the graying job market in the atlanta region & the economic impact this portends

Age Trends in the Workforce:

The Graying Job Market & the Potential Economic Impact This Portends for the Atlanta Region

September 2014

Atlanta Regional Commission

For more information, contact:

[email protected]

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ATL

US

Metro Atlanta Still Outperforming Nation in Employment Growth

So here’s the pattern: During recessions, metro Atlanta lags the nation in employment growth and it takes longer for the job market to recover locally when compared to the national recovery. But once it recovers, it really takes off. Metro Atlanta has outpaced the nation in year-over-year job change (percent change) each month since March of 2012. Note: This chart is for the 28-coount Metropolitan Statistical Area. The subsequent charts will focus on the 10 core counties of the Atlanta region, except where noted.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment in the 10-County Atlanta Region Still Below Recession Levels

County Total, 2000 Total, 2008 Total, 2013

Cherokee 26,284 41,813 41,286

Clayton 107,477 95,121 107,670

Cobb 250,634 305,412 280,448

DeKalb 284,524 268,887 250,823

Douglas 26,204 35,960 33,720

Fayette 26,607 32,820 33,992

Fulton 657,862 649,997 645,884

Gwinnett 241,837 290,204 282,485

Henry 24,271 42,286 44,260

Rockdale 28,041 28,029 27,527

ARC: 10-County Total 1,673,741 1,790,529 1,748,095

First, the good news: The 10 core counties of the Atlanta region have about 75,000 more jobs today than in 2000. Now, the bad news: There are still 42,000 fewer jobs in the first quarter of 2013 than in the first quarter of 2008, when the effects of the Great Recession were beginning to be felt. Clayton County, home to Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, was the only county to add a significant number of jobs since 2008. Note: All totals in this analysis are for the first quarter of the year reported.

Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau

Jobs Added in Older Age Cohorts, Despite Overall Loss of Jobs


The chart on the left shows that even before the recession, job losses began to concentrate in the 25-34 year old age cohort. This is despite an overall increase of almost 117,000 jobs during that period. Demographics explains most of this decrease in jobs among the 25-34 age cohort as well as the job increases in the older age cohorts. The structure of the job market has something to do with this as well. We’ll discuss that part of the equation later in this presentation. The chart of the right shows that the jobs losses in the younger age cohorts continued after the Great Recession. And, despite an overall loss of 42,000 jobs between 2008 and 2013, the older age cohorts experienced job increases. People are working longer, either because of better health or out of necessity because of the economic damage wrought by the Great Recession. Either way, labor force participation rates are falling for the younger age cohorts and rising for the older cohorts. Need proof? Go here.

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14-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Job Change by Age Group, 2000-2008

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Job Change by Age Group, 2008-2013

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_303.htm

Wages Highest in 55-64 Cohort


As of 2013 (Q1), the 55-64 age cohort had the highest average monthly wage at $5,991 per month (roughly $72,000 per year. The 35-54 age cohort had essentially the same monthly wage, at $5,880 per month ($71,000 per year). As you would expect, the 14-24 year cohort has the lowest average monthly wage. In subsequent slides, we will show the job sectors that each age cohort cluster in, which will help explain the differing wages in each group. Note: This chart is for the 28-county Metropolitan Statistical Area.

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14-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Average Monthly Wage by Age Group, 2013 (Q1) 28-County Metro Atlanta

Wage for Older Age Cohorts Growing (particularly for 65+)


Let’s face it – the job market has been tough for younger age cohorts. Not only are there fewer jobs held by the younger age cohorts, the jobs they still retain are paying less today than they used to. This trend began prior to the recession but only continued afterward. At the other end of the age spectrum, average wages have shot up dramatically for the 65+ age cohort. Again, people are staying in the workforce longer, and for these workers who typically already have been in the workforce for a while, wages tend to be higher. So, in this case, it isn’t necessarily that average wages for 65+ workers are dramatically increasing, as the chart indicates. But, rather, 65+ workers are staying in higher-paying jobs longer today than they were previously. Regardless of the details, the 65+ age cohort is increasing its economic strength. Go here to read the Economist’s take on this phenomenon.

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14-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Change in Monthly Wages, 2000-2008

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14-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

Change in Monthly Wages, 2008-2013

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21601253-ageing-economy-will-be-slower-and-more-unequal-oneunless-policy-starts-changing-now

Share of Jobs by Age Cohort, 2013 (Q1)


For the most part, the share of jobs by age cohort stays relatively constant across counties. There are small differences, however, depending on the type of job market each county has. For example, 15 percent of all jobs in Cherokee County are held by those age 14-24 (the bottom, blue bar in the chart above), the highest percentage in the region. Workers age 14-24 overwhelmingly work in service industries such as Retail, Food/Accommodation and Arts/Entertainment. (See the next slide to see each county’s three largest job sectors). In Clayton County, 52 percent of jobs are held by those age 35-54. Workers in this age cohort are heavily concentrated in the Transportation/Warehousing sector, i.e. jobs at the Airport.

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Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale 10-Counties

65+

55-64

35-54

25-34

14-24

Characteristics of Job Markets by County, 2013


The job markets in more suburban counties rely more heavily on the Retail sector than do the more urban counties of Clayton, DeKalb and Fulton. As you can see, these latter three counties are the only ones where the Retail sector is NOT the largest. Education and Healthcare are also important sectors in more suburban counties, although this is also true in places like DeKalb (which has Emory University) and Fulton (which has several large hospitals). This, of course, has ramifications for the age distribution among local job markets, as seen on the previous and forthcoming slides.

Largest Sector Second Largest Sector Third Largest Sector

Cherokee Retail Education Food/Accommodation

Clayton Trans./Warehousing Retail Education

Cobb Retail Healthcare Professional/Technical

DeKalb Healthcare Education Retail

Douglas Retail Education Healthcare

Fayette Retail Healthcare Education

Fulton Professional/Technical Healthcare Admin/Waste Mgt.

Gwinnett Retail Wholesale Trade Education

Henry Retail Education Healthcare

Rockdale Retail Manufacturing Healthcare

10-County Region Retail Healthcare Professional/Technical

Profile: Workers Age 14-24


Key points: • The share of workers age 14-24 is DECLINING in the 10-county Atlanta region.

In 2000, 11.5 percent of all jobs were held by those age 14-24. This percentage had dropped slightly by 2008, but by 2013, the percentage of jobs held by those age 14-24 had dropped to 9.9 percent. This decrease of 1.6 percentage points is second largest, behind only the 25-34 age cohort.

• Age 14-24 workers are more likely to work in Food/Accommodation, Arts/Entertainment or Retail Trade.1 These are among the lowest-paying sectors in the region

• These same sectors have expanded in importance for the 14-24 age cohort, meaning that in 2013, there were heavier concentrations of workers age 14-24 in these industries than there were in 2000.

• Cherokee County has the highest percentage of 14-24 workers (15 percent), followed by Henry (13.9%) and Douglas (13.5%)

1. For this, we compared the percentage of jobs in each industry for the 14-24 age cohort to the percentage of jobs in each industry for all ages. By comparing these two percentages, you get a “location quotient” that allows us to derive how the 14-24 age cohort is concentrated by industry.

Profile: Workers Age 14-24 (Most Popular Sectors, 2013, Q1)


This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 14-24, or which sectors that this age cohort is more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 14-24 are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Food/Accommodation, Arts/Entertainment and Retail trade are the most popular sectors for this age cohort.

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Public Administration

Wholesale Trade

Finance and Insurance

Manufacturing

Information

Educational Services

Trans and Ware

Real Estate Rental and Leasing

Prof, Sci, and Tech Serv

Health Care and Social Assistance

Management

Construction

Admin/Support. & Waste Mang

Other Services (except Pub Adm)

Retail Trade

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Accommodation and Food Services

More Concentrated Less Concentrated

Profile: Workers Age 14-24 (Expanding Sectors, 2000-2013)


This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 14-24, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 14-24 year-old workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 14-24 have increased their concentrations in these sectors since 2000. So, while Food/Accommodation, Arts/Entertainment and Retail Trade are the most popular sectors today for this age cohort, they have become even more popular since 2000.

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Construction

Information



Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Management

Trans and Ware





Retail Trade



Becoming less “popular” Becoming more “popular”




In 2000, 27.2 percent of all jobs were held by those age 25-34. This percentage dropped dramatically by 2008, to 23.2 percent. By 2013, the percentage of jobs held by those age 25-34 had dropped to 21.9 percent. This decrease of 5.3 percentage points is the largest experienced by any age cohort. Demographics play a large role in this decrease, but so does the shifting nature of the region’s job market.

• Age 25-34 workers are more likely to work in Food/Accommodation, Arts/Entertainment or Professional/Technical sectors.1 The first two sectors are among the lowest-paying sectors in the region, but the Professional/Technical sector is among the highest-paying.

• The sectors that are expanding for this age cohort, however, are Food/Accommodation, Retail, Arts/Entertainment and Healthcare. Again, these (with the exception of Healthcare) are among the lowest-paying sectors in the region.

• Fulton County has the highest percentage of 25-34 workers (22.7 percent), followed by Cobb (22.1%) and DeKalb (21.8%)




This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 25-34, or which sectors that this age cohort is more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 25-34 are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Food/Accommodation, Arts/Entertainment and Professional/Technical are the most popular sectors for this age cohort.

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Manufacturing

Trans and Ware

Wholesale Trade



Management

Information

Construction






Retail Trade




Less Concentrated More Concentrated



This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 25-34, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 25-34 year-old workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 25-34 have increased their concentrations in these sectors since 2000. So, while Food/Accommodation, Arts/Entertainment and Professional/Technical are the most popular sectors today for this age cohort, Food/Accommodation and Arts/Entertainment have become even more popular since 2000.


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Information

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Trans and Ware





Construction

Management






Retail Trade





In 2000, 50.4 percent of all jobs were held by those age 35-54. This percentage held steady to 2008, but dropped slightly, to 49.6 percent, by 2013.

• Age 35-54 workers are more likely to work in the Information, Transportation/Warehousing or Wholesale Trade sectors.1 Atlanta is obviously a hub for transportation-related jobs, and each of these sectors pay better than average wages, with Information having one of the highest average wages in the region.

• The sectors that are expanding for this age cohort, however, are Information, Real Estate, and Professional/Technical. Each of these sectors are well-paying.

• Clayton County has the highest percentage of 35-54 workers (52 percent), followed by Fulton (50.9%) and Gwinnett (49.2%)




This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 35-54, or which sectors that this age cohort is more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 35-54 are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Information, Transportation/Warehousing and Wholesale Trade are the most popular sectors for this age cohort.


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Retail Trade







Construction

Management



Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Trans and Ware

Information



This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 35-54, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 35-54 year-old workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 35-54 have increased their concentrations in these sectors since 2000. So, while Information, is the most popular sector today for this age cohort, it has become even more popular since 2000.


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Retail Trade





Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade

Trans and Ware

Management

Construction





Information



Key points: • The share of workers age 55-64 is INCREASING in the 10-county Atlanta region.

In 2000, only 8.8 percent of all jobs were held by those age 55-64. This percentage had increased to 12.6 percent by 2008. By 2013, this percentage had increased to 14.8 percent. This increase of six percentage points is the largest experienced by any age cohort. This reflects both changing demographics – the aging of the Atlanta region – as well as the fact that people are staying in the workforce longer.

• Age 55-64 workers are more likely to work in the Education, Manufacturing or Wholesale Trade sectors.1 Manufacturing, which is a dwindling sector, and Wholesale Trade are well-paying sectors where workers don’t necessarily need a college education to obtain a job.

• The sectors that are expanding for this age cohort, however, are Information, Wholesale Trade, and Finance. Each of these sectors are among the highest-paying in the region.

• Clayton County has the highest percentage of 55-64 workers (16.1 percent), followed by Fayette (16%) and DeKalb (15.4%)




This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 55-64, or which sectors that this age cohort is more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 55-64 are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Education, Manufacturing and Wholesale Trade are the most popular sectors for this age cohort.


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Retail Trade


Information




Management


Construction


Trans and Ware


Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing




This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 55-64, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 55-64 year-old workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 55-64 have increased their concentrations in these sectors since 2000. So, while Education and Manufacturing are the most popular sectors today for this age cohort, Information, Wholesale Trade and Finance are becoming more popular for this age cohort.


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Retail Trade






Construction


Manufacturing


Trans and Ware


Wholesale Trade

Information

Profile: Workers Age 65+


Key points: • The share of workers age 65+ is INCREASING in the 10-county Atlanta region.

In 2000, only 2.1 percent of all jobs were held by those age 65+. This percentage had increased to three percent by 2008. By 2013, this percentage had increased to 3.8 percent. This reflects both changing demographics – the aging of the Atlanta region – as well as the fact that people are staying in the workforce past the traditional retirement age of 65.

• Age 65+ workers are more likely to work in the Education, Other Services (which includes wide-ranging activities from machine repair and grantmaking to personal care and temporary parking services) or Arts/Entertainment.1 These sectors are among the lowest-paying sectors in the region.

• The sectors that are expanding for this age cohort, however, are Transportation/Warehousing, Education, and Manufacturing. The Transportation/Warehousing and Manufacturing sectors each pay a decent wage and don’t necessarily require a college education.

• Fayette County has the highest percentage of 65+ workers (4.7 percent), followed by Cherokee (4.6%) and Rockdale (4.4%)

1. For this, we compared the percentage of jobs in each industry for the 65+ age cohort to the percentage of jobs in each industry for all ages. By comparing these two percentages, you get a “location quotient” that allows us to derive how the 65+ age cohort is concentrated by industry.

Profile: Workers Age 65+ (Most Popular Sectors, 2013, Q1)


This chart shows which are the most “popular” sectors for workers age 65+, or which sectors that this age cohort is more heavily concentrated in. Any value above 1 (or blue bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 65+ are more likely than the average worker, regardless of age, to work in these sectors. Thus, Education, Other Services and Arts/Entertainment are the most popular sectors for this age cohort.


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Information

Trans and Ware

Management





Construction

Wholesale Trade



Retail Trade

Manufacturing





Profile: Workers Age 65+ (Expanding Sectors, 2000-2013)


This chart shows which sectors are expanding for workers age 65+, or which sectors are capturing a greater share of 65+ workers relative to the workforce as a whole. Any value above zero (or red bars that are pointing to the right) means that workers age 65+ have increased their concentrations in these sectors since 2000. So, while Education, Other Services and Arts/Entertainment are the most popular sectors today for this age cohort, Transportation/Warehousing, and Manufacturing are becoming more popular for this age cohort.


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Retail Trade


Construction



Management


Information


Wholesale Trade



Manufacturing


Trans and Ware

the graying job market in the atlanta region & the economic impact this portends

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