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Supporting
European
Aviation
The ICAO Climate Adaptation
Synthesis
ICAO Green Airports 2019: Climate Adaptation and Resilience
Rachel BURBIDGE
Policy Officer: Environment and Climate
8-9 May, Lima, Perú
The Synthesis in Numbers
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Overview of Synthesis
Contents:
Executive Summary
1) Introduction
1) Methodology
2) Respondents Expectations of Climate Change Impacts on their Aviation Sectors
3) Overview of Survey Demographics
2) Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Effects
1) Analysis of Impacts Which Stakeholders Expect to be the Biggest Challenges
2) Synthesis of Information on Risk Assessment Mythologies and Progress
3) Synthesis of Information on Adaptation Planning
3) The Global Aviation Sector and Adaption to Climate Change
4) Conclusion
Number of Respondents by ICAO Region
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Do you expect to be impacted by Climate
Change now or in the future?
Main climate impacts by region Figure 1: Based on replies from ICAO Member States the ICAO Global Climate
Adaptation Risk Map (ICAO, 2019) shows the nature of the climate change impacts
on international aviation.
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Impacts that Stakeholders are expecting
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Desertification
Business and Economics
Changes in Biodiversity
Changes in Wind Patterns
Changing Icing Conditions
Sea Level Rise
Increased Intensity of Storms
Changing Precipitation
Higher Average and Extreme Temperature
PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS THAT ARE AFFECTED TODAY, OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED IN THE FUTURE, BY IMPACT CATEGORY
“Yes” “No”
Analysis of Climate Change Impacts
• Summary of Impact and
Timescales
• Potential Effects on Aviation
• Adaptation and Resilience
Measures
• Survey Analysis
Impact Categories
• Sea level rise
• Storm surge
• Increased intensity of storms
• Changes in average and extreme
temperatures
• Changing precipitation
• Changing icing conditions
• Changes in wind speed, patterns and
directions
• Desertification
• Changes in Biodiversity (wildlife and
ecosystems)
• Business and Economics
Higher Average and Extreme Temperatures
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Impact and Timescales
• Average global mean temperatures and
extreme high-heat days expected to
increase.
Potential Effects on Aviation
• Stress to cooling systems
• damage to airfield surface
• Affect aircraft take-off requirements.
• Degradation of permafrost
Adaptation and Resilience Measures
• Increase cooling capability
• Runway length & scheduling
• Reinforce airport surface areas
Survey Results
80 of 88 respondents stated they
are affected today or expect to be
affected in the future (91 percent).
80
8
RESPONDENTS THAT ARE OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY HIGHTER AVERAGE
AND EXTREME TEMPERATURES
Yes No N= 88
Changing Precipitation
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Impact and Timescales
• Changes in precipitation type (e.g., rain,
snow, hail) and frequency, potential
extreme rainfall or prolonged drought
Potential Effects on Aviation
• Flooding of airport surfaces &
infrastructure
• Reduced water availability.
Adaptation and Resilience Measures
• Increase drainage capability
• Water conservation measures
Survey Results
78 of 88 respondents stated they
are affected today or expect to be
affected in the future (89 percent).
78
10
RESPONDENTS THAT ARE OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY CHANGING
PRECIPITATION
Yes NoN= 88
Increased Intensity of Storms
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Impact and Timescales
• Storms projected to be stronger &
potentially more frequent. Increased risk
of extreme weather
Potential Effects on Aviation
• Damage to aviation infrastructure
• Delays or cancellations of flights
Adaptation and Resilience Measures
• Reinforce infrastructure
• Pre-emptive cancellation of flights
Survey Results
76 of 88 respondents stated they
are affected today or expect to be
affected in the future (88 percent).
76
12
RESPONDENTS THAT ARE OR EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY
INCREASED INTENSITY OF STORMS
Yes NoN= 88
Global Network: global challenge
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Adapting and Building Resilience
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26
13
9
1
13
5
26
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Measuresalreadybeing
implemented
In the nextfive years
In the nextten years
Longer thanten years
Not specificor undecided
No measuresplanned
No answer
Nu
mb
er
of
Res
po
nd
en
ts
Survey Response
TIMESCALES IN WHICH RESPONDENTS ARE TAKING MEASURES TO ADAPT AND BUILD RESILIENCE
N= 87
2
48
18
8 11
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
It is well-preparedfor the potential
impacts of climatechange
It has someadaptation
measures in placebut more needs to
be done
It has consideredadaptation but noactions have been
initiated yet
It has notconsideredadaptation
No answer Other
Nu
mb
er
of
Re
sp
on
de
nts
Survey Response
EXTENT TO WHICH RESPONDENTS THINK THE GLOBAL AVIATION SECTOR IS PREPARED FOR THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
N= 88
Global Aviation Sector
and Adaptation to Climate Change Section
What do our Stakeholders think? How can we
ramp up action?
15
Action is being taken, but need
more to be done, and to be done
more quickly
Capacity building, training,
guidance
Coordination and
collaboration
Adaptation, risk assessment, policies and
planning (Global)
Adaptation, risk assessment, and planning (National
and local)
Infrastructure and technical
adaptation
Research
Operational adaptation
Met services
Q: Is the global aviation sector prepared
for the impacts of climate change?
A: Guidance material has been developed
but training and raising awareness should
be conducted as well. (State)
A: Rising awareness and capacity building
for climate change among community
and aviation stake holders, and promote
environment friendly strategy. (State)
We see a lot of good examples of risk
assessments carried out. We believe such
assessments are the most important basis for a
rational approach to climate adaptation.
(Airport)
What next for CAEP/12?
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• ICAO Environment Report 2019
• Disseminate information in the Climate
Adaptation Synthesis
• New work on risk assessment and
adaptation measures
Conclusions
• Awareness is growing: more States
and aviation sector organisations
taking action
• But, we can do more, and more
quickly
• First step is a climate change risk
assessment to identify vulnerabilities
• Then develop a climate change
adaptation strategy or plan
• Individual solutions for individual
organisations, but –
• Global network = global challenge
• We all need to take action
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