THE GREAT EASTERN JAPAN

EARTHQUAKE– WHAT WE HAVE BEEN LEARNING FROM

THE LATEST BLACK SWAN EVENT IN JAPAN

Takashi Kanemori

OYO Corporation

Tokyo, Japan

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CONTENTS

� Overview of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake

� Rapture Zone, Displacement, Aftershocks

� Tsunami

� What was happened by the earthquake?

� Various aspects of damages

� Transportation system

� Supply chain problems

� Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant

� Disaster education program by Prof. Katada

� Preparation for the next event (Tokai-Nankai EQ)

� Conclusions

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Magnitude: 9.0 Mw

Date-Time: March 11, 2011 at 14:46

Location: 38.1°N, 142.9°E

Depth: 24 km

Distances: 129 km (80 miles) from Sendai

177 km (109 miles) from Fukushima

373 km (231 miles) from TOKYO

Sendai

Fukushima

Tokyo(picture：Reuters)

OVERVIEW OF

THE GREAT EASTERN JAPAN EARTHQUAKE

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OVERVIEW OF

THE GREAT EASTERN JAPAN EARTHQUAKE

Human DamageDeath toll: 15,846 (6,434)

Missing: 3,317 (3)

Injured: 6,011 (43,792)

Building DamageTotal collapse: 128,558 (104,906)

Half collapse: 243,486 (144,274)

Partial damage: 673,397 (390,506)

Burned by fire: 281 (7,132)

Damage Loss16.9 Trillion JPY (9.6 Trillion JPY)

* Numbers in () show damage by Kobe EQ in 1995

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(防災科学技術研究所)

① ② ③It was an enormous earthquake. This is not a single earthquake but inter-connected three

earthquakes taken place in a region of 500km in north to south by 200km in east to west.

The first rupture occurred at off Miyagi, and strong seismic wave was released all over

Tohoku (①). After several tens of seconds, another massive rupture occurred at the offshore

far away from the land（②）. Then immediately, the third rupture occurred at the offshore

near land of the northern Ibaraki (③), and strong seismic waves were radiated toward

Ibaraki pref. and Tochigi pref.

This is a low angle over-thrust fault where the upper plane was pushed over the lower plane

in west-northwest and east-southeast direction. The maximum deformation is analyzed to be

20m.

USGS Educational Slides USGS Educational SlidesRecord of NIED K-NET and KiK-net

FEATURES OF THE EARTHQUAKE

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DISPLACEMENTS BY THE EARTHQUAKE

OBSERVED BY GPS 6

Horizontal (max.5.3m) Vertical (max.1.2m)

http://www.gsi.go.jp/chibankansi/chikakukansi40005.html

AFTERSHOCKS

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Aftershocks will always occur after a huge

earthquake. Attention to the aftershocks has to

be paid in a long-term for this earthquake with

magnitude of 9.

Because of the wide hypocentral region, we are

having many aftershocks. A series of strong

aftershocks with magnitude of more than seven

was taken place, and we recorded more than 400

aftershocks with magnitude of more than five in

following three weeks. (By: Dr.Oki, Dr.Tsuji, Dr. Nishida)

http://outreach.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/eqvolc/201103_tohoku/eng

March 11

15:08 M7.4

March 9

11:45 M7.3

March 9

14:46 M9.0

April 7

23:32 M7.2

March 11

15:25 M7.5

March 11

15:15 M7.7

March 12

4:47 M7.4

March 12

3:59 M6.7

March 15

22:31 M6.4

March 23

7:12 M6.0

April 11 17:16

M7.1

A HUGE TSUNAMI ATTACKED EAST COAST OF JAPAN8

A crustal deformation caused a huge tsunami. Tsunami occurred in a vast area for hundreds of kilometers from off-shore Iwate Prefecture to coast of Ibaraki Prefecture.

The tsunami run-up height was up to 38.9 m at Omoe peninsula and 37.9m at Tarou in Miyako city. The run-up height is comparable to the one of 38.2 m recorded at Ryouri of Ofunato city in Iwate when Meiji-Sanrikuearthquake (1986).

8.5 m in Miyako

The height of observed

tsunami

Coastline

before

Tsunami

Change of coastline (Sendai)7 m in Soma4.2 in Oarai

DAMAGE OF TRANSPORTATION NETWORK

Transportation network suffered severe disruptions. Many sections of

Tohoku Expressway serving northern Japan were damaged. The

expressway did not reopen to general public use until 24 March 2011. All

railway services were suspended in Tokyo, with an estimated 20,000 people

stranded at major stations across the city. In the hours after the earthquake,

some train services were resumed. Most Tokyo area train lines resumed full

service by the next day-12 March. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Tōhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami

http://sankei.jp.msn.com/affairs/photos/110316/dst11031612300041-p12.htm

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Renesas Electronics Corporation

SUPPLY CHAIN PROBLEMS

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Renesas Electronics Corporation

� 40% share of the international automotive microcomputer market� Eight factories were forced to shut down. Naka factory, which

is one of core factory located in Tochigi prefecture, suffer a great deal of damage.

� Operations were recovered on September.

� Partner companies which involve various type of industriesare spread in whole countries.Food, BeverageTextile productsChemical productsCeramic, soil & stoneMetal productsMachineryElectric machineIT, communicationElectronic partsTransport equipmentPrecision instrumentOther manufacturing productCommerce

SPREADING OF RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION

Many Problems to be Solved

� Return plan of evacuees

� Decontamination work

� Process of radioactive debris

� Compensation to suffered people/organizations

� Removal of nuclear fuel in meltdown

� Decommissioning plan of Reactors

� Healthcare problems

Radiation Detector

Measure radiation dose

in large area

using by a helicopter

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EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROGRAM

FOR DISASTERS PREVENTION BY

PROF. KATADA, GUNMA UNIVERSITY

� Advisor to disaster prevention and crisis management

for Kamaishi City

� What Prof. Katada taught to students

� Run away immediately after shaking !

� Help each other

� Do not trust hazard maps at all !

� No toll in 2,826 students of elementary/junior-high school in Kamaishi city.� Toll/Miss in Kamaishi city: 1,060 (population:39,578)

http://www.ce.gunma-u.ac.jp/bousai/research02_3.html

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Unosumai,

Kamaishi

Sendai

Tokyo

UNOSUMAI TOWN,

KAMAISHI CITY

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“MIRACLE IN KAMAISHI”THE EDUCATION PROGRAM SAVED LIFE OF CHILDREN

This Earthquake

Tsunami Invasion Area

Past events (Meiji or Showa)

Shown by Hazard Map

http://www.ce.gunma-u.ac.jp/bousai/research02_3.html

Kamaishi Higashi

Junior High SchoolUnosumai

Elementary School

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STUDY FOR THE COMING

TOKAI-NANKAI EARTHQAUKE

� Level-1 Scenario� Reasonably big event with high frequency

� Mitigate damages and prevent loss of life and properties

� Level-2 Scenario� Largest event with very low frequency

� Tolerate property damages, however prevent loss of life

Appropriate level of the scenario ?

How about “Uncertainty” ?����

From Scenario approach

toProbabilistic approach

with many scenarios

Rupture zone of

the new scenario event

Mw 9.0

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Rupture zone of

the scenario event set up in 2003

Mw 8.6

CONCLUSIONS

� “Unexpected” events� Huge earthquake of Magnitude 9.0 followed by the giant

Tsunami

� Catastrophic accident at Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant.

� Is it really the “Unexpected” events?� Similar historical Tsunami event caused by Johgan

Earthquake in 869 were pointed out by some researchers from old documents and tsunami deposit study.

� The Fukushima accident could be prevented if power generation facilities were located at higher elevation.

� Need “Probabilistic” approach with uncertainty, rather than “Scenario” approach.

“Men willingly believe what they wish.”by Julius Caesar

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Since immediately after the earthquake, many encouragements

and supports have been provided from every place of Japan as

well as from many countries and international organizations

APPRECIATION TO PEOPLE IN THE WORLD

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� Operation “Tomodachi” by US military provided recovery support with 20 ships,

160 airplane and over 20,000 people at a peak.

� Rescue/Emergency response Teams from 29 countries.

� 63 countries/areas/organizations provided relief goods.

� 93 countries/areas/organizations provided donations of over 17.5 billion yen.