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Asif Anwar, Advanced defence Systems Service
The impact of budget constraints
on future defence technology investment
Working with Global Leaders to Address Client Requests
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2 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
3
Help Me Understand
What’s Happening? What’s Likely to Happen?
• Wireless
• Consumer
• Automotive
• defence
• Telecoms
• Enabling Technologies
Markets
Competitors
Customers
Opportunities
Products
Technology
Costs
3 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
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4 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
Defence budgets are being squeezed
Current
Multiple fronts Global economics Conventional and
asymmetric
GWOT
Asymmetric UOR
Cold War
Nationalism “higher, faster, further”
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October 12th, 2011
US defence spending slow down and mirrored globally
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ B
illio
ns
Total Procurement Total RDT&E
Operations & Maintenance Military Personnel
Miltary Construction Military Family Housing
Other
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UK defence spending slowing down by 8%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Baseline 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
GB
P M
illio
n
Resource Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) Capital DEL
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Slowdown in defence reflected in industry revenues…
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
$ B
illio
ns
Overall revenues
0 50
BAE Systems
Boeing
EADS
Finmeccanica
General Dynamics
Lockheed Martin
Northrop Grumman
Raytheon
Thales
$ Billions
2010
2009
2008
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…and stock market performance
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Defining global conflict scenarios
Hybrid
Technology is the
differentiator
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October 12th, 2011
What does this mean for defence platforms?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
US DoD Budget Air Platform Expenditure
Fighter Aircraft Other Aircraft UAVs
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Europe is taking a two-pronged approach
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October 12th, 2011
Platform mission envelope expands
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ B
illio
n
Communications Electronics Computer Electronics
EW Electronics Radar Electronics
ISR Electronics Other inc. weapons Electronics
13 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
Communication systems trends
Battlespace netcentricity
Multi-mode
Multi-band
SDR and cognitive
Data
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Defence Radio Market
Satcom
Naval
Land
Airborne
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ M
illio
ns
Defence Radio Semiconductor Demand
Other
GaN
Silicon/SiGe
GaAs
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October 12th, 2011
Some recent examples from European companies
• Cassidian is developing a solution for IP-based mobile ad-hoc networks (MANET)
• Mobile IP Node • Detect and find available bandwidth and
frequency resources • Create secure communications networks
around UHF, VHF and Satcom resources
• Elektrobit also highlighting its Tactical Wireless IP Network
• Utilize MIMO • Roadmap towards higher bandwidth and
cognitive radios
15 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
EW systems trends
Wideband
Sensitivity
Power
Selectivity
Processing
Receive Channel
Receive Channel
Digital P
rocessin
g Transmit Channel
Transmit Channel
Wideband receiver
Digital Processing ADC
RF in
16 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
Radar system trends
Parabolic reflectors and flat plate planar array
Passive electronically scanned array
Active electronically scanned array
17 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
European suppliers extending AESA radar beyond the fast-jet
• Cassidian recently launched the TRS-4D surveillance and target multifunction naval radar
• AESA radar combined with mechanical rotation in azimuth
• Using GaN transmit modules
• BAE Systems has developed a suite of AESA radars • Naval, Sampson • Air defence (naval platforms),
ARTISAN • Land radar, EWACS
• Technology utilizing GaAs T/R modules
18 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
GaAs Power Device
Thermal Limit
GaAs Power Device
Theoretical Limit InP Power Device
Theoretical Limit
GaN Power Device
Theoretical Limit
Vacuum Tube
Regime
GaN Power Device
Thermal Limit
?
What are the enabling technologies?
SiGe Power Device
Theoretical Limit
19 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
Conclusions
• Budgets and systems – SWaP-C
– Emphasis on cheaper, faster, better
– Upgrading capabilities
• Common requirements from electronics systems – Broadband
– Power
– Linearity
– Digitization
• Opportunities for broad range of technologies – Complementary
20 2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
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For further information on this analysis or other research, see https://www.strategyanalytics.com/default.aspx?mod=saservice&a0=96&m=5#0
Asif Anwar, [email protected] , +44 1908 423635
Stephen Entwistle, [email protected], +44 1908 423636
Mark Holden, [email protected] , +44 1908 423602
Serge Rozenblum, [email protected] , +33 1 53 40 99 51
Hakan Gustafsson, [email protected], +49 89 51 51 35 35
2011 Defence and Security Forum, EuMW,
October 12th, 2011
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