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The High Plains Project Michael Ward, Professor of Epidemiology, Univ of Sydney Bo Norby, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology Bruce McCarl, DIstinguished Professor, Agricultural Economics Levan Elbakidze, Asst. Prof, Idaho Texas A&M University

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The High Plains Project Goal: Develop and apply a decision support system that assists policy formulation to efficiently detect and respond to incursions of FMD within the high plains of Texas develop framework for integrated decision support systems timeframe: January to September, 2006

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Deliverables 1.Realistic regional FMD epidemic model in an integrated system 2.Decision support system for FMD incursion assessment 3.Evaluation of mitigation strategies

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8 counties 7,942 miles 2 92 feedlots 2,231,300 cattle on feed 411,019 grazing cattle 17,471 land parcels

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Specific Objectives modify epidemic model structure to represent livestock industry in the high plains 3 months integrate epidemic model with economic models 6 months investigate the consequences of FMD incursions 1 month determine the impact of a range of mitigation strategies 2 months

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Identify Key Industry Components Form spatial, herd type representation of High Plains animals Estimate herd to Herd Animal and Other Contact Rates Setup linked regional Epidemiologic/ Economic Model Study consequences of alternative Disease introduction scenarios Study consequences of ex ante and ex post interventions Stake holder reporting Follow on Legend Done First cut done, detailed underway Nearing completion Just beginning Study Design

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Animal and Contact Data: The High Plains Project Bo Norby, Assistant Professor of Epidemiology National Center for Foreign and Zoonotic Disease Defense Texas A&M University

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High Plains Study Area Interviews as per August 28, 2006 Operation typesDoneScheduled Cattle on feed30 Dairies121 Swine27

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30 Feedlots Interviewed as of August 28, 2006 High Plains Study Area August 3, 2006

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FeedlotsAverageMedianMinimumMaximum Capacities2529,84827,1002,40075,000 Cattle received Cattle received per month 254,0934,3003225,500 Locations received from per day 252.72.41.07.5 Days per month receiving cattle 25119322 Average direct contacts per day 0.99 Cattle shipped Cattle shipped per month 254,5564,00030010,000 Locations shipped to per day 252.4215 Days per month shipping cattle 251110225 Average direct contacts per day 0.8 High Plains Study Area

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Application of Epidemic Models: The High Plains Project Michael Ward, Professor of Epidemiology National Center for Foreign and Zoonotic Disease Defense Texas A&M University

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can cause economically devastating outbreaks in countries free of infection $US 1.6 billion, Taiwan 1997 (Yang et al., 1997) >8 billion, United Kingdom 2001 (Kao, 2003) estimated costs of incursions $AUD 213 billion, Australia (Anon., 2002) $US 6 billion, California (Ekboir, 1999) $US 14 billion, United States (Paarlberg et al., 2002) Foot-and-Mouth Disease

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response to incursions: rapid application of appropriate control measures decisions with little current or empirical data political, economic and other issues disease spread models: guidance on probable extent and time span of an outbreak design of optimal control strategies policy formulation gap analysis: research agenda links between disease modelers, stakeholders, decision-makers FMD Models

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state transition, stochastic model spatial distribution of livestock industry contact structures default herd types FMD virus transmission options sale barns, auctions, order buyers wind-borne spread spread rate parameter AusSpread Model

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AusSpread(Garner and Beckett, 2005) SLIR: Susceptible - Latent - Infectious Recovered Stochastic state transition model which operates within a geographic information system (GIS) framework Probabilities of transition functions of direct and indirect contacts sale barns, order buyers and windborne spread Susceptible LatentSymptomatic Recovered/ Removed / dead Infection rate - Rate at which latent become infectious Rate of recovery

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High Plains Study: herd types in consultation with TCFA, 13 herd types defined: 1. feedlot 1, company-owned 2. feedlot 2, stockholder 3. feedlot 3, custom 4. feedlot 4, backgrounder 5. feedlot 5, yearling-pasture 6. dairy calf raiser 7. small commercial beef (

High Plains Study: feedlots specific location of some feedlot types unknown feedlot locations with capacity estimates known allocated by size: 1.>50,000 feedlot 1, company-owned 2.20,000 50,000 feedlot 2, stockholder 3.5,000 20,000 feedlot 3, custom 4.feedlot 4, backgrounder: known locations 5.

High Plains Study: slaughter slaughter begins 1 day post detection (day 15); saleyards shut day 15: only 1 herd slaughtered (index case) days 16-24: 5 herds/day slaughtered days 25-30: 7 herds/day slaughtered days >30 10 herds/day slaughtered probability of each targeted herd being slaughtered per day: (capacity for the day) (total number of herds to be slaughtered)

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High Plains Study: vaccination vaccine unavailable until day 21 days 21-28:12 herds/day vaccinated days 29-34:25 herds/day vaccinated days >3450 herds/day vaccinated probability of each herd being vaccinated per day: (capacity for the day) (number of herds awaiting vaccination) vaccination reduces the resources available for slaughter by 25% dangerous contact (DC) slaughter stops once vaccination begins (backlogged DC herds placed under surveillance) suspect herds, DC and dead herds not vaccinated

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High Plains Study: current status 100 model runs per scenario/mitigation combination run time: ~12 hours ~12 days current status: ScenarioSlaughterVaccination backyard saleyard small feedyard large feedyard = currently running

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uncontrollable outbreaks (>10% of herds infected by day 60 120): ScenarioSlaughterVaccination backyard 00 saleyard 100 small feedyard 410 large feedyard 2951 High Plains: preliminary results

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FMD incursions: slaughter only mitigation strategy Herds infected Scenario Av. herds infectedMinimumMaximum Backyard6135 Small feedyard642459 Large feedyard18361561

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FMD incursions: slaughter vs. slaughter and vaccination Herds infected

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FMD incursions: slaughter only mitigation strategy Epidemic length Scenario Av. epidemic lengthMinimumMaximum Backyard282145 Small feedyard534118 Large feedyard754788

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FMD incursions: slaughter vs. slaughter and vaccination Epidemic length

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Number of herds infected, small feedlot introduction Herds infected

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Number of herds infected, small feedlot introduction Cattle slaughtered

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FMD incursions: small feedlot scenario Total cattle slaughtered Slaughter only Slaughter and vaccination Ratio Average18,03015,8211.14 Minimum8498251.03 Maximum119,72568,3421.75 IQR 2,803 26,2992,416 68,3421.16 2.60 interquartile range (IQR): 50% of simulation results

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FMD incursions: small feedlot scenario Daily average number of cattle slaughtered Slaughter only Slaughter and vaccination Ratio Average3603001.20 Maximum2,0362,0041.02 IQR52 55022 4452.36 1.24

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The next steps technical issues data needs and expert opinion geographic distribution of feedlot types update other herd types contact rates: are these realistic? total contacts versus adequate contacts: have we seriously overestimated spread from feedlots?

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Contacts=total number of contacts per day; DContact=total number of direct contacts per day; IContact=total number of indirect contacts per day; PIDC=probability of infection from direct contact; PIIC=probability of infection from indirect contact Direct and Indirect Contacts

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The next steps technical issues data needs and expert opinion number of buyers at sales, destination of purchased cattle probability of buying latently infected animals at a sale 20% likely to be too high probability of selling cattle from an infected herd via a sale 20% likely too high epidemic-economic link: automated carcass disposal and capacity link transportation model for long-distance spread faster simulation speed: re-coding, grid computing

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The next steps Vulnerability assessment critical components of the system E.g. Feed availablity the role of sales, order buyers feedlot vulnerabilities seasonality multiple FMD incursions wildlife reservoirs?

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The next steps Policy issues increase range, diversity of scenarios simulated what are the important questions? increase types of mitigation strategies simulated what are the options? policy and response implications how do you use insights gained to assist policy formulation and decision-making?

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The next steps Key decision issues time-to-detection vaccination strategies limited labor availability welfare slaughter and feed availability other vaccine strategies e.g.blanket (area) vaccination vaccination to live vs. kill targeted vaccination time to availability of vaccination, decision to employ use of anti-virals timing of control strategies

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High Plains Study design Identify Key Industry Components Form spatial, herd type Representation of High Plains animals Estimate herd to Herd Animal and Other Contact Rates Setup linked regional Epidemiologic/ Economic Model Study consequences of alternative Disease introduction scenarios Study consequences of ex ante and ex post interventions Stake holder reporting Follow on Legend Done First cut done, detailed underway Nearing completion Just beginning

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Economic Effects: The High Plains Project Bruce McCarl, Regents Professor, Ag. Economics National Center for Foreign and Zoonotic Disease Defense Texas A&M University

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46 Economic Valuation Module Estimate losses to local livestock industry Costing Module Epidemiologic output Valuation Assumptions Results Data

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47 Economic Module Economic costing of an event Livestock cost components Value of lost animals Lost gross income (60 days) Value of vaccinated animals: slaughtered or salvaged (50% value loss) Carcass disposal Quarantined animals Welfare cost/slaughter Cost of strategy implementation Value of alternative disease management policies Quarantines Vaccination Ring and Target Culling/euthanasia Animal Traceability Surveillance Disinfection Disposal Vulnerability Assessment Applying economics to the problem of balancing prevention, preparedness and response under limited budget Incentive policy design Market Effects Applied to a random set of outbreak simulations

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48 Economic Epidemiological link Linked econ model handles Valuation of lost herds according to distribution by 21 animal categories Gender Age Weight Type Gross income associated with lost animals Gross income associated with periods of inactivity Differential value of alternative herds by size and type Costing of strategies by herd size Welfare slaughter Does this do the market price and consumers surplus?

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49 Data Spread of disease an effects of control options Epi model ARS (USDA) Premise boundary data Texas Commission on Environmental Quality data on CAFOs from face-to-face interviews with producers (34 feedlot, 21 dairy, and 16 swine were interviewed) - Management practices and direct and indirect contact rates Costs of Control Options Schoenbaum and Disney 2003, Carpenter and/or Bates Industry representatives Market values Extension Specialists USDA publications, Texas Agricultural Statistics Industry representatives Herd Compositions Interviews Extension specialists Various operation costs and assumptions Industry representatives

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Data Spread of disease an effects of control options Epi model Costs of Control Options Schoenbaum and Disney 2003, Carpenter and/or Bates Market values Extension Specialists USDA publications, Texas Agricultural Statistics Herd Compositions Surveys (Bo) Extension specialists Various operation costs and assumptions Industry representatives

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Welfare slaughter Data from the 2001 UK FMD outbreak reveal that 39% of animals slaughtered for welfare purposes because of movement bans and limited feeding capacity. There is cost saving potential if welfare slaughter can be reduced. High plains is at risk 3-6 days feed supply Quarantine longer than that Mature/young animals may need to be held plus in transit We examined assumption that in a 3 KM ring there would be no movement and after 8 days in that zone intensive operation cattle lost unless feed left in

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Scenarios ScenarioIntroductionStrategy 1BackyardSurveillance, Quarantine (3 kilometers), Slaughter of infected and dangerous contacts 2 + target vaccination 3SaleyardSurveillance, Quarantine, Slaughter of infected and dangerous contacts 4 + target vaccination (still running) 5Small FeedlotSurveillance, Quarantine, Slaughter of infected and dangerous contacts 6 + target vaccination 7Large feedlotSurveillance, Quarantine, Slaughter of infected and dangerous contacts 8 + target vaccination

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Bottom Line Summary of Average Event Costs by Control Strategy in Million $ Back yard Sale Yard Small Feed Lot Large Feed Lot W/out Feed W/out vaccination 1101215172415 With vaccination 39314503 Value vaccination 71-142-88 With Feed W/out vaccination 7121295355 With vaccination 4314503 Value vaccination 3-219-148 Value Feed W/out vaccination 10337760 With vaccination 3500

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Risk Results what do we see 100 trials each with prob 0.01 Max amount of money lost with a probability level 10% of time lose $210,000 or less 50% of time $85,650,000 or less 99% of time $345,800,000 or less Prob 0.10.21 0.2515.66 0.585.65 0.75184.66 0.9206.87 0.95240.60 0.99345.81 Avg110.30

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Risk Results Feed/No Vaccination Gain to feed with a probability level 10% of time $0 or less 50% of time $83,300,000 or less 99% of time $270,000,000 or less Moving line to upper left is best NO Feed YES Feed 0.100.2 0.2515.70.6 0.5085.62.3 0.75184.73.0 0.90206.913.1 0.95240.643.6 0.99345.875.9 Avg110.339.0

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Results on all strategies Vaccinate and feed the best Returns to vaccinate much lower with feed Returns to feed lowered by vaccinate Risk much lower with changed managment

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Results on all strategies No Vaccinate and feed the best Returns to vaccinate negative Returns to feed not very great Risk great better management alternative?

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Results on all strategies No Vaccinate and feed the best Returns to vaccinate negative Returns to feed not very great Risk great better management alternative?

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Results on all strategies Feed slightly the best No vaccinate results yet Returns to feed not very great Risk great cant hardly manage at all? better alternatives?

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Animal Disease Control Options and Objectives Objectives Early detection vs. late detection Day 7 vs. day 14 (Ward et al. 2007 ) Early vs. late vaccine availability Day of detection vs. +7 Ring (emergency, 5 km) and target (protective) vaccination Regular vs. enhanced surveillance 3 herds on 1 st day and suspects twice/week vs. 6 herds on 1 st day and suspects four/week Culling 1 day post detection 1 to 10 on day 21

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61 Mitigation: Large Fdlt. Backgrounder Fdlt Lrg. beefBackyard Ring Depopulation Early detection1234 Late detection5678 Adequate vaccine9101112 Inadequate vaccine13141516 Enhanced Surveillance Early detection17181920 Late detection21222324 Adequate vaccine25262728 Inadequate vaccine29303132 Ring Vaccination Early detection33343536 Late detection37383940 Adequate vaccine41424344 Inadequate vaccine45464748 Targeted Vaccination Early detection49505152 Late detection53545556 Adequate vaccine57585960 Inadequate vaccine61626364 Scenarios

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Results Early detection 62 0 50 100 150 200 250 Large FeedlotBackgrounder Feedlot Large BeefBackyard Type of Herds Median Economic Costs Early Detection Late Detection

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Results Early vs. late Vaccine availability 63 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Large FeedlotBackgrounder Feedlot Large BeefBackyard Type of Herds Adequate Vac. Inadequate Vac. Median Economic Costs

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Results Enhanced surveillance 64 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Large FeedlotBackgrounder Feedlot Large BeefBackyard Type of Herds Median Economic Costs Enhanced Surveillance Regular Surveillance

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Results Early detection reduced the median epidemic costs by $150 million (68%)- Large Feedlot, $40 million (69%)- Backgrounder Feedlot, $5 million (74%) - Large Grazing, $3 million (97%) - Backyard introductions Vaccine availability and early application Increased total costs dues to costs of vaccination and assumed 50% loss in animal value Enhanced surveillance Increased by $53 million (45%) -Large Feedlot. Decreased by $16 million (31%) - backgrounder feedlots, Decreased $1 million (23%)- large grazing operations, Decreased $1.6 million (77%) - backyard incursion scenarios,

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Results: CDFs of losses in $ Millions 66

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Results Break even RAC (McCarl 1990) Large feedlot RAC (0.01; 0.09) early detection enhanced surveillance (scenario 17) Otherwise regular surveillance and early detection (scenario 1) Backgrounder feedlot RAC -0.09 early detection and regular surveillance (scenario 12) Large grazing RAC < 0.13 regular surveillance and early detection (19) RAC > 0.13 enhanced surveillance and early detection (3) Backyard For all RAC Enhanced surveillance and early detection (20) 67

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Results Welfare cost depends on introduction scenario High cost in high density and multiple introduction Feed truck disinfection leads to gains not always large Vaccination Effective under backyard introduction Ineffective under feedlot introductions

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Next Econ Activities in High Plains Study More on welfare slaughter Formulation of strategies to examine More on vaccination Preventative Feed Truck disinfection Sanitary practices Other?

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Follow on Econ Activities in High Plains and more General FAZD Follow on Balance Problem Examine risks that merit select strategies Examine resiliency / robustness Examine compensation and cooperation Add strategies Carcass disposal Disease mkt events

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Scope of Strategy Manipulations Size of slaughter and vaccination ring Speed of detection Diagnostics Animal inspection, sensors? Contact rates Pre event Post event discovery time to fall Resources for control Slaughter force Vaccination force Timing and quantity of dose availability Feed and welfare slaughter Alternative vaccination strategies Anti-virals Carcass disposal and slow down strategies