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Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
The Impact of Free Secondary Education:Experimental Evidence from Ghana
Ghana Education Evidence Summit
March, 2017
Esther Duflo Pascaline Dupas Michael Kremer
MIT Stanford Harvard
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Introduction
• With growth of primary education, increased calls for free secondary education, internationally (it is one of the SDG) and in Ghana
• Part of the campaign platform of Ghana’s new government
• Many anticipate large economic and social impacts, especially for girls.
• Others less optimistic • Secondary education is expensive
• Will students learn?
• Will they get jobs?
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
This Study
• 2,064 students admitted to particular secondary school and major, but did not enroll in term 1 (mostly due to lack of fund)
• 682 received offer of 4-year scholarships to attend day secondary school
• Examine impact of free secondary education holding admission criteria constant. Relevant policy.
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
II. Background & Study Design
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Ghana’s Education System
• 95% primary school enrollment; 75% JHS enrollment
• 70% of JHS students take JHS finishing exam• 60% of test takers pass
• 80% of those who pass enroll in SHS (Ajayi 2014)
• Tuition for day (non-boarding) SHS students in 2011: 500 Ghana cedis (Per capita GDP in 2011: 2400 Ghana cedis)
• Only 700 SHS nationwide (compared to 9000 JHS)
• Girls 6 p.p. (20%) less likely to reach SHS
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
This Study
• 2,064 students sampled from 177 SHS across 5 regions of rural southern Ghana. • admitted into a particular Senior High School (SHS) and major
based on JHS exam score
• not enrolled in any SHS as of December 2008
• some girls who graduated from JHS in 2007
• 682 randomly selected to receive 4-year SHS scholarship
• Scholarship covers the full tuition and fees for a day student for 4 years• Average Cost = GHX 1920 (~US$480)
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Timeline of Surveys
• Fall 2008: Baseline Survey, distributed cell phones to improve follow up rate
• Spring 2013: In-person Follow-up Survey (5-year impacts)• Include cognitive testing questions based on PISA
• Spring 2015: follow-up survey by phone (home tracking for 15% stragglers) (7-year impacts)
• Spring 2016: follow-up survey by phone (home tracking for 15% stragglers) (8-year impacts)• Average age at time of survey: 25• 97% survey rate • Focus on this data for labor market outcomes; questions are
better
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
III. Impact on Educational Attainment and Learning
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
1. Impacts on Educational Attainment
•Scholarship increased educational attainment –although close to half of the students who did not win the lottery eventually enrolled
•Winners of the lottery were 30 percentage points (50%) more likely to enroll in SHS
• Spent 1.26 more years in secondary education than non-winners
•Effects similar across genders, majors, cells
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Sh
are
enr
olle
d in
SH
S
Term 1----------
Term 2---2008/09----
Term 3----------
Term 1----------
Term 2---2009/10----
Term 3----------
Term 1------2010
Term 2/11-------
Term 32011/12
Treatment: BECE'08 Boys BECE'08 Girls BECE'07 Girls
Control: BECE'08 Boys BECE'08 Girls BECE'07 Girls
1. Impacts on SHS Enrollment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Fiscal Cost of Free SHS policy
• Scholarship winners = 3.09 years in SHS; non-scholarship winners = 1.83 • Scholarship paid for 3.09 years of education per 1.26
additional years (3.09 – 1.83 = 1.26)
• Free secondary education would pay for 6-15 years of schooling per each additional year • Lower bound assumption: leads 25% of students not passing
JHS exam to pass • Upper bound assumption : No effect on JHS pass rate
• Estimated cost of scholarship: $7,600 per additional graduate
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
2. Learning Outcomes Total Standardized Score
0
-0.175
0.183
0.151
0.021
0.28
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
All*** Female*** Male
Combined
Stan
dar
diz
ed
sco
re o
n c
ogn
itiv
e t
est
s (2
01
3)
Control
Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
By category of high school
0.19
0.49
0.09
0.24
-0.22
-0.05
-.4
-.2
0.2
.4.6
Sta
nd
ard
ize
d S
core
on
Cog
niti
ve S
kills
Te
st
Cat A/B (n=95), pval=.163Cat C (n=1,286), pval=.01***
Cat D (n=603), pval=.066*
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Tertiary Education
•Gaps of multiple years between SHS and tertiary education are not uncommon in Ghana, so may not be able to observe the full long run-effect of scholarships yet on tertiary.
•As of now, only 9.1% of the control group ever enrolled in tertiary education. The scholarship increased tertiary enrollment by 3.0 percentage points (33%)
•Big increase, but still way below expectations
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
3. Ever enrolled in tertiary education (2016)
0.091
0.075
0.107
0.1210.124
0.118
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
All** Female** Male
Combined
Eve
r En
rolle
d in
Te
rtia
ry E
du
cati
on
(2
01
6)
Control
Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
3. Ever enrolled in tertiary education (2016)
0.11
0.095
0.126
0.077
0.06
0.095
0.163
0.188
0.139
0.092
0.079
0.104
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
All** Female** Male All Female Male
Academic Vocational
Eve
r En
rolle
d in
Te
rtia
ry E
du
cati
on
(2
01
6)
Control
Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
3. Ever enrolled in tertiary education (2016)
0.11
0.095
0.126
0.077
0.06
0.095
0.163
0.188
0.139
0.092
0.079
0.104
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
All** Female** Male All Female Male
Academic Vocational
Eve
r En
rolle
d in
Te
rtia
ry E
du
cati
on
(2
01
6)
Control
Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
V. Impacts on Marriage, Fertility and Health Behavior
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Marriage and Fertility Effects
•At age 25, women are 9.1 percentage points (26%) less likely to have ever lived with a partner,
•10.7 percentage points (18%) less likely to have ever been pregnant,
•11.5 percentage points (18%) less likely to have had an unwanted pregnancy , and
•Have had .217 (27%) fewer children. • The effects are seen across majors
•Effects for men are not significant
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
4. Marriage and Fertility
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
All*** Female*** Male All*** Female*** Male
Ever lived with partner (2016) Ever pregnant/had a pregnant partner (2016)
Control
Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
4. Marriage and Fertility
0.519
0.814
0.212
0.389
0.597
0.182
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Nu
mb
er
of
child
ren
eve
r h
ad (
20
16
)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
4. Health Behavior
0
0.096
-0.099
-0.052
0.082
-0.183-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
Ind
ex o
f ri
sky
sexu
al b
eh
avio
r (s
afe
-->r
isky
) (2
01
3)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
4. Health Behavior
1.624
1.691
1.555
1.74
1.815
1.669
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
Pre
ven
tati
ve h
eal
th b
eh
avir
o in
dex
(2
01
3)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
VI. Labor Market Impacts
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Macro Context During Study Period
• Rapid growth ends in 2012, induces fiscal retrenchment:• Nursing and Teacher Training programs allowances and
quotas removed in 2013• Common for participants to wait two years before getting admission
to tertiary education due to quotas
• Government hiring freeze in 2015
• SHS length shortened from 4 to 3 years in 2009/2010• Study participants graduated in a double cohort with
students who enrolled a year later
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Labor Market Effects—whole sample
• Bleak labor market: only 44% of women and 68% of men in control group had positive earnings in last month. • Recall negative labor market shocks during study period.
• 2.5 p.p. more students in treatment group in formal study/training • Mostly enrolled in tertiary, but also includes a few students still
enrolled in secondary education• No difference among vocational admits• 6.8 p.p for academic women • 3.6 p.p for academic men.
•Despite this in the whole sample, scholarship winners have better labor market outcomes (on extensive margin)
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Key Effects: Full Sample
•5.5 percentage points (~10%) more likely to have any earnings in the past month
•Winning a scholarship increased inverse hyperbolic sine of Ghana cedi earnings by .308 (driven by fewer zeros)
•No evidence of intensive margin gains on log earnings if positive, hours conditional on work, earnings per hour
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Labor Market Outcomes: Earnings
3.214
2.413
4.054
3.522
2.796
4.231
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Inve
rse
hyp
erb
olic
sin
e e
arn
ings
(2
01
6)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Labor Market Outcomes: Earnings
5.066
4.792
5.251
5.047
4.841
5.187
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
Log
ear
nin
gs la
st m
on
th if
po
siti
ve (
20
16
)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Labor Market Outcomes: Earnings
0.556
0.441
0.679
0.611
0.504
0.718
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Po
siti
ve e
arn
ings
(2
01
6)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Vocational Admits : Earnings
•For vocational admits, interpretation straightforward because no effect on formal study/training
•Scholarships increase inverse hyperbolic sine earnings by .505
• Increase absolute earnings by 25.9 GHX (19% )
•Scholarship recipients 8.8 percent points (16%) more likely to have any earnings (on a base of 56%)
•Cannot reject similar effects by gender
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Vocational Admits: Earnings
3.263
2.484
4.059
3.768
2.982
4.541
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Inve
rse
hyp
erb
olic
sin
e e
arn
ings
(2
01
6)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Vocational Admits: Earnings
0.564
0.452
0.6790.652
0.539
0.764
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Po
siti
ve e
arn
ings
(2
01
6)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Vocational Admits: Earnings
5.074
4.812
5.25
5.08
4.824
5.255
4.5
4.6
4.7
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
5.2
5.3
Log
ear
nin
gs la
st m
on
th if
po
siti
ve (
20
16
)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Labor Market Outcomes: Academic Admits
• Too early to draw strong conclusions: some effect on tertiary education
• However, well-defined outcomes at date of survey:• “Positive earning or in school” +4 pp whole sample
(insignificant); +8.7pp for female (significant) -2% for males (insignificant)
• Result to date suggest effects on earnings, hours, and participation are all small and insignificantly different from zero, and significantly smaller than for vocational admits.
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Earnings (Academic Majors, Full Sample)
3.143
2.313
4.047
3.162
2.526
3.778
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Inve
rse
hyp
erb
olic
sin
e e
arn
ings
(2
01
6)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
5. Earnings (Academic Majors, Full Sample)
0.545
0.424
0.678
0.552
0.452
0.65
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Po
siti
ve e
arn
ings
(2
01
6)
Control Treatment
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Conclusion
• Scholarships increased secondary school completion rates by 30 percentage points
• Secondary education leads to significant gains on cognitive scores
• Secondary education delays fertility and marriage; enables healthier behaviors
• Labor market outcomes depend on SHS major • Vocational majors experience improved labor market
outcomes• Female Academic majors increase tertiary enrollment• Male Academic majors do not see significant benefits by age
25 –fell way short of sky-high expectation at baseline• Consistent with a limited number of tertiary spots/government jobs
and little cognitive gains for them.
Duflo, Dupas, Kremer Returns to Secondary Education: Ghana March 2017
Conclusion
• Treatment effects for women are greater on a number of dimensions • Learning, tertiary enrollment, fertility and marriage, labor
market outcomes
• Results may change over time: • Those in tertiary school will graduate and enter labor market
(for example those who went to teacher college and got a diploma got their posting this fall)
• Employment rates will likely increase in rest of sample
• Possible effect on children of secondary school graduates
• Plan to continue tracking the population for as long as possible.