the greening of…texas? · energy consumption 0.0 2,000.0 4,000.0 6,000.0 8,000.0 10,000.0...
TRANSCRIPT
The Greening of…Texas?
June 24, 2009
Jay Zarnikau, PhD
Frontier Associates, LLC
and University of Texas at Austin
LBJ School of Public Affairs and College of Natural Sciences
Questions. . . .• Can one of the leading states in fossil fuel production
and consumption become a leader in renewable energy and energy efficiency?
• Can the transition be achieved through market mechanisms within relatively-competitive market structures? And without global warming concerns as a motivation?
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Renewable Energy
Energy Consumption• Texas ranks first in total energy consumption.
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Source of data: US DOE EIA
• Texas consumes almost 12% of all energy used in the US. In 2005, Texas’ energy consumption exceeded that of California, the nation’s second largest energy consumer, by 38 percent.
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Renewable Energy
Energy Consumption Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Total Energy Consumption by Sector (Trillion Btu), 2005 Texas⁴ U.S.
Texas Percent of Total U.S. Consumption
Residential 1,618 21,652 7.5%
Commercial 1,399 17,971 7.8%
Industrial 5,812 32,733 17.8%
Transportation 2,730 28,331 9.6%
Total 11,558 100,687 11.5%Source: Energy Information Administration
Renewable Energy
• Texas ranks fifth in energy consumption per capita.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Mill
ion
Btu
Alaska Wyoming Louisiana North Dakota Texas United StatesState
Energy Consumption Overview
Carbon Emissions
Source of data: US DOE EIA
Renewable Energy
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Energy Consumption
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.019
70
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
Year
Trill
ion
BTU
Coal 1
Natural Gas 2
Crude Oil 3
Nuclear Electric Power
RenewableEnergy 4
Source: EIA: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_prod/P7/PDF/P7_tx.pdf
Exhibit 3Energy Production Estimates by Source in Texas, 1960-2005
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Texas’ Energy Balance• If you count Btus, Texas became a net importer of energy in the
1990s. But if you consider the value of energy imported and exporter, we are still a net exporter of energy resources by a long shot.
0.02,000.04,000.06,000.08,000.0
10,000.012,000.014,000.016,000.018,000.0
19751980
19851990
19952000
2005
Year
Trill
ion
Btu
Total Energy ProductionEstimates (Trillion Btu)
Total EnergyConsumption Estimates(Trillion Btu)
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Carbon Emissions• Texas leads the nation in CO2 emissions by a very wide margin.
625
396
284 274 263 250 238 212 192 186 183
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
TX CA PA OH FL IL IN NY MI GA LA
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
in 2
005
Source of data: US DOE EIA
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Carbon Emissions
• Texas’ CO2 emissions have been trending upward generally.
Texas Emissions
500.0
550.0
600.0
650.0
700.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source of data: US DOE EIA
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Carbon Emissions• But Texas’ share of U.S. CO2 emissions has declined slightly.
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source of data: US DOE EIA
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Texas Energy Policies Overview
Carbon Emissions
• Highly restructured electricity market.
• Very little federal regulation over electricity matters.
• Considerable competition in natural gas markets.
• Laissez faire political attitude.
• Among policy‐makers, some skepticism regarding global warming.
Renewable Energy
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Can Texas Change Course? Overview
Carbon Emissions
• Can Texas change course?
• Can Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency help Texas regain it’s leadership in Energy?
Renewable Energy
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Source of data: US DOE EIA
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Wind Power• Initiatives to develop the state’s wind power potential
have proven extremely successful:– A Renewable Energy Portfolio standard (goals for renewable
energy)– A credit trading program, enabling Retail Electric Providers to
obtain their share of the required credits as a reasonable price• Yet, some problems have arisen:
– Inadequate transmission to move wind power from the best sites (mountains in west Texas, the Panhandle, and coast) to population centers. $5 billion investment is needed.
– Some market gaming by wind generators (although these problems have been largely fixed.)
– Wind contributes little to summer peak generation requirements in Texas.
– Inability to predict and control wind power has led to problems in operating the state’s power network.
– In the presence of transmission bottlenecks, wholesale electricity prices can go negative in west Texas.
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Wind Power
Source of map: Texas PUC
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
2005 Legislative Requirements to Remove Transmission Constraints to Wind Power Development
Section 39.904
(g) The (Public Utility) commission, afterconsultation with each appropriate independent organization, electric reliability council, or regionaltransmission organization:
(1) shall designate competitive renewable energy zones throughout this state in areas in which renewable energy resources and suitable land areas are sufficient to develop generating capacity from renewable energy technologies;
(2) shall develop a plan to construct transmission capacity necessary to deliver to electric customers, in a manner that is most beneficial and cost‐effective to the customers, the electric output from renewable energy technologies in the competitive renewable energy zones
Potential Wind Resource
1060
0
8300
1200
0
9600
7900
6900
6000
6200
4700
2900
4600
3000
2200
2700
• ERCOT sponsored a study to identify areas with best wind resource potential
• Identified highest CF 100MW sites and clustered into 25 areas
• Identified wind capacity potential (in MW) with >35% capacity factor in each area is shown
Source: Ercot
Network Upgrades
From the perspective of network upgrade needs, there are generally four sets of potential CREZs
1. Coastal (Area 24)2. Mc Camey Area (Areas
5&6)3. Abilene Area (Areas
9,10,12 &14)4. Panhandle (Areas 2 & 4)
$5 billion price tag.
Source: Ercot
Wind Power• Wind power generation is considerably below the rated capacity of
the wind turbines.
Source: Ercot
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Wind Power• Wind generation in west Texas, investment tax credits, and
transmission constraints have combined to create some bizarre pricing patterns in the state’s wholesale electricity market.
Balancing Energy Prices in Various Zones on June 3, 2008
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
15 145
315
445
615
745
915
1045
1215
1345
1515
1645
1815
1945
2115
2245
15-Minute Interval
Dol
lars
per
MW
h
HoustonNorth ZoneWest Zone
Source: Ercot
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Solar Energy
Source: Texas Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Thermal/Photovoltaic TechnologiesRenewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Biomass• Animal Wastes
• Crop Residues
• Forest Products/Mesquite/ Cedar
• Grain
• High‐Tonnage Sorghums
• Microalgae
• Municipal Solid Waste / Urban Waste
• Oilseed Crops
• Sugar Cane/Energy Cane
• Sweet Sorghum
• Switch Grass
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Geothermal Energy
• Texas has the ability to be a U.S. leader in using renewable geothermal resources in a range of applications.
Renewable Energy
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Temperature of Underground Formations
Temperature of Formations at 12,000 ftTemperature of Formations at 10,000 ft
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Source: Texas Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Texas Geothermal Resource by Category
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Energy From WaterENERGYFROM TEXAS WATER RESOURCES
HYDROPOWER OCEAN SALINE GRADIENT
ExistingSiteOcean Thermal Gradients
Salinity Gradient Solar PondUndeveloped
Hydro Tides
FeasibleUndeveloped Small Hydro and Low Power
Waves
RED/PRO at fresh‐saline interface Geothermal
Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Source: Texas Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Energy Efficiency
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Investor-owned electric utilities are required to meet a goal for energy efficiency. The goal is consistently exceeded on a statewide basis, but some individual utilities may fall short.
Austin Energy has been a leader in this area.
Energy Efficiency
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Demand Savings (MW)GoalAchieved
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Source: http://www.texasefficiency.com/report.html
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
The Challenges Faced as we Move Toward Greater Reliance upon
Renewables and Energy Efficiency
• Cost of Renewable Energy Investments
• Accommodating Intermittency
• Transmission of Renewable Energy to Markets
• Valuing Distributed Generation
• Incorporating Energy Storage
• Jobs and Economic Development
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
In theory, Texas has the potential to satisfy all of its demand (11.556 Quadrillion Btus) for energy with renewable energy resources.
RESOURCE
TOTAL PHYSICAL RESOURCE (quads/yr)
ACCESIBLE RESOURCE (quads/yr)
ENERGY DENSITY: GOOD TEXAS SITE
(MJ/m²/yr)
PRIMARY ENERGY USESELECT. HEAT MECH TRANS.
NON‐ENERGY USES
SOLAR4,300 250 8,000 X X
WIND22 7 500 X X
BIOMASS
9 0 500 X X X Food, feed, and fiber
WATER (as electricity)
0.10 0.02 10 X X XWater supply: flood
control
GEOTHERMAL
400,000 81,000 600 X X Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Source: Texas Renewable Energy Resource Assessment
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
FindingsSo, is Texas a ‘green state’ or a ‘brown state’?
• Texas leads in total energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and the use of coal as a generation fuel.
• The state’s conservative leadership has expressed little concern over global warming to date.
But,• Its wind power industry is the nation’s largest and will increase in
scale considerably in the coming decades. • The state’s vast potential for solar power is about to be tapped. • Geothermal resources may also have considerable potential. • Energy efficiency efforts have proven efficient and effective. • The oil and gas and semiconductor industries which enriched the
state in decades past are slowly being replaced with green industries focused on developing wind power, solar power, and batteries.
Conclusion
Wind Power
Solar Energy
Biomass
Geothermal Energy
Hydro Power
Energy Efficiency
Issues
• These new industries are aided by a favorable entrepreneurial and investment climate.
• To date, this state’s policies to develop renewable energy and energy efficiency are off to a good start.
• Gains in these areas have been made within electricity and natural gas markets which have been restructured to foster competition by setting goals and using market mechanisms to achieve the goals.
• What happens in Texas is not merely of importance to Texans. The success of any world‐wide initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reduce reliance upon fossil fuels is greatly impacted by what happens in Texas, in light of its contribution to energy consumption and CO2 emissions.
Renewable Energy
Overview
Carbon Emissions
Findings
Conclusion
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