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The HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method:
Shortening projects schedules and more…
The HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method:
Shortening projects schedules and more…
Tal Levanon, MSc, PMI-SP
Founder & CTO
HCP Project Management Consulting
www.hcp-consulting.com
Tal Levanon, MSc, PMI-SP
Founder & CTO
HCP Project Management Consulting
www.hcp-consulting.com
Tal Levanon - Founder & CTO
Developer of the Hidden Critical Paths method (US patent #US7,769,618 B2)
15 years of international project management experience
PMI-SP (PMI-Schedule Professional)
Lecturer at the Engineering Department of Tel Aviv University
M.Sc. Industrial Engineering –Tel Aviv University (Israel)
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AgendaMotivation for listening
What is HCP?
Insights Revealed by HCP
HCP Case Studies
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Objectives of theHCP Method (Patented)
Predict the ability to complete the project on time, on spec and on budget
Pinpoint action items for schedule improvement
Identify hidden risks in the project
Who is our Clientele?
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5
Asset Owners & Investors
Contractors
SubjectSubjectSubjectSubject
HCP deep schedule analysis for schedules from outside sources
� � � �
Writing schedules for tenders, projects � �
Monthly monitoring projects’ schedules by performance and by HCP analysis
� � �
Risk Management � � �
Lectures, Training � � �
Project Managers
Parties to Claims & Disputes
Legend
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What is the HCP (Hidden Critical Paths) Method?Unique algorithmic approach to analyzing a project
schedule
Reveal critical aspects of any project schedule:
� Locate opportunities to shorten schedule
� Locate hidden risks in the schedule
� Know the success expectation rate of the project
� Compare between two schedules:of two different contractors or of the same contractor.
� And more…
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What are Hidden Critical Paths?
Your project duration is: 12 months.
� Q: What is the duration of the critical path?
� A: Normally, 12 months.
In this project, there is a path 11.5 months long:
� Is it critical?
� Not according to CPM! But it’s not hard to get behind
schedule by two weeks in real life…
� So what is this path?
� This is a Hidden Critical Path!
Example:
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Hidden Critical Paths
Critical Path I
Critical Path II
Hidden Critical Path I
Hidden Critical Path II
DurationAugust September October November
ID
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Insights Revealed by HCP
� Locate opportunities to shorten schedule
� Locate hidden risks in the schedule
� Know the success expectation rate of the
project
� Compare between two schedules
� And more…
� Locate opportunities to shorten schedule
� Locate hidden risks in the schedule
� Know the success expectation rate of the
project
� Compare between two schedules
� And more…
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HCP Critical PathHCP Critical Path
Identical to CPM Critical Path?
Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Schedule's End Date!
RealProject
“Two Paths”SampleProject
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Real Project
1,100 activities, 600 work days
Duration Float of Total Project Duration
No. of Paths
20% 50,000~
10% 9,000~
5% 1,500~
?
?
?
Display format:
Activity Network (Primavera)
PERT Network (MS Project)
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“Two Paths” Sample Project
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
9sf+2days
10sf+2days
13sf+2days
14sf+2days
HCP-Critical-Path identical to CPM Critical Path?
Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Schedule's End Date!
The Difference between Total Float/Slack and Duration Float/Slack
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Activities in HCP Critical Paths
Activities in HCP Critical Paths
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Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Project’s End Date
Opportunities for Bringing Forward the Project’s End Date
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Schedule ShowingTotal Float/Slack and HCP Duration Float/Slack
9sf+2days
10sf+2days
13sf+2days
14sf+2days
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Highway 6: Section 18
Jerusalem
Tel
Aviv
Highway 6:
•Toll road
•121 km long
•BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer)
•Budget: ~$1 Billion
•Length: 18.2 km long including 14 bridges, 2 tunnels
•Budget: ~$200 million
•Contract: 33 months (June 2007 – March 2010)
Egypt
Lebanon
Jordan
Haifa
Beer
Sheva
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Hwy 6, Section 181,488 Tasks
Start DateStart DateStart DateStart Date
12121212,,,,920 920 920 920 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!
Finish DateFinish DateFinish DateFinish Date
DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 40404040% · T% · T% · T% · T
345 345 345 345 slack daysslack daysslack daysslack days
The network duration:The network duration:The network duration:The network duration:572.5 572.5 572.5 572.5 daysdaysdaysdays
Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: 862.5 862.5 862.5 862.5 days = Tdays = Tdays = Tdays = T
0 0 0 0 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!
DS < DS < DS < DS < 33333333% · T% · T% · T% · T
290 290 290 290 slack daysslack daysslack daysslack days
Project Slack ����
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The HCP Critical Path
216216216216
290 290 290 290 slack daysslack daysslack daysslack daysCP duration: CP duration: CP duration: CP duration: 572.5 572.5 572.5 572.5 daysdaysdaysdays
• Possible timeline reductions
• Parallel tasks in the CP (risk)26 HCP critical tasks
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Hidden Critical Activities
Hidden Critical Activities
Manage the HCP activities as
you manage the CPM activities!
Risk management assessment
Hidden critical resources
Redundant PathsRedundant Paths
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Bridge of Strings, Jerusalem, Israel
Architect: Santiago Calatrava
L: 380 meters
W: 4,500 tons
Pylon Height: 119 meters
66 Cables, each ~150 meters.
Materials: Stainless steel Concrete
Cost: ~$65 Million
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Redundant paths
Path X is redundant to Path Y if all the tasks exist in Path X also exist in Path Y.
A B C D E F
Path X: A�B�E�F
Path Y: A�B�C�D�E�F
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Project Success Expectation
Project Success Expectation
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Schedules Comparison
Tenders: Comparison between two (or more) different schedules of different contractors
The same project: Comparison between two (or more) schedules of different months
Project: Mysterious
HCP analysis comparison: Month #1, Month #2
Project: Mysterious
HCP analysis comparison: Month #1, Month #2
Relevant to:
PMs, Expert Inspectors, Specialists , Lawyers, CEOs, etc.
Relevant to:
PMs, Expert Inspectors, Specialists , Lawyers, CEOs, etc.
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Mirroring the Project StructureMore than 8,500 activities, 8 different Primavera files combined
Date XDate XDate XDate X Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: 460 460 460 460 work days =Twork days =Twork days =Twork days =T1111
2222,,,,813 813 813 813 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!((((17171717,,,,502 502 502 502 total)total)total)total)
Over Over Over Over 50505050,,,,000 000 000 000 paths paths paths paths found (total)found (total)found (total)found (total)
Too muchToo muchToo muchToo much
Date YDate YDate YDate Y
Date ZDate ZDate ZDate ZProject Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: Project Duration: 439 439 439 439 work days =Twork days =Twork days =Twork days =T2222
M #1
851 851 851 851 paths found!paths found!paths found!paths found!((((9999,,,,179 179 179 179 total)total)total)total)
M #21 Month buffer
DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 5555% · T% · T% · T% · T1111
23 23 23 23 float daysfloat daysfloat daysfloat days
DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 10101010% · T% · T% · T% · T1111
46 46 46 46 float daysfloat daysfloat daysfloat days
DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ DS ≤ 20202020% · T% · T% · T% · T2222
87 87 87 87 float daysfloat daysfloat daysfloat days
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HCP: Project SuccessExpectation
M#1
M#2
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M #1 M #2
Paths Histogram Comparison
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The HCPs
•7 paths with 1 day DS – 3 tasks
•19 paths with 10 days DS – 23 tasks
•19 paths with 11 days DS
•1376 paths with 15 days DS – 87 tasks
•1380 paths with 16 days DS – 10 tasks
•3 paths with 17 days DS
•2 paths with 20 days DS – 2 tasks
•2 paths with 21 days DS
Total of 167 HCP tasks (21DS days):
42 Critical Tasks
125 Hidden Critical Tasks
•1 path with 5 day DS – 4 tasks
•1 path with 8 days DS – 10 tasks
•1 path with 16 days DS – 13 tasks
•1 path with 17 days DS – 12 tasks
•2 paths with 18 days DS – 22 tasks
•1 path with 20 days DS – 14 tasks
•1 path with 22 days DS – 2 tasks
•2 paths with 23 days DS – 19 tasks
Total of 150 HCP tasks (23DS days):
54 Critical Tasks
96 Hidden Critical Tasks
M #1 M #2
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The CP by the HCP Analysis
6 different Critical
Paths – 42 tasks
All identical to CPM
Critical Paths
8 cases of overlapping
tasks (higher risk)
No Options for timeline
reductions
M #1
3 different Critical
Paths – 54 tasks
All identical to CPM
Critical Paths
9 cases of overlapping
tasks (higher risk)
No Options for timeline
reductions
M #2
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Identify weak control points
� Project threshold: 27.8 days.
� 234 activities with duration longer than 28 days were located
M #2
� Project threshold: 90 days.
� 461 activities with duration longer than 90 days were located
M #1
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Technical Insights…�Schedule Integrity Issues
�HCP Histogram
�Risk Management Issues:
� Overlapping Activities in the
HCP Critical Path
� Difficult-to-Track Activities
�Key Schedule and Analysis Dates
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Schedule Integrity Issues Schedule Integrity Issues
Tasks which should have finished or
should have started
•Summary Tasks Directly Linked from Predecessors•Summary Tasks Directly Linked to Successors •Only Earliest/Latest Tasks within Summary Tasks Linked to Other Tasks
opportunities to reduce the overall schedule duration
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Critical and Near-critical HCP Paths
Histogram
Critical and Near-critical HCP Paths
Histogram
Case studies: HCP Histograms
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What do you think?
Which one is a betterproject schedule?
Path duration slack / float
Number of Paths“Cardio”
Case studies: HCP Histograms – cont.
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Basic schedule – May 2011 Update schedule – Dec 2013
What do you think?
What happened in the project?
Path duration slack / float
Number of Paths
Path duration slack / float
Number of Paths
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Case study: Route 9, Jerusalem
• 11 sections
• 11 contractors
HCP involved from October 2005
• 3.6 km
• 3 bridges
• 2 tunnels (400m)
• ~$125 million
• Total time: 6 years (2001-May 2007)
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Risk management (1): Overlapping Activities in the
HCP Critical Path
Risk management (1): Overlapping Activities in the
HCP Critical Path
Parallel activities in the HCP critical path significantly increase the overall risk of completing the
project on schedule.
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Difficult-to-Track Activities
Difficult-to-Track Activities
Activities whose duration is longer
than a certain threshold*:
Divide into smaller sub-activities
*The HCP Method calculates this threshold per project
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Key Schedule and Analysis Dates
Key Schedule and Analysis Dates
The effective date of
analysis can be today, or can simulate any other date!
The ‘start date of
analysis’ can be later than the project start date.
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Unique Insights…!
�� Two or more schedules in One!
�� A major change in the schedule does
NOT have to result in a loss of control
�� Proactive management
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Case Study: ?
The subject of the project: Unknown…
All tasks names were removed, only WBS numbers left!
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SuccessorPredecessorstart finishdurationTaskID SuccessorPredecessorstart finishdurationTaskID
The process…
Dec 18th, 2006
Dec 18th, 2006
Dec 25th, 2006
Dec 31st, 2006
Jan 28th, 2007
Feb 4th, 2007
Received Schedule ‘2006-12-17’
Sent ‘HCP Free Analysis report’
Received Schedule ‘2006-12-21’
‘HCP Full Analysis report’ ready.
Received Schedule ‘2007-01-28’
‘HCP Full Analysis report’ ready.
PredecessorStart FinishDurationTaskID
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Project’s structure
Jan 28th, 2007
1 Critical Path
(Partially Identical to MS-
Project)
10 HCPs with
Duration Slack=8 days
Dec 21st, 2006
10 Critical Paths
(Identical to MS-Project)
1 HCP with
Duration Slack=13 days
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Hidden Critical Paths
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Project stages:Construction of building for new lineInstallation of capital equipmentProduction startup
MAX IEGConsulting & management company
Allegro Microsystems – MA, USA A Silicon wafer fabrication facilitylocated in MA, USA
Case Study:Semiconductor Factory
Expansion
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Project ProfileStart date: Aug 2004
End date: May 2005
(198.7 work days)
HCP analysis was
performed in Oct
2004 (after 2 months of work)
Schedule included
165 tasks
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HCP Analysis Results
Duration Slack=20%, 118 paths found: 2 Critical Paths
2 HCP with 2 days DS
2 HCP with 3.2 days DS
1 HCP with 5.3 days DS
…
But that’s not all…
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HCP Analysis Results(cont.)
Project scheduled duration: 198.7 days
Project actual duration: 173.1 days
� 25.6 25.6 25.6 25.6 work days without any work scheduled work days without any work scheduled work days without any work scheduled work days without any work scheduled in the HCP critical path!in the HCP critical path!in the HCP critical path!in the HCP critical path!
� The HCP Method discovered this by identifying a task which caused a delay due to a constraint
Hidden critical path with DS=5.3 days hasn’t started yet, concealing potential problems!
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The Impact of HCP
Project completed 3 weeks early!
Contingency budget untouched!
Project total cost: $1.8M
Proactive Management
Project’s due date: May 11th, 2005
$250,000 contingency budget
Project budget: $2.5M
Reactive management
The client: “HCP is a very powerful tool for PMs at all levels!”
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How does your project reflect in the HCP mirror?
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Thank you for Listening!
Questions?We’ll be happy to answer!
Comments?We’d like to hear from you!
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Contact Information
Name Tal Levanon
Title Founder & CTO
Company HCP Project Management Consulting
Email [email protected]
Phone 1-888-HCP-2080+972-72-250-1394 (outside USA)
Web-site www.hcp-consulting.com