the impact of biosimilars’ entry in the eu market...duration of the competition free market...
TRANSCRIPT
The impact of biosimilars’ entry in the EU market
Joan Rovira, Jaime Espín, Leticia García
and Antonio Olry de Labry
Andalusian School of Public Health
January, 2011
1
Disclaimer This document has been prepared in the framework of a service contract with the European Commission (Directorate-General for Enterprise and Industry). The views expressed therein are purely those of the writers and should not be regarded as stating a position of the European Commission or its services. The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this document, nor does it accept responsibility for the use made thereof. Acknowledgements The authors thank IMS Spain for kindly providing us with the analysis of market data from the MIDAS database. Data have been collected from the database and elaborated by Leandro Lindner and Emmanuel Jiménez. We would like also to thank Sabine Vogler (GÖG/ÖBIG), Sotiris Vandoros (LSE), Suzette Kox and Paul Greenland (EGA) and Christophe Roeland, Thomas Heynish and Hilda Juhasz (EC) for their comments and inputs. Finally, despite all the above contributions, the authors remain responsible for any errors or misunderstandings reflected in this report.
2
Table of contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY....................................................................................................... 7
9
11
18
1819
23
2326262931
34
39
394041
43
4344
46
49
52
61
68
1. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY .....................................................................
2. BACKGROUND .........................................................................................................
3. POLICY AND LEGISLATION IN THE EU .......................................................................
3.1 COMMON LEGISLATION AND POLICIES ........................................................................................... 3.2. NATIONAL P&R POLICIES ON BIOSIMILARS IN THE EU MEMBER STATES. .............................................
4. ANALYSIS OF BIOSIMILARS IN THE EU MARKETS ......................................................
4.1 METHODOLOGY AND DATA......................................................................................................... 4.2. RESULTS .................................................................................................................................
4.2.1. Launch dates and competition‐free periods of biological reference products. ................... 4.2.2. The Evolution of the European Biosimilars Market ............................................................. 4.2.3. The prices of biosimilars and reference products................................................................
5. PRODUCT PIPELINE ..................................................................................................
6. ASSESSING THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF BIOSIMILAR MARKETS IN THE EU AND ITS IMPACT ON NATIONAL DRUG BUDGETS .....................................................................
6.1. PREDICTIONS AND FORECASTS ..................................................................................................... 6.2. DEVELOPING MODELS OF THE MARKET DYNAMICS OF BIOLOGICALS‐BIOSIMILARS ................................... 6.3. A HYPOTHETICAL MODEL FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES .....................................................................
7. OPPORTUNITIES AND EFFECTS OF PROMOTING THE USE OF BIOSIMILARS FOR THE MAIN STAKEHOLDERS......................................................................................................
7.1. USERS, PAYERS AND REIMBURSING AUTHORITIES............................................................................. 7.2. PRODUCERS OF BIOSIMILARS .......................................................................................................
8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...............................................................
REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................
ANNEX 1. TABLES.............................................................................................................
ANNEX 2 .INTERVIEWS WITH P&R OFFICIALS OF EU MEMBER STATES..............................
ANNEX 3. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................
3
List of tables
Table 1. Cost to US Consumers of Some Commonly Used Biologic Medicines* 11
15
15
24
28
29
30
31
33
36
37
37
38
52
54
55
57
59
Table 2. Biosimilars Market Authorisation Applications (MAA) Procedures.
Status by October 2010
Table 3. Biosimilars in the EU: reference products and approval dates.
Table 4. Launch dates of biosimilars and of their reference products
Table 5. Duration of the competition free market position of the reference products
(years)
Table 6. The global biosimilars market in Europe (in thousands €)
Table 7. Market value: Total market, biologics and biologics with biosimilars.
Absolute values in million € and market share in % . 2009
Table 8. Mean discount in all countries
Table 9. Expected Key‐Patent Expiry Dates for Leading Biologic Drugs, 2009‐2010
Table 10. Global market value (2008) of leading biologic drugs with estimated patent
expiration in the EU between 2009‐2019
Table 11. Market value (2008) of leading biologic drugs with patent expiration in the
EU between 2009‐2019, by therapeutic class
Table 12. Estimated biosimilar market potential: 2009 value of products whose
patent is expected to expire between 2009‐2019. In absolute value and as % of
biologicals’ market.
Table A.1. Relative price discounts between the reference product and biosimilar
prices
Table A2 . Estimating the financial impact of biosimilars
Table A3. Sales of originators and biosimilars in European markets: value in €,
average price (€ per DDD) and estimated units sold (DDDs)
Table A4. Sales of originators and biosimilars in European markets: value in €.
average price (€ per DDD) and estimated units sold (DDDs)
Tabla A.5. Percentage of biosimilars sales with respect to originals in the EU market
4
List of Figures
Figure 1. Sales of originators and biosimilars in German markets. ......................... 30
32
33
39
42
Figure 2. Price of Filgastrim and biosimilar in euro. Year 2009...............................
Figure 3. Inter‐country price variations (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) ......
Figure 4. Market Size ........................................................................................
Figure 5. Evolution of consumption and expenditure per year in each scenario ......
5
Acronyms – List of Abbreviations
CARG Cumulative annual growth rate
CKD Chronic Kidney Disease
DDD Defined Daily Doses
EC European Commission
EGA European Generics Association
EMEA /EMA European Medicines Agency
EU European Union
FDA Food and Drug Administration
GBP Great Britain pound
GH Growth hormone
HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
I&D Innovation and Development
IMS Intercontinental Marketing Services
INN International Non‐proprietary Name
IP Intellectual property
LMWH Low‐molecular weight heparins
MAA Market Authorisation Approval
MNC Multinational Corporation
MPA Medical Products Agency
MS Member State
P&R Pricing and Reimbursement
R&D Research and Development
UK United Kingdom
US United States
WTO World Health Organization
6
Executive Summary Biologicals constitute a growing segment of the medicines market. Biological medicines have made substantial contributions to improving the effectiveness of therapies in many disease areas and they are expected to continue to do so in the future. But these benefits come at increasingly higher treatment costs, which endanger accessibility and the financial sustainability of health systems. The expiration of patents and other intellectual property rights of biological innovators opened the opportunity for biosimilars to enter the market and increase competition among producers of biologicals. However, the characteristics of biological medicines, particularly the nature of their production process and the need to guarantee the patient safety, require higher standards for authorising competitors than those required for conventional generics. While generics of small‐size molecule medicines are only required to carry out relatively small and inexpensive bioequivalence trials in order to obtain market authorisation and be considered therapeutically equivalent to the reference medicine (and hence substitutable), the situation is very different for biosimilars. Obtaining marketing authorisation for biosimilars requires a extensive and costly process of clinical development and does not automatically ensure substitutability with the reference product. Therefore, the market dynamic of biological medicines is likely to diverge from that of conventional small ‐molecule medicines: The price reduction due to competition and the degree of competitors’ market penetration is significantly lower, which might lead to smaller savings in expenditure when compared with small molecule generics.. Still, in absolute terms, given the high prices of the patented biological medicines, even small price reductions might lead to substantial savings. The EU has led the process of regulating the authorisation of biosimilars and has become a benchmark for other countries. However, biosimilars only began to enter EU markets in 2007. As of October 2010, the EMA has approved 14 biosimilars medicines ‐ out of 18 submissions ‐ which correspond to three reference products: somatropin, epoetin alfa and filgrastim. The empirical evidence on the evolution of biosimilars markets is therefore limited and no precise pattern of the market’s dynamics can be inferred with confidence. A quantitative analysis of the biosimilar market in the EU Member States estimates the growth of biosimilars’ market value: from 33 million Euros in 2007 to 65 million Euros in 2009. The market penetration of biosimilars rose on average from 0.34% to 6.64% in the same period. The price of biosimilars is on average between 10 % and 35 % lower than the respective reference products. These figures have to be taken with caution, because they are
7
based on list prices, which do not take into account the discounts and rebates often accorded by suppliers, especially to hospitals and other institututional buyers. An estimate of the market value of existing original biologic products which will lose patent protection in upcoming years, suggests that by 2019 aproximately 50 % of the market will correspond to off‐patent medicines, thus suggesting a high market potential for biosimilars. To what extent such market potential will be achieved is, however, difficult to assess. The future evolution and market penetration of biosimilars will depend on several factors. Most EU Member States are opposed to automatic substitution. Doctors and patients are often reluctant to substitution, as well. Market projections vary significantly since they depend on a set of parameters (mainly price differentials between biosimilars and the reference product as well as biosimilars’ market penetration) for which existing evidence is still limited, therefore, they must be based on the subjective judgements of experts. Member States concerned about accessibility to medicines and the financial sustainability of health systems will face difficult challenges in the case of biologic medicines. Generic competition will not play the same role in that sector that it plays in the case of conventional medicines. National health authorities can, nevertheless, promote and disseminate research on the quality and safety of biosimilars and on the feasibility of substitution in particular cases. They might also introduce incentives to substitution to patients and doctors when there is enough evidence that it does not compromise the treatment’s effectiveness and safety. Finally, the relatively limited effectiveness of competition in reducing prices when exclusivity rights expire means that authorities concerned by escalating treatment costs will have to rely more on alternative strategies, such as value ‐based pricing and reimbursement.
8
1. Objectives and scope of the study The objectives of the present study are:
To analyse the characteristics of biosimilars and the development of the EU’s biosimilars market in order to improve Member States’ understanding of the market and its mechanisms.
To explore the likely impact of biosimilars on future pharmaceutical budgets based on different scenarios and models.
To identify opportunities and challenges for industry, patients and payers,as well as appropriate pricing and reimbursement options and other policy practices, in order to encourage the exchange of knowledge and the adoption of best practices in addition to stimulating joint actions.
Section 1 presents the objectives and outlines the structure and content of the report. Section 2 defines and briefly discusses key concepts related to biological and biosimilar medicines while also outlining similarities and differences in relation to chemically produced small‐molecule medicines and generics. It is based on the results of the literature search and on input from selected experts. Section 3 explores the specific regulation of biosimilars and on‐going initiatives to promote biosimilar penetration in the EU and several Member States. It is based on interviews with several members of the EU P&R Network (Italy, Spain and the UK) and from presentations at meetings, in addition to interviews with experts. Section 4 includes a quantitative analysis of the EU biosimilars markets based on the IMS MIDAS database. It provides information at the country level on unit sales and market value, unit prices of existing biosimilars and their respective reference products, and biosimilar penetration. Section 5 provides an overview and quantitative estimate of the future potential market for biosimilars based on estimated expiry dates of patents for a set of the most important biologicals. Section 6 discusses the methodology, data requirements and assumptions necessary for modelling the future impact of biosimilars on pharmaceutical expenditure and develops a simple impact model for illustrative purposes. Section 7 identifies a set of opportunities and challenges for the various stakeholders involved, based on the literature review, the statements of stakeholders and the authors’ analysis.
9
In section 8 the report presents several conclusions and recommendations for policy makers. Annex 1 contains tables with data provided by IMS that have been used in the analysis contained in Section 4. Annex 2 includes the full, completed questionnaires sent in written form or obtained by telephone interviews with members of the EU P&R Network. Annex 3 contains a comprehensive description of the methodology of the literature review along with a brief summary of the relevant documents selected.
10
2. Background Biopharmaceuticals (“biologicals”) are a rapidly growing class of pharmaceuticals which have provided the best available therapies for several life‐threatening diseases such as cancer, multiple sclerosis, diabetes and some rare diseases. Their elevated potential to effectively treat diseases for which no appropriate therapies currently exist, has been widely accepted. But biologicals also have a negative side: high prices which restrict access and generate added stress on health systems’ already costly pharmaceutical budgets. Biological products are usually very expensive; some annual treatment costs fall in the range of US$25,000 to $100,000 (35,000 to 140,000 euros), others can be as high as $200,000 (280,000 euros) (Table 1).
Table 1. Cost to US Consumers of Some Commonly Used Biologic Medicines*
Drug Name Indication Annual Cost ($)
Etanercept (Enbrel, Amgen and Wyeth)
Rheumatoid arthritis 26,247
Trastuzumab (Herceptin, Genentech)
Breast cancer 37,180
Interferon beta‐1a (Rebif, EMD Serono and Pfizer)
Multiple sclerosis 39,505
Adalimumab (Humira, Abbott) Rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s disease
50,933†
Imatinib (Gleevec, Novartis) Leukemia and gastrointestinal Stromal tumor
56,424†
Epoetin alfa (Epogen, Amgen) Anemia of chronic renal disease
8,447
Imiglucerase (Cerezyme, Genzyme)
Gaucher’s disease 200,000
Source: Engelberg, 2009; * Full cost estimates were annualized on the basis of a reasonable course of therapy for the given indica on. † Costs are for the treatment of Crohn’s disease and gastrointestinal stromal tumors
The cost of biologic therapies in Europe is assumed to be lower due to the lower prices of medicines. The only reference found on that issue estimates the annual cost of treatment with Erythropoesis‐stimulating agents in Germany in a range of 4,000 to 4,800 euros1.
1 Expenses per year: Epoetin alfa (Erypo®): 4,163 euros; Epoetin beta (Neorecormon®): 3,933 euros; Epoetin zeta (Silapo®, Retacrit®): 3,095 euros; Darbepoetin (Aranesp®): 4,743 euros; Cera (Mircera®): 4,440 eros. Source: Lauertaxe, 2010. Quoted by G. Lonnemann, Biosimilar epoetin zeta in nephrology – a single‐dialysis center experience. Biosimilar Medicines. 8th EGA International Symposium. London, 2‐3 September 2010.
11
Biosimilars are medicines intended to have the same mechanism of action as the original biological medicine and to be used in treating the same disease. The development of biosimilars is based on the comparability to a reference biological product (originator biopharmaceutical). In fact, the legal term introduced in the year 2003 in the EU Directive 2003/63/EC (amending 2001/83/EC) is “similar biological medicinal product”, although such products are commonly known as “biosimilars”. In this directive, they are defined as a biological medicine with proven similarity to another biological medicine previously licensed within the EU2,3. Biosimilars have also been referred to in other terms: follow‐on‐biologics (the usual name in the US), subsequent entry biologics (Canada), similar biotherapeutic products (WHO), biogenerics, biocomparables, follow‐on proteins, etc. The term biogenerics is probably misleading as biosimilars usually differ from generics both in their own characteristics as in the regulations that apply to them. Generics of chemically manifactured small molecules are based on bioequivalence, while biosimilars are based on similarity to the reference product (e.g. biologically manufactured recombinant proteins. A generic is defined by the EMA as “a medicine which is similar to a medicine that has already been authorized” (the ‘reference medicine’). A generic medicine contains the same quantity of active substance(s) as the reference medicine. Generic and reference medicines are used at the same dose to treat the same disease, and they are equally safe and effective.”4 Generics are not required to carry out the same type of clinical tests as the original drug they replicate, only equivalence tests. Therefore, the development costs for generics are much lower than for originators. This is not the case with biosimilars. Also biosimilars need to establish a pharmacovigilance system and a risk management plan that is assessed as a part of their marketing authorization application. Regarding pharmacovigilance, Sierakoviak and Syed (2009, p.45) suggest that in order to ensure that any adverse event is attributed to the right product “ideally, the physicians should be able to report adverse events by reporting more than just the INN. They should report INN + brand name + batch number, which would avoid attribution of adverse events to a product from another manufacturer, e.g. in case of immunogenicity reaction.” This view also reflects the EGA’s position. Of course that recommendation would apply to biosimilars and originators alike. As a matter of fact, the new EU pharma legislation on pharmacovigilance stipulates that Member States will ensure the tracibility of biological products by brand name and batch number by collecting information and, when necessary, by following up on suspected adverse reaction reports. This adds to the cost of biosimilars and represents an essential difference with generics.
2 (Sierakoviak and Syed, 2009). (EMA definition in 2006 was: “medicines which are similar to a biological medicine that has already been authorized (the ‘biological reference medicine’). The active substance of a biosimilar medicine is similar to the one of the biological reference medicine. Biosimilar and biological reference medicines are used in general at the same dose to treat the same disease. Since biosimilar and biological reference medicines are similar but not identical, the decision to treat a patient with a reference or a biosimilar medicine should be taken following the opinion of a qualified healthcare professional. The name, appearance and packaging of a biosimilar medicine differ from those of the biological reference medicine.” 3 Roger, 2006. p. 341‐6 4 EMA, 2007 p. 1.
12
Health policy makers tend to see the potential of biosimilars as a force in reducing prices and expenditures while creating broader access to treatments once the exclusivity rights of original products have expired. The availability of lower‐priced biosimilars is likely to allow increased access, because some products might be funded for indications which are presently not covered because of a high cost‐effectiveness ratio and/or to control expenditure. This view is based on the experience of the market dynamics of conventional small molecule medicines, where the entry of generics (when exclusivity rights expire and depending on the policies applied) can reduce the drug’s price by up to 80% of the originators pre‐expiry price. The present system to promote pharmaceutical innovation is mainly based on granting patents and test data protection to innovative products. Its alleged aim is to permit the recovery of investment costs in R&D and to earn a profit appropriate for the R&D‐associated risks it faces. Patents provide temporary exclusive marketing rights to the the right’s holder, which allows that entity to charge prices far above those that would prevail under competition. Data protection does not confer the right of market exclusivity, as no one is prevented from entering the market. However, the subsequent market authorisation holder can not refer to or rely on the data submitted by the originator. Thus, while not a legal exclusivity right, it nevertheless implies that competitors must carry out their own clinical trials, which increases the costs of launching their products and reduces the feasibility of price competition. According the TRIP´s agreement all countries which are members of the WTO must provide a minimum protection period of 20 years to a patent, irrespective of the nature of the invention. This system has always faced criticisms, since no theoretical agreement exists on what should be an efficient or optimal duration of the exclusivity and whether it should be the same for all technologies. Moreover, in practice, the effective duration of the exclusivity might extend beyond the said 20 years because products are usually protected by several patents – e.g. process patents that define the biological properties of the medicine – and by strategies applied by the patent holders (e.g. evergreening, defensive patenting), as the Commission’s Pharmaceutical Sector Inquiry has shown (European Commission, 2009). Finally, no guarantees exist that the monopolistic extra‐revenues will be invested in future R&D rather than activities of questionable social value, e.g. aggressive marketing, defensive patenting, lobbying, etc. On the other hand, patents are not a guarantee of market monopoly in economic terms, as on‐patent products may have to compete with existing products that serve the same indications, or have its market position weakened or shortened by a competitor launching a similar or an improved follow‐on drug, an authority issuing a compulsory license5 and, in some jurisdictions, price regulation that greatly restricts the ability of the rights’ holders to charge profit‐maximising prices. In any case, the exclusivity‐generic competition model has been the basic mechanism used by countries that recognise product patents on medicines to balance, on the one hand, incentives to innovate and, on
5 In fact, EU Member States have a well‐established policy of refraining from promoting the use of compulsory licenses as an instrument to curb prices, using it instead as an instrument of last resort under exceptional circumstances. They rely mainly on mechanisms related to price regulation and other pricing and reimbursdement policies to ensure affordable prices.
13
the other, improve access and financial sustainability. This is the approach decision makers expect to apply to biologicals as well. Some experts are, however, less optimistic on the potential savings of biosimilars. It is generally agreed that “the complex nature of the manufacturing process and the molecules themselves mean that it cannot be guaranteed that they are absolutely identical to the original product. Therefore, analytical and preclinical tests are not sufficient to demonstrate the sameness of two biological products or that they are identical,” (Lewcock, 2007) but specific trials have to be carried out in order to attain market authorization. Development and manufacturing costs are, in general, higher for biological products than for non‐biologicals, leaving less room for competition to lower prices6,7. In most jurisdictions biosimilars are not considered for automatic substitution with the reference product. Moreover, the innovative industry is intensively lobbying against substitutability and interchangeability and engaging in the development of (second‐generation) modified versions of products whose patents expire, which reduce the market potential of biosimilars of previous versions of the reference product. Substantial opposition to substitution also comes from patients, clinicians and pharmacists. Limited experience is available on biosimilars in Europe because the first one was launched in 2006 and, as of January 2010 (Table 2), only 13 others had obtained approval from the EMA. Nonetheless, expectations are that competition from biosimilars after patent expiry is unlikely to reduce the prices as much as would be the case with conventional drugs. However, the cost of biologic treatments is so high that even modest price reductions might provide substantial savings in absolute terms (Shapiro, 2008).
6 Grabowsky et al (2006) estimate that a plausible range of the cost of developing a biosimilar is US$10‐40 million, whereas for a chemical generic the cost to demonstrate bioequivalence for generic drugs is in the range of US$1‐2 million. 7 DiMasi JA, Grabowskib HG. The Cost of Biopharmaceutical R&D: Is Biotech Different? Manage. Decis. Econ. 28: 469–479 (2007)
14
Table 2. Biosimilars Market Authorisation Applications (MAA) Procedures.
Status by October 2010
Source: EMA
BIOSIMILAR COMPANY STATUS
1 Omnitrope (somatropin) Sandoz Authorised 2 Valtropin (Somatropin) Biopartners Authorised 3 Alpheon (interferon alfa) Biopartners Negative 4 Binocrit (epoetin alfa) Sandoz Authorised 5 Epoetin alfa Hexal (epoetin alfa) Hexal Authorised 6 Abseamed (epoetin alfa) Medice Authorised 7 Silapo (epoetin zeta) Stada Authorised 8 Retacrit (epoetin zeta) Hospira Authorised 9 Insulin Marvel Short (human insulin) Marvel Life Sci´ Withdrawn 10 Insulin Marvel intermediate (human insulin) Marvel Life Sci´ Withdrawn 11 Insulin Marvel Long (human insulin) Marvel Life Sci´ Withdrawn 12 Filgrastim (filgrastim) Ratiopharm Authorised 13 Ratiograstim (filgrastim) Ratiopharm Authorised 14 Biograstim (filgrastim) CT Arzneimittel Authorised 15 Tevagrastim (filgrastim) Teva Authorised 16 Filgrastim Hexal (filgrastim) Hexal Authorised 17 Zarzio (filgrastim) Sandoz Authorised 18 Nivestim (filgrastim) Hospira Authorised
The debate on substitutability and interchangeability of biosimilars ultimately addresses the question of how similar biosimilars are or should be in order to qualify for substitutability and interchangeability and, in general, for the regulatory advantages granted to generic drugs. Given the established policy of the EC not to sacrifice patient safety, how much variability would be acceptable in order to recognize both a product’s equivalence and its formulation? Although substitutability and interchangeability are often used as synonyms8, according to the European Generic Medicines Association (EGA) interchangeability essentially refers to the “doctor’s ability to prescribe a biosimilar in place of the reference product” and substitutability is to allow “pharmacists to dispense a biosimilar rather than the reference drug” (Mansell, 2007, p.259). Substitutability is clearly a more contentious issue, as the decision is made by the pharmacists, after a prescription has already been written. Interchangeability might be applied also to decisions at the formulary committee level. The main parties in this debate are the originators and the generics/biosimilars industries and their respective trade associations. Other stakeholders are drug regulatory agencies, WHO, insurers/payers, patients, doctors, pharmacists, etc.
8 The term interchangeability in the US, but not in Europe, means automatic substitution which refers to the practice of dispensing one medicine instead of another equivalent and interchangeable medicine at the pharmacy level without requiring consultation with the prescriber.
15
Although all positions are allegedly based on scientific arguments, the debate clearly reflects the perceptions, prejudices and interests of all parties involved. Acceptance of a biosimilar’s substitutability and interchangeability might depend not only on scientific evidence, but also on more subjective perceptions of the product’s particular characteristics9 . Originators make an effort to highlight the differences between reference products and biosimilars, along with the health risks that substitution poses to patients, especially the possible switch from an originator's to a biosimilar product. They claim that due to characteristics of the production process, a biosimilar product cannot be identical, only similar or equivalent. Biosimilars should, in this view, be required to present almost the same clinical evidence as the originators which, of course, would increase the cost of putting them on the market. On the other hand, it could be argued that it isn’t ethical to conduct large clinical efficacy trials for well‐known molecules whose mechanism of action is already understood. That is why clinical trials for biosimilars are designed to show comparability. The position maintained by both the generics and the biosimilars industry is that interchangeability is probably the key concept for biosimilars and that the differences are greatly exaggerated by originators’ claims in order to preserve their monopolies. Nevertheless they have been very supportive of EU legislation on biosimilars and consider it a benchmark to be emulated by major trading partners. Biosimilars must meet higher approval requirements than generics with conventional low molecular weight molecules, including the conduction of pre‐clinical and clinical trials. The reason for applying stricter requirements on biosmilars has to do with extreme concerns regarding the drug’s effectiveness and the safety conditions that prevail during the production process (cell‐based production, highly sensitive to changes in culture conditions. Unlike non‐biological medicines, which are usually produced through processes of chemical synthesis, biological medicines are produced using a living system or organism, and their constituent molecules tend to be much larger and more complex than the relatively simple molecular structure of conventional medicines. Other concerns include storage conditions, general environmental factors, and the consequent difficulties involved in reproducing the reference product’s characteristics. Immune response is another leading concern. It is often difficult to identify these differences with analytical techniques prior to testing the product on humans. The difficulties that can arise in proving comparability vary across therapeutic groups and products. In fact, problems related to the exact reproduction of a biological can
9 Sierakoviak and Syed (2009) provide the following example: “Neupogen (Amgen), the first authorized filigrastim, was initially used to diminish neutropenia in a variety of conditions. Nowadays, it is administered to patients in preparation for stem cell transplants. In later years, physicians have opted for pegylated filigrastims to treat neutropenic patients. Since Neupogen is still the only originator non‐pegylated filgrastim on the market, physicians in Denmark are hesitant about shifting to its biosimilar equivalents (which are deemed unsafe). In contrast, several growth hormone (GH) products have existed on the market for several years prior to the development of biosimilars. Physicians in Denmark are, therefore, less anxious about opting for a biosimilar growth hormone.”
16
also appear in any company (originator or biosimilar producers alike) if the cell line or the production plan is changed. Producers of biosimilars might try to avoid patent barriers linked to formulation by developing new alternatives to the originator. But differences in formulation are an additional challenge to equivalence, because biologic substances easily interact with other substances, such as additives. This might represent an additional barrier and development cost to producers of biosimilars. Currently a big debate is underway on how to make biologic drugs affordable and sustainable for health systems while providing appropriate incentives for innovation. There is considerable uncertainty on the future financial burden of biologics as well as the savings they might accrue. Factors such as regulatory environments, technological and manufacturing barriers, market acceptance and competition will determine the market performance of biosimilars. Given the unique traits of biosimilars and the logical concerns for patient safety, it could be implied that they do not and will not follow the same market dynamics as generics once the reference product’s patent expires. Cost containment is apt to rely on regulating the price of original biologicals and biosimilars as well as on establishing rules and incentives to allow and promote substitutability and interchangeability when evidence exists that patient safety is not endangered. Supply policies should also consider the specific characteristics of that sector. The biotechnological industry is a complex set of companies of varying size which often specialise in one part of the product life‐cycle. It includes large multinational companies, as well as smaller biotech companies often originated as spin‐offs from universities, and the sector is characterised by joint‐ventures, mergers, alliances and other types of collaboration models within biotechs and between biotechs and traditional pharmaceutical companies. The former often specialise in the first stages of drug development while the latter provide their expertise and capacities in clinical research, regulatory and intellectual property issues, marketing, etc. This type of specialisation and division of labour seems to apply to the biosimilar business as well.
17
3. Policy and legislation in the EU
3.1 Common legislation and policies The EU has led the way in developing a legal basis for authorising biosimilar products10. The EMA has issued guidelines that detail the requirements for market approval: guidelines on quality issues that describe the requirements regarding manufacturing processes, analytical methods to assess comparability, choice of reference product, and physicochemical and biological characterisation of the biosimilar. The main regulatory texts for biosimilars in the EU are Directive 2003/63/EC, Directive 2004/27/EC and the following guidelines: Overarching Guideline (Guideline on Similar Biological Medicinal Products (EMEA/CHMP/437/04), Guideline on similar biological medicinal products containing biotechnology‐derived proteins as active substance, quality issues (EMEA/CHMP/BWP/49348/2005) and the guideline on similar biological medicinal products containing biotechnology‐derived proteins as active substance, non‐clinical and clinical issues (EMEA/CHMP/BMWP/42832/2005). The guideline on non‐clinical and clinical issues sets out the requirements for pharmaco‐toxicological assessment (non‐clinical studies), and for studies of pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, efficacy and safety clinical studies and a guideline on immunogenicity. The guidelines describe the issues that biosimilar companies must address, including factors than influence immunogenicity, the design and interpretation of assays to evaluate the immunogenic potential of a biosimilar and its comparability to other products, and the implementation of a risk management plan. Besides the general guidelines, product‐class‐specific guidelines have been issued for recombinant erythropoietin, somatropin, human granulocyte colony‐stimulating factor, human insulin, recombinant IFN‐alfa and low‐molecular weight heparins (LMWH) (Roger 2010, p.1013). Regarding data exclusivity, two regimes coexist in the EU. The old regime, which dates back to 1983, was modified in 2004. The new regime applies to all reference products submitted for approval on and after 30 October 2005. The data exclusivity period for biologicals, as for other medicines, under the new regime is known as “8+2+1”. This means that a (generic) applicant shall not be required to provide the results of pre‐clinical tests and clinical trials if he can demonstrate that the medicinal product is a generic version of a reference medicinal product which is or has been authorised for not less than eight years in a Member State or in the Community. However, a generic medicinal product authorised pursuant to this provision shall not be placed on the market until ten years have elapsed from the initial authorisation of the reference product. Moreover, the ten‐ 10 The US has only recently (March, 23 2010) started the legislative process to set up a law that provides an abbreviated approval pathway for biological products that are demonstrated to be similar or interchangeable to with an FDA‐approved product.
18
year period shall be extended to a maximum of eleven years if, during the first eight of those ten years, the marketing authorisation holder obtains an authorisation for one or more new therapeutic indications which are considered to bring significant clinical benefits in comparison with existing therapies. The EU recognises the so‐called ‘Bolar’ clause, which allows the development of conventional generics and similar biologic products during the life of an innovator’s product patent, thus removing the risk of patent infringement during product development. Directive 2003/63/EC) covers the standardised marketing authorisation dossier requirements applicable to any type of medicinal products for human use and to any procedure for granting the marketing authorisation (national, decentralised or centralised procedure). Annex of the Regulation (EC) 726/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council which lists the medicinal products to be authorised by the Community. Among those are the medicinal products developed by means of biotechnological processes. This explains why the current biosimilars have to be approved via the centralised procedure and consequently authorised by the European Commission, rather than by national agencies. Directive 2001/83/EC ammended lays down the legal basis for the application of similar biological medicinal products (article 10.4). EMA approval does not completely guarantee a biosimilar’s interchangeability or substitutability with the originator, but it does allow for interchangeability, i.e. the medical practice of changing one medicine for another equivalent product in a given clinical setting and following the precscriber’s initiative or consent.11. National authorities might legislate on those issues. As early as 2007 both France and Spain passed legislation to ban automatic substitution by the pharmacist without express permission from the prescriber. France has introduced into their national legislation a defintion of a biosimilar medicine. According to it biosimilars do not fall under the definition of generics and are consequently excluded from the French substitution list. Most EU countries seem to be opposed to automatic substitution by pharmacists.
3.2. National P&R policies on biosimilars in the EU Member States.
There is almost no evidence or information in the literature on biosimilar‐specific national P&R policies. For that reason, several EU MS have been contacted by electronic mails and conference calls to collect information on their country’s situation in relation to biosimilars. Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom answered the six‐item questionnaire12. The full answers are included in Annex 2. The next
11 “Since biosimilar and biological reference medicines are similar but not identical, the decision to treat a patient with a reference or a biosimilar medicine should be taken following the opinion of a qualified healthcare professional.” Source: EMA Q&A 12 The questions were related to:
19
paragraphs provide a summary of the answers and some extra additional information regarding other countries, mainly from presentations, published documents and personal communications.
Italy
Substitutability of biosimilars and biological reference products at the pharmacy level is not allowed in the Italian pharmaceutical system due to the diverse nature of biosimilars and biological pharmaceuticals. The official position of AIFA, according to the EMA opinion, is that biological medicines and biosimilars can not be considered in the same way as other generic medicines, excluding therapeutic substitutability. Consequently, in Italy the following apply: Biosimilars available in Italy are not listed in the Transparency List. The choice to treat a patient with an originator biological medicine or a biosimilar is a clinical decision to be made by physicians. Legislative Decree n.219/2006 also introduced a definition for “biosimilar or bioequivalent” and indicated the documentation necessary to obtain approval for a biosimiliar. Pricing and reimbursement procedures for biosimilars are the same as for other medicines. Nevertheless, in order to encourage the access of biosimilars to the market, the initial price reductions applied were more flexible, ranging from 22% to 15% of the initial price. Currently, a progressive price reduction is being applied: beginning with an initial price reduction, a further price reduction is set once a pre‐defined volume threshold has been achieved. Table A.2 in the Annex shows the price reductions negotiated for the 6 products approved. AIFA constantly performs analysis on the overall pharmaceutical area, including biosimilars, in order to provide pharmaceutical expenditure governance in the framework of economic and financial viability
A proposed law still under consideration by the Italian legislature aims at emphasizing the definitions of unsubstitutability for biosimilars at the pharmacy level, and to exclude the interchangeability of biosimilars from public tenders. AIFA’s opinion is that the effect of the proposed law might constitute a barrier to the entry of biosimilars in the market.
1. The country’s official position and on‐going debates on biosimilars, especially on isues
related to substitutability and interchangeability 2. Identification of national P&R policy papers and legislation on biosimilars 3. Specific pricing and reimbursement procedures 4. Plans for early identification of biosimilar launches 5. Existing or on‐going studies to forecast the market evolution of biological drugs and the
impact of biosimilars. 6. Specific intentions/initiatives/pilot experiments in MS to stimulate/promote the uptake of
biosimilars (e.g. through doctors)
20
Spain
Spain supports the early entry of biosimilars, however, automatic substitution in community pharmacies is not allowed. This problem is not particularly relevant because these medicines are classified in Spain as HOM (hospital only medicine), which implies that they can only be dispensed to out‐patients attended at hospitals. Concerning the interface management between the in‐ and out‐ patient, the trend is for a patient who has received a specific biopharmaceutical product during the in‐patient phase to continue to receive the same biosimilar during the out‐patient phase.
Pharmacotherapeutic Committees (PTC) decide which biologicals are included in the hospital pharmaceutical formulary; in general, biosimilars are welcome. The acquisition is made through tendering, direct purchase, etc. In case of a lack of supply, the PTC would evaluate the product’s substitution by another one.
Conventional generics are priced 40 percent below the reference original medicine price. Biosimilars are priced 30 percent below the reference biological medicine price, as agreed with the Interministerial Commission for Pricing. A Ministerial Order will now set the price of biosimilars 30% below the price of the reference biological medicine, according to article 93.7 of the Act 29/2006, which guarantees the rational use of medicines (Medicines Act).
There are no existing or ongoing studies to forecast the impact of biosimilars nor specific initiatives or pilot experiments to stimulate the uptake of biosimilars.
United Kingdom There is no official position or specific policy paper on biosimilars. In the UK, substitution is not allowed. The pharmacist is obliged to supply the product specified on the prescription. The professional standards and guidance for the sale and supply of medicines, which supplements and supports the Society’s Code of Ethics, currently states that “except in an emergency, a specifically named product is not substituted with any other product, without the approval of the patient or career, and the prescriber, a hospital drug and therapeutics committee, or other similarly agreed local protocol.” In February 2008, the MHRA issued a recommendation stating that in order to ensure that automatic substitution of a biosimilar product does not occur when the medicine is dispensed by the pharmacist, and it is considered good practice to prescribe by brand name.
21
There are no special arrangements for pricing and reimbursement of biosimilars. As for other brand name medicines, they fall under the PPRS regulation. Regarding reimbursement, if the product is licensed and the price approved, reimbursement is at 100%, as for non‐biosimilars unless a product appears on a small negative list. No specific planning for early identification of biosimilars, but horizon scanning is carried out. No studies available on the impact of biosimilars and no initiative to promote the uptake of biosimilars UK’s National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has assessed seven different somatropin products, including biosimilar Omnitrope®. This was the first time that a biosimilar medicine was assessed by NICE. NICE declared that there are “no differences in clinical effectiveness”.
Other countries Information from other sources provides partial insights into the situation in other EU countries: GERMANY Baumann (2009) reported that in Germany there is no substitution by pharmacists. Social health insurance obtains a 10% rebate for drugs out of the same manufacturing process. Finally, prescription quotas have been set as recommendations by doctors and sickness funds to the regional boards. In the case of EPO, the range of target quotas in terms of prescriptions vary across regions: Berlin: 40 %; Hamburg: 20 %; Nordrhein: 30 %; Rheinland Pfalz: 25 %; Saarland: 30 %; Hessen: 30%13. Senior (2009) suggests some reasons why biosimilars have been highly successful in Germany: “That’s because Germany is where pricing pressure, by and large, is the greatest. The country’s Federal Healthcare Committee (Gemeinsamer Budesausschuss der Selbstverwaltung), which decides which products and services are reimbursed, has embraced biosimilars whole‐heartedly. And individual health insurance funds (Krankenkassen), of which there are about 250 across the country, have a strong influence on local prescribing and dispensing decisions, in particular thanks to a two‐year old law allowing manufacturers as well as hospitals and providers to negotiate rebates directly with them. Thus they have, for instance, imposed the same reference price across all growth hormone products, including biosimilars. Some regions must even meet certain pre‐defined quotas of biosimilar products.”
13 Communication by EGA
22
HUNGARY In Hungary (Kavács, 2009) a system of bids for biosimilar products has been started. Bids are submitted twice a year and winners gain preferred provider status during the next 6 months. New patients can only be treated with the lowest‐priced product or with products whose price can be no more than 5% higher than the cheaper product. However, patients already on therapy are allowed to be kept under current treatment because of safety concerns. This process is currently on hold.14 NORWAY Biosimilar filgrastim was placed on the substitution list in Norway when the Norwegian Medicines Agency (NOMA) announced on 16 June 2010 the introduction of general substitution of filgrastim products (namely Neupogen, Tevagrastim, Ratiograstim) but Amgen, received a preliminary injunction in early‐July (valid until end‐September).
4. Analysis of biosimilars in the EU markets
4.1 Methodology and data Tables 2 and 3 show the status of biosimilar Marketing Authorization Aplications (MAA) as of October 2010 and the corresponding approval dates and reference products by the EC.
14 Communication by EGA
23
Table 3. Biosimilars in the EU: reference products and approval dates.
Biosimilar INN* Reference product Approval date
Omnitrope® (Sandoz) Somatropin Genotropin® (Pfizer) 12 April 2006 (launched in May 2007)
Valtropin® (Biopartners) Somatropin Humatrope® (Eli Lilly) 24 April 2006
Binocrit® (Sandoz) Epoetin alpha
Eprex/Erypo® (Janssen‐Cilag)
28 August 2007 (launched in July 2008)
Epoetin alpha Hexal (Hexal)
Epoetin alpha
Eprex/Erypo® (Janssen‐Cilag)
28 August 2007
Abseamed® (Medice) Epoetin alpha
Eprex/Erypo® (Janssen‐Cilag)
28 August 2007
Retacrit® (Hospira) Epoetin zeta Eprex/Erypo® (Janssen‐Cilag)
18 December 2007
Silapo® (Stada) Epoetin zeta Eprex/Erypo® (Janssen‐Cilag)
18 December 2007
Ratiogastrim® (Ratiopharm)
Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 15 September 2008
Biograstim ® (CTArzneimittel)
Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 15 September 2008
Tevagrastim® (Teva) Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 15 September 2008
Filgrastim (Sandoz) Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 13 February 2009
Filgrastim Hexal Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 06 February 2009
Zarzio® (Sandoz) Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 06 February 2009
Nivestim® (Hospira) Filgrastim Neupogen® (Amgen) 08 June 2010
Source: Kox, S (EGA) “Biogenerics and Legislative Issues” (Presentation for GPhA’s 2008 Annual Policy Conference – September 2008);*INN for International Nonpropietary Name. Updating by the authors
In order to describe the evolution of biosimilars and their associated reference products in the EU we used the IMS Health MIDAS database. MIDAS provides information on launch dates, prices per standard unit and sales by standard units and by monetary values of pharmaceutical products of a large set of countries worldwide. The database contains information on 24 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Rumania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. For 20 countries the information in the database covers the hospital and the retail (pharmacy) markets. The remaining 4 countries (Estonia, Greece, Portugal and Slovakia) only have information on the retail market. Some countries did not have data on some of the studied products in one or more years, either because the product has not been launched in the country or because the volume of sales is very small and is not reported by the sample of centres nourishing the MIDAS database.
24
The analysis includes all biosimilars authorised by the EC up to 2009 and their respective reference products. Three biological products have been reference products for at least one biosimilar authorised by the EC: somatropin, epoetin alfa, and filgrastim. Values extracted from the database were: launch date of the studied products, their prices and sales volumes between 2007 and 2009 (in both units and euros). Prices and sold volume figures are recorded by quarters (3 months) in the database and were aggregated to annual figures for this analysis. Price and volume of sales aggregates were calculated through the mean and the sum of the quarter values respectively. It must be noted that the accuracy of the MIDAS data varies across the countries covered in this report and particularly in relation to the hospital market. Moreover, prices are likely to be list prices, which in the case of the in‐patient market might be substantially higher than the actual transaction prices, due to the usual discounts offered by companies to hospitals vary substantially. As several of the products have a very large proportion of their sales in the hospital segment, the data should be handled carefully and not accepted at face value, as they are likely to overstate prices and, as a consequence, expenditure estimates. Three main analyses were conducted for each product, country and year:
1. Date of approval of reference products and biosimilars The objective of this analysis was to assess the differences in availability across countries and to estimate the periods of exclusivity of the reference products in each country.
2. Inter‐country comparison of the prices of reference products and of
biosimilars. The objective was to assess price differences between reference products and biosimilars. In order to aggregate the prices of all presentations for each product, prices were expressed as price per Defined Daily Dose (DDD), computed as a simple average of all the presentations (pack) by calculating the price per DDD. Each pack price per DDD was calculated through the formula:
Price per DDD = (Doses of the pack/DDD of the product)*price of the product
The product DDD and the doses associated to each pack were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO). Once the product’s price per DDD of the reference products and the respective biosimilars were obtained, the differences were computed as the percentage in relation to the reference product’s price (relative discount). If more than one biosimilar existed in a country for one reference product, all the biosimilars’ prices were pooled with the same weight. This simplifying assumption was considered acceptable
25
as the variance among the prices of biosimilars in each country was relatively small. The relative discount biosimilar‐reference product of all reference products for all countries was also calculated. The general mean discount each products was obtained weighting each country discount by the quantity of reference products’ units sold. Due to the lack of certain information in the database, some product prices did not appear, even when sales were reported (an issue that needs to be kept in mind at this step of the analysis).
3. Market size
The purpose of this analysis was to provide an estimate of size and composition of the markets in terms of monetary values and DDDs. Sales in DDDs were obtained through the division of the value of the market sales in euros by the average price (euros) per DDD of each product in each country.
4.2. Results 4.2.1. Launch dates and competition‐free periods of biological reference products. Out of 18 submissions for marketing authorisation 14 were authorised, 3 were withdrawn and one received a negative opinion. The number of approved submissions and submissions made by product are: Somatropin: 2/2, interferon alfa: 0/1, epoetin alfa: 3/3, epoetin zeta: 2/215, human insulin 0/3 and filgrastim: 7/7.
Table 4 shows the dates of launches of biosimilars as well as their corresponding reference products (originator). The first biosimilar launch in the EU (Omnitrope/Somatropin) occurred in Germany in 200616. The launching profile of these products in the five larger EU markets (Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain) for the period 2006‐2009 shows the following traits. The three reference products (originators) of the biosimilars were launched in five major EU countries in the period between 1988 and 2001 (Table 4). It should be noted that substantial differences can be found in the launch dates of some of the
15 Binocrit (epoetin alfa) and Retacrit (epoetin zeta) are both biosimilar products, that is, new biological products that have been developed to be similar to existing or ‘reference’ biological products – in this instance both are similar to Eprex (epoetin alfa). http://www.mims.co.uk/more/NewDrugs/article/892074/Binocrit‐‐‐Retacrit/?DCMP=ILC‐SEARCH 16 Sierakoviak and Syed (2009. p.22) claim that Sweden was the first country in the world to grant market approval to a biosimilar medicine in 2007 (Omnitrope, Sandoz).
26
biologic originators in certain countries. For instance, somatropin was launched in France in 1997, nine years later than in the UK and in Germany (1988). Epoetin alfa was launched in France and Germany, 10 and 11 years, respectively, after its launch in the UK and Spain (1990) and filgrastim was launched in Germany 10 years later than in the UK and Spain.
27
Table 4. Launch dates of biosimilars and of their reference products
Reference product launch date (LD) Biosimilar launch
date
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 97 98 0 1 4 5 6 7 8 9
AUS
G‐E
N O‐B
R
BEL G N O
BUL* E G R
DEN G
N‐E
O R
FIN G
N‐E
O B R
FRA N G E O B R
GER G E N O B R
GRE E G B R
HUN E G N B R
IRE G N E R
ITA G N E O
B‐R
LAT* N
O‐R
LIT* N R
NETH E G N O B R
NOR G E N R
POL E N G O B
POR E G
ROM* N O
B‐R
SLOVA
G‐E
N R
SLOVE* E N
O‐B‐R
SPA E N G O
B‐R
SWE G E N O B R
SWI
G‐E
N B‐R
UK G E N O
B‐R
GO:Genotropin/Genotonorm‐Omnitrope;EB:Eprex/ErypoBinocrit/Silapo/Abseamed/Retacrit; NR:Neupogen‐Ratiogastrim/Tevagastrim *unknown LD:Lithuania(genotropin, binocrit,eprex), Romania and Latvia (eprex,genotropin),Slovenia (genotropin),Bulgaria (neupogen) Source: Own elaboration based on IMS data
In contrast with the dispersion of launch times for the originators (1988‐2001), the launch of the (first) biosimilar of each product in the five major markets is concentrated in the three‐year period 2007‐2009.
28
Table 5 shows the time of total exclusivity enjoyed by the originators in the selected countries. The average total exclusivity is 14.7 years. This figure is highest for UK and Spain and lower for France and Germany. Table 5. Duration of the competition free market position of the reference products (years)
Genotropin Neupogen Eprex All
ITALY 18 16 15 16.3
UK 19 18 17 18
FRANCE 10 17 7 11.3
GERMANY 18 7 6 10.3
SPAIN 15 18 19 17.3
MEAN 16 15.2 12.8 14.7
Source: Own elaboration based on IMS data
Genotropin, the first biologic to face biosimilar competition in the EU, has experienced the largest exclusivity times among the three biologics being considered here. In some countries drugs have experienced exclusivity times as long as 19 years (Genotropin in the UK and Eprex in Spain) and as low as 6 years (Eprex in Germany). Taking into account the patent expiry dates of the originators which already face competition from biosimilars (somatropin, 2003; erythropoietin, 2004; filgrastim, 2006) and the dates when the first biosimilar was marketed in the five major EU markets, it can be concluded that biosimilar competition started between two and four years after patent expiry (somatropin, 3‐4 years; erythropoietin, 3‐4 years; filgrastim, 2‐3 years). As the patent of many other biologicals has expired and no biosimilar has yet been marketed – in some cases, they might never be marketed for lack of expected profitability ‐ it can be concluded that the previous figures represent a conservative figure of the average delay from patent expiry to first competitor entry.
4.2.2. The Evolution of the European Biosimilars Market Table 6 summarises the evolution of the biosimilars market in Europe. Sales have gone up rapidly from 3.3 million Euros in 2007 to 65.5 million in 2009, while the market for the medicines reviewed here was practically stable under 1 billion € and sales of the respective reference products fell slightly. These data suggest that some changes in prescribing practice by physicians are taking place and biosimilars increase their market share from 0.34 per cent in 2007 to 6.64% in 2009.
29
Table 6. The global biosimilars market in Europe (in thousands €)
Year Originators
(ref. products) Biosimilars Total
% Biosimilars
2007 973.538 3.294 976.832 0.34
2008 949.091 18.023 967.114 1.86
2009 921.198 65.506 986.705 6.64 Source: Own elaboration based on IMS data
Large differences, however, exist in biosimilar penetration across countries, Germany being one example of a country where biosimilars have attained a larger penetration (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Sales of originators and biosimilars in German markets.
Germany
0
10.000.000
20.000.000
30.000.000
40.000.000
50.000.000
60.000.000
70.000.000
80.000.000
90.000.000
Gen
otro
pin
Om
nitr
ope
Gen
otro
pin
Om
nitr
ope
Gen
otro
pin
Om
nitr
ope
Bra
nd
Bio
sim
ilar*
Bra
nd
Bio
sim
ilar*
Bra
nd
Bio
sim
ilar*
Neu
poge
n
Bio
sim
ilar*
*
Neu
poge
n
Bio
sim
ilar*
*
Neu
poge
n
Bio
sim
ilar*
*
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009
Somatropin Epoetin Filgrastin
*Abseamed, Binocrit, Epoetin alfa Hexal, Retacrit and Silap; **Ratiograstim, Filgrastim Hexal and biograstim
In relative terms, the market of biosimilars is quite small. The sales of biologicals medicines with biosimilars (Somatropin, Epoietin and Filgastrim) in the 23 countries included in the analysis amounted in 2009 to 3.4% of the market value of biological and to 0.7 % of the total pharmaceutical market. The value of the market of biologicals was in the same year 20.6% of the total pharmaceutical market. Table 7 shows the same figures at country level. The highest and lowest market shares of biologics in relation to all pharmaceuticals (column 2) correspond to Denmark (30.2%) and Lithuania (9.3%), respectively. The percentage of the market of biological with biosimilars in relation to all biologicals (column 3) is highest in Italy (1.0%) and lowest in Portugal (less than 0.1%). Finally, the percentage of sales of biological with biosimilars in relation to the total pharmaceutical market is again highest in Italy (5.4%) and lowest in Portugal (0.1%).
30
Table 7. Market value: Total market, biologics and biologics with biosimilars. Absolute values in million € and market share in % . 2009
1.All medicines* 2. Biologics (%2/1)
3. Biologics with Biosimilars (%3/1)**
4. %3/2
Austria 2.996 643,6 (21,5) 24,6 (0,8) 3,8
Belgium 4.320 972,2 (22,5) 34,0 (0,7) 3,5
Bulgaria 670 90,5 (13,5) 1,9 (0,2) 2,1
Czech Rep. 1.936 363,7 (18,8) 6,7 (0,3) 1,8
Denmark 1.939 584,9 (30,2) 10,9 (0,5) 1,9
Estonia 138 18,2 (13,2) 0,5 (0,4) 2,7
Finland 1.877 423,8 (22,6) 5,9 (0,3) 1,4
France 29.143 6.200,4 (21,3) 209,2 (0,7) 3,4
Germany 29.129 6.974,9 (23,9) 169,5 (0,5) 2,4
Greece 4.484 584,5 (13,0) 11,4 (0,2) 2,0
Hungary 2.063 403,6 (19,6) 17,8 (0,8) 4,4
Ireland 1.813 288,7 (15,9) 7,6 (0,4) 2,6
Italy 19.108 3.885,4 (20,3) 208,8 (1,0) 5,4
Latvia 238 34,6 (14,6) 1,2 (0,5) 3,5
Lithuania 403 37,4 (9,3) 1,4 (0,3) 3,7
Luxembourg 170 25,8 (15,2) 0,6 (0,4) 2,3
Netherlands 3.185 603,3 (18,9) 22,4 (0,7) 3,7
Norway 1.397 362,8 (26,0) 7,1 (0,5) 2,0
Portugal 2.554 103,8 (4,1) 0,1 (0,0) 0,1
Romania 2.032 361,0 (17,8) 10,4 (0,5) 2,9
Slovakia 1.070 234,9 (22,0) 6,1 (0,5) 2,6
Slovenia 512 92,8 (18,1) 4,7 (0,9) 5,1
Spain 16.142 3.338,6 (20,7) 155,6 (0,9) 4,7
Sweden 2.903 846,2 (29,1) 26,4 (0,9) 3,1
Switzerland 3.332 599,9 (18,0) 15,2 (0,4) 2,5
UK 14.269 2.446,1 (17,1) 62,9 (0,4) 2,6 Source: Own elaboration based on IMS data
4.2.3. The prices of biosimilars and reference products We analysed the prices of the selected medicines during the period 2007‐2009 in terms of price per DDD (Annex 1, Table A.3). Significant differences appear across countries. The figure for each product is the simple mean of the price per DDD of all the dosages and pack sizes of the product. In the case of Genotropin/Genotonorm (somatropin), the price of the originator in 2009 varies from 14.8 € in Spain to 30.4€ in Germany (ratio: 2.05).
31
The price range is smaller for Eprex (epoietin alfa): from 6.5€ in the UK to 9.5€ in Italy (ratio: 1.46)17. The differences are highest for Neupogen (filgrastim): from 67.5€ in Spain to 149.7€ in Germany (ratio: 2.21) (Figure 2)
Figure 2. Price of Filgastrim and biosimilar in euro. Year 2009.
Price (Euro/DDD)
54,4
120,0
91,4
46,7
68,9
103,9
141,8
149,7
73,6
90,4
72,6
42,9
66,5
92,0
60,1
66,6
109,1
67,5
70,5
126,5
13,8
64,8
123,1
32,2
62,4
88,6
37,0
70,2
31,6
45,4
37,2
19,3
47,6
47,5
63,8
70,3 74,1
104,7
- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Austria
Belguim
Bulgaria
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerand
UK
Biosimilar Filgrastim
Source: Own elaboration based on IMS data
17 It must be noted that the relatively low price in the UK is partly due to the depreciation of the SP in relation to the Euro. In 2006, when epoietin alfa was launched in the UK was 9.2€, higher than Spain and closer to the other countries, e.g. 9.4€ in Italy.
32
Biosimilars also show great inter‐country variations in prices (Figure 3): Omnitrope (somatrapin): Italy 10€, Germany 24.5 €; ratio: 2.45. Binocrit (epoietin alfa)18: UK 5.5€, France 8.3€; ratio: ratio. 1.51. Retracrit (epoietin zeta): UK 6.2€, Italy 7.1€; ratio: 1.14. Ratiogastrim (filgrastim): Spain: 47.6€, Germany 123.1€; ratio: 2.59. Curiously, the ratio between the lowest and the highest price in the sample of countries selected is often higher for biosimilars than for the reference products. Table A1 (Annex 1) also shows that product price discounts experienced substantial variations during the period 2007‐2009. Our analysis is restricted to products already in the national markets in 2007 and which show price variations higher than 3%. Figure 3. Inter‐country price variations (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK)
Source: Own elaboration based on IMS data
The average discount biosimilar‐reference product in all 24 countries shows the following evolution:
Table 8. Mean discount in all countries
18 Not launched in Spain as of December 2009.
2007 2008 2009
Somatropin 25.4% 25.9% 14.1%
Epoetin 32.1% 17.3% 17.0%
Filgrastim ‐‐‐ 10.8% 35.0%
2.45 1 51
1.14 2.59
10,00 €
24,50 €
0,00 €
10,00 €
20,00 €
30,00 €
Italia Germany
Omnitrope (somatrapin):
Omnitrope(somatrapin):
5,50 €
8,30 €
0,00 €
5,00 €
10,00 €
UK Francia
Binocrit (epoietin alfa)
Binocrit (epoietinalfa)
47,60 €
123,10 €
0,00 €
50,00 €
100,00 €
150,00 €
Spain Germany
Ratiogastrim (filgrastim):
Ratiogastrim(filgrastim):
6,20 €
7,10 €
5,50 €
6,00 €
6,50 €
7,00 €
7,50 €
UK Italia
Retracrit (epoietin zeta):
Retracrit (epoietinzeta):
33
No clear pattern emerges so far from this data regarding the magnitude and evolution of the products’ prices and discounts, which can be explained by the limited experience with biosimilars to date. In the case of somatropin, the discount was in the range of 25‐26% between 2007 and 2008 but fell to 14.1% in 2009. The discount for epoetin alpha shows the highest value in 2007, 32.1%, falling to 17.3% in 2008 and to 17.0% in 2009. Finally, filgrastim biosimilars show the lowest discount figure (10.8%) in its first year on the market, 2008, but rising to 30.5% in 2009. These figures vary substantially at the country level. The extreme values range from a 5% discount for filgrastim in the UK to a 53% discount for the same product in Denmark in 2009. In Spain and Italy no product showed price variations beyond 3%, and in France, only one product’s price, Eprex, fell by 23%. In the UK the prices of two reference products show a substantial reduction: Eprex, 23% and Neupogen, 30%. These changes might have been caused by the launch of biosimilars at relatively lower prices. Of course, the reductions are much smaller if prices are expressed in SP (sterling pounds) rather than in euros, due to the said depreciation of the UK currency. Germany is the most dynamic market in terms of price variations over time. These results are slightly lower than the figures provided for the US in the 2008 Congressional Budget Office report, which estimated the price discount of biosimilars in relation to the reference product at about 20‐40%, with peak biosimilar penetration rates varying from 10 to 35 percent over four years. (Grabowksi, 2010).
5. Product pipeline Information on the product pipeline is crucial in order to predict the likely launch and market impact of biosimilars. However, this information is seldom available unless producers disclose it.19 The usual indirect approaches to assessing the product pipeline are based either on information on clinical trials or on patent expiry ates.
d Analyses of clinical trials are occasionally found in the literature (see, for example, Feuerstein, 2008), however, they are usually pieces of information provided by
19 A partially disclosed commercial publication provides data on human growth hormone (hGH) products on the market and in development. Biophoenix (undated)
34
business consultants that focus on products with a higher commercial interest; the methodology and search criteria are seldom described rigorously. Of course, even a successfully‐completed trial is not a guarantee that the product will be authorised nd marketed.
ise expiry dates, ignoring other exclusivity rights, such as test ata protection20.
rge ales in major European markets up to 2024 and the corresponding 2008 sales21.
tim), with 008 market sales of US$ 8 billion, have at least one biosimilar in Europe.
a Patent expiry date is the most frequently used approach to assess the potential entry of biosimilars. Again, patent expiry does not always lead to the entry of biosimilars, which depends on other factors: perceived profitability by generic producers and technical and regulatory obstacles to marketing authorization. Moreover, patent expiry is an elusive concept, as most products are protected by manifold secondary patents – mainly, by patents of varying quality covering the manufacturing and purification processes – in addition to the main patent, which usually covers the active ingredient. Patents are often disputed in courts and outcomes are always accompanied by a degree of uncertainty, often taking years to resolve. Factors such as the existence of trade secrets and specialized know‐how can also limit the access of producers of biosimilars to the knowledge required for their successful development. Most published patent expiry lists are provided with limited information on the criteria used to search and elaborate the information and determine the precd Table 9 shows the patent status expiry dates of a sample of biologicals with las By 2009 11 patents with market sales amounting to US$ 23 billion had expired. Of these 11 products only three of them (somatropin, epoietin alfa and filgras2
20 An apparently comprehensive list of product expiry dates is contained in a review by Belle (undated) which covers the period 1998‐2014 21 Visiongain, 2009.
35
Table 9. Expected Key‐Patent Expiry Dates for Leading Biologic Drugs, 2009‐2010
Estimated patent expiry US, major Eur. market
Drug Drug Type 2008 Sales ($bn)
Expired Expired Prevnar/Prevenar (pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, Wyeth)
Vaccine 2.72
Expired Expired Actrapid/Insulatard/Mixtard/Novolin (human insulin, Novo Nordisk)
Insulin 2.33
Expired Expired Avonex (interferon beta‐1a, Biogen Idec) Interferon 2.20
Expired Expired Rebif (interferon beta‐1a, Merck KGaA) Interferon 1.94
Expired Expired NeoRecormon/Epogin (epoetin beta, Roche) Erythropoietin 1.68
Expired Expired Betaferon/Betaseron (interferon beta‐1b, Bayer)
Interferon 1.67
Expired Expired Pegasys (peginterferon alfa‐2a, Roche) Interferon 1.52
Expired Expired Genotropin/Nutropin (somatropin, Pfizer/Genentech/Roche/Ipsen)
Growth hormone
1.34
Expired Expired Humulin (human insulin, Eli Lilly) Insulin 1.06
Declared unenforceable
2011 Lovenox (enoxaparin, Sanofi‐Aventis) Heparin product
4.00
2009 2010 Enbrel (etanercept, Wyeth/Amgen) AIFP 6.23
2010 2010 Aranesp/Nespo (darbepoetin alfa, Amgen/Kyowa Hakko Kirin)
Erythropoietin 3.58
2010 2014 Lantus (insulin glargine, Sanofi‐Aventis) Insulin 3.58
2012 Expired Epogen/Procrit/Eprex/Erypo/Espo (epoetin alfa, Amgen/Johnson & Johnson/Kyowa Hakko Kirin)
Erythropoietin 5.07
2013 Expired Neupogen/Gran (filgrastim, Amgen/Kyowa Hakko Kirin)
CSL and IL‐2 drug
1.48
2013 2010 Humalog and Humalog Mix (insulin lispro, Eli Lilly)
Insulin 1.74
2014 2014 Remicade (infliximab, Johnson & Johnson/Schering‐Plough/ Mitsubishi Tanabe)
Monoclonal antibody
6.21
2014 2014 Herceptin (trastuzumab, Genentech/Roche) Monoclonal antibody
4.72
2014 2014 NovoRapid/NovoLog and NovoMix/NovoLog Mix (insulin aspart, Novo Nordisk)
Insulin 2.62
2015 2013 MabThera/Rituxan (rituximab, Genentech/Biogen Idec/Roche)
Monoclonal antibody
5.49
2015 2015 Neulasta (pegfilgrastim, Amgen/Kyowa Hakko Kirin)
CSL and IL‐2 drug
3.45
2015 2015 Gardasil (human papillomavirus vaccine, Merck & Co./ Sanofi‐Aventis/CSL)
Vaccine 2.47
2015 2015 Synagis (palivizumab, AstraZeneca) Monoclonal antibody
1.54
2015 2016 Erbitux (cetuximab, Eli Lilly/Bristol‐Myers Squibb/Merck KGaA)
Monoclonal antibody
1.57
2017 2018 Humira (adalimumab, Abbott) Monoclonal antibody
4.53
2017 2018 Lucentis (ranibizumab, Genentech/Roche/Novartis)
Monoclonal antibody
1.78
2017 2019 Avastin (bevacizumab, Genentech/Roche) Monoclonal antibody
4.82
Source: Visiongain, Biosimilars and Follow On Biologics: The Global Outlook, 2009‐2024. 2009
36
By 2020 the number of biologicals whose patent is due to expire is expected to rise to 27, with market sales of US$ 81 billion in 2008 (Table 10).
Table 10. Global market value (2008) of leading biologic drugs with estimated patent
expiration in the EU between 2009‐2019
Expiration date # of drugs Sales 2008 US$bn
Expired by 2009 11 23.0
2010 3 11.6
2011 1 4.0
2012 0 0
2013 1 5.5
2014 4 17.1
2015 3 7.5
2016 1 1.6
2017 0 0
2018 2 6.3
2019 1 4.8
TOTAL 27 81.3 Source: Own elaboration based on Visiongain
Table 11 shows the same information by therapeutic class. Monoclonal antibodies represent by far the group with the largest estimated market value in 2008 (30.7%), followed by Insulin (11.3%) and Erythropoietin (10.3%). Table 11. Market value (2008) of leading biologic drugs with patent expiration in the EU
between 2009‐2019, by therapeutic class
Note: Drugs with at least one biosimilar in the EU
Therapeutic class Number of drugs Sales 2008 US$bn
Monoclonal antibodies 8 30.7
Insulin 5 11.3
Erythropoietin 3 (1) 10.3 (5.1)
Interferon 4 7.4
AIFP 1 6.2
Vaccines 2 5.2
CSL and IL‐2 2 (1) 4.9 (1.5)
Heparin 1 4.0
Growth hormone 1 (1) 1.3 (1.3)
TOTAL 27 81.3
Source: Own elaboration based on Visiongain
37
38
Table 12 provides a rough estimate of the potential market for biosimilars at the country level based on information from table 11, but taking into account the specific 2009 country sales of the medicines whose patents are expected to expire. Table 12. Estimated biosimilar market potential: 2009 value of products whose patent is expected to expire between 2009‐2019. In absolute value and as % of biologicals’ market.
Country Million Euros % of biologics*
Austria 333,5 48,0
Belgium 518,8 49,9
Bulgaria 45,4 48,1
Czech Rep. 201,0 53,4
Denmark 323,6 53,5
Estonia 9,4 48,6
Finland 207,9 47,6
France 3.432,5 52,0
Germany 3.200,5 43,5
Greece 279,8 45,9
Hungary 195,2 44,0
Ireland 193,9 64,5
Italy 1.912,6 43,8
Latvia 17,6 47,3
Lithuania 17,3 42,3
Luxembourg 14,7 54,3
Netherlands 365 56,8
Norway 207,3 55,2
Portugal 52,1 50,1
Romania 188,4 49,3
Slovakia 124,2 50,2
Slovenia 49,5 48,3
Spain 1.828,0 50,1
Sweden 462,0 51,5
Switzerland 353,7 56,4
UK 1.351,0 50,2 Source: Own elaboration based on Visiongain and MIDAS IMS estimations
6. Assessing the expected development of biosimilar markets in the EU and its impact on national drug budgets
6.1. Predictions and forecasts
Biopharmaceuticals represent the fastest growing segment of the pharmaceutical market, a segment whose growth is expected to continue in the near future. A study by Evaluate Pharma, quoted by Sierakoviak and Syed (2009), estimates that biologics had a worldwide CARG (cumulative annual growth rate) of 20% between 1990 and 2006, while small molecule medicines grew only by 11%. The predicted figures for the period 2006‐2015 are 12% and 1% respectively. Figure 4. Market Size
Source: Evaluate Pharma quoted by Sierakoviak and Syed (2009)
Several quantitative estimates exist on the evolution of the biosimilars market and the potential savings implied for pharmaceutical budgets. It is, however, difficult to make comparisons among them because the authors use different methodologies, ranging from rather sophisticated modelling techniques to more simple guesstimates by experts. Only two estimates refer to the whole EU market and two others refer to EU national markets (Poland and Germany). Mansell (2007, p.246) shows how predictions on the market potential of biosimilars have changed significantly over a short period of time: from a first optimistic estimate by Frost & Sullivan in 2005 of US$16.39 billion for the US and the EU in year 2011 to a second estimate, only six months later, of US$ 6bn22; while recent estimates suggest figures in the range of 3 bn. The estimations, however, use similar assumptions on one of the key parameters, namely, the average price discount of biosimilars in relation to the reference products. Most studies use values within the range of 20‐30%, with two exceptions (18% and
22 For 2010
39
35%). The differences in the values assumed for this parameter are due to several reasons: the estimates refer to different countries and periods of time and they rely on different sources of data. Moreover, predicting the future behaviour of market variables requires subjective judgements from the analysts, even if they extrapolate past trends.
6.2. Developing models of the market dynamics of biologicals‐biosimilars
Predictions regarding the future development (size and share) of the biological and biosimilar markets and the availability of products in different national markets can be made by applying different methods of varying rigour: from rather simple extrapolations of past market trends adjusted by opinion and assumptions from experts (policy makers and third party payers) to highly sophisticated simulation modelling based on statistical analyses of available data. Several plausible scenarios can be considered (e.g. implementation of policies aimed at making the market more attractive to industry, improving conditions for the entry of biosimilars and competition, etc...) When evidence is lacking, a simulation modelling exercise aimed at providing a tool for policy makers – in contrast to an essentially academic assignment ‐ should be designed and constructed in consonance with highly involved and relevant policy makers, responsible for defining the final purpose and providing information and acceptable assumptions. The results of the previous section, “Analysis of biosimilars in EU markets,” have shown that the empirical evidence on which predictive models of the EU markets can be built is limited and contradictory; consequently, the results of the modelling exercise will be questionable. Following are a set of reflections on modelling the probable evolution of biosimilars and its impact on pharmaceutical budgets: 1. It is essential to have a clear, well defined question. For instance, what is the likely reduction of the expenditure? 2. Impact analyses can be retrospective (e.g. what savings have been attained by the introduction of biosimilars in the last three years in country X?) or prospective (e.g. what impact would a specific policy aimed at making these drugs more acceptable to physicians and patients have in the next 10 years?). 3. Retrospective analysis compares the past observed evolution of the market with a counterfactual or alternative scenario, for instance, what would have been the past evolution of pharmaceutical expenditure in the absence of biosimilars? Prospective analysis might simply try to assess the evolution of the market under several alternative assumptions (sensitivity analysis) or to assess several future scenarios reflecting
40
alternative policies. The baseline scenario is usually continuity of the present policy, i.e. no policy changes. The impact of policies (or policy combinations) is usually defined as the difference between relevant outcomes (prices, expenditure, consumption, access) in the corresponding scenario and the baseline scenario. 4. Policy makers might be interested in both types of analyses. Retrospective analyses can provide the knowledge required for improving the reliability of prospective scenarios. 5. Information or assumptions on a set of key parameters is needed:
a) The minimum set would be past and present data on the prices and quantities of selected products (originators, biosimilars, and other substitutes) in a given market.
b) Assumptions on the evolution of the price of originators, the discount price of biosimilars and the evolution of the market share of biosimilars over time.
c) Number of innovative biologics and biosimilars entering the market in future years.
d) More complex models might require parameters on demographic and epidemiological data as well as alternative assumption strategies of key actors (regulators, payers, companies) regarding pricing, budget constraints, and price control. 6. Policy impact analyses additionally require evidence or estimates on the effectiveness of policy practices, e.g. how much will a policy based on providing incentives to prescribers to use biosimilars increase market share? 7. Although companies might be interested in market predictions at the aggregate level (EU, worldwide) policy makers are probably more interested in national markets.
6.3. A hypothetical model for illustrative purposes
In order to illustrate how the potential financial or budget impact of biosimilars can be estimated, a relatively simple spreadsheet model has been developed using hypothetical, but plausible, parameters and assumptions.
The first step is to develop a baseline/reference scenario (See Table A2 in Annex1). In this example, Scenario 1 represents the evolution of sales/expenditure on a given biological medicine with no biosimilars on the market, only the originator, in the period 2010‐2012. Consumption is assumed to be 20,000 units in 2010 and to grow at a 5% annual rate. The unit price of the originator is assumed to be 100€ in 2010 and to remain unchanged in the period considered.
41
Scenario 2 reflects the effects of biosimilar entries in 2010. The evolution of consumption in units is assumed to be the same as in Scenario 1. Biosimilars are assumed to have a market share of 5% in 2010, 15% in 2011 and remain stable at 30% thereafter. The price of the originators is assumed to be constant over time, as in Scenario 1, while the price of biosimilars is 90% of the originator price in 2010 and 80% thereafter. The result is a reduction in expenditure of up to 6% in relation to the baseline Scenario 1.
Scenario 3 introduces the likely assumption that the entry of lower‐priced biosimilars might lead to increased consumption. This assumption could be modelled by introducing a new parameter, namely, price‐elasticity of demand for the medicine. In the example developed under this scenario, price‐elasticity is assumed to be – 1, which implies that yearly expenditure is the same as in Scenario 1. Market price is assumed to be the weighted average of the originator and the prices of biosimilars. By definition, under these assumptions no savings result, but consumption increases. This could reflect that the entry of lower priced biosimilars leads to the reimbursement of a new indication for the medicine that was initially not reimbursed because it was not cost‐effective at the original price. If prece‐elasticity is assumed to be smaller than ‐1, for instance, ‐2, utilisation in units and expenditure will experience smaller increases. Figure 5 shows the evolution of consumption and expenditure per year in each scenario. It can be observed that both variables increase annually.
Figure 5. Evolution of consumption and expenditure per year in each scenario
1950000
2000000
2050000
2100000
2150000
2200000
2250000
2300000
2350000
2400000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Expenditure
19000
20000
21000
22000
23000
24000
25000
26000
2010 2011 2012 2013
Year
Q
Scenario 1: No entry of biosimilars
Scenario 2: Biosimilars entering in 2010
Scenario 3: Biosimilars entering in 2010 (No impact on expenditure)
The model could be further refined; for instance, it could consider competition from other medicines in the same therapeutic group. Or the existence of different consumer groups with varying levels of loyalty to the originator and, thus, particular demand curves and price‐elasticities. However, an empirical analysis does not seem to justify a more complex modelling exercise because no clear patterns emerge from the available
42
data on pricing dynamics and market penetration of biosimilars from which to credibly extrapolate the parameters required for making future projections.
Still, decision makers involved in planning and budgeting medicine benefits might find such a model useful for exploring the likely impact of biosimilars ‐ in terms of order of magnitude ‐ based on the limited information available or on expert estimates of the key parameters. 7. Opportunities and effects of promoting the use of biosimilars for the main
stakeholders
7.1. Users, payers and reimbursing authorities
Benefits, opportunities Biosimilars have the potential of lowering prices and, hence, reducing the cost of treatments, improving access and reducing expenditure. Payers and reimbursing authorities have some tools to promote the up‐take of biosimilars (e.g. to support the generation of information to doctors and patients on the effectiveness and safety of biosimilars, to provide incentives to doctors to prescribe biosimilars when this is an effective and safe option) although the scope for biosimilars penetration is relatively more limited than for conventional generics for technical reasons, e.g. the restricted substitutability and interchangeability of biosimilars and reference products. Competition from biosimilars will act as an incentive for originators to innovate in new products and improved versions of existing ones.
Threats and difficulties Price reductions are expected to be much lower than in the case of conventional small molecule medicines. Relative high risk in R&D with high investment is accountable for lower price reductions, but given the high annual costs for originator biologicals, any price reduction will bring considerable savings. There are, however, risks, especially in the form of potential side effects for which they might be blamed and be liable. Nevertheless, long‐term safety concerns are common to all biologicals and that is why biosimilars require, like any other biological, an appropriate pharmacovigilance system and a risk minimization plan before the marketing authorization is granted.
43
7.2. Producers of biosimilars
Benefits, opportunities The market potential is large and growing. Moreover, lower prices for biosimilars may expand the use of existing drugs to include new indications which have been excluded from financing up until now due to considerations regarding cost or cost‐effectiveness. The EU has established a general legal framework that permits the development of biosimilars and enables them to obtain market authorisation. Payers and national authorities have objective interests in encouraging the growth of a market for biosimilars in order to improve access and reduce treatment costs. Monoclonal antibodies represent, by far, the group with the largest estimated market value in 2008 and the one which, in principle, offers the best opportunities and prospects of profit for producers. However, the regulatory requirements of biosimilar monoclonal antibodies by EMA are very high and still under development, which implies a high risk of failure that only large companies might be prepared to take.
Threats and difficulties The investment in R&D to bring a biosimilar to the market is quite high in comparison to small molecule chemical drugs. The EU’s regulatory framework served as a benchmark worldwide; however it is still evolving and discussions continue among interested parties regarding which EMA guidelines will be applicable to specific groups of medicines. Marketing authorisation decisions are made on a case‐by‐case basis by the EC, which consequently implies a high level of uncertainty for producers of biosimilars. Biosimilar development and manufacturing is a new and difficult territory for most generic companies. It is questionable whether more than a group of the largest generic companies (10‐12?) will be able to make the investments and take the risks inherent to the biologicals sector. The Pharmaceutical Sector Inquiry reported that a growing number of originator companies have acquired or are in the process of acquiring generic companies. They do so with a view to diversifying their product and risk portfolio as well as extending their geographical reach. Acquisition is seen by companies as an alternative strategy to launching its own generic products or licensing them out (Pharmaceutical Sector Inquiry, 2009 p. 34‐35). Originator companies have started to and are likely to become increasingly interested in the biosimilar business, because the characteristics of
44
biosimilars make them closer than conventional generics to their traditional innovative products and its business model. According to the EMA, “Competence and knowledge are the most vital assets for an applicant company. Most problems can be addressed through proper comparability exercises and pharmacovigilance plans”23. Companies should “Seek advice from the EMA before submitting MAAs. Such interactions can only be productive if the company willingly and regularly shares its data with the agency, preferably from an early stage.” The business of biosimilars requires a more intensive and sophisticated approach to marketing than standard generics. This requires for many generic companies building a well trained marketing force or partnering with large companies with a well established marketing capacity. There is substantial resistance to substitution and interchangeability from prescribers, pharmacists and patients, which is partially the result of actions by the originator industry. It would seem reasonable to expect that originator companies will continue to make intense efforts to influence regulators at the political and technical/regulatory level in order to limit competition from biosimilars. Biosimilar producers should expect frequent and intensive legal challenges and disputes, especially on IP and substitutability‐related issues, from the originator industry. The risk of side‐effects – particularly related to immunogenicity ‐ and their consequences in terms of liability are substantially higher in the case of biologicals than with conventional medicines. Originators are likely to launch improved, second generation versions of their products and switch patients to the new treatment, making it more difficult for biosimilars to capture a substantial share of the market.
23 Sierakoviak and Syed (2009. p.38)
45
8. Conclusions and recommendations Biological medicines are likely to be one of the main factors in therapeutic advances. They should also be expected to continue pressuring health budgets. The future role of biosimilars in the biotech market looks, in principle, promising since the number of biological products reaching patent expiry in the coming years and the growing cost pressure will certainly create a sound basis for a promising development of biosimilars. Markets in Germany and the UK can serve as positive examples. In these markets biosimilars have already achieved strong market share positions in terms of units sold. The fact that several hurdles still must be overcome implies uncertainties in relation to the degree of penetration, price reductions and, consequently, savings in pharmaceutical budgets. They will certainly not produce reductions in the price of biological medicines when exclusivity periods expire in the same relative amounts that conventional generics do. In relation to price differentials and penetration, they might perform closer to “me‐toos” than to generics, in the sense that they are not likely to intensively compete on prices. However, given the high prices of biologicals, savings can be substantial in absolute terms. The main appeal of biosimilar development for consumers and payers is its capacity to reduce the costs of treatment after patent expiry. This depends on the impact on prices and on the degree of market penetration. Market penetration, in turn, depends on the technical characteristics of the products, on the perceptions of doctors and patients and on the incentives for doctors and patients. Biosimilars seem to encounter less opposition in the case of new treatments, but doctors and patients are more reluctant to shift to a bosimilar or to another originator when a patient is already on treatment. National authorities must strike an acceptable balance between the objectives of protecting patients’ health and providing industry with appropriate incentives for innovation, on the one hand, and the objectives of reducing treatment costs and ensuring sufficient incentives for the generics/biosimilars industry on the other. Generic companies see their future in the biosimilars segment. More than half of the respondents in the Pharmaceutical Sector Inquiry are, or will be in the near future, involved in the biosimilars market. Furthermore, generic companies considered that biosimilar products will achieve fundamental cost savings for national health care systems, since existing biopharmaceutical products are generally high‐priced medicines. However, compared to chemical molecules, the savings expected are less prominent due to the high costs involved in the development of biosimilars. Some respondents stressed the need to develop an adequate regulatory framework; the possibility of using the INN name of the originator (reference) products was specifically mentioned. Smaller‐sized generic companies also raised the question of whether they will be able to tackle the financial burden associated with the R&D of biosimilar products24.
24 Sector Inquiry, p 41 No (104)
46
The convenience of having a clear and precise regulatory framework applies to market authorisation criteria as well as to P&R rules. Similarly, doctors, patients, and payers, should be reassured about the characteristics of biosimilars. The balance should be based on scientific evidence and consensus among experts. Of course, political and economic arguments are likely to play an important role in defining a biosimilars policy ‐ e.g. cost‐effectiveness considerations‐ ‐ but the debate should be transparent so due attention can be paid to the arguments and views of all parties involved. The issue of INN is a key one, because if a biosimilars’ INN differs from that of the reference product then patients and doctors will probably be less inclined to take them as equivalent. Consequently, substitutability and exchangeability ‐ and ultimately, price competition ‐are less likely to occur. While WHO, is the organisation responsible for that issue, national authorities should actively participate in the debate ensuring transparency and the consideration of their national public health interests. “Regarding the INN policy, the EU view is that the INN is a classification system based on molecular structure and mechanism of action. The assignment of INNs to biological drug substances should be based on scientific criteria. It is recognised that ‘biosimilar’ is a regulatory and legal term and is distinct from the INN assignment process for biological drug substances. There should be no specific process applied for the naming of biosimilar substances, rather the policy for the assignement of INNs should be applicable to biologicals in general. The EU recognizes the complexity of biologicals and that variability may exist between innovator biological products with the same INN or even within the same manufacturer. Postranslational effects in the field of biologicals contribute to that complexity and variability.”25 The FDA position is that INN should continue to be granted based on the molecular characteristics and the pharmacological class of the active ingredient” (Mansel 2007, p.261).
Some of the recommendations made to governments that are aimed at promoting faster up‐take of biosimilars suggest promoting/subsidising studies on the long‐term safety of substitution in order to change doctors’ and patients’ perceptions and their present reluctance to use biosimilars (Chauhan et al, 2008). This option seems a good idea, as it will facilitate the entry of medium‐size firms into the market and enhance competition. However, it is highly unlikely that such a strategy will suffice to bring enough competition into the market, which is apt to acquire the form of an oligopoly with product differentiation and, for some products, an actual monopoly. Price control seems, therefore, unavoidable even after patent (market exclusivity) expiry of the originator, especially if the number of suppliers in a given product market is low. The modality of value‐based pricing, with all its limitations, would appear to be the best candidate. Other suggestions point to subsidising fixed costs, for instance, by generating post‐marketing data on safety and reducing regulatory bureaucracy.
25 See WHO Informal Consultation on International Nonproprietary Names (INN) Policy for Biosimilar Products, Geneva, 4-5 September 2006, at page 8, available at http://www.who.int/medicines/services/inn/BiosimilarsINN_Report.pdf
47
An appropriate management of IP rights in order to avoid/limit abuses such as “evergreening” strategies with allegedly new products that do not bring any substantial therapeutic advantage might also be considered.
48
References ACCENTURE. Biosimilars: Emergence of a Third Market Dynamic Between Original Products and Generics. Current situation, strategic options and recommendations. (Accessed April 29, 2010). Available at: http://www.accenture.com/Global/Services/By_Industry/Life‐Sciences/R‐and‐I/Biosimilars‐Generics.htm Baumann S. Biosimilars. Country perspective (Germany). Presentation at the Networking Meeting of the Competent Authorities for Pricing and Reimbursement of Pharmaceuticals. Stockholm, December 15, 2009. Belle D. New Generic Drugs. Off‐Patent by Year. Drugs Off‐Patent Reports. International Journal of Generic Drugs. (Accessed August 15, 2010)Available at: www.locumusa.com Biosimilar, Biogenerics and Follow‐on Biologics. Script Reports 2007 (Accessed May 29, 2010). Available at: http://www.scripintelligence.com/multimedia/archive/00000/BS1342_117a.pdf Biosimilar: How strong a Market? PPR October 2007; pp:286‐287. Biosimilars seminar OHE. June 2009 (Accessed April 30, 2010). Available at: http://oheuk.wordpress.com/tag/biosimilars‐seminar/ Biophoenix. Biosimilars, Biogenerics and Follow‐on Biologics. Informa UK Ltd, September 2007. (Accessed August 15, 2010) Available at: http://www.scripintelligence.com/multimedia/archive/00000/BS1342_117a.pdf Biophoenix. Biosimilars and biobetters: Positioning for a New Market (Sample Selection 4.3.3), undated. (Accessed August 19, 2010) Chauhan D, Towse A, Mestre‐Ferrandiz J. The market for biosimilars: evolution and policy options. OHE Briefing, 2008. (Accessed April 29, 2010). Available at: http://www.ohe.org/page/publications/publication.cfm?catid=29&itemid=623. CRS (Congressional Research Service). Follow‐on biologics: Intellectual Property and Innovation Issues. March 5, p.1. Quoted by Ehrlich and Wright, 2007. DiMasi JA, Grabowskib HG. The Cost of Biopharmaceutical R&D: Is Biotech Different? Manage. Decis. Econ. 28: 469–479 (2007) Ehrlich E and Wright E. Biogenerics: What They Are, Why They Are Important and Their Economic Value to Taxpayers and Consumers. Citizens Against Government Waste, May 2, 2007. EMA, Questions and Answers on generic medicines. 2007: London, UK. p. 1.
49
Engelberg AB, et al. Balancing Innovation, Access and Profits – Market Exclusivity for Biologics. NEJM, 361; 20. November 12, 2009 European Commission, DG Competition, Pharmaceutical Sector Inquiry, July 2009 European Round Up. PPR March 2009 pp 87 Feuerstein A. Biotech Clinical Trials to Watch in 2009. The Street, 2008. (Accessed August 15, 2010) Available at: www.thestreet.com/print/story/10453881.html Grabowski HG, Ridley DB, Schulman KA. Entry and Competition in Generic Biologics. Manage Decis Econ. 2007;28:439‐451. Grabowski, H, Cockburn I, Long G. The market for follow‐on biologics. How will it evolve? Health Affairs. 2006. 25 pp 186‐199. Grabowski H. Follow‐on biologics: data exclusivity and the balance between innovation and competition. Nature Reviews. Drug Discovery. 2008;7:479‐488 Grabowski, H. Data Exclusivity for Biologics: What Is the Appropriate Period of Protection?. AEI. 2009. (Accessed April 29, 2010). Available at: http://www.aei.org/outlook/100068 North American Round‐up. PPR August 2009 pp: 250‐251.
Grabowski, H. Biologics and Data Exclusivity: Balancing Incentives for Innovation and
Cost Savings. In: Mattison N, Mestre‐Ferrandiz J, Towse A (Eds). Biosimilars: How Much
Entry and Price Competition Will Result?. London: OHE, December 2010
Huguet IT. Los biosimilares, un mercado emergente. (Unidad Editorial). 2010 April; Sect.
I+D Medicamentos.
Kavács T. Current issues in the reimbursement of biosimilars. Hungary‐Country Perspective. Presentation at the Networking Meeting of the Competent Authorities for Pricing and Reimbursement of Pharmaceuticals. Stockholm, December 15, 2009. Lewcock A French law disallows 'generic' biosimilars. In‐pharma Technologist, 19‐Feb‐2007. (Accessed September 20, 2010) Available at: http://www.in‐pharmatechnologist.com/Industry‐Drivers/French‐law‐disallows‐generic‐biosimilars. Mansell P. New Dynamics and Challenges in the Generics Market, 2007. SCRIP Reports. Informa UK Ltd, 2007. (Accessed August 15, 2010)
50
Pisani J, Bonduelle, Y. Opportunities and barriers in the biosimilar market: evolution or revolution for generics companies? (Accessed April 30, 2010). Available at: http://www.ableindia.org/biosimilars.pdf Roger, S.D., Biosimilars: how similar or dissimilar are they? Nephrology (Carlton), 2006. 11(4): p. 341‐6 Roger SD. Biosimilars: current status and future directions. Expert. Opin. Biol. Ther. (2010) 10(7) p. 1011‐1018. Senior M, (2009). BioPharma Today. Available at: http://www.biopharmatoday.com/2009/05/european‐biosimilars‐market‐performance‐mirrors‐us‐legislative‐progress‐slow‐but‐steady‐.html Sensabaugh SM. Biological generics: A business case. J Gen Med. 2007;4:186‐199. Shapiro RJ, Singh K, Mukim M. The Potential American Market for Generic Biological Treatments and the Associated Savings. February 2008. [Access: 18 April 2010]. Available at: www.pharma‐mag.com. Sierakoviak A, Syed T. Key decision makers’ characterization and analysis of their attitudes towards the authorization process and market of biosimilars in Sweden and Denmark. Karolinska Institute. LIME (UBE) Master thesis in medical science with a major in medicine. Working Paper version 2.0. Stockholm, 2009. Visiongain. Biosimilars and Follow‐on Biologics. The Global Outlook. Source: Partially disclosed report by, 2009. (Accessed August 15, 2010) Available at: Biosimilars_and_Follow‐On_Biologics_Report__The_Global_Outlook_2009‐2024_‐_SAMPLE[1].pdf
51
ANNEX 1. Tables
Table A.1. Relative price discounts between the reference product and biosimilar prices
Country International generic name
Launch date (LD)brand
LD first biosimilar
dec‐07
dec‐08
dec‐09
Somatropin feb‐88 nov‐07 NA ND ND
Epoetina alfa dec‐88 nov‐07 NA ND 28,0%
Austria
Filgrastim jun‐91 nov‐08 NA NA ND
Somatropin may‐89 mar‐08 NA NA 18,8%
Epoetina alfa jun‐89
Belgium
Filgrastim sept‐92
Somatropin jul‐04
Epoetina Alfa apr‐90
Bulgaria
Filgrastim nov‐09 NA NA 70,4%
Somatropin
Epoetina Alfa
Check Republic
Filgrastim
Somatropin mar‐88 jan‐07 NA ND ND
Epoetina alfa mar‐91
Denmark
Filgrastim jun‐91 dec‐08 NA NA 53,3%
Somatropin oct‐87 sept‐07 NA 5,8% 5,8%
Epoetina alfa mar‐91 nov‐08 NA NA ND
Finland
Filgrastim agos‐91 mar‐09 NA NA 39,9%
Somatropin mar‐97 may‐07 20,0% 20,0% 20,0%
Epoetina alfa febr‐01 jul‐08 NA NA 26,1%
France
Filgrastim febr‐92 mar‐09 NA NA 38,1%
Somatropin jun‐88 may‐06 23,0% 25,2% 19,4%
Epoetina alfa agos‐00 oct‐07 31,6% 28,5% 33,0%
Germany
Filgrastim nov‐01 nov‐08 NA 11,8% 17,8%
Somatropin jan‐01
Epoetina Alfa jan‐90 apr‐08 NA 51,2% 30,8%
Greece
Filgrastim apr‐09 NA NA NA
Somatropin jul‐92
Epoetina Alfa jan‐91 ago‐08 NA NA 33,9%
Hungary
Filgrastim jan‐93 jan‐09 NA NA 49,8%
Somatropin sept‐89
Filgrastim jul‐91 mar‐09 NA NA 21,7%
Ireland Epoetina alfa oct‐95 NA 28,2% ND
Somatropin abr‐89 mar‐07 36,3% 37,0% 39,0%
Epoetina alfa jan‐94 may‐09 NA NA 10,5%
Italy
Filgrastim mar‐93 jun‐09 NA NA 22,3%
Somatropin jan‐09 NA NA 36,5%
Epoetina Alfa
Latvia
Filgrastim sept‐98 febr‐09 NA NA 56,5%
Somatropin, Epoetin Alfa
Lithuania
Filgrastim mar‐01 mar‐09 NA NA ‐5,9%
Netherlands Somatropin jan‐89 abr‐06 NA 20,0% 20,0%
52
Epoetina alfa nov‐88 agos‐07 NA ND ND
Filgrastim mar‐01 sept‐08 NA NA ND
Somatropin nov‐87
Epoetina Alfa nov‐90 NA NA 16,8%
Norway
Filgrastim agos‐92 dic‐08 NA NA ND
Somatropin may‐94 jun‐08 NA 42,1% 57%
Epoetina Alfa jan‐91 ago‐09 *
Poland
Filgrastim oct‐93 oct‐09 NA NA 80,4%
Somatropin nov‐98 Portugal
Epoetina alfa dec‐88
Somatropin jul‐08 NA 52,5% 26%
Epoetina Alfa jul‐09 NA NA 50,4%
Romania
Filgrastim ago‐05 may‐09 NA NA 44,2%
Somatropin jan‐90
Epoetina Alfa
Slovakia
Filgrastim oct‐92 mar‐09 NA NA 38,1%
Somatropin oct‐09 NA NA NA
Epoetina Alfa jan‐91 feb‐09 NA NA 33,6%
Slovenia
Filgrastim jul‐93 nov‐09 NA NA 82,3%
Somatropin octu92 may‐07 18,2% 19,6% 19,6%
Epoetina alfa apr‐90 jan‐09 NA NA 23,5%
Spain
Filgrastim sept‐91 jan‐09 NA NA 29,5%
Somatropin jan‐87 apr‐06 62,3% 62,7% 22,3%
Epoetina Alfa oct‐89 ago‐07 NA 38,5% 2,8%
Sweden
Filgrastim jan‐91 sept‐08 NA NA 32,6%
Somatropin jun‐08
Epoetina Alfa sept‐88 dec‐09 NA NA *
Switzerland
Filgrastim sept‐91 jan‐09 NA NA 49,6%
Somatropin dici‐88 febr‐07 20,8% 20,8% 20,8%
Epoetina Alfa abri‐90 mayo‐08 NA 10,5% 10,5%
UK
Filgrastim abri‐91 octu‐08 NA 8,9% 5,3% NA (no biosimilar to compare); ND (no price information in database) * Error in database leading to incoherent results
53
54
Table A2 . Estimating the financial impact of biosimilars
Scenario 1: No entry of biosimilars Assumptions: Po=100 (no change) Qo=20,000/year, Annual growth Q = 5%
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013
Units 20000 21000 22500 23625
Price 100 100 100 100
Expend 2000000 2100000 2250000 2362500
Scenario 2: Biosimilars entering in 2010 Assumptions: Po=100 (no change) Pbi= 0.9Po (if i=0); Pbi=80 (if i>0); Qo=20,000/year, Annual growth Q = 5%
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013
Units 20000 21000 22500 23625
Share orig 0.95 0.85 0.7 0.7
Share bios 0.05 0.15 0.3 0.3
Units orig 19000 17850 15750 16537,5
Units bios 1000 3150 6750 7087,5
Price orig 100 100 100 100
Price bios 90 80 80 80
Expend 1990000 2037000 2115000 2220750
Savings 10000 63000 135000 141750
Savings in % 0,5 3 6 6
Scenario 3: Biosimilars entering in 2010 Assumptions: Po=100 (no change) Pbi= 0.9Po (if i=0); Pbi=80 (if i>0); Expenditure: the same as in Scenario 1
Year 2010 2011 2012 2013
Share orig 0.95 0.85 0.7 0.7
Share bios 0.05 0.15 0.3 0.3
Price orig 100 100 100 100
Price bios 90 80 80 80
Average price 99.5 97 94 94
Expend 2000000 2100000 2250000 2362500
Units 20101 21649 23936 25133
Incr. units 101 649 1436 1508
% Incr. Units 0.5 3.1 6.4 6.4
Table A3. Sales of originators and biosimilars in European markets: value in €, average price (€ per DDD) and estimated units sold (DDDs)
Year Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cz.Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia
2007 3.193.00 8.431.00 546.70 3.782.16 4.297.20 434.40 1.735.60 46.426.90 63.964.10 ‐ 2.238.20 2.445.17 16.794.20 741.90
2008 3.795.60 8.684.00 916.60 3.393.87 4.981.10 558.60 1.670.30 48.840.10 68.408.20 1.30 1.866.00 2.519.51 16.777.90 644.60 Somatropi
n 2009 3.199.20 9.092.80 731.20 3.491.59 5.322.40 593.70 1.644.30 49.777.70 74.207.40 ‐ 2.139.30 2.561.59 16.848.40 766.70
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.30 ‐ ‐ 918.90 1.480.90 ‐ ‐ ‐ 687.10 ‐
2008 0.80 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 81.10 4.565.80 3.258.40 ‐ ‐ ‐ 2.090.40 ‐ Biosimilar
2009 76.00 562.50 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 221.20 7.810.00 5.010.20 ‐ ‐ ‐ 3.716.20 31.60
2007 17.577.90
21.541.90 920.20 1.209.05 4.837.60 ‐ 151.70 124.829.90 19.327.00 743.30 10.505.50 913.51 161.790.40 515.00
2008 16.771.80
21.296.20 2.160.90 1.044.71 5.080.10 ‐ 134.70 113.310.20 9.672.30 561.50 9.353.40 916.27 173.100.00 502.10 Epoetine alpha
2009 8.644.40 19.484.70 112.10 1.544.04 1.744.30 1.70 103.80 109.585.20 4.414.40 2.885.40 8.703.40 642.33 189.300.20 339.00
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8.10 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2008 205.10 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 27.30 ‐ 3.840.40 227.20 ‐ 4.00 0.60 ‐ Biosimilar
2009 2.186.40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 125.00 3.353.20 4.979.90 7.398.00 364.60 2.03 547.30 ‐
2007 11.763.00
5.098.40 570.10 2.091.04 4.808.10 ‐ 3.543.90 36.669.30 46.962.70 ‐ 5.400.80 4.318.47 15.287.60 697.20
2008 11.598.60
4.667.70 612.70 1.736.20 4.036.80 ‐ 3.785.90 37.914.90 47.849.10 ‐ 6.062.00 4.525.71 6.714.30 618.20 Filgrastim
2009 8.331.40 4.928.80 628.00 1.716.33 3.549.50 ‐ 3.884.50 36.290.50 31.052.70 ‐ 6.194.90 4.440.11 148.30 87.40
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
2008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 283.20 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Sales value in thousands of Euros
Biosimilar
2009 2.171.50 ‐ 0.50 ‐ 317.80 ‐ 1.20 1.717.10 5.276.90 1.184.40 413.30 5.40 192.50 67.00
2007 22.00 17.30 5.70 16.00 23.70 11.20 19.80 18.50 28.20 7.90 18.9 16.00 10.60
2008 22.00 17.60 8.70 16.00 26.00 11.20 19.80 18.50 29.40 3.60 13.70 18.9 16.20 10.60 Somatropi
n 2009 22.00 17.20 5.30 16.00 26.00 11.20 19.80 18.50 30.40 ND 15.60 18.9 16.40 10.60
2007 ND 14.80 21.70 10.20
2008 18.70 14.80 22.00 10.20 Biosimilar
2009 14.00 18.70 14.80 24.50 10.00 6.70
2007 10.80 10.10 7.50 9.4 12.10 6.90 11.40 10.90 6.20 9.00 10.5 9.40 7.20
2008 10.60 9.90 6.10 9.7 12.10 7.40 8.80 9.60 6.40 7.20 10.3 9.50 9.40 Epoetine alpha
2009 10.50 9.90 5.40 10.1 11.90 2.10 5.70 8.80 9.30 7.30 7.40 10.3 9.50 6.20
2007 5.20
2008 7.00 7.10 3.10 7.4 4.30 Biosimilar
2009 7.50 5.90 7.40 6.50 5.00 4.90 7.80
2007 120.10 92.70 88.70 65 69.00 103.90 141.90 136.90 73.60 113.4 90.00 107.60
2008 120.10 91.50 79.70 86.7 69.00 103.90 141.90 146.60 73.60 113.4 90.00 99.10
Price (Euro/DD
D)
Filgrastim
2009 120.00 91.40 46.70 91.9 68.90 103.90 141.80 149.70 73.60 113.4 90.40 72.60
55
2007
2008 129.30 Biosimilar
2009 13.80 32.20 62.40 88.60 123.10 54.40 37.00 88.8 70.20 31.60
Year
Lithuania
Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romani
a Slovaki
a Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerand UK TOTAL
2007 108.40 18.033.10 5.701.40 7.223.60 19.00 1.885.30 79.10 557.20 30.259.10 16.736.30 3.975.10 21.879.10 259.042.06
2008 279.90 17.659.10 5.756.60 3.680.60 30.40 1.778.10 320.10 615.40 39.019.00 15.494.90 4.120.70 16.543.40 265.836.37 Somatropi
n 2009 284.10 17.852.10 5.695.70 3.076.60 41.50 2.220.50 47.60 675.80 43.679.80 13.657.60 4.257.30 24.675.10 283.978.39
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 153.80 22.80 ‐ 22.20 3.286.00
2008 ‐ 0.80 ‐ 2.571.60 ‐ 33.30 ‐ ‐ 404.20 112.20 ‐ 35.50 13.154.10 Biosimilar
2009 ‐ 6.70 ‐ 2.396.80 ‐ 477.60 ‐ 2.90 1.672.80 1.296.80 ‐ 223.40 23.504.70
2007 1.258.60 2.433.80 445.60 35.40 ‐ 5.512.50 6.546.80 2.806.60 78.554.70 7.618.20 4.991.10 9.973.10 484.125.85
2008 1.189.50 2.178.10 338.10 118.40 ‐ 4.479.70 4.740.30 3.055.20 69.536.80 6.860.80 3.623.00 14.788.10 463.895.91 Epoetine alpha
2009 494.50 2.129.90 201.60 217.70 110.20 1.813.80 3.070.10 2.524.30 71.272.80 4.425.30 2.993.50 18.193.30 454.309.64
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8.10
2008 ‐ 0.20 4.40 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 133.80 ‐ ‐ 4.439.00 Biosimilar
2009 ‐ 9.30 5.90 43.80 ‐ 219.40 ‐ 51.30 2.138.20 1.188.20 17.40 174.10 22.802.00
2007 ‐ 2.853.80 1.333.90 17.383.40 ‐ 2.268.80 103.30 1.283.70 37.973.20 5.583.20 8.232.70 20.461.70 230.369.84
2008 362.00 2.674.50 1.385.90 15.790.80 ‐ 3.952.30 111.80 1.215.30 38.048.30 5.824.80 8.326.70 16.070.10 219.358.90 Filgrastim
2009 452.00 2.589.90 1.086.10 16.339.80 ‐ 4.439.00 98.50 1.493.90 35.009.80 5.604.20 7.033.90 11.950.90 182.910.33
2007 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.00
2008 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 146.20 429.40
Sales value in thousands of Euros
Biosimilar
2009 233.30 58.50 153.40 25.30 ‐ 1.255.30 17.70 3.70 2.465.40 265.00 391.90 2.987.80 19.199.50
2007 12.30 28.10 19.70 4.70 22.40 11.70 6.50 18.00 14.80 20.60 28.70 14.90
2008 12.40 28.10 20.20 4.80 16.30 11.60 15.60 17.80 14.80 20.60 30.60 14.90 Somatropi
n 2009 12.70 28.10 19.40 5.90 16.30 13.00 10.10 17.50 14.80 20.00 26.00 14.90
2007 12.10 7.80 11.80
2008 22.50 2.80 5.50 11.90 7.70 11.80 Biosimilar
2009 22.50 2.50 9.60 3.20 11.90 15.50 11.80
2007 7.30 7.00 8.60 1.90 6.90 7.70 8.30 8.50 5.70 11.00 6.30
2008 6.00 7.60 8.50 2.20 7.60 7.30 8.50 8.50 5.50 7.80 6.30 Epoetine alpha
2009 5.70 7.60 8.50 2.40 4.90 7.60 7.40 8.50 5.80 7.80 5.80
2007 9.10
2008 10.30 3.40 Biosimilar
2009 11.80 2.40 4.90 6.50 5.60 1.90 5.20
2007 66.50 91.50 40.00 78.00 99.10 108.90 69.20 58.70 126.50 77.10
2008 36.20 66.50 92.20 49.10 49.90 123.10 109.10 67.50 57.60 126.50 77.10 Filgrastim
2009 42.90 66.50 92.00 60.10 66.60 104.70 109.10 67.50 70.50 126.50 74.10
Price (Euro/DD
D)
Biosimilar2007
56
2008 35.10
2009 45.40 37.20 64.80 19.30 47.60 47.50 63.80 70.30
Table A4. Sales of originators and biosimilars in European markets: value in €. average price (€ per DDD) and estimated units sold (DDDs)
This analysis is only presented for 13 countries in this draft. Results from non euro zone data will be converted into euros. ND (data not found in the database)
Year Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cz.Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia
2007 145.459 488.623 95.589 16.620 181.574 38.719 87.597
2.509.564
2.268.229 282.983 129.634 1.049.6
38 70.118
2008 172.916 493.803 105.557 15.650 191.245 50.044 84.301
2.640.006
2.326.810 360 135.746 133.575 1.035.6
70 60.926
Somatropin
2009 145.738 529.126 137.713 17.005 204.764 53.188 82.991
2.690.688
2.441.032 ND 136.876 135.806 1.027.3
40 72.464
2007 62.090 68.244 67.359
2008 4.345 308.503 148.107
204.938
Biosimilar
2009 40.312 11.850 527.703 204.498
371.617
4.702
2007 1.622.128 2.138.868 122.670 25.618 398.299 21.914
10.949.993
1.773.121 118.997 1.168.381 86.719 17.211.
741 71.591
2008 1.587.633 2.146.184 352.417 15.575 418.602 18.209
12.876.154
1.007.528 87.387 1.304.718 88.948 18.221.
050 53.491
Epoetine alpha
2009 826.880 1.963.597 20.865 22.334 146.792 824 18.223
12.452.862
474.671 395.982 1.176.983 62.355 19.926.
338 54.502
2007 1.541
2008 3.899 543.458 72.466 542 140 Biosimilar
2009 291.886 21.180 453.140 762.232 1.468.174 74.605 ND 70.161
2007 97.942 54.978 6.430 20.855 69.730 34.114 258.416 343.044 73.345 38.083
169.863
6.481
2008 96.573 51.030 7.687 17.380 58.541 36.444 267.194 326.392 82.324 39.911 74.604 6.235 Filgrastim
2009 69.418 53.930 13.434 16.060 51.495 37.393 255.928 207.433 84.129 39.156 1.640 1.204
2007
2008 2.190
Sales in
units (DDDs)
Biosimilar
2009 34 9.864 20 19.391 42.867 21.768 11.183 61 2.742 2.122
57
Year Lithuania Netherlands NORWAY Poland PORTUGAL Romania Slovakia Slovenia SPAIN Sweden Switzerand UK TOTAL
2007 8.826 642.047 289.816 1.550.659 846 160.828 12.140 30.922 2.044.537 812.352 138.334
1.468.398 14.394.548
2008 22.557 628.782 284.787 761.195 1.863 153.580 20.519 34.534 2.636.418 752.121 134.849
1.110.296 13.854.669 Somatropin
2009 22.306 635.653 294.093 523.932 2.536 170.649 4.734 38.714
2.951.336
683.573 163.571
1.656.044
14.686.202
2007
12.711
2.941
1.880
215.225
2008 38 918.671 6.057 33.965 14.584
3.009 1.642.217 Biosimilar
2009 300 948.223 49.616 900 140.571 83.495 18.930 2.402.717
2007 172.617 348.687 51.568 18.350 801.034 845.542 337.484 9.241.726 1.345.845 453.239 1.583.037 50.822.537
2008 199.036 287.132 39.895 53.258 586.221 648.942 361.147 8.180.797 1.257.960 462.586 2.347.315 52.513.326 Epoetine alpha
2009 86.642 280.783 23.792 92.437 373.859 404.855 339.504 8.385.031 767.988 385.840 3.136.777 51.758.423
2007 1.541
2008
39.909 660.414 Biosimilar
2009 3.720 91.130 10.396 328.949 212.236 9.118 33.472 3.830.399
2007 42.936 14.575 435.055 29.080 1.042 11.792 548.746 95.101 65.085 265.392 2.644.040
2008 10.000 40.239 15.029 321.420 79.270 908 11.135 563.678 101.188 65.827 208.432 2.441.570 Filgrastim
2009 10.536 38.967 11.812 272.095 66.642 940 13.687 518.663 79.472 55.607 161.281 2.021.805
2007 0
2008 4.165 6.355
Sales in
units (DDDs)
Biosimilar
2009 5.135 33.781 273 191 51.795 5.579 6.147 42.530 255.483
Results from non euro zone data will be converted into euros. ND (data not found in the database)
58
Tabla A.5. Percentage of biosimilars sales with respect to originals in the EU market
Year AUSTRIA BELGIUM BULGARIA DENMARKESTONIACZ.REP.
FINLAND FRANCE GERMANY GREECE Hungary Ireland ITALY Latvia Lithuania
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 4% 0% 0%
2008 0.02% 0% 0% 0% 4.63% 8.55% 4.55% 0.00% 0% 0% 11.08% 0.00% 0% BS/
Somatropin 2009 2.32% 5.83% 0% 0% 11.86% 13.56% 6.32% 0.00% 0% 0% 18.07% 3.96% 0%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 1.21% 0% 0% 0% 16.85% 0.00% 28.42% 28.81% 0% 0.43% 0.00% 0.00% 0% BS/ Epoetine
alpha 2009 20.19% 0% 0% 0% 54.63% 2.97% 53.01% 71.94% 4.02% 0.32% 0.29% 0.00% 0%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
% Biosimilar Sales/Total (value in thousands of Euros)
BS/Filgrastim
2009 20.68% 0.00% 0.08% 8.22% 0.03% 4.52% 14.53% 100.00% 6.25% 0.12% 56.48% 43.39% 34.04%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 10% 6% 0% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% BS/Somatropin
2009 0% 7% 0% 0% 12% 16% 8% 0% 0% 27% 6% 0%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 18% 0% 35% 45% 0% 0.61% 0% 0% 0% BS/Epoetine
alpha 2009 26.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0% 53.75% 3.51% 61.62% 78.76% 5.96% ND 0.35% 0% 0%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sales in units (DDDs)
BS/Filgrastim
2009 0% 0% 0% 16% 0% 7% 17% 100% 12% 0.16% 63% 64% 33%
59
60
Year NETHERLANDS NORWAY Poland PORTUGAL Rumania Slovakia Slovenia SPAIN Sweden Switzerland UK TOTAL
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2008 0.00% 0.00% 41.13% 0% 1.84% 0.00% 0.00% 1.03% 0.72% 0% 0.21% 4.77% BS/
Somatropin 2009 0.04% 0.00% 43.79% 0% 17.70% 0.00% 0.43% 3.69% 8.67% 0% 0.90% 7.73%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0.01% 1.28% 0.00% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1.91% 0% 0% 0.95% BS/ Epoetine
alpha 2009 0.43% 2.84% 16.75% 0% 10.79% 0% 1.99% 2.91% 21.17% 0.58% 0.95% 4.79%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
% Biosimilar Sales/Total (value in thousands of Euros)
BS/Filgrastim
2009 2.21% 12.38% 0.15% 0% 22.04% 15.23% 0.25% 6.58% 4.52% 5.28% 20.00% 9.58%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%
2008 0% 0% 55% 0% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 0% 11% BS/Somatropin
2009 0% 0% 64% 0% 23% 0% 2% 5% 11% 0% 1% 14%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 1% BS/Epoetine
alpha 2009 0% 0% 3.87% 0% 19.60% 0% 2.97% 3.77% 21.65% 2.31% 1.06% 6.89%
2007 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2008 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%
Sales in units (DDDs)
BS/Filgrastim
2009 0% 0% 0% 0% 34% 23% 1% 9% 7% 10% 21% 11%
Source: Table 3a y 4a
ANNEX 2 .Interviews with P&R Officials of EU Member States In order to obtain information on national policy practices related to biosimilars, a short, open questionnaire was sent to a set of P&R officials of EU Member States. The answers could be provided either in writing of through a telephone conference. Questionnaire:
1. Your country’s official position and ongoing debates on biosimilars, especially
on issues related to substitutability and interchangeability
2. Identification of national P&R policy papers and legislation on biosimilars
3. Specific pricing and reimbursement procedures
4. Plans for early identification of biosimilar launches
5. Existing or ongoing studies to forecast the market evolution of biological drugs
and the impact of biosimilars
6. Specific intentions/initiatives/pilot experiments in MS to stimulate/promote
the uptake of biosimilars (e.g. through doctors)
ITALY
1. Your country’s official position and ongoing debates on biosimilars, especially on issues related to substitutability and interchangeability. The substitutability and interchangeability of generic medicines are authorised by the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA), following an evaluation of bioequivalence results. Interchangeable products are then listed in the Transparency List, which indicates medicines reimbursed by the NHS on the basis of the reference price (RP) system, with details of their RPs. The substitutability and interchangeability of biosimilars and biological reference products at the pharmacy level are not allowed in the Italian pharmaceutical system due to the diversity of biosimilars and biological pharmaceuticals. The official position of AIFA, according to the EMA opinion, is that biological medicines and biosimilars can not be considered in the same way as other generic medicines, excluding the therapeutic substitutability. Consequently, in Italy the following issues are applied: § Biosimilars available in Italy are not listed in the Transparencies List; § The choice to treat a patient with a biological medicine or a biosimilar is a clinical decision to be made by physicians.
61
Recently, a proposed law (A.S.1875), still under consideration by the Italian legislature, aimed to emphasize the definitions of unsubstitutability and non‐interchangeability for biosimilars at the pharmacy level, and to exclude the interchangeability of biosimilars from public tenders. AIFA’s opinion is that the effect of the proposed law might constitute a barrier to the entry of biosimilars in the market. 2. Identification of national P&R policy papers and legislation on biosimilars. In Italy, AIFA is responsible for all matters regarding the chain of pharmaceuticals for human use, including: market authorisation, pharmacovigilance, and the pricing and reimbursement of all pharmaceuticals. The authorization procedure for marketing pharmaceuticals is regulated by Legislative Decree n.219/2006, in accordance with procedures in the European Directive 2004/27/EC. Legislative Decree n.219/2006 also introduced a definition for “biosimilar or bioequivalent” and indicated the documentation necessary to obtain approval for a biosimiliar. In order to obtain the marketing authorisation of a biosimilar product, the applicant should submit to AIFA a complete and exhaustive dossier containing pre‐clinical tests and clinical trial results. In contrast to other generic medicines it is sufficient to submit the results of bioequivalence studies. In Italy prices of pharmaceuticals reimbursed by the National Health Service (NHS) are regulated at the central level and remain the same across the whole country. The pricing and reimbursement procedure is regulated by the Italian CIPE Deliberation, 1st February 2001. 3. Specific pricing and reimbursement procedures Pricing and reimbursement procedures for biosimilars are the same as for other medicines. The price‐setting system is based on a negotiation procedure applicable to all reimbursable pharmaceuticals. The negotiation procedure with manufacturers is managed by AIFA, assisted by the Committee for Pricing and Reimbursement (Comitato Prezzi e Rimborso, CPR). Pricing and reimbursement decisions are strictly interlinked because they are the responsibility of the same body and also because both decisions are made within the same procedure. The AIFA Technical Scientific Committee (Commissione Tecnico‐Scientifica, CTS) expresses an opinion on reimbursement classification and the process of negotiation takes place only after this reimbursement evaluation. The negotiation procedure is conducted following criteria based on: product therapeutic value; pharmacovigilance data; price in other European Union (EU) Member States; price of similar products within the same pharmacotherapeutic group; internal market forecasts number of potential patients; and therapeutic innovation. The prices are negotiated at ex‐factory level and also define the pharmacy retail prices (PRP). Prices negotiated represent, in the case of hospitals, the maximum sale price for the National Health Service (NHS), but pharmaceutical companies must grant a rebate/discount to hospitals.
62
For generic and biosimilar medicines, the pricing negotiation procedure should guarantee at least a 20% price reduction respect to the price of the originator reference medicine. Nevertheless, in order to encourage the access of biosimilars to the market, the initial price reductions applied were more flexible, ranging from 22% to 15% of the initial price. Currently, a progressive price reduction is being applied: starting from an initial price reduction, a further price reduction is set once that a pre‐defined volume threshold is achieved. Number of approved products and number of commercialised products are listed in table 1. Table 2 shows price reductions negotiated for the 6 products approved (See tables 1 and 2 below). 4. Plans for early identification of biosimilar launches. Since AIFA is responsible for both marketing authorisation and P&R procedures, data and information on biosimilars are constantly available and updated. 5. Existing or ongoing studies to forecast the market evolution of biological drugs and the impact of biosimilars. AIFA constantly performs analysis on the overall pharmaceutical area, including biosimilars, in order to provide pharmaceutical expenditure governance in the framework of economic and financial viability Currently, biosimilars commercialised in Italy show a low penetration both in the total market (0.01%) and in the biological market (0.3%). 6. Specific intentions/initiatives/pilot experiments in MS to stimulate/promote the uptake of biosimilars (e.g. through doctors). A specific initiative used during the negotiation procedure of biosimilars is the progressive price reduction. Starting from an initial price reduction, a further price reduction is set once a pre‐defined volume threshold is achieved.
63
Table q2. Price reduction for biosimilars available in Italy
ATC INN BRAND COMPANY PRICE
REDUCTION
H01AC01 Somatropi
na Omnitrope® Sandoz 20%
Binocrit® Sandoz Epoetina
alfa Abseamed® Medice (Fidia) B03XA01
Epoetina zeta
Retacrit® Hospira
15%
Ratiograstim® Ratiopharm L03AA02 Filgrastim
Zarzio® Sandoz22%
Table q1. Biosimilars available in Italy
ATC INN BRAND COMPANY REFERENCE PRODUCT
ITALIAN APPROVAL
ITALIAN COMMER.
H01AC01 Somatropin
a Omnitrope® Sandoz Genetropin® 29/10/2007 10/04/2008
Binocrit® Sandoz 28/02/2008 24/10/2008 Epoetina
alfa Abseamed® Medice(Fidi
a)
Eprex® (JnJ) Erypro® 3/11/2008 6/04/2009 B03XA01
Epoetina zeta
Retacrit® Hospira Eprex® (JnJ)Erypro®
22/12/2008 9/02/2009
Ratiograstim®
Ratiopharm 16/03/2009 23/04/2009
L03AA02 Filgrastim
Zarzio® Sandoz
Neupogen®
(Amgen)
24/11/2009 Not
commercialised
64
SPAIN
1) Your country’s official position and on‐going debates on biosimilars, especially
on isues related to substitutability and interchangeability
Obviously we support their early entry into the Spanish market since this provides us
with a reduction of the expenditure on biologicals and a greater affordability as well.
Among the main problems, on the one hand, the therapeutic exchange is not possible
(there is not interchangeability) in the community pharmacies although this problem
does not seem relevant in reality because these medicines are classified in Spain as
HOM (hospital only medicine) so they only can be dispensed for out‐patients in
hospitals. Concerning the interface management between the in‐ and out‐ patient,
the trend is that one patient who has receive a selected biosimilar in the in‐patient
phase, will continue with the same biosimilar in the out‐patient phase. For supplying
hospitals, are the Pharmacotherapeutic Committees (or at community level) who
decide what biological is included in the Hospital pharmaceutical formulary; in
general, biosimilars are welcome. The acquisition is made through tendering, direct
purchase, etc. In case of a lack of supply, the PTC would evaluate the substitution by
another one.
On the other hand and maybe representing a bigger problem, because the patent of
use can protect certain therapeutic indication of the reference biological medicine, a
biosimilar may not include one or more therapeutic indications, in other words, it
may not include the whole original therapeutic indications which may represent an
inconvenient or legal problem for biosimilars in tenders, for instance.
2) Identification of national P&R policy papers and legislation on biosimilars
A Ministerial Order is on‐going to below the the price of the reference biological
medicine a 30 percent according to the article 93.6 of the Act 29/2006, for
Guarantees and the Rational Use of Medicines (Medicines Act).
3) Specific pricing and reimbursement procedures
Priority. As former generics, Biosimilars are priced a 30 percent below the reference
biological medicine price as the Interministerial Commission for Pricing agreed. Now,
generics are priced a 40 percent below the reference original medicine price.
4) Plans for early identification of biosimilar launches
It is not easy but one way is to look into the date of the patent expiry for the original
product and seek whether the biosimilar has already been authorised by EMA. Then,
the MAH in Spain has a three year period to put it available in the market
65
5) Existing or ongoing studies to forecast the market evolution of biological drugs
and the impact of biosimilars
No existing or ongoing studies.
6) Specific intentions/initiatives/pilot experiments in MS to stimulate/promote the
uptake of biosimilars (e.g. through doctors)
No existing initiatives.
UNITED KINGDOM Informants: David Kullman (DH), Joe Smith (DH), Marie‐Christine Bielsky (MHRA), Danny Palnoch (DH) 15 and 24 November 2010 1. Your country’s official position and on‐going debates on biosimilars, especially on isues related to substitutability and interchangeability There is no official position or specific arrangement for biosimilars. In the UK, substitution is not allowed (in primary care) (see link to the Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain: http: http://www.rpsgb.org.uk/protectingthepublic/ethics/). The pharmacist is obliged to supply the product specified on the prescription. The Medicines Act 1968, S64, states that “no person shall, to the prejudice of the purchaser, sell any medicinal product which is not of the nature or quality demanded by the purchaser.” The Professional standards and guidance for the sale and supply of medicines, which supplements and supports the Society’s Code of Ethics, currently states that “except in an emergency, a specifically named product is not substituted with any other product, without the approval of the patient or carer, and the prescriber, a hospital drug and therapeutics committee, or other similarly agreed local protocol.” In February 2008, the MHRA issued the following recommendation: "When prescribing biological products, it is good practice to use the brand name. This will ensure that automatic substitution of a biosimilar product does not occur when the medicine is dispensed by the pharmacist". (http://www.mhra.gov.uk/Publications/Safetyguidance/DrugSafetyUpdate/CON2033917 ) 2. Identification of national P&R policy papers and legislation on biosimilars There is no specific policy paper on biosimilars.
66
67
3. Specific pricing and reimbursement procedures There are no special arrangements for pricing and reimbursement of biosimilars. As for other brand name medicines, they fall under the PPRS regulation. If it is granted a new active substance marketing authorisation, the company has freedom to set the launch price; if it is an already existing substance they have to negotiate the price. Regarding reimbursement, if the product is licensed and the price approved, reimbursement is at 100%, as for non‐biosimilars unless a product appears on a small negative list. 4. Plans for early identification of biosimilar launches No specific planning, but horizon scanning as for other medicines. 5. Existing or on‐going studies to forecast the market evolution of biological drugs and the impact of biosimilars Not aware of any studies 6. Specific intentions/initiatives/pilot experiments in MS to stimulate/promote the uptake of biosimilars (e.g. through doctors. Not aware of any initiative.
ANNEX 3. LITERATURE REVIEW
THE IMPACT OF BIOSIMILAR DRUG ENTRIES ON THE EU MARKET.
LITERATURE REVIEW
1. Objective of the literature review
The aim of this review is to analyse the development of the EU biosimilars market and, in particular, its limitations and entry barriers.
2. Method
A structured review of the literature was conducted to respond to the study’s objective. First, a search strategy was designed using Thesaurus and free terms in the following data bases: MedLine, Embase, Web of Science and Econlit (table 1). Then the search was completed by using free terms in Google Scholar, OECD Publication, WHO Website, World Bank Document and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). In addition, reference lists of collected articles were reviewed to identify studies that our search strategy may have missed. The search was restricted to the years 1999 onwards and to European Union countries. When selecting articles, all studies in English or Spanish were included if they were related to the objectives ‐ whether they were original articles or reviews.
The selection of articles was conducted in different phases. First, the title and summary of each article were read; only those that were clearly related to the research question were selected for inclusion. Upon completing that phase, the full text was carefully read by technical experts; articles that did not comply with the study’s specific criteria were excluded, thus enhancing its reliability. The articles were chosen by two reviewers.
Next, Reference Manager software was used to create a data base of articles obtained in the search and duplicates were excluded. Finally, a qualitative synthesis of the results was produced.
Search Strategy for the Data Bases.
Data Bases Search Strategy
Pubmed "biological drugs" OR "biological drug" References: 192 ("biological drugs" OR "biological drug") AND “Europe”[Mesh] References: 19
Pubmed "Drugs, Generic"[Substance Name] AND "Biological Products"[MeSH Terms] References: 52 ("Drugs, Generic"[Substance Name] AND "Biological Products"[MeSH Terms]) “Europe”[Mesh] References: 6
Embase ('biosimilar drug' OR 'biosimilar drugs' AND [embase]/lim) AND ('europe'/exp AND [embase]/lim) AND ('biological drug' OR 'biological drugs' AND
68
[embase]/lim) Web of Science
Topic=("biosimilar drugs") Topic=("biological drugs") Topic=("biological drugs") AND Topic=(Europe or Italy or France or Spain or "United Kingdom" or Germany or Belgium or Netherlands or Greece or Switzerland or Finland or Sweden or Norway or Denmark or Poland or Croatia or Ireland or Slovenia or Latvia or Estonia or Lithuania or Belarus or Ukraine or Rumania or Hungary or Bulgaria or Turkey or Serbia or Bosnia or Albania or Portugal or Malta or Iceland or Russia or Moldova or Luxembourg)
3. Results
Eleven documents that addressed different aspects related to the impact of biosimilars on the EU market were found, but only three of them provided any empirical data. Except for one of them, which presented summaries of conferences delivered at the June 2009 OHE seminar, the others were opinion articles. Following is a brief presentation of the results obtained from each of the studies.
3.1. Relevant Studies
In 2007, Grabowski et al did a study to estimate market entry and the prices of biosimilars by using a theoretical model obtained from a regression that employed data related to generic drugs. The study’s goal was to use the theoretical model and empirical evidence to demonstrate that the high fixed costs borne by biosimilar drugs (largely attributeable to expensive clinical trials and elevated manufacturing costs) represent a determining factor in competetive pricing and the entry of more products into the market. In contrast to the generic market, fewer pharmaceutical companies are involved in the biosimilars market and so prices remain relatively close to the innovators and savings are lower. The authors characterize the biosimilar market as one based on monopolistic competition, with differentiated products but closely‐related substitutables. Therefore, according to the model’s estimates for the case of a pharmaceutical company capabable of competing in large markets for an extended period of time, the price of biosimilars would be 90% of an innovator’s price. The authors explain that the price of drugs decreases as the number of companies competing in the market increases, but recommend that policy makers be prudent when estimating the financial benefts that might accrue to consumers and taxpayers through the use of generic biologicals. Finally, and as a policy option aimed at increasing competition, the authors suggest that governments should create incentive mechanisms to encourage market entry. Such mechanisms could be oriented toward lowering fixed costs or be based on subsidies – for example, a 180‐day exclusivity period for the first biosimilar. (Even though they consider subsidies to be an inefficient mechanism when economy of scale is taken into account.)
69
The study concludes that governments should consider this information and determine how biosimilars may differ from generics in order to intervene effectively and, in so doing, generate benefits for consumers and taxpayers.
Chauchan et al 2008 analyzed the market characteristics of biosimilars, its main differences from the generics market, and ways in which payers can obtain value from this market. Following is a summary of the main topics addressed by the authors:
One key activity that would make the market more attractive to industry and improve competitive conditions for the entry of biosimilars would be the generation of patient safety years (PSY). They affirm that since policies in the context of current legislative and regulatory trends do not permit substitutability and interchangeability of biological drugs, one way to increase the probability of interchangeability and substitutability would be to build up data on PSY for biosimilars. Regulatory authorities will need to use data gathered from the ECAS on safety, quality and efficacy, both prior to and after the launching of biosimilars, in order to reinforce evidence on security and product interchangeability. If more PSY data is available, clinicians will be more inclined to interchange originals for biosimilars and goverments to consider substitution at the pharmacy level for non‐hospital products. Furthermore, regulators could reduce the burden of clinical trials imposed on newly‐entering biosimilars. The authors believe that the initial entry of biosimilars into the market will be slow due to the lack of data on safety and the predominantly conservative nature of clinical practitioners. However, as more data on safety becomes available, market penetration will be even greater, although the authors assume that some differences may still exist between therapeutic areas due to product differentiation.
In their market analysis the authors affirm the existence of heterogeneity and different levels of pressure on prices in each market, based on a segmentation theory of the biosimilars market in which a significant part of market agents have a highly elastic demand price (i.e., purchasing pharmacists) while the other, more clinically conservative part, is inelastic (i.e., health professionals). They also analyze how growing PSY data will affect the model’s behavior and the balance of prices. According to their theoretical model, the most likely outcome is that an accumulation of PSY data will lead to lower levels of product differentiation, thereby reducing the size of the market segment where demand is inelastic and increasing the size of the segment where demand is elastic. This would encourage innovative biological drug companies to lower their prices since not doing so would leave them with a lower market share, to the extent that if prices were increased it could leave almost all of the market to biosimilars.
According to the authors, biosimilars need to gain market share in order to
generate real data and obtain PSY information, which would require an
70
investment in clinical evidence and/or a reduction of prices. However, as time goes by, a threshold will be reached where PSY data will be sufficient to permit the general acceptance of biosimilars as interchangeable and bioequivalent, or increase the freedom to substitute. As more PSY data is made available, and the price of the originals goes down, demand price elasticity will increase and prices will reach marginal costs, leading to a market with characteristics similar to the generic model.
Price Trajectories
The authors state that, assuming the strategy of PSY data, the average weighted price will evolve as follows with regard to the market behavior of generics: initially the biosimilar will enter the market at a price lower than the original. Then, the price will decrease slowly over the short‐term, due to a lack of evidence on efficacy and safety and the low number of emerging companies. Price elasticity will be low due to the lack of evidence, however, companies can gain a competitive edge by cultivating certain services that are not dependent on price (for example, in services valued by doctors). The authors suggest that clinical work is vital to obtaining product acceptance, which is why post‐launch investments for biosimilars is essential: investments in marketing and relatively high price levels, as well as a supply of differentiated products (standard of services), when possible. They claim that until sufficient time has passed and post‐launch safety information has been gathered, it will be more beneficial for the companies to differentiate their products. Finally, a balance in prices will be reached. This price (in relative terms with regard to the reference product) will be above the level of generics due to the high fixed costs that biosimilar companies must face, both prior to and after launching their products. The Intervention of Payers in the Biosimilars Market
The authors state that payers can manage three options: 1) rules on substitutability to introduce price competition; 2) direct price intervention that would cause original product prices to fall (by inclusion in the reference pricing system or lowering the price of the biological drug whose patent has expired, or that of the biosimilar entering the market); and 3) assist the market by encouraging competitive entry: through infrastructure investments aimed at monitoring results and facilitating pharmaceutical surveillance by including studies on interchangeability.
They don’t believe it possible to have a market similar to generics by imposing lower prices or imposing substitutability and instead recommend a strategy aimed at designing policies that would provide incentives for generating high quality data on PSY. Such studies could analyze the second generation of biological drugs’ value for money as they compete with first generation drugs and biosimilars. Such studies could be conducted in a joint collaboration between the industry and government. Promoting the market’s function in this
71
way would improve reward for innovation while also increasing the benefits obtained by patients.
Accenture paper 2009 The authors state that in the year 2010 the market could grow by approximately five billion dollars. Upcoming patent expiries will permit an increase in the market share of biosimilars and heighten the influence of payers in the market. Regarding potential cost‐savings, the upcoming entry of biosimilars will undoubtedly contribute to a substantial reduction in expenses since the cost of an average daily treatment with biological drugs is $50. However, given the sizeable investments that must be made by biosimilars companies, the price of a biosimilar is approximately 20‐30% lower than the original’s price while for some conventional pharmaceuticals the average generic price is often 20% of the original (in some cases the original price can be 20 times higher than that of the generic). On the other hand, due to these and other previously mentioned factors, it is unlikely that biosimilars obtain a 70‐80% share of the market, as have generics. The authors mention several strategies that governments can adopt to promote the entry of new companies and, thus, competition. For example: 1) initiate communications activities with regulatory agencies and payers on the efficacy and safety of biosimilars; 2) launch both products ‐ the original and the biosimilar – simultaneously. This option is only valid for first generation biologicals that have been around for a long time, those about to launch their second generation; 3) introduce new forms of cooperation between pharmaceutical, biotechnological or generic companies that includes such activities. For example, in 2009 Teva announced a joint venture with Lonza to cooperate in developing, manufacturing and marketing biosimilars. This novel co‐development cooperation and alliance strategy allowed them to partner on selected products in targeted markets (i.e., they formed a strategic allliance between Sandoz and Gimbo, a distributor of dyalisis products, that allowed Sandoz to sell and promote activities of its EPO biosimilar, Binocrit, in selected European markets); 4) early‐entry strategies that include a careful selection of local and regional markets in which to switch from biologic to biosimilar; and 4) increase market consolidation activities. Sensabaugh et al 2007 Although final customers (patients or financing agencies) don’t obtain the same benefits from biosimilars as they do from generics, savings can be substantial. An example can be found in Poland (prior to its entry in the EU) when it introduced Gensulin (recombinant insulin) at a price 28% lower than its originator. This enabled Polish health insurance providers to save 90 million euros over four years, The first biosimilar launch in the EU took place in Germany (Omintrope), with a 20% discount on the price of the innovator; in Australia the discount was almost 25%. The authors use Tim Oldham’s decision modelling (of Mayne Pharma), to compare the potential savings of biosimilars with generics. Their analysis considers the following factors: marketing costs related to the selling of biosimilars (which are higher than in the market for generics); success rates (which are much lower in comparison to generics); current manufacturing costs (which are higher in comparison to generics; and
72
the element of risk (which is also much higher when compared with generics). The result of their model is that, assuming a minimum market share of 10%, savings in absolute terms are much higher for biosimilars than for generics (approximately 270‐560 million euros for biosimilars and 25‐55 million euros for generics). They put forth a strategy that biosimilar companies could consider to help them generate profits while awaiting approval to commercialize their products in large markets such as the EU and the USA: attempt to get their products approved in other markets, for example, in countries where potential sales might be lower but where regulations affecting the distribution of biosimlars are less strict. Grabowski 2009 Data exclusivity and patent protection have complementary functions in protecting innovators of biopharmaceuticals. If the exclusivity period for the data is too short, biotechnology companies could opt to invest in less risky biosimilars rather than innovative products on the vanguard of technology. Given high capital costs, smaller innovator companies will be most affected. They suggest that twelve or more years of exclusivity could be needed to maintain incentives for future medical advances. Pisani J and Bonduelle Y, 2006 The authors address the commercial implications of biosimilars and the requirements for their entry into the pharmaceutical market. They focus on reviewing the factors that play a role in stimulating the biosimilars market including the most successul (objective) therapeutic and geographical scenarios for generic manufacturers and ways in which companies must be re‐engineered if they want to become competitive in the market for biosimilars. Following is a brief summary of their key conclusions: According to Frost & Sullivan, the biosimilars market in the EU, as well as in the USA, could generate sales of 16.4 billion in 2011, with an annual growth rate of 69.8% However since commercial and scientific contraints faced by the biopharmaceutical industry impede the entry of these products into the market, companies need to reconsider their business models.
Regulators tend to be stricter when deciding whether or not to approve the commercialization of a biosimilar drug due to a lack of established methods for determining bioequivalance. Businesses, on the other hand, must contend with high manufacturing costs, largely attributable to the need to conduct a wide range of tests on efficacy and safety.
The manufacturer of brand‐name products (originals) is apt to use a sophisticated array of defensive tactics to maintain his market share, including the development of more complex biopharmaceuticals. Many of the biosmilars compete in the market with second generation products.
Each biosimilar’s sales strategy must contend with prices that reflect investments made in developing and manufacturing the drug, however, a small reduction in price will reduce the incentive for innovation. If, in addition to this, one considers how wary doctors are about the relative safety and efficiency of
73
Commercial decisions regardomg which products to develop will first depend on the level of sales that a biosimilar drug can generate in Europe. The biosimilars market is characterized by competition in prices, even when only one product exists or when only a few players exist in the market for one single product. This will reduce commercial opportunities. There appears to be general consensus that a discount of 20‐25% would be optimal for promoting a shift to the first generation of products. In summary, for a company to be successful in the biosmilars market it will need an adequate marketing structure, financial resources to support high manufacturing costs, and the capacity to accept high risks during the product’s development and commercialization phase, since short‐term benefits are likely to be small.
Shapiro, 2008 The authors evaluate cost‐savings for generic versions of 12 categories of biological treatments covered by patents that have expired or are about to expire in the near future, assuming a discount of between 25‐35% on the brand‐name product’s price. Their analysis also considers the following scenarios: product sales increase 11% annually prior the biosimilar’s introduction and 4% annually thereafter; 80% of market share will be for the biological drug and 20% for its biosimilar; prices for biologicals will descend 35% and 17% for biosimilars. The sequence of annual savings over the next 20 years is expressed in current net value, by applying a discount rate of 3.9%, a figure based on the average interest rate of US government bonds. The analysis estimates that profits will range from between $67 to $107 billion over the decade from 2010‐2019, assuming a 25% and 35% price discount, respectively ($235.7 billion to $377.7 from 2010 to 2029). This analysis assumes the approval of a biosimilar pathway in 2008 and that those products already off patent and produced for other markets could be approved for sale in the US by 2010. For the rest, it assumes two years from patent expiration to biosimilar introduction. The authors conclude that this is a conservative
74
estimate because they did not take into account the competitive pressure on prices for the treatments. A report in the Technology Review of the Massachussets Institute of Technology found that industry participants believed that larger discounts (around 30%‐50%) would be likely to occur. Therefore, it is expected that savings may actually be higher than the study suggests. IMS PPR magazine
PPR March 2009 pp 87. According to a study done by the generics manufacturer Sandoz, an increase in the use of biosimilars instead of originals could generate a total savings of $8.100 million within the GKV by 2020. This study assumes that by that time approximately 20 biosimilars would be registered in Germany with an average discounted price of more than 30% of the corresponding original’s price.
PPR August 2009 pp 251 The FTC predicts that only biological drugs with sales over $US250 million will face competition from biosimilars and that only two or three biosimilars will exist for each drug. In addition, it is considered unlikely that discounts offered by biosimilars be more than 10%‐30% of the corresponding biological’s price. Expectations are that biotech products maintain a 70%‐90% share of the market, due partially to the fact that innovators will offer competitive discounts on the original’s price in order to maintain their business.
PPR Ocotober 2007 pp.286 The first biosimilar has obtained less than 1% of the US$831 million European HGH market. Aithen attributes this fact to doctors’ conservative nature. In addition, the price was discounted only between 20%‐25% compared to the original. Tables 2 and 3 present a summary of sales data for biologicals and biosimilars according to documents gathered for this literature review. Tables 4 and 5 show a summary of estimated savings and price discounts for each one of the previously mentioned articles.
. Biosimilars Seminar OHE June 2009 (Post tagged) Alexis Ahlstrom “Estimated U.S. Savings from Biosimilars” in the OHE Briefing, Biosimilars: How Much Price Competition can Payers Expect? OHE Briefing. One study done in the United States to determine the cost savings from biosimilars claims that their market share will depend on four factors: FDA judgement about interchangeability, payer treatment, physician prescribing behaviour, consumer demand, and pricing. On the subject of the FDA’s ruling on interchangeability, the study affirms that, given the FDA’s position, the market share for biosimilars will grow more slowly than had been hoped, despite their lower price.
75
The report states that payers do not pressure doctors to prescribe the least expensive drugs. In addition, one key element in the market penetration of generics, the role played by pharmacists in substitution, is less important in the case of biosimilars since substitution is not possible and only a third of biological drugs are sold in pharmacies. One aspect that should be considered regarding the former statement is that although considerable information is available on doctors’ prescription activities and the demand for generics, very little is available for biosimilars. The report estimates that the impact of biosimilars in terms of cost savings will be gradual and predicts that real savings will not occur until the year 2015. Nonetheless, a high degree of uncertainty exists regarding the impact they will have on incentives for innovation. Dr Gopalan Narayanan: “Regulatory Hurdles for Biosimilars” in the OHE Briefing, Biosimilars: How Much Price Competition Can Payers Expect? In Europe, how prices are set for biosimilars has also affected the market for biological products. France, for example, applies the same discounts on biosimilars as on generics, thus making the biomsimilar’s price more or less equal to the brand‐name’s price. Germany includes some biosimilar drugs in its reference price system and promotes their utilization through directives, thus encouraging future use. An example from Germany illustrates the potential effect of price controls on biosimilars. In the wake of a series of price reductions, a Fixed Reference Price (FRP) group was created and that same year three biosimilars entered the market at a price 30% lower. The reduction in price of a brand‐name drug was quickly followed by the biosimilars and by another brand‐name drug. The factors that intervene in price dynamics are summarized in illustration 1. The extent to which such dynamics operate is largely dependent on the brand‐name drug’s strategy and on doctors’ and payers’ opinions regarding the risks involved.
Illustration 1. Factors that influence a potential price war with biosimilars
76
Source: Simon Kucher and Partners
Prof Richard Frank ”Price competition and Biosimilar” in the OHE Briefing, Biosimilars: How Much Price Competition can Payers Expect? It is difficult to develop cost savings models for the biosimilar market due to several factors that differ from generic markets: entry costs for biosimilars are higher and marginal costs are also higher, increasing with output; demand is sluggish due to consumer uncertainty, resistance on the part of doctors, and perhaps regulatory uncertainty as well. Consequently, almost all predictive models assume that price competition will be less intense and that prices will fall more smoothly than in the generics market. One often overlooked fact is that several of the 15‐30 companies or associations dedicated to exploiting the commercial use of biosimilars are located in India and China, where variable costs are fewer and lower. Thus, although entry costs are high, they can be offset by greater earning potential. Insofar as demand is concerned, several factors can contribute to modifying weak demand. For example, the participation of leading pharmaceutical companies will increase the confidence of all parties involved in using and commercializing biosimilars. Furthermore, if substitutability can be proven then the demand for lower‐priced biosimilar drugs will increase. The “comfort levels” of doctors and patients will also rise as further evidence emerges on efficacy and risks associated with biosimilars. All of these factors make it more complicated to predict how the entry of biosimilars will affect market prices. Up until now, experience with biosimilars suggests that prices will decrease by about 40%, however, there are scarcely enough of them upon which to make any conclusions.
Several key points for maximizing savings could include: setting policies that facilitate the entry of biosimilars into the market by minimizing regulatory bureaucracy; gradually increasing price competition; increased clinical evidence, and efforts to guarantee adequate comfort levels.
77
78
References
Biosimilar, Biogenerics and Follow‐on biologics. Script Reports 2007 (Accessed May
29, 2010). Available at:
http://www.scripintelligence.com/multimedia/archive/00000/BS1342_117a.pdf
Biosimilar: How strong a Market? PPR October 2007; pp:286‐287.
Biosimilars seminar OHE. June 2009 (Accessed April 30, 2010). Avaible at:
http://oheuk.wordpress.com/tag/biosimilars‐seminar/
Biosimilars: Emergence of a Third Market Dynamic Between Original Products and
Generics. Current situation, strategic options and recommendations. (Accessed
April 29, 2010). Available at:
http://www.accenture.com/Global/Services/By_Industry/Life‐Sciences/R‐and‐
I/Biosimilars‐Generics.htm
Chauhan D, Towse A, Mestre‐Ferrandiz J. The market for biosimilars: evolution and
policy options. (Accessed April 29, 2010). Available at:
http://www.ohe.org/page/publications/publication.cfm?catid=29&itemid=623.
European Round Up. PPR March 2009 pp 87
Grabowski HG, Ridley DB, Schulman KA. Entry and Competition in Generic Biologics.
Manage Decis Econ. 2007;28:439‐451.
Grabowski, H. Data Exclusivity for Biologics: What Is the Appropriate Period of
Protection?. AEI. 2009. (Accessed April 29, 2010). Available at:
http://www.aei.org/outlook/100068
North American Round‐up. PPR August 2009 pp: 250‐251.
Pisani J, Bonduelle, Y. Opportunities and barriers in the biosimilar market: evolution
or revolution for generics companies? (Accessed April 30, 2010). Avaible at:
http://www.ableindia.org/biosimilars.pdf
Sensabaugh SM. Biological generics: A business case. J Gen Med. 2007;4:186‐199.
Shapiro RJ, Singh K, Mukim M. The Potential American Market For Generic
Biological Treatments and the Associated Savings. Febrary 2008. [Access: 18 April
2010]. Available at: www.pharma‐mag.com.
Tabla 1 Market share by brand (billion global sales in 12 months to June 2006 and % of market share)
Product Market share(%)
Erythropoietin Global sale $13 billion
Epogen 23%
procrit 28%
Aranesp 33%
Neorecormon 12%
Others 4%
G‐CSF Global sale $5.6 billion
Leukine 2%
Neutrogin 5%
Neupogen 24%
Neulasta 51%
Others 18%
Interferon alpha Global sale $2.3 billion
roferon‐a 4%
Intron a 11%
preg‐intron 32%
Pegasys 38%
others 15%
Interferon beta Global sale $3.7 billion
betafron 25%
feron 1%
Avonex 43%
rebif 31%
Human growth hormone Global sale $1.9 billion
Saizen 11%
Humatrope 16%
Norditropin 24%
Genotropin 39%
Recombinant human insulin. Global sale $8 billion
levemir 2%
INS.HUMULIN REG. 2%
Humulin mix 4%
Humalog mix 5%
Humulin NPH 5%
ins. Actrapid HM 5%
Novomix 7%
Protaphane HM 7%
Novolin 11%
Novorapid 11%
Humalog 12%
Lantus 22%
Source: Pisani J and Boundelle, 2008 [Data from IMS]
79
Tabla 2 Sales of Biopharmaceuticals market by protein in 2005, 2006, 2010 y 2011
Protein
Global sales of Biologics,
2005 (Saphiro)
2006 ($ million)
Predicted biosimilar sales 2010*
2011 ($ million)µ
(CAGRα Percent )µ
Erythropoietin $10.9 13.400 $701 million1 24929 10,9
G‐CSF $3.8 7719 $605 million2 11591 7
Interferon beta $3.8 4005 $131 million1 5071 4
Interferon alpha $2.1 2670 $188 million2 4240 8
Insulin $7.2 4764 $138 million2 8440 10
Somatotropin $2.3 2472 $442 million2 3315 5
Others 32098 60037 11
Total world 67129 117623 9,8 Source: Shapiro 2008 [data from “Biologic Drug Report,” www.biologicdrugreport.com.] * Pisani & Bonduelle 2007 [data from IMS, Data Monitor]; 1 EU markets – no sales predicted in the USA; 2 USA and five major EU markets; µ: Script 2007; α:CAGR: compound annual growth rate
Tabla 3. Sales of Biosimilars market by protein in 2006 and 2011
Protein 2006 ($ million)
Percent 2011 ($ million)
Percent % market penetration
Erythropoietin 0 0,0 1247 38,6 5,0
G‐CSF 0 0,0 422 13,0 5,0
Interferon beta 0 0,0 203 6,3 4,0
Interferon alpha 0 0,0 85 2,6 2,0
Insulin 0 0,0 348 10,7 3,0
Somatotropin 0 0,0 331 10,2 10,0
Others 30 100 600 18,6 1,0
Total world 30 100 3236 100,0 2,8
Source: Script2007, [data from Biophoenix]
80
81
Tabla 4 Estimated US saving from biogenerics competition (2010‐2029) ($ billion)
25 Percent Discount 35 Percent Discount
2010‐2019 2010‐2029 2010‐2029 2010‐2029
Erythropoietins $14.39 $62.67 $23.07 $100.45
TNF Blockers $14.48 $30.72 $23.21 $49.23
Insulin & Insulin Analogs $24.68 $39.55
Cancer Antibodies $12.86 $38.76 $20.61 $62.13
Interferon Beta $7.00 $14.08 $11.23 $22.56
G‐CSF (granulocyte‐colony stimulating factors)
$6.48 $28.22 $10.39 $45.23
Human Growth Hormone $3.60 $7.18 $5.71 $11.51
Recombinant Coagulation Factors
$3.36 $7.48 $5.36 $12.16
Interferon Alfa $5.80 $9.29
Enzyme Replacement $2.80 $6.38 $4.53 $10.23
Antiviral Antibodies $1.29 $5.60 $2.07 $8.97
Follicle‐Stimulating Hormones $0.93 $4.00 $1.47 $6.41
Total $67.19 $235.67 $107.65 $377.72 Fuente: Shapiro 2008
Tabla 5. Cost‐saving and discounted price from literature research
Reference
Country (or biosimilar) considered
Time for cost‐saving
Cost‐saving estimated Discounted
price Source/model
Grabowski et al. 2007
Limited saving: The price ratio is a function of the number of generic manufacturers. if the are:
- 1 generic entrant, the generic prices would be 90% of the branded prices.
- 3 manufacturers, then the generic prices are expected to be 75%.
- 12 generic manufacturers, the generic expect to be the 33% of the branded price.
18% Regression of a theoretical model
Cumulative savings of 3,6 bn n/a References: Ahlstrom et al. (2007)i
$71bn n/a ‐ Millar and Houts et al. (2007)ii US market 2008‐17
$14,4bn (excluding the EPO market) n/a ‐ Usdin. (2007)iii Chauchan et al 2008
EU market n/a 2bn per annum saving for payers from the introduction into Europe of biosimilars into the top six biopharmaceutical market.
n/a Reference: European Generic Association (2005)iv
2010‐2011 From US$16 to 20bnv Reference: Ernest & Young, 2006v
EU market
2007‐2011 Annual growth rate of nearly 70% are expected Reference: Ernest & Young, 2006 v
Poland Introduction of Gensuling by
Biotin
2001 €90m (in 4 years) Currently saving per year are €65m 20% Tim Oldham of Mayne Pharmavi
Germany: Omnitrope by
Sandoz n/a n/a 25% Reference: Global Insightvii
Sensabaugh et al 2007
Australia: Omnitrope by n/a n/a 25%‐35% Reference: PharmaWeekviii
82
83
Script 2007
For example, Avastin, Genentech’s colon cancer treatment, costs over $50,000 per patient per year (or $550 per 100mg vial wholesale, ie. $5.50/mg). The same company’s Lucentis for wet macular degeneration (which is a related product), costs $23,400 per treated eye per year.
Accenture 2009
Global market “payers and health care systems can achieve significant savings since biologic treatment costs are on average $50 per day, some 20 times higher than tradicional pharmaceuticals”
20%‐30% Accenture research
PPR October 2007 pp286
20%‐25% PPR September 2006 pp254‐255
PPR March 2009 pp 87
Global market 2020 €8,100 million within the GKV 30% Study prepared for the generic manufacturer Sandozix
Pisani & Bonduelle
2007 n/a n/a n/a 20‐25% Author’s opinion
Over the first 10 years
$67 bn to $108bn
Over 20 years
$236bn‐$378bn
25%‐35% Saving are calculated based on differences between original drug price and competing drug price US market
Over 10 years
$43,2 bn over 10 years or an Average of more than $4 mill per year n/a Everett Ehrilch consultantx
Over 10 years
$3,6bn to 14bn over 10 years n/a Ahlstyrom, et alxi
Shapiro, 2008
EU market: Valtropin
20%‐25% Moran N, 2008xii
n/a n/a n/a
Competition from 2 o 3 biogeneric should produce discount of 40%‐50%
Datamonitor, 2005xiii
i. Ahlstrom A, King R, Brown R, Glaudemans J and Mendelson D (2007) Modelling Federal Cost Savings from Follow-On Biologics, Avalere Health LLC; ii. Miller S and Houts J (2007) Potential Savings of Biogenerics in the United States, Express Scripts: St Louis MO. Available at http://www.express-scripts.com; iii.Usdin S (2007) Firing up for FOBs, BioCentury – The Bernstein Report on Biobusiness, March 2007. iv. European Generics Association (2005) FAQ on Biosimilar Medicinal Products, Brussels, Belgium (see www.egagenerics.com/doc/FAQ_biosimilars.pdf); v.Ernest & Young . Beyond borders: The global biotechnology report 2006, www.ey.com/beyondborders; vi. Oldham , T . Healthcare economics and biosimilars:Do we still risk missing the boat? presented at 4th EGA Symposium on Biosimilars, London, 18th May, 2006; and personal communication, T. Oldham, Mayne Pharma, and Chair, Biosimilars and Biotechnology Committee, European Generic medicines Association; vii. Global Insight . Available at: http://www.
globalinsight.com/SDA/SDADetail5845.htm ; viii.PharmWeek, Cambridge Healthcare Institute . Available at: http://www.pharmaweek.com/ Exclusive_Content/1_26.asp; ix.El estudio de PPR assume que alrededor de
20 biosimilares estarán aprobados en Alemania en 2020, con un precio medio de más del 30% comparado con el original; x.Ehrlich, Everett, and Elizabeth L. Wright, “Biogenerics: What They Are, Why They Are Important, and Their Economic Value to Taxpayers and Consumers,” Citizens Against Government Waste, Policy Briefing Series, May 2007; xi Ahlstyrom, et al., op. cit; and “Report to the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association,” Engel & Novitt, LLP, 2 January 2007.xii Moran, Nuala, “Fractured European market undermines biosimilar launches,” Nature Biotechnology 26.1 (January 2008). Xiii “Biogenerics” Datamonitor, October 2005