the great big developer ecosystem battle 2011 idc oct-11 web ecosystem drilldown history of...
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Copyright 2011 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
The Great Big Developer Ecosystem Battle
Al Hilwa
Program Director
Application Development Software
Oct-11© 2011 IDC2
Agenda
1. Trends
2. Market
3. Surveys
4. Predictions
5. Guidance
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 3
Business Context for App Dev
Consumerization of IT– Mobile devices
– Social networking
– Consumer cloud services
Data Explosion– Tracking, profiles, behaviors, locations, sensors, …
– Content growth, crowd sourcing, video
App platform vs tools– Runtimes are closer to user value
– Bigger opportunity, more users than developers
Indirect monetization
– Tools as platform enablers, and loss-leaders
– Advertising
– AD-as-a-Service
– Open source pressure
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 4
Technical Context for App Dev
The VM-language revolution is almost played-out, esp on the client
– Value: automatic memory, exception handling, strong typing
– Performance, determinism and control remain challenges
– Native (C/C++) still primary language for ISV products
The framework changed everything– Inversion of Control & Dependency Injection now established paradigm
– Successful frameworks (e.g. Spring, Rails, Dojo..) reach critical mass
– Shift to light-weight frameworks
Rise of scripting languages – return of RAD– Productivity and simplicity to bridge complexity
– Narrowing performance gap
– Late-binding seen as more flexible and agile
– Declarative and imperative blending
Configuration-based techniques cannibalize traditional development– E.g. BPM, portal mashups, domain specific languages,…
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
Application Architectures:A Historical Perspective
Distributed application architecture continues to evolve. Logic
and data complexity is increasingly on both clients and servers
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Servers
Mainframes
Clients
Text Terminals
(e.g. VT-100
IBM 3270/5250)
Servers
File-servers,
RDBMSs
Clients
PC Applications
Servers
DB stored
procedures,
Clients
Forms, RAD (e.g.
PowerBuilder)
Servers
Web servers,
App Servers
Clients
HTML Browsers,
RIA Plug-ins
(e.g. Flash,
Silverlight),
Servers
Cloud Platforms
Clients
Smartphones,
Tablets, HTML5
2020
5
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 6
Transformations in Software:The Front-End
The UI: Lynchpin to consumer revolution– Content is the new computing
– Social everything
– Touch revolution
– Web architecture dominates – RIA goes HTML5/JS
– Hardware acceleration
Mobility goes mainstream– PC goes mobile
– Sensor explosion
– Smaller apps, bigger runtimes
– App stores and the broadening of app monetization
– Rich developer analytics
– Hard choices: native vs Web
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
Transformations in Software:The Back-End
7
PaaS: cloud platforms scramble to back the front-end
– Programmable provisioning and deployment
– Elasticity and the economics of incrementalism
– Built-in disaster recovery & application availability
– Competing paradigms: virtualization vs multi-tenancy
Development in the cloud maturing rapidly
– Lifecycle in the cloud: build mgmt, open source code analysis,
bug-tracking, project mgmt, style/pattern/component stores,
team collaboration, browser testing, stress testing
– Coming Soon: rich cloud IDEs
Devices & Social generate data – big data
– Content as data (CouchDB, MongoDB)
– No-SQL, schema in the app (Redis)
– Mapping and reducing (Hadoop)
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
Transformations in Software:The Battle of Ecosystems
8
Mobile and cloud platforms build on existing ecosystems
– C/C++ for iOS
– Java for Android
– .NET for Windows Phone & Windows 8
– Web the default for all the others
Race to leverage and expand ecosystems
– Technology alignments and re-alignments
– Battle for developer services: tools, rich platforms, advertising,
payment processing, analytics, marketing support
– Marketplaces for applications & content
Enterprises leverage established ecosystems
– Shortages of enterprise developers
– Ecosystems bridge consumer/enterprise divide
– Consumer clouds attract smaller enterprises, large to follow
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
Web Ecosystem Drilldown
History of challenges for standards-efforts
– Webkit breakthrough
– Scramble for Apple competition
– Video standard ambiguity
HTML5: umbrella for multiple standards
– JavaScript plays starring role (Canvas, Webworker, CSS3 …)
– Standard bodies move faster than ever
Scripting is a key ingredent
– JavaScript, PHP and Ruby are fastest growing languages
– JavaScript being adopted on the server
– Back to the future with RAD languages
– RAD emphasizes client/server synergies
Plug-ins play supporting role
– Pushed to the high-end, evolving into cross-platform runtimes
– Apply heat on standards
9
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
HTML5 Timeline
2011 Desktop & Mobile browsers ship HTML5-capable releases
2016 HTML5-capable desktop browsers reach 90% penetration
HTML5
Nirvana
2010 Major browsers work on implementing HTML5
Google completes On2 acquisition, releases OS license for V8 and WebM
2009
2014 HTML5-capable mobile device installed base reach 90% penetration
… but, Video Codec Wars
continue with WebM
versus H.264 …
Google announces On2 acquisition
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
HTML5 Vs. Plug-ins
HTML Web
Applications
2010 2015
HTML/HTML5 Web
Applications
Increased Richness
Increased Interactivity
Sophisticated Animation
Higher Pixel Fidelity
Special Image/Text Effects
Plug-in
Architectures
(e.g. Flash/Silverlight)
Plug-in
Architectures
(e.g. Flash/Silverlight)
HTML5 will Replace HTML
Plug-ins Continue to Dominate the High-end
Conceptual Pyramids
of all web applications
Oct-11© 2011 IDC12
Agenda
1. Trends
2. Market
3. Surveys
4. Predictions
5. Guidance
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 13
Worldwide AD Vendor RevenueVendor Eye-chart
Source: IDC May 2011
Company2010 Rev.
Company (Cont.)2010 Rev.
Company (Cont.)2010 Rev.
Company (Cont.)2010Rev.
IBM 2,243 Quest Software 28.6 Troux Technologies 13.8 Dell 7.0
Microsoft 1,020 Unisys 27.7 Digital Fuel 13.8 Software FX 6.8
HP 859 VMware 26.4 Corticon 13.5 WebLayers Inc. 6.5
CA Technologies 712 Hitachi 26.4 Casewise 13.1 Xceed 6.4
Compuware 334 iRise 25.9 Altova 12.7 Mainsoft 6.4
Adobe 293 Mentor Graphics 25.9 Versata 12.5 Transoft 6.4
Oracle 280 Infragistics Corp. 25.7 Polaris Software Lab 12.4 Bison 6.3
Software AG 271 Dynatrace 25.0 Cincom Systems Inc. 11.4 LongJump 6.3
Micro Focus 240 Rally Software Development Corp. 22.6 DMTI Spatial Inc. 11.3 Aspose 6.2
Serena 179 Rogue Wave Software 22.0 AccuRev 10.9 Backbase 6.0
Amazon.com Inc. 118 Progress Software Corp. 21.3 GrapeCity 10.8 Silicon Graphics 6.0
SAS 98 The Salamander Organization 20.9 Metaware 10.5 Empress Software 5.9
Salesforce.com 95 Unicom Systems 20.2 Security Innovation Inc. 10.2 Prima Solutions 5.8
SAP 60 Telerik 20.0 JetBrains 10.2 Interactive Objects 5.7
FICO (formerly Fair Isaac) 58 NEC 19.4 TechExcel Inc. 10.0 Google Inc. 5.6
MKS 51 Aldon 19.3 Prolifics 9.9 Perpetuum Software 5.5
Atlassian 49 Klocwork 19.0 Blueprint 9.4 RadView Software 5.4
Intel Corp. (incl. Wind River) 49 Black Duck Software Inc. 18.5 Intuit 9.4 Visible Systems Corp. 5.3
Fujitsu 48 OPNET 18.4 TIBCO 9.1 Sonoa Systems 5.3
Perforce Software 46 ASG 18.3 Veracode 9.0 Interfacing Technologies 5.1
BluePhoenix Solutions 45 Four Js Development Tools Inc. 17.8 JackBe 8.4 Sencha 5.1
Embarcadero Technologies 44 Mega International 17.6 WS02 8.4 Northgate Information Solutions 5.0
Flexera Software 41 Developer Express 17.4 Alfabet 8.4 Palamida 4.8
CAST Software 39 Infinite Software 16.8 Servoy 7.8 /n software 4.7
Coverity 38 Zend Technologies Inc. 16.3 MetaCase 7.8 Hubspan 4.6
Parasoft 37 Netron Inc. 16.2 Syncfusion 7.8 Innovations Software Technology 4.5
Empirix 36 ComponentOne 15.9 Appirio 7.5 InRule Technology 4.5
Pegasystems 35 Atego 15.3 Ateras 7.5 Nexaweb 4.4
Magic Software Enterprises Inc. 32 Metastorm 15.1 Information Builders Inc. 7.1 SOA Software Inc. 4.2
CollabNet 31 Dundas Data Visualization 14.3 EZLegacy 7.1 Object Connections 4.2
Other 2,014
Market Total (US$) 10,579
Oct-11© 2011 IDC14
Agenda
1. Trends
2. Market
3. Surveys
4. Predictions
5. Guidance
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 15
2011 Professional Developer ModelMethodology
Objective
Model & Forecast # of professional developers based on data
Approach
Collect benchmark data in key countries
– US, Canada, UK, Germany, China, Russia, India
Select an appropriate “driver” variable for model
– Relationship to professional developers
– Available country level data
– Developers = Function(Tertiary School Education)
IDC Forecast methodology for 2010-2015
Source:/Notes:
Oct-11© 2011 IDC
2010 Professional Developer ModelResults
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gro
wth
Develo
pers
(M
)
2010 Downside Forecast 2010 Upside Forecast 2010 Forecast 2010 Growth
16
9.9 mil developers in 2010
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 17
2011 US Developer Survey
Source:/Notes:
Where do you work?
US based survey with skew towards midsize and smaller companies
~ 54% are internal enterprise developers
~28% are outsourced/contractdevelopers
Other Information
58% work in companies with 5,000 or smaller employees N=400
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 18
2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Developer Team Size
Source:/Notes:
How big is the team of developers you work in?
~ 15% of developers work in teams > 10 members
~ 60% of developers work on teams <= 5 members
N=400
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 19
2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Front-end vs Back-end
Source:/Notes:
Split your development time by type of code:
Front-end code
~ 54% of developer time
N=400
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 20
2011 ADS US Developer Survey:Mobile Development Mix
Source:/Notes:
How many years have you been developing mobile applications?
Percentage spending >= 10% time doing Mobile Development
Mobile Development is exploding
N=100
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 21
2011 ADS US Developer Survey: IDE Usage Preference
Visual Studio is popular even for non Microsoft languages
NetBeans is significantly more popular than Jdeveloper or IBM RAD
Source:/Notes:
Which IDEs do you prefer to use? (multiple allowed)
N=400
All Java IDEs
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 22
2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Ecosystem Affiliation
Source:/Notes:
Which ecosystems do you affiliate with? (select all that apply)
Web/Scripting & Database eco-systems are the largest
Microsoft’s broader eco-system is larger than Java’s
Compiled languages remain a significant
N=400
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 23
2011 ADS US Developer Survey: Ecosystem Purity
Source:/Notes:
What is the degree of multiple ecosystem affiliation?
Web/Scripting ecosystem members are much more diverse
Older ecosystems have lowest cross-over factors
N=400
Oct-11© 2011 IDC24
Agenda
1. Trends
2. Market
3. Surveys
4. Predictions
5. Guidance
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 25
2011 Key AD Predictions
1. Application development goes mobile.
Web development shifts to HTML5. Plug-ins move to the high-end.
Web apps begin to bridge desktop and mobile.
2. The platform is not enough. Platform vendors will build out their public cloud
ecosystems to demonstrate their platform effectiveness and driving improved
solutions for customers.
3. Dev/Ops Divide Begins to Erode: Business costs resulting from schisms
between development and operations teams, deployment complexity and the
need to leverage cloud benefits will drive adoption & combined offerings from
key vendors during 2011-13, enabling coordination and effective hand-offs.
4. App stores become essential as platform ISVs use them to attract developers
and validate their technology stacks, driven by common infrastructure benefits
(monetization, analytic feedback, …).
5. Big Data becomes a big deal. Data analytics, data warehouse, and data
integration vendors will introduce Big Data solutions
Source:/Notes:
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 26
2012 Top 10 AD Predictions – Early Preview
1. Future application platform ecosystems coalesce into major groups
2. Desktop and Mobile development begin to converge
3. RIA shifts to HTML5, matures for mobile
4. Application marketplaces become the primary means of software distribution
5. Enterprise mobility begins to gain momentum, B2C and ISV apps lead
6. Public cloud platforms become mainstream for consumer apps, make
inroads in small enterprises but not yet larger enterprises
7. Java & .NET workloads begin move to the cloud
8. The gap in user experience widens across the firewall
9. Social-integration becomes key component of user interface design
10. Smart TV app platforms try again – leveraging the same ecosystems
26
Oct-11© 2011 IDC27
Agenda
1. Trends
2. Market
3. Surveys
4. Predictions
5. Guidance
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 28
Essential Guidance For Users
Check-list:
What should we adopt for client-side development?
– Web versus Native?
– What are the B2C app needs? Who should build them?
– Should B2E apps be modernized? What is the Windows 8 strategy?
– Is HTML5 ready? Are users on the latest browsers?
What should be used for server-side development?
– Is .NET ready for the enterprise? Is it strategic on the server?
– Is Java evolving quickly enough? Are lightweight frameworks good-enough?
– Are dynamic languages adequate?
What is the enterprise strategy for Open Source?
– Is Open Source safe? What tools can help?
What is the enterprise strategy for Mobile devices?
– How should BYOD be handled? Are multi-platform mobile tools appropriate?
Are you leveraging social networking in your applications?
Oct-11© 2011 IDC 29
Questions
For more information on the Application Development Software CIS and published
research please visit, http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P644
Al Hilwa, Program Director