Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

The impact of climate change today and on the world of tomorrow

Dr. Raffaele SalernoHead of Research, Development and Production

Epson Meteo Centre

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Epson Meteo Centre

• A private independent applied meteo research organisation, established in 1995

• Weather forecasting and seasonal outlooks• Internal HPCF*(1 Teraflop)• Numerous modelling applications including

climate predictions• International research projects and

collaboration • Application of weather research to industry,

agriculture, communications, transportation, energy and oil companies, as well as media (newspapers, radio, television, web)

*High Performance Computing Facility

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Climate change is now!Climate change is now!• Weather records of 2005Weather records of 2005

• One of the warmestwarmest years on historical record: 0.62 °C above the 1880 - 2004 mean temperature 0.53 °C above the 1961-1990 mean temperature almost same as in 1998, but without ‘El Nino’

• Second highestSecond highest in the Northern Hemisphere, sixth in Southern Europe in terms of surface temperature• Regionally the highesthighest temperature in Australia and the highest average temperature recorded in Canada and Siberia• Global carbon dioxide concentration rose 2 ppm, slightly above the 1.6 ppm/year observed since 1980• Cost: global economic losses of $200 billion dollars ($125 billion = Katrina; previous record = $175 billion in 1995)

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Laika Glacier in 2005, compared to Laika Glacier in 2005, compared to 19711971

Google-Earth, 2005

Coast line

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

ARCTICARCTICCoburg Island and Coburg Island and Pond InletPond Inlet, CA, CA

2005

next picture

1975

Signs of climatic change: glaciers and mountains

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

• Prediction of the warming of the upper troposphere by better-mixed greenhouse gases as at the end of this century.

• Recent evidence of anomalous temperatures in the upper troposphere have been observed from December 2007 to January 2008 in South America

Climate change: recent developments

(NB: NEW results not yet publishedNEW results not yet published)

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Climate prediction based on past climate• The past behaviour of

Earth’s climate provides powerful insight into what may happen in the future

• Example: A cold period, known as ‘Little Ice Age’ occurred between 1300 and 1850. This period was characterised by severe winters and shifting climate regimes

A frozen canal in the Netherlands in a painting by P. Breughel is

evidence of the Little Ice Age

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Emission scenarios

Future anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be the product of different drivers such as demographic development, socioeconomicdevelopment, and technological changes.

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Global Surface Air Temperature

11

12

13

14

1516

17

18

19

20

19

61

19

70

19

79

19

88

19

97

20

06

20

15

20

24

20

33

20

42

20

51

20

60

20

69

20

78

20

87

20

96

Year

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

GlobalWithout any significant mitigation

action, temperature will rise 2°C by 2050 and this is not the

worst scenario

today 2050

4.0 °C

2.0 °C

Stabilising at 445–490 ppm

CO2-equivalent) could limit

global mean temperature increases to

2°C above the pre-industrial

level

Temperature scenarios

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Climate prediction

• Maximum surface temperatureWinter Spring

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Climate prediction

• Maximum surface temperatureSummer Autumn

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Autumn

Climate prediction

Global precipitation

280,000

290,000

300,000

310,000

320,000

330,000

340,000

350,000

196

1

196

8

197

5

198

2

198

9

199

6

200

3

201

0

201

7

202

4

203

1

203

8

204

5

205

2

205

9

206

6

207

3

208

0

208

7

209

4

Year

mm

Precipitation may be the best indication of climate change. This is the global precipitation in mm/yr which shows a tendency increaseafter 2015

Distribution of Autumn precipitations as for the end of century

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Impacts

• Climate change has direct effects on physical and biological systems on all continents and in most oceans

• Effects on humans:– excessive mortality in Europe– evidence of changes in the distribution of

some human disease vectors in parts of Europe, Africa, Asia

– earlier onset and increase in the seasonal production of allergenic pollen in mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

On 10 summits in the Bernina region, Swiss AlpsOn 10 summits in the Bernina region, Swiss AlpsUniversities of Zürich and Hannover, October 2005Universities of Zürich and Hannover, October 2005

3262 m

2959 m

Ca. 1930 1980 2005 2050

- More then a doubling of the number of species over the last 75 years- A further doubling from the present day to the year 2050- Acceleration of the increasing number of species

Impacts

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Impacts

• Socioeconomic impacts:– migrations due to sea rise– tourism– agriculture– freshwater availability– increasing costs due to

modification to biological system and human health impact

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

• Flooding, land loss, salinisation of groundwater and the destruction of buildings and infrastructures

• >1500 million people will be exposed to increased water resource stress by the year 2050

• >2 millions km2 of land will experience vegetation dieback

• >10 million people will be flooded in coastal areas

Impacts

Artic ice and snow cover evolution in July, from present

day to 2050Darker colours mean greater

depths, light red colour means thinner layers, white means

no ice or snow

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

During the ‘multisecular event‘rain fell up to 3400 m and causeda lot of debris in the mountains, due to:- glacial retreat- ice exposure- retreating permafrost

Heavy precipitation hit the Northen Swiss Alps,21-23 August 2005.

South Engadine, Switzerland

Brienz, BernRegion, Switzerland

Impacts

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Vulnerability reduction

• Specific policies and programmes• Individual initiatives• Participatory planning processes and other

community approaches• Promotion of environmental quality• Transforming current practices for

environmental resources into sustainable management practices

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Mitigation

• We need negative net emissions towards the end of this century

• Mitigation efforts over the next two or three decades will have a major impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilisation levels.

• Emissions are required to decline before 2015 and further reduced to less than 50% of today’s emissions by 2050

• Multi-gas emissions reduction scenarios are needed (able to meet climate targets at substantially lower costs compared to a CO2-only strategy).

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Remarks

•  Greenhouse Gas Reduction required:• Carbon Dioxide : 60%• Methane : 20%• Nitrous Oxide : 80%However, a 60% cut in carbon dioxide emissions, either now or over the next few years, will be almost impossible to achieve.Even the most optimistic IPCC emissions scenario foresees a rise in carbon emissions by 2025, with only a gradual decline by the year 2100

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Conclusions

• If climate model projections prove to be even moderately accurate, global temperatures by the end of this century will be higher than at any time during the last 120,000 years.

• Failure to introduce some form of global greenhouse gas emission reduction strategy will merely extend the timeframe of global warming that humanity is already witnessing, with very serious consequences for ecosystems and mankind, including risks of unsustainable social and economic costs which can lead to unpredictable direct consequences in many parts of our planet.

Brussels, 2 June 2008Brussels, 2 June 2008

Thank you for listeningThank you for listening