the granite state poll - cola.unh.edu · 2020 democraˠc primary a large majority of likely democra...

TheGraniteStatePoll

April 25, 2018

SANDERS & BIDEN REMAIN FRONTRUNNERS; GOP PRIMARY VOTERS PREFER TRUMP OVER KASICH THREE TO ONE

By: Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Sean P. McKinley, M.A. cola.unh.edu/survey-center

DURHAM, NH – Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden connue to be early frontrunners for the 2020 New Hampshire presidenal primary,although most Democrac primary voters are sll trying to make up their minds who to support. Most Republicans are also trying todecide who to support, but just over half say they plan to vote for Trump in the 2020 primary. Two-thirds of Republican primary voterswould vote for Trump in a hypothecal matchup with Ohio Governor John Kasich.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundredand forty-eight (548) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone betweenApril 13 and April 22, 2018. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.2 percent. Included in the sample were 208 likely 2020Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.8 percent) and 188 likely 2020 Democrac Primary voters (margin of samplingerror +/- 7.1 percent).

Interest in 2020 New Hampshire Presidenal Primary

With nearly two years unl the 2020 New Hampshire presidenal primary, just over half of Granite Staters (52%) say they are extremelyinterested in the primary, while just under a quarter (26%) are very interested, 13% are somewhat interested, and 8% are not veryinterested. Interest in the 2020 primary is largely unchanged since February (52% extremely interested) and is higher than in April 2014and April 2010, the last two similar points in the presidenal electoral cycle.

Democrats (63%) are slightly more likely than Republicans (54%) to say they are extremely interested while only one-third (33%) ofIndependents agree. The percentage of Democrats who are extremely interested is unchanged since February but interest amongRepublicans has slightly declined in that me.

* We ask that this copyrighted informaon be referred to as the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Apr 2010 Apr 2014 Feb 2018 Apr 2018

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

48% 48% 46%51%

41%

34%

42%

50%55%

63%

40%

59%

52%

63%

33%

54%

Extremely Interested in Primary

OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican

2020 Democrac Primary

A large majority of likely Democrac primary voters (90%) say they are sll trying to decide who they will support in 2020, while 5%each say they are leaning towards someone or have definitely decided. Slightly more respondents than in February (87%) say they aresll trying to decide.

Apr 2010 Apr 2014 Feb 2018 Apr 2018

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

83%80%

83%86%

78% 79%

72%

81%76%

81%

58%

87%

73%77%

56%

82%

Will Definitely Vote in Primary - By Party ID

OVERALL Democrat Independent Republican

While respondents say they are more interested in the presidenal primary than at the same point in previous electoral cycles, slightlyfewer respondents currently say they will definitely vote in the 2020 New Hampshire presidenal primary compared to previous years.

Overall, 73% say they will definitely vote in the 2020 presidenal primary, 12% will vote unless there is an emergency, and 5% each saythey may vote or probably will not vote. Most Democrats (77%) and Republicans (82%) say they will definitely vote in the primary butonly 56% of Independents say they will definitely cast a primary ballot. This trend of Independents being far less willing to say they willdefinitely vote in the primary has connued since February and is unlike previous elecon cycles when Independents were about aslikely as Democrats and Republicans to say they would definitely vote in the forthcoming presidenal primary.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018

94%

87%

90%

4%

8%

5%

5%

5%

Definitely Decided on Candidate - Democrac Primary Voters

Definitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone Still Trying To Decide

Ruben Gallego

Nancy Pelosi

Michelle Obama

Joseph Kennedy IIIJeanne Shaheen

Eric Holder

Chuck Schumer

Martin O'Malley

Kamala HarrisJohn Hickenlooper Cory BookerHillary Clinton

Joe Biden

Elizabeth Warren

Bernie Sanders

Preferred Democrac 2020 Presidenal Nominaon Candidate - Open-ended

October 2017 February 2018 April 2018

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Bernie Sanders

Joe Biden

Elizabeth Warren

Kamala Harris

Cory Booker

Joseph Kennedy III

Martin O'Malley

Kirsten Gillibrand

John Hickenlooper

Amy Klobuchar

Tim Ryan

John Delaney

Other

Undecided 11%

5%

0%

1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

6%

1%

13%

24%

31%

15%

4%

0%

0%

2%

1%

3%

1%

15%

35%

24%

26%

13%

2%

0%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

6%

11%

28%

Preferred Democrac 2020 Presidenal Nominaon Candidate - List

When provided a list of potenal candidates to choose from for the 2020 nominaon, 28% of likely Democrac primary voters choosethe 2016 NH winner, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, 26% choose former Vice President Joe Biden, and 11% favor MassachusesSenator Elizabeth Warren. Fewer likely voters choose Kamala Harris (6%), Cory Booker (5%), Joseph Kennedy III (3%), Marn O'Malley(2%), Kirsten Gillibrand (1%), John Hickenlooper (1%), Amy Klobuchar (1%), or Tim Ryan (<1%). Two percent of respondents menonedanother candidate while 13% remain undecided.

Support for Sanders (28%) has slightly increased since February (24%), while support for Biden (26%) has fallen since February (35%).Support for Warren (11%) has slightly declined since February while Kamala Harris (6%) now garners the fourth highest support in thefield.

Likely Democrac primary voters who live in the Conneccut Valley or Manchester Area, and those aged 18 to 34 are more likely thanothers to support Sanders.

Most Democrac primary voters (59%) remain undecided or cannot provide a name when asked an open-ended queson about whomthey would support. Democrac primary voters most frequently menon Bernie Sanders (14%), Joe Biden (11%), Elizabeth Warren (3%),Cory Booker (3%), and Hillary Clinton (2%). Results were similar to those in February as well as October 2017.

2020 Republican Primary

Only one quarter (24%) of Republican primary voters say they have definitely decided whom they will support for the 2020 Republicanpresidenal primary, a slight decrease since February (30%). Eleven percent of Republican primary voters say they are leaning towardsomeone while two-thirds (66%) are sll trying to decide.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 24%

30%

18%

11%

8%

5%

66%

63%

77%

Definitely Decided on Candidate - Republican Primary Voters


0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 55%

60%

47%

19%

18%

23%

27%

23%

30%

Plan on Vong for Trump or Other Republican Candidate?

Vote For Trump Vote For Other Candidate DK/Not Sure

Fiy-five percent of likely Republican primary voters say they plan on vong for Donald Trump in the 2020 New Hampshire Republicanpresidenal primary, slightly lower than said so in February (60%). Nineteen percent say they plan on vong for another candidate,while 27% don't know or are unsure.

Likely Republican primary voters who listen to conservave talk radio, those who aend religious services once or twice a month,self-described conservaves, those aged 65 and older, and those who voted for Trump in 2016 are more likely than others to say theyplan on vong for Trump in the 2020 Republican primary while Republican primary voters aged 18 to 34 and self-described moderatesare more likely to say they plan on vong for another candidate.

Support for Trump among Republican primary voters is weaker than the support President Obama enjoyed among Democrats at thesame point in the electoral cycle; 68% of Democrats in April 2010 planned to vote for Obama in the 2012 Democrac presidenalprimary, while 55% of Republicans now say they plan to vote for Trump in the 2020 Republican presidenal primary.

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

October2009

Vote for Obama

Vote For Other Candidate

Don't Know/Not Sure

February2010

Vote for Obama


Don't Know/Not Sure

April 2010 Vote for Obama


Don't Know/Not Sure

October2017

Vote For Trump


DK/Not Sure

February2018

Vote For Trump


DK/Not Sure

April 2018 Vote For Trump


DK/Not Sure

30%

5%

64%

36%

8%

56%

26%

6%

68%

30%

23%

47%

23%

18%

60%

27%

19%

55%

Plan on Vong for Incumbent President in Primary

14%

67%

19%

0%

Vote For Trump

Vote For Kasich


DK/Not Sure

Prospecve 2020 NH Republican Presidenal Primary Matchup

Ohio Governor John Kasich recently visited New Hampshire where he hinted at a challenge to Trump. In a hypothecal matchupbetween Trump and Kasich, two-thirds (67%) of likely Republican primary voters say they would vote for Trump, 19% would vote forKasich, less than 1% would vote for another candidate, and 14% don't know or are unsure.

Likely Republican primary voters who listen to conservave talk radio, self-idenfied Independents, those who aend religious servicesonce or twice a month, Massachuses Border residents, those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, and self-described conservavesare more likely than others to say they would vote for Trump in a Republican primary between Trump and Kasich. College graduatesand self-described moderates are more likely than others to say they would vote for Kasich in this matchup.

Trump vs. Kasich

Granite State Poll MethodologyThese findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Five hundredand forty-eight (548) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone betweenApril 13 and April 22, 2018. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.2 percent. Included in the sample were 208 likely 2020Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.8 percent) and 188 likely 2020 Democrac Primary voters (margin of samplingerror +/- 7.1 percent). The design effect for the survey is 1.2%.

The random sample used in the Granite State Poll was purchased from Markeng Systems Group (MSG), Horsham, PA. MSG screenseach selected telephone number to eliminate non-working numbers, disconnected numbers, and business numbers to improve theefficiency of the sample, reducing the amount of me interviewers spend calling non-usable numbers. When a landline number isreached, the interviewer randomly selects a member of the household by asking to speak with the adult currently living in thehousehold who has had the most recent birthday. This selecon process ensures that every adult (18 years of age or older) in thehousehold has an equal chance of being included in the survey.

The data have been weighted to adjust for numbers of adults and telephone lines within households. Addionally, data were weightedby respondent sex, age, educaon, and region of the state to targets from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS)conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. In addion to potenal sampling error, all surveys have other potenal sources of non-samplingerror including queson order effects, queson wording effects, and non-response. Due to rounding, percentages may not sum to100%. The number of respondents in each demographic below may not equal the number reported in cross-tabulaon tables as somerespondents choose not to answer some quesons.

For more informaon about the methodology used in the Granite State Poll, contact Dr. Andrew Smith at (603) 862-2226 or by email [email protected].

Granite State Poll, Spring 2018 Demographics

N

Sex of Respondent Female

Male

Age of Respondent 18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Level of Education High school or less

Technical school/Some college

College graduate

Postgraduate work

Region of State Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

Registered to Vote Reg. Democrat

Registered Undeclared/Not Reg.

Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

269

279

104

148

132

142

69

106

207

158

91

41

142

103

84

86

128

300

116

185

131

218

%

49%

51%

20%

28%

25%

27%

13%

20%

38%

29%

17%

8%

26%

19%

15%

16%

23%

55%

21%

35%

24%

41%


October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 90%

87%

94%

5%

8%

4%

5%

5%

2%


Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or have youconsidered some candidates but are sll trying to decide?

N

185

219

196

AmyKlobuchar

BernieSanders Cory Booker

ElizabethWarren Joe Biden

JosephKennedy III John Delaney

JohnHickenlooper

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 1%

2%

0%

0%

3%26%

35%

24%

11%

15%

13%

5%

3%

6%

28%

24%

31%

1%

0%

1%


Now, I'm going to read you a list of some candidates who are running or could run for the Democrac nominaon. If the Democracprimary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Democrac nominaon: Joe Biden, Cory Booker,John Delaney, Eric Garce , Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Joseph Kennedy III, Amy Klobuchar, Marn O'Malley,Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or someone else? (Candidates rotated)

N

184

223

211

Kamala HarrisKirstenGillibrand

MarkZuckerberg

MartinO'Malley Tim Ryan Other Undecided

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 13%

15%

11%

2%

4%

5%

0%

1%

2%

1%

3%2%

1%

2%

1%

6%

1%

1%

Interest in Primary

I know it is a long way away, but as you know, the New Hampshire Presidenal Primary is being held in 2020. How interested would yousay you are in the 2020 New Hampshire Presidenal Primary elecon?

Somewhat Interested Not Very Interested DK/Not Sure Extremely interested Very interested

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 26%

24%

27%

52%

55%

47%

1%

1%

0%

8%

7%

8%

13%

13%

18%

N

548

523

570

Likelihood of Vong in 2020 Presidenal Primary

Which of the following statements best describes you?

Definitely vote inPrimary

Will vote in Primaryunless emergency May vote in Primary

Probably not vote inPrimary Unsure

October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 5%

6%

7%

5%

5%

2%

5%

4%

5%

12%

9%

11%

73%

76%

74%

N

546

517

567

Plan on Vong for Trump in 2020 Republican Primary or Another Candidate - Republican Primary Voters

Do you plan on vong for Donald Trump in the 2020 New Hampshire Republican primary or do you plan to vote for another Republicancandidate?


October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 27%

23%

30%

19%

18%

23%

55%

60%

47%

N

204

157

183


Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone...or have youconsidered some candidates but are sll trying to decide?


October 2017

February 2018

April 2018 66%

63%

77%

11%

8%

5%

24%

30%

18%

N

204

157

183

Prospecve 2020 NH Republican Presidenal Primary Matchup - Trump vs. Kasich

If the Republican primary for president were held today, and the candidates were Donald Trump and John Kasich, who would yousupport for the Republican nominaon? (Candidates rotated)

Vote For Trump Vote For Kasich Vote For Other Candidate DK/Not Sure

April 2018 14%0%19%67%

N

208

ExtremelyInterested Very Interested

SomewhatInterested

Not VeryInterested

Don't Know/NotSure

STATEWIDE 1%8%13%26%52%

Interest in Primary

N

548

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative

Media Usage Listen to Conserv. Radio

Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe

Read Local Newspapers

Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work

FrequencyAttendingRelig. Services

Once a week or more

Once or twice a month

Few times a year

Never

2016PresidentialVote

Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote

Gun Owner inHousehold

Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner

Veteran/Activein Household

Active/Veteran Military

No Active/Veteran Military

Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast

CongressionalDistrict

First Congressional District

Second Congressional District

22%

28%

25%

59%

43%

70%

1%

7%

11%

13%

17%

4%

25%

28%

26%

54%

33%

63%

2%

1%

7%

13%

5%

14%

25%

5%

24%

35%

14%

55%

43%

78%

1%

1%

8%

8%

3%

13%

12%

4%

27%

33%

26%

24%

26%

18%

53%

50%

60%

65%

60%

68%

0%

1%

8%

7%

7%

3%

6%

3%

12%

10%

7%

8%

7%

11%

25%

27%

23%

31%

58%

53%

58%

39%

0%

2%

4%

7%

9%

9%

13%

10%

9%

21%

27%

25%

49%

55%

0%

1%

9%

7%

15%

12%

14%

19%

31%

30%

75%

66%

42%

46%

1%

1%

1%

5%

4%

10%

10%

5%

11%

17%

13%

26%

27%

32%

23%

50%

54%

43%

58%

0%

1%

2%

9%

6%

8%

9%

15%

11%

15%

10%

30%

20%

26%

26%

22%

50%

67%

51%

1%

3%

1%

19%

13%

1%

9%

28%

15%

6%

14%

28%

25%

52%

51%

1%

0%

6%

10%

13%

13%

27%

24%

54%

47%

1%5%

16%

13%

13%

24%

28%

30%

15%

29%

27%

52%

38%

43%

61%

59%

58%

1%

1%

2%

10%

18%

8%

5%

3%

9%

14%

16%

17%

18%

7%

6%

27%

25%

50%

54%

1%

0%

8%

8%

14%

12%

128

300

116

185

131

218

166

206

120

275

84

169

58

138

58

104

148

132

142

269

279

69

106

207

158

250

138

48

97

78

54

188

206

268

260

396

145

91

41

142

103

84

86

270

278

Definitely votein Primary

Will vote inPrimary unlessemergency

May vote inPrimary

Probably notvote in Primary Unsure

STATEWIDE 5%5%5%12%73%

Likelihood of Vong in 2020 Presidenal Primary

N

546

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




1%

8%

2%

0%

7%

3%

2%

7%

3%

14%

13%

9%

83%

65%

83%

1%

11%

4%

3%

7%

5%

3%

9%

3%

12%

16%

12%

82%

56%

77%

4%

4%

4%

2%

6%

4%

2%

6%

3%

12%

16%

5%

80%

69%

84%

4%

3%

3%

0%

2%

5%

4%

4%

3%

4%

2%

5%

1%

4%

4%

2%

4%

13%

12%

16%

15%

12%

15%

73%

81%

73%

78%

81%

77%

3%

6%

3%

5%

2%

6%

5%

5%

3%

1%

5%

10%

16%

11%

10%

16%

76%

76%

78%

63%

6%

4%

4%

6%

4%

6%

12%

13%

74%

72%

1%

5%

7%

4%

6%

7%

4%

5%

5%

5%

8%

8%

14%

16%

88%

82%

70%

64%

7%

2%

5%

5%

6%

4%

4%

7%

3%

1%

6%

11%

13%

20%

14%

71%

75%

71%

76%

17%

2%

1%

3%

18%

5%

2%

3%

19%

5%

2%

2%

13%

19%

11%

13%

32%

69%

84%

78%

6%

3%

6%

5%

6%

4%

13%

12%

69%

77%

4%

6%

4%

9%

6%

3%

13%

12%

74%

71%

2%

9%

9%

4%

1%

5%

8%

6%

3%

1%

7%

6%

8%

3%

7%

4%

3%

1%

14%

15%

8%

5%

22%

16%

67%

67%

73%

85%

68%

73%

5%

4%

5%

5%

4%

6%

14%

11%

72%

74%

128

298

116

185

131

216

166

205

119

273

84

169

57

138

58

104

147

131

142

269

277

68

105

207

158

248

138

48

97

76

54

188

206

266

260

394

145

91

41

141

102

84

86

268

278


STATEWIDE 90%5%5%


N

185

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




94%

87%

3%

6%

3%

7%

100%

100%

88%6%

0%

6%

100%

94%

86%

6%

5%

0%

10%

95%

91%

93%

80%

92%

100%

4%

9%

5%

10%

4%

2%

2%

11%

4%

92%

92%

87%

88%

4%

3%

1%

10%

4%

5%

11%

1%

89%

91%

9%

2%

3%

7%

88%

88%

93%

90%

5%

6%

10%

8%

6%

7%

84%

95%

100%

97%

7%

3%

2%

9%

3%

1%

88%

80%

91%

100%

10%

4%

12%

10%

5%

90%

89%

4%

6%

6%

5%

90%

90%

4%

6%

6%

4%

93%

96%

85%

79%

94%

92%

4%

4%

10%

2%

6%

1%

2%

5%

19%

6%

90%

90%

7%

3%

3%

7%

79

106

3

26

155

13

76

91

98

20

75

25

74

1

44

39

47

50

72

114

37

47

56

44

94

48

15

25

5

19

150

7

110

73

148

36

38

15

28

28

40

35

94

91

Amy Klobuchar Bernie Sanders Cory Booker Elizabeth Warren Joe Biden

STATEWIDE 26%11%5%28%1%


Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




28%

25%

6%

16%

7%

4%

30%

27%

0%

1%

19%

23%

27%

3%

13%

1%

6%

32%

29%1%

18%

25%

28%

8%

16%

8%

3%

38%

34%

22%

1%

0%

32%

29%

26%

25%

25%

43%

11%

13%

12%

5%

16%

7%

3%

8%

16%

8%

23%

27%

25%

18%

18%

1%

1%

1%

1%

30%

29%

17%

29%

16%

9%

12%

9%

10%

6%

4%

1%

23%

21%

27%

42%

1%

2%

27%

26%

12%

11%

4%

6%

29%

28%

2%

23%

28%

31%

22%

13%

13%

11%

8%

8%

6%

3%

4%

13%

19%

40%

37%

4%

23%

23%

39%

33%

14%

11%

8%

7%

4%

8%

3%

3%

35%

24%

19%

21%

1%

3%

38%

23%

28%

13%

12%

2%

14%6%

66%

26%

8%

1%

28%

24%

11%

13%

5%

5%

27%

30%

1%

1%

28%

18%

11%

13%

4%

9%

27%

37%

0%

2%

34%

21%

19%

20%

29%

29%

1%

17%

18%

11%

7%

21%

6%

10%

2%

5%

2%

7%

13%

18%

22%

41%

45%

26%

1%

2%

1%

29%

24%

10%

13%

2%

8%

32%

25%

0%

1%

Joseph Kennedy III John Hickenlooper Kamala Harris Kirsten Gillibrand

STATEWIDE 1%6%1%3%


Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




1%

2%

7%

6%

1%

1%

2%

4%

58%

1%

12%

5%1%4%

2%

1%

23%

9%2%

16%

4%

1%

2%

2%

1%

8%

14%

4%

4%

5%

2%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

9%

6%

4%

2%

3%

4%

17%

5%

2%

5%

6%

2%

3%

8%

1%

1%

5%

2%

3%

3%

11%

5%

3%

7%

4%

1%6%

2%

5%

1%

6%

6%

9%

6%

2%1%

8%

9%

1%6%

40%

1%4%

2%7%

5%

2%2%

4%

2%5%

10%

1%

1%

3%

3%

3%

5%

8%

10%

10%

5%

1%

2%

3%

4%

11%

2%

3%6%

6%

2%

1%

4%

2%

Martin O'Malley Tim Ryan Other Undecided

STATEWIDE 13%2%0%2%


N

184

Registered toVote

Reg. Democrat


Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




12%

13%

4%

0%

2%

2%

23%

18%

11%

9%

1%0%

2%

2%

5%

14%

13%

2%

2%

0%1%

2%

8%

11%

11%

16%

10%

3%

4%0%

2%

3%

2%

4%

3%

57%

10%

12%

12%

16%

4%

2%

0%2%

3%

3%

11%

14%

1%

2%

0%4%

0%

15%

18%

5%

14%

1%

3%

2%

0%

6%

2%

11%

12%

14%

18%

2%

2%

5%

0%1%

2%

3%

2%

30%

9%

12%

29%

20%

10%

0%2%

13%

12%

1%

3%0%

2%

2%

14%

7%

2%0%2%

24%

29%

16%

8%

3%

7%

6%

3%

1%

3%

6%

1%

2%

10%

16%

1%

2%

0%2%

2%

78

107

3

25

155

13

75

90

97

20

75

25

72

1

45

39

48

48

72

112

37

48

56

42

95

46

16

25

5

19

149

8

108

75

150

34

38

15

29

28

40

34

92

92


STATEWIDE 66%11%24%


N

204

Registered toVote


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




63%

71%

14%

6%

24%

22%

65%

63%

92%

10%

17%

25%

20%

8%

58%

80%

62%

12%

7%

38%

29%

12%

71%

73%

65%

74%

72%

44%

9%

20%

14%

20%

13%

23%

19%

7%

21%

6%

15%

33%

72%

63%

62%

71%

16%

11%

5%

14%

12%

26%

33%

15%

63%

69%

12%

9%

25%

22%

76%

69%

69%

59%

7%

18%

4%

17%

17%

14%

27%

23%

73%

59%

68%

66%

8%

11%

17%

12%

19%

30%

15%

22%

76%

83%

100%

61%

17%

12%

24%

27%

68%

69%

10%

10%

22%

21%

66%

66%

9%

15%

25%

19%

69%

59%

60%

74%

55%

74%

12%

25%

8%

12%

14%

5%

19%

16%

32%

15%

31%

22%

70%

62%

9%

13%

21%

26%

122

81

155

32

13

122

64

5

100

40

57

19

37

45

38

64

54

40

122

82

18

37

86

59

80

48

16

55

16

18

11

153

68

124

134

67

28

15

64

46

21

31

104

100


STATEWIDE 27%19%55%

Plan on Vong for Trump in 2020 Republican Primary or Another Candidate - Republican Primary Voters

N

205

Registered toVote


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




32%

19%

10%

32%

58%

49%

25%

28%

42%

18%

13%

45%

57%

58%

14%

22%

41%

29%

8%

27%

52%

70%

32%

19%

34%

35%

21%

25%

27%

9%

15%

21%

19%

31%

23%

4%

52%

44%

60%

44%

51%

87%

19%

32%

30%

18%

11%

8%

23%

39%

70%

61%

48%

43%

22%

33%

18%

20%

60%

46%

42%

28%

22%

28%

19%

25%

17%

18%

39%

47%

61%

54%

32%

28%

16%

22%

19%

19%

13%

21%

49%

53%

71%

57%

29%

17%

39%

27%

36%

72%

61%

5%

35%

10%

68%

34%

22%

24%

17%

42%

61%

24%

31%

22%

13%

54%

55%

42%

29%

23%

22%

22%

29%

15%

18%

13%

30%

21%

18%

43%

53%

64%

48%

57%

54%

22%

32%

19%

19%

59%

50%

121

83

156

31

14

122

63

5

97

38

56

19

37

45

35

64

55

43

122

82

18

37

87

60

79

50

16

53

16

17

12

151

70

123

136

65

29

15

65

45

21

30

104

101

Vote For Trump Vote For KasichVote For OtherCandidate DK/Not Sure

STATEWIDE 14%0%19%67%

Prospecve 2020 NH Republican Presidenal Primary Matchup - Trump vs. Kasich

N

208

Registered toVote


Reg. Republican

Party ID Democrat

Independent

Republican

Ideology Liberal

Moderate

Conservative


Listen to NHPR

Read Boston Globe


Read Union Leader

Watch WMUR

Age ofRespondent

18 to 34

35 to 49

50 to 64

65 and older

Sex ofRespondent

Female

Male

Level ofEducation

High school or less


College graduate

Postgraduate work


Once a week or more


Few times a year

Never


Donald Trump

Hillary Clinton

Voted for Other

Did Not Vote


Gun Owner

Not Gun Owner




Region ofState

Central / Lakes

Connecticut Valley

Manchester Area

Mass Border

North Country

Seacoast




11%

18%0%

17%

21%

72%

60%

17%

7%

3%

18%

5%

57%

65%

88%

40%

9%

22%

6%

10%

32%

23%

81%

46%

71%

15%

7%

7%

12%

14%

0%

1%

1%

19%

27%

17%

9%

23%

4%

66%

67%

75%

79%

62%

96%

5%

7%

23%

22%

26%

17%

16%

14%

70%

76%

62%

64%

9%

22%

0%18%

20%

73%

58%

16%

8%

14%

18%

25%

30%

13%

19%

59%

63%

74%

63%

22%

9%

3%

12%

14%

26%

10%

22%

65%

65%

87%

66%

28%

25%

26%

9%

2%

15%

59%

74%

9%

57%

15%

82%

22%

9%

26%

16%

52%

76%

15%

13%

21%

13%

64%

74%

23%

14%

5%

22%

10%

17%

0%

16%

25%

9%

18%

23%

35%

61%

61%

86%

60%

67%

48%

11%

17%0%

18%

19%

70%

64%

122

84

157

32

14

122

66

5

100

39

57

19

37

45

38

64

54

43

124

83

17

38

88

62

82

50

16

54

16

18

12

153

70

127

137

67

29

15

65

46

23

30

105

103

the granite state poll - cola.unh.edu · 2020 democraˠc primary a large majority of likely democra...

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