% Q3-14 QoQ% Q2-15Average Sale Price $1,191,071 -4% $1,241,240 -1% $1,203,503Average PPSF $311 1% $308 -2% $317Median Sale Price $968,000 -6% $1,033,400 -3% $995,000Number of Sales 377 27% 298 1% 372Days on Market 78 12% 69 6% 73Listing Discount - 4.3% – - 4.2% – - 4%

Q3-15 SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE PERFORMANCE

SOURCE: MLS

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

$900,000

$1,000,000

$1,100,000

$1,200,000

$1,300,000

$1,400,000

$1,500,000

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CONDOMINIUM RESIDENCE SALES(OVER $500,000)

Q3 slowed by 40% in condo sales over this Spring’s record breaking quarter. Largely in part to the introduction of three new luxury buildings earlier this year, 2015’s third quarter had fewer completed transactions as those buildings begin to fill up.

Also worth noting, there has been a significant increase in the length of time an average unit spends on the market – also likely credited to the huge increase of inventory Downtown. This is, however, 35 days below the national average for condos in major markets. The average sales price has remained steady year over year and quarter over quarter, varying by only $3 either way.

49 SALES

28% FEWERTHAN

Q3-2014

$784,513

AVERAGESALES PRICE

$475

AVERAGEPRICE PER

SQUARE FOOT

3 YEAR CONDOMINIUM VOLUME AND AVERAGE SALE PRICE

Q3-15 YoY% Q3-14 QoQ% Q2-15Average Sale Price $784,513 - 12% $893,323 - 1% $789,308Average PPSF $475 - 1% $478 1% $472Median Sale Price $637,000 2% $625,000 - 2% $650,500Number of Sales 49 - 28% 68 - 40% 82Days on Market 47 35% 34 - 9% 51Listing Discount - 3.1% – -3.1% – - 3.6%

Q3-15 CONDOMINIUM PERFORMANCE

$0$100,000$200,000$300,000$400,000$500,000$600,000$700,000$800,000$900,000$1,000,000

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Q3-15 LUXURY MARKET PERFORMANCE

ActiveListings

# ofSales Change Avg. Sale

Price Change Avg.PPSF Change Avg.

DOM Change

$750 - $1MM 29 23 53% $837,479 -7% $347 7% 42 31%$1MM - $2MM 37 23 -18% $1,322,534 6% $393 1% 105 150%$2MM - $3MM 12 3 0% $2,362,833 -13% $611 15% 155 370%

$3MM + 3 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

AREA 1B

ActiveListings



DOM Change

$750 - $1MM 33 41 52% $849,272 -3% $281 5% 44 47%$1MM - $2MM 59 42 11% $1,393,243 4% $341 3% 47 -10%$2MM - $3MM 30 6 100% $2,345,125 -14% $325 -39% 95 98%$3MM+ 35 4 33% $5,131,718 32% $821 44% 49 -39%

AREAS 8W + 8E

ActiveListings



DOM Change

$750 - $1MM 12 7 17% $879,200 3% $229 -6% 157 37%$1MM - $2MM 27 9 -31% $1,515,760 1% $328 -1% 96 10%$2MM - $3MM 17 2 -33% $2,722,500 17% $286 -32% 203 131%$3MM+ 7 1 -50% $3,125,000 -20% $510 8% 40 33%

AREA W

ActiveListings



DOM Change

$750 - $1MM 12 2 -78% $800,000 -9% $587 19% 104 181%$1MM - $2MM 27 7 -13% $1,424,071 -1% $719 3% 45 -32%$2MM - $3MM 8 1 -50% $2,425,000 -1% $901 7% 105 -15%$3MM+ 8 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- --

AREA DT

Analysis of Austin ’s luxury market by MLS area reveals that while homes in the highest end of the market experienced lower volume in Q3-15 than the preceding year, the largest segment – $750-$1MM – demonstrated very strong fundamentals in the period. The $1MM – $2MM segment experienced a growth in average sales price across the board. Home sales valued over $3MM slowed over last year, with the exception of Westlake which saw a 33% increase in transactions.

Central Austin and Westlake saw an increase in average price per square foot across al l market segments, while the high end of the market dropped 18% price per sqaure foot in both Downtown and Barton Creek. This demonstrates a growing trend and need for “ jewel box” homes, with high-end f inish out, c lose promiximity to Downtown, and moderate square footages.

Average days on market saw an increase across the board in Austin ’s luxury markets, which can be credited to the increase in act ive l ist ings. Tradit ional ly , a wider select ion of inventory creates longer days

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NEIGHBORHOOD SPOTLIGHT:THE EAST SIDE

Austin ’s trendy East Side is proving it has true staying power. The only numbers fal l ing on this s ide of town are the average days on market - currently averaging less than 50 days. From its c lose proximity to Downtown, eclect ic st ly ing, to the booming restaurant scene, i t ’s no wonder that everyone from young famil ies to wel l establ ished architects and designers are moving East.

In the last year alone, new restaurants, shops and creative workspaces have popped up on the East Side, servicing an increasing desire to l ive, work and play in the same vicinity. Here there is a casual , hip l i festyle along with the thriving shopping, dining and nightl i fe distr ict al l within walking distance of each other.

Situated just east of I -35 and stretching onward to Highway 183, the transit ioning neighborhood boasts downtown views, lake access, art

gal leries and some of Central Austin ’s last affordable square footage. Easy access to the Lady Bird Hike & Bike Trai l , local nurseries l ike East Austin Succulents and al fresco dining at Eden East make for a comfortable outdoor l i festyle.

The East Side isn’t just hype, the numbers back it up. This quarter saw a 117% increase in sales for homes between $500-$750k over Q3 of 2014. Addit ional ly , the price per square foot increased over 14% since spring this year.

While the number of luxury properties on the East Side is st i l l s l im (only one property sold this quarter over $1MM), the average price per square foot is c l imbing rapidly in the mid-level market. Up 14% since spring, and 11% over last year, the $313.29 price per square foot is quickly inching up to prices seen around the rest of Central Austin.

EAST AUSTIN MARKET AT A GLANCE

EATING YOUR WAY EASTFrom fine dining to late night bites, here are a few of our favorite eateries in the neighborhood that are not to be missed:

• Contigo• Dai Due• East Side King• Eden East• Frankl in Barbecue• Hi l ls ide Farmacy• Jacoby’s• Just ine’s Brasserie• Juniper

• la Barbecue• Launderette• LaV• Mettle• Qui• Salt & Time• Salty Sow• The Hightower

Q3-15 YoY% Q3-14 QoQ% Q2-15

Average Sale Price $616,759 -6.6% $660,191 -0.2% $617,888

Average PPSF $302.41 -1% $305.43 8.6% $278.49

Median Sale Price $585,000 -1.3% $592,500 6.6% $549,000

Number of Sales 42 91% 22 -21% 53

Days on Market 56 -10.9% 62 -1.0% 56

Listing Discount -1.2% -1.9% -2%

Q3-15 REAL ESTATE PERFORMANCE OVER $500,000$616,958

AVERAGESALES PRICE

$313.29

PRICE PERSQUARE FOOT

DISCLAIMER / NOTESAll information is from sources deemed rel iable, but no guarantee is made as to i ts accuracy. Al l material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is represent subject to human errors, omissions, changes, or withdrawn without notice. Licensed in the state of Texas.

the gottesman residential report · 2015-11-11 · on social media, our facebook following has...

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