the impact of an adult child’s emigration on the mental health of older parents
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The Impact of an Adult Child’s Emigration on the Mental Health of Older Parents. Alan Barrett and Irene Mosca 31 January 2014. Structure of the talk. Motivation why are we interested in the question of whether a child’s emigration might impact upon the mental health of parents? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The Impact of an Adult Child’s Emigration on the Mental Health
of Older Parents
Alan Barrett and Irene Mosca31 January 2014
Structure of the talk
• Motivation– why are we interested in the question of whether a child’s
emigration might impact upon the mental health of parents? – where is this paper placed in the literature?
• The data, the method and the variables – TILDA, a fixed effects approach and the mental health measures
• The sample and descriptive stats• Results• Conclusions
Motivation (1)
• Why is the research question of interest?• From a national (Irish) perspective– Emigration is often characterised as a
consequence of recession that affects younger people; but maybe there is an effect on older people too
• From an international perspective– A growing literature on the impact of migration on
the family members left behind (Antman, 2013)
Motivation (2)
• What are the impacts of migration on the family members left behind?
• On children’s education• On children’s health• On spouse’s labour supply• On parents’ health• This is where we come in
Data, method and variables (1)• TILDA Wave 1 collected between 2009 and 2011• Extensive information collected on 8,500 people aged 50
and over; response rate 62%• The data covers economic, social and health circumstances• Intensive efforts to keep people engaged between Wave 1
and Wave 2: birthday cards, newsletters, certificate of participation
• TILDA Wave 2 collected in 2012• Response rate was 90% (including an end-of-life interview
and proxy interview)
Data, method and variables (2)
• Critically for our purposes, we have measures of mental health for the respondents and we know where their children were living in Waves 1 and 2
• We also know a lot about other changes between Waves 1 and 2 such as bereavement, retirement, onset of illness
• Hence, we can explore whether mental health changed in response to a child’s emigration controlling for other changes over this period
Data, method and variables (3)
• By focusing on changes, we difference away time-invariant unobservables which may be correlated with both the child’s emigration and parental mental health
• We follow Lindeboom et al (2003) and Wooldridge and estimate a fixed effects model by differencing the basic equation and applying OLS
Data, method and variables (4)• Measuring mental health• Depression
– CESD is 20-item Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale. It measures the degree to which respondents have experienced a wide variety of depressive symptoms within the past week. Each of the 20 items is measured on a 4 point scale leading to a min score of 0 and a max score of 60.
– Self-rated emotional/mental health on a 1 (excellent)-5 (poor) scale
• Loneliness– UCLA Loneliness Scale. Cross-sectional score ranges between 0
(not lonely) to 10 (extremely lonely).
The sample
• We select people who are parents of children aged 16 and over at Wave 1; we exclude parents with children who are younger than 16
• We only look at parents all of whose children were living in Ireland at Wave 1
• This gives a sample of 2,912 parents• Of this group, 361 had seen a child emigrate
between Waves 1 and 2
Descriptive Stats – Variables in regressions
Men & Women togetherNo children emigrating
1+ children emigrating
Outcome variables Change in CES-D score, mean -0.518 0.151 Change in self-reported mental health score, mean 0.135 0.166 Change in UCLA loneliness score, mean 0.029 0.226
Demographic changes: Widowhood 1.5% 0.3% Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 43.8% 47.3% Health changes: New ADL 4.2% 1.4%** New IADL 5.6% 1.1%*** Cardiovascular disorder 21.9% 21.7% Chronic illness 26.6% 22.7% 1-point deterioration in self-reported health 19.8% 18.2% 2-point deterioration in self-reported health 4.8% 4.0% Economic changes: Retired 4.6% 6.3% Unemployed 1.1% 2.8%** Change in weekly individual gross income, mean 1.458 -15.755Changes in children’s conditions: 1+ children unemployed 11.6% 10.1% 1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 5.1% 5.1%
Variables not in regressionsMen & Women together
No children emigrating
1+ children emigrating
Age, mean 66.3 60.5***
Education:
Low 41.5% 22.7%*** Medium 43.8% 52.1%***
High 14.7% 25.2%***
Depression score at wave 1 6.07 4.68***Loneliness score at wave 1 1.60 1.47SR mental/emotional health at wave 1 2.22 2.17SR physical health at wave 1 2.67 2.47**
Descriptives for the children
Non-emigrating children
Emigrating children
Age, mean 35.9 28.6***
High education at w1 30.8% 43.8%***
Results
ΔCESD – full sample Men & women
Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 5.156*** (3.88)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 0.731** (2.42)New ADL 1.828** (2.00)New IADL 0.544 (0.64)Cardiovascular disorder 0.945*** (2.68)Chronic illness 0.546 (1.58)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.944*** (2.87)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 2.024*** (2.97)Retired 1.072*** (2.65)Unemployed 0.634 (0.49)Change in income (000s) -0.0431 (-0.46)1+ children emigrated 0.809* (1.78)1+ children unemployed 0.305 (0.69)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 0.965 (1.22) Constant -1.799*** (-7.67)N 2912
ΔCESD – men and womenWomen only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 5.136*** (2.89) 5.001*** (3.20)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 1.165*** (2.88) 0.128 (0.33)New ADL 2.378** (2.01) 0.643 (0.53)New IADL 0.473 (0.45) 0.880 (0.65)Cardiovascular disorder 1.024** (2.01) 0.838** (2.05)Chronic illness 0.808* (1.75) 0.0946 (0.19)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 1.760*** (3.80) -0.0973 (-0.23)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 1.363 (1.51) 3.080*** (2.81)Retired 1.179* (1.80) 0.821* (1.71)Unemployed -2.660 (-1.03) 1.980 (1.50)Change in income (000s) -0.0563 (-0.41) -0.0225 (-0.20)1+ children emigrated 1.229** (2.06) 0.292 (0.54)1+ children unemployed 0.418 (0.71) 0.0508 (0.09)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 1.011 (0.96) 0.725 (0.86) Constant -2.380*** (-7.05) -1.019*** (-3.27)N 1707 1205
Δ self-rated mental healthWomen only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 0.365 (1.46) 0.338 (1.16)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends -0.00512 (-0.10) 0.0345 (0.55)New ADL 0.0809 (0.51) 0.0711 (0.42)New IADL 0.0717 (0.51) 0.0177 (0.10)Cardiovascular disorder 0.00740 (0.11) 0.0122 (0.17)Chronic illness 0.113** (2.05) 0.0443 (0.54)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.419*** (5.98) 0.449*** (6.44)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.871*** (6.54) 1.020*** (5.69)Retired 0.0717 (0.64) 0.261** (2.45)Unemployed 0.203 (0.81) 0.224 (0.99)Change in income (000s) -0.00082 (-0.03) -0.0251 (-1.31)1+ children emigrated 0.166** (2.20) -0.0738 (-0.93)1+ children unemployed 0.117 (1.44) -0.0930 (-0.88)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 0.188* (1.67) -0.0592 (-0.41) Constant -0.0677 (-1.44) -0.0436 (-0.87)N 1707 1205
Δ loneliness scoreWomen only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 0.495 (0.65) 1.712* (1.94)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 0.167 (1.47) 0.0468 (0.36)Change in positive exchanges score -0.0940*** (-5.56) -0.0504*** (-3.21)Change in negative exchanges score 0.0595*** (4.10) 0.0517*** (3.69)New ADL -0.480 (-0.88) 0.574 (0.94)New IADL -0.136 (-0.40) -0.200 (-0.33)Cardiovascular disorder -0.213 (-1.40) 0.00918 (0.06)Chronic illness 0.244* (1.76) -0.243 (-1.28)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.252* (1.70) -0.0500 (-0.30)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.446* (1.67) -0.277 (-1.18)Retired -0.0707 (-0.33) -0.0696 (-0.39)Unemployed 0.0838 (0.13) 0.506 (1.34)Change in income (000s) -0.164** (-2.29) 0.0135 (0.41)1+ children emigrated 0.432*** (2.78) -0.0320 (-0.14)1+ children unemployed -0.203 (-1.01) 0.362 (1.49)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single -0.00888 (-0.04) 0.127 (0.40) Constant -0.0945 (-0.89) 0.0338 (0.33)N 983 749
A potential problem
• (Apparently), people with poor mental health experience faster declines in mental health
• If this is the case, our fixed effects approach could still be producing misleading results
• To deal with this, we (1) restrict the sample to those with low CESD scores in Wave 1 (<16) and (2) we interact the “child emigrate” variable with a retrospective indicator of mental health problems
ΔCESD – CESD <16 at W1Women only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 4.450*** (3.01) 4.300*** (3.17)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 0.419 (1.21) 0.162 (0.48)New ADL 1.927 (1.40) 1.142 (0.96)New IADL 1.478 (1.56) 1.330 (1.04)Cardiovascular disorder 1.055** (2.23) 0.590 (1.57)Chronic illness 1.405*** (3.53) 0.216 (0.43)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.866* (1.96) -0.0946 (-0.28)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 1.201 (1.63) 2.602** (2.45)Retired 0.526 (0.83) 0.148 (0.31)Unemployed -0.149 (-0.07) 1.267 (0.94)Change in income (000s) -0.144 (-1.14) -0.0742 (-0.90)1+ children emigrated 0.917* (1.66) -0.0847 (-0.17)1+ children unemployed 0.120 (0.20) 0.296 (0.60)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 1.410 (1.49) 0.332 (0.40) Constant -0.972*** (-3.40) -0.291 (-1.06)N 1511 1137
Δ self-rated mental health – good or better at W1Women only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 0.358 (1.38) 0.297 (0.81)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends -0.00675 (-0.13) 0.0468 (0.75)New ADL 0.129 (0.75) 0.0365 (0.20)New IADL 0.251* (1.75) 0.0824 (0.39)Cardiovascular disorder 0.0326 (0.48) 0.0445 (0.60)Chronic illness 0.0853 (1.49) 0.0323 (0.38)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.381*** (5.49) 0.427*** (6.07)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.776*** (5.55) 1.064*** (5.76)Retired 0.0274 (0.24) 0.185* (1.73)Unemployed 0.246 (1.11) 0.156 (0.68)Change in income (000s) -0.00045 (-0.02) -0.0241 (-1.29)1+ children emigrated 0.181** (2.46) -0.128 (-1.58)1+ children unemployed 0.149* (1.78) -0.0335 (-0.31)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single
0.209* (1.88) -0.0803 (-0.58)
Constant 0.0527 (1.12) 0.0300 (0.60)N 1528 1120
Mothers only Fathers only Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Widowhood 5.028*** (2.82) 4.892*** (3.15)Loss of close relatives/friends 1.132*** (2.83) 0.124 (0.32)Loss in functional capacity (new ADL) 2.286* (1.94) 0.712 (0.58)Loss in functional capacity (new IADL) 0.727 (0.71) 0.909 (0.67)Cardiovascular disorder 1.010** (1.99) 0.858** (2.09)Chronic illness 0.756* (1.65) 0.0768 (0.15)1-point deterioration in self-rated health 1.752*** (3.77) -0.120 (-0.29)2-point deterioration in self-rated health 1.356 (1.50) 3.012*** (2.74)Retirement 1.206* (1.82) 0.771 (1.60)Unemployment -2.709 (-1.04) 2.013 (1.52)Change in income (000s) -0.0470 (-0.34) -0.0348 (-0.32)Ref: No child’s emigration * no history of depression No child’s emigration * history of depression -1.995 (-1.64) -1.741 (-1.20) Child’s emigration * no history of depression 0.870 (1.44) 0.308 (0.60) Child’s emigration * history of depression 7.108*** (2.97) -1.182 (-0.33)Child’s unemployment 0.430 (0.73) 0.109 (0.18)Child’s marital breakdown/widowhood 0.886 (0.85) 0.690 (0.82) Constant -2.229*** (-6.70) -0.934*** (-3.06)N 1706 1205
ΔCESD; with interactions between history of mental health problems and child emigrate
• Does this suggest that there may be reverse causality?
• Were children whose parents had suffered a mental health problem more likely to emigrate?
• We test this by running a probit regression where “child emigrate” is now the dependent variable.
Probit with child emigrate as dependent variable Mothers only Fathers only Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.Age -0.0457*** (-6.47) -0.0519*** (-5.52)Medium education 0.164 (1.31) 0.161 (1.22)High education 0.285* (1.94) 0.407*** (2.73)Employed -0.175 (-1.13) -0.0969 (-0.61)Other -0.150 (-1.10) 0.0242 (0.12)Another town/city -0.179 (-1.35) -0.0101 (-0.07)Rural area -0.185 (-1.58) 0.0221 (0.16)Income 2nd quintile 0.0349 (0.26) -0.182 (-0.80)Income 3rd quintile -0.0703 (-0.41) -0.267 (-1.23)Income 4th quintile 0.149 (1.00) -0.0902 (-0.49)Income 5th quintile 0.0847 (0.49) -0.163 (-0.94)Married/cohabiting 0.0471 (0.41) 0.273 (1.63)Number of children 0.144*** (5.41) 0.187*** (5.57)Return migrant 0.160 (1.30) 0.346*** (2.61)Past diagnosis of depression -0.106 (-0.45) 0.306 (1.31)CES-D score -0.0145** (-1.98) -0.0119 (-1.09)Good self-rated health 0.0272 (0.27) 0.0175 (0.13)Fair/poor self-rated health -0.103 (-0.64) -0.0704 (-0.36)Past diagnosis of cancer -0.0406 (-0.22) 0.195 (0.73)Past diagnosis of heart attack -0.417 (-0.92) -0.918** (-2.23)Constant 1.290*** (2.66) 1.271** (2.09)N 1,589 1,134
And can we take the push to emigrate as being an exogenous shock?
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Emigrants in 1,000s
Does it matter that the emigrants’ parents are younger?
Women only Men onlyCoeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.
Widowhood 7.455*** (3.22) 6.266*** (11.54)Decrease in number of close relatives/friends 1.479** (2.56) -0.282 (-0.53)Cardiovascular disorder 1.455** (1.97) 1.318** (2.33)Chronic illness 1.409** (2.17) -0.103 (-0.14)1-point deterioration in self-reported health 1.712*** (2.59) 0.300 (0.50)2-point deterioration in self-reported health 0.894 (0.58) 4.377*** (2.73)Retired 1.549 (1.55) 0.981* (1.65)1+ children emigrated 1.594** (2.30) 0.410 (0.62)1+ children widowed/separated/divorced/single 3.200** (2.37) 0.453 (0.36) Constant -2.788*** (-5.44) -0.979** (-2.22)N 1038 652
CESD regression for those aged 65 and under – only significant coefficients shown here
Does it matter if the emigrating child is a son or daughter?
Women only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.
Child emigrating is male 1.162 (1.33) 0.161 (0.21)
Child emigrating is female 1.940** (2.21) 0.534 (0.59)
N 1733 1207
CESD regression – only showing coefficients for emigrant child dummy variables – Different point estimates but not statistically significant
Does it matter if the emigrating child was living with the parents at W1?
Women only Men only
Coeff. t stat. Coeff. t stat.
Child emigrating was co-resident at w1 1.036 (1.01) 0.571 (0.76)
Child emigrating was NOT co-resident at w1
1.355* (1.91) 0.0217 (0.03)
N 1753 1226
CESD regression – no statistically significant difference
Other things we looked at...
• Age of emigrating child• Does the emigrating child have children (ie.
grandchildren of our participants)• Results as expected but no statistically
significant differences between estimated coefficients
Conclusion
• There appears to be reasonably robust evidence that the emigration of an adult child affects of the mental health of mothers.
• But effect strongest among mothers with a previous history of depression
• This is important in itself but also in terms of how mental health impacts upon physical health
• There might also be impacts on potential emigrants and another dimension to Mincer’s (1978) “tied stayers”