The Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000:The Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000:

Post-secondary Pathways Post-secondary Pathways Preliminary AnalysisPreliminary Analysis

Presentation to HEQCO - June 15, 2009

Dr. Robert S. BrownOrganizational Development/

Research and Information Services

Toronto District School Board

Sections:Sections:I. Toronto and the Toronto District School Board (TDSB)

II. What do we mean by the Grade 9 cohort?

II. Outline of Cohort Progress

IV. TDSB Post-secondary

V. Post-secondary Access: this Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000

VI. TDSB Post-secondary Pathways of the Grade 9 Cohort

-- -- Next Steps -- -- Next Steps --

I.I. Toronto and the TDSBToronto and the TDSB

About the (TDSB)About the (TDSB)

Created on January 1, 1998, following the amalgamation

of 7 individual boards.

Largest school board in Canada.

592 schools serving 270,000 students.

Diverse student population in one of the world’s most

diverse cities.

TDSB- Key LanguagesTDSB- Key Languages

2001 Census-- Average Family Income

Unknown Units: View1

Average Family Income 2001 Census11415 - 4722247222 - 5901259012 - 7092570925 - 9587395873 and up

N

Sources: Statistics Canada; Base Map: DMTI, Land Information Toronto

Source: City of Toronto

II. What do we mean by the Grade 9 cohort?II. What do we mean by the Grade 9 cohort?

Annual rates, looking at the outcomes of a group of students

(using most students in a high school system) over a one year

period (e.g. EQAO tests, Secondary Success Indicators)

Annual versus CohortAnnual versus Cohort

Cohort rates, looking at how one group of students did over a

period of time.

In Ontario, this has traditionally looked at how Grade 9 students

have fared over a five year period, from when they started their

first year of high school in Grade 9 until after they finished their

fifth year).

Annual versus CohortAnnual versus Cohort

Only way to provide the full (or at least fuller) picture of

long-term student progress.

Both at-risk and resilient students take longer to complete

high school.

‘Dropout’ status changes from year to year; the longer the

study the more definitive the outcome.

Why Do Cohort Studies?Why Do Cohort Studies?

Examine progress over time

Look at differences between subgroups

Examine differences between subgroups over time

Key Directions/Key Directions/

Purposes of Cohort Studies:Purposes of Cohort Studies:

Graduation with OSSD and/or 30+ credits

Remaining in the TDSB for Year 7 (October 31 of Year 7)

Transfer to other educational systemTransfer to other educational system

Dropout

Cohort: Outcomes at end of 6 yearsCohort: Outcomes at end of 6 years

Grade 9 cohort of Fall 2000 (with references to other cohorts):

13-15 year old students who started their secondary studies in

the TDSB (Grade 9) in Fall 2000

First TDSB cohort study (used 6 student information systems

from time of amalgamation)

III.III. Outline of Cohort ProgressOutline of Cohort Progress

2003-4 (Year 4)

2004-5 (Year 5)

2005-6 (Year 6)

2006-7 (Year 7)

2007-8 (Year 8)

Under the OSS curriculum, students can attend regular day

school until the age of 21.

Thus, students in the cohort were in the position to graduate/apply

to Post-secondary in:

54.5% graduated in 2003-4 (Year 4)

14.2% graduated in 2004-5 (Year 5)

3.0% graduated in 2005-6 (Year 6)

by the end of Year 6, 26.1% had dropped out

by the end of Year 6, 2.3% were still in the TDSB in the

Year 7 of secondary.

Most students had either graduated or dropped out by Fall 2007

(end of Year 6/beginning of Year 7):

Note: 'dropout' is a fluid concept. A student can be a dropout

one year, a current student the next year, and a graduate.

For analysis of graduation and dropout trends in this cohort,

see Brown (2006) and Anisef et al. (2008).

IV. TDSB Post-secondaryIV. TDSB Post-secondary

Post-secondary InformationPost-secondary Information

Data from OUAC (university applications)

Data from OCAS (community college applications)

Merged with TDSB information from the student information

system for each school year.

Figure 50: Applications, Confirmations (Acceptances) and Registrations of 17-21 Year Olds, TDSB Spring 2004

8%

13%

34%

27%24%

6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

University Community College

Post-secondary Outcomes

Prop

ortio

n of

stu

dent

s

Applied Confirmed Registered

See Brown, TDSB Secondary Student Success Indicators, 2004-2005

TRENDS-- In looking at this cohort, we are looking at a

moving target. Increasing proportion of students in the

TDSB applying to post-secondary.

MULTIPLE YEARS Students will apply in multiple years of

Grade 12. They may apply one year, be unsuccessful, and

they apply another year. Or they may not apply until their

second and third year of Grade 12.

The Direct TransitionThe Direct Transition

The Direct Transition Students will apply to post-secondary directly from high school,

or within a year or two of graduation. These students are the

'direct transition'.

Students will apply as adult students in the 'indirect transition'.

The boundaries between the two are fluid.

We will be looking at the direct transition, according to

student records.

V. Post-secondary Access: This Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000

Students 1) Apply to post-secondary; they 2) confirm an offer of

admission and 3) register (attend) the institution.

We looked at five years of postsecondary applications and

confirmations (registration data available only in 2004):

2003-4 (Year 4 of this cohort; known by universities and

colleges as the 2004 applications cycle)

2004-5 (Year 5)

2005-6 (Year 6)

2006-7 (Year 7)

2007-8 (Year 8 if this cohort; the 2008 applications cycle)

V.V. Post-secondary Access: Post-secondary Access: This Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000This Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000

In 2004, out of all university confirmations, two thirds of (65%)

confirmed an offer of admission in the four universities located

in the City of Toronto: Toronto (34%), York (19%) Ryerson

(11%) and the Ontario College of Art and Design (1%).

Other students most often registered at universities that were

also fairly close to Toronto: Waterloo (8%), Western (5%),

Queens (5%) Guelph (4%) and McMaster (4%).

To What Universities Did Students Confirm an

Offer of Admission?

Nearly all college students (92%) registered in the five

colleges located in or around the City of Toronto: Seneca

(27%), George Brown (22%), Centennial (19%), Humber

(18%) and Sheridan (5%).

To What Ontario Colleges Did Students Confirm an Offer of

Admission?

VI.VI. TDSB Post-secondary Pathways of TDSB Post-secondary Pathways of the Grade 9 Cohortthe Grade 9 Cohort

We put the 5 years of confirmations data, and the six year cohort

study, together in a variable that combines outcomes from when

the students started in Grade 9 in Fall 2000, until the final year of

applications in the 'direct transition' in 2007-8:

43.1% confirmed an offer of acceptance from university;

13.9% confirmed an offer of acceptance from college;

7.3% applied to post-secondary but did not confirm any offer;

10.0% graduated, but did not apply to post-secondary;

24.0% dropped out, and did not apply to post-secondary.

Putting Confirmations and Graduation Putting Confirmations and Graduation

Patterns Together: Post-secondary PathwaysPatterns Together: Post-secondary Pathways

A Few Key Points:

Speaking English and being born in and out of Canada in

themselves are not especially important (similar to what we

found in the earlier study) although the lower-achieving

categories are a bit more likely to be born in Canada and

speaking English only.

The two extremes are confirmation to university on one side,

and dropout on the other.

The key differences are gender, streaming, Grade 9

performance, and SES.

Post-secondary PathwaysPost-secondary Pathways

Next Steps?Next Steps?

The Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000:The Grade 9 Cohort of Fall 2000:

Post-secondary Pathways Post-secondary Pathways Preliminary AnalysisPreliminary Analysis

Presentation to HEQCO - June 15, 2009

Dr. Robert S. BrownOrganizational Development/

Research and Information Services

Toronto District School Board

Thank youR08(Grade 9 Cohort\Gr9Cohort PPTs\heqc04June09)