the impact of iowa’s changing demographic on workforce and economic development

The Impact of Iowa’s Changing Demographic on Workforce and Economic Development

Drew Conrad, CEcDThe Institute for Decision MakingThe University of Northern Iowa

The Institute for Decision MakingThe University of Northern Iowa

• Created in 1987• 680+ clients

– Economic Development Corporations

– Chambers of Commerce– CVB/Tourism– Community Planning Groups– State Agencies– Utilities– Other Non-Profits

• All 99 counties & beyond

• Areas of Assistance:– Organizational Planning– Community Planning– Business Retention &

Expansion– Community Marketing

& Business Attraction– Organizational

Development– Workforce Planning &

Research

Outline

I. Population

II. Characteristics of Iowans

III. Characteristics of Households & Families

IV. Employment & Workforce

V. Things to Ponder

VI. Useful Resources

Iowa in 2010• 3,046,355 population– Increase of 120,031– 4.1% growth rate

• Iowa’s 99 counties– 33 grew since 2000– 23 < 10,000– 6 > 100,000

• Iowa’s 947 cities– 337 grew since 2000– 664 < 1,000– 38 > 10,000

• Iowa’s 359 public school districts– 473,493 students

• 20,798 fewer than 2000• Projected + 11,412 by 2015

– 15 fewer districts than 2000

Sources: Census Bureau & Iowa Department of Education

Population

Iowa’s Population

Sources: Census Bureau

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20110

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,0003,062,309; 30th rank

3,046,355; 30th rank

MILA NY VT IL IA MS ND W

INH NE KY MN OK AR CA OR VA AK

WY SC FL NC ID AZ

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Percentage Change 2000-2010

U.S. grew by 9.7%IA grew 4.1%; 40th rank


Percentage Change 1900-2010

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

21.0%

15.0%16.2%

7.3%

14.5%

18.5%

13.4%

11.4%9.8%

13.2%

9.7%

-0.3%

8.1%

2.8% 2.7% 3.3%

5.2%

2.5% 3.1%

-4.7%

5.4%4.1%

United States Iowa


Components of Iowa’s Population Change

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

Natural ChangeNet Domestic MigrationNet International Migration

GOOD!

BAD!!

Sources: Census Bureau: Population Estimates Program

2010 Population by County Type


Metro Counties; 172171400.0%; 56.5%

Adjacent Counties; 68983700.0%; 22.6%

Rural Counties; 63480400.0%; 20.8%

Population History by County Type

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Metro Adjacent to a Metro

Rural

34.8% of Pop.20.8% of Pop.

56.5% of Pop.


Components of Population Change by County Type (2000-2009)


Natural Change

Net Domestic Migration

Net International Migration

-40,000 -20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

95,837

21,815

27,189

9,632

-35,663

4,713

927

-38,357

4,427RuralAdjacent to a MetroMetro

Population Change by County Type (2010-2011)


Metro

Adjacent to a Metro

Rural

-10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

19,551

-1,144

-2,453

Iowa – 3,062,309 in 2011 (+0.5%)

Components of Population Change by County Type (2010-2011)


Natural Change

Net Domestic Migration

Net International Migration

-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

9,902

3,061

2,244

645

-2,230

540

-118

-2,287

366

RuralAdjacent to a MetroMetro

Characteristics of Iowans

Population by Sex and Age

Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

Iowa

120,000 60,000 0 60,000 120,000


Under 5 years

5 to 9 years

10 to 14 years

15 to 19 years

20 to 24 years

25 to 29 years

30 to 34 years

35 to 39 years

40 to 44 years

45 to 49 years

50 to 54 years

55 to 59 years

60 to 64 years

65 to 69 years

70 to 74 years

75 to 79 years

80 to 84 years

85 years and over

U.S

12.0 mil 6.0 mil 0 6.0 mil 12.0 mil

2010 Median Age

ME VTW

V NH FL PA CT MT RIMA NJ MI

DEOH HI

WI

OR IA KYMD NY TN AL

MO SC VA ARMN NC

WA IN ND SD

WY NM IL NV NE

OK CO KS MS AZ LA GA CA ID AK TX UT25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

37.2 yrs for U.S. 38.1 yrs for Iowa; 33rd rank


2010 Median Age


1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 201026.0

28.0

30.0

32.0

34.0

36.0

38.0

40.0

31.030.3

28.8

30.0

34.1

36.6

38.1

30.2 29.5

28.1

30.0

32.8

35.3

37.2Iowa US

2010 Median Age• Only 2 counties

with a median age under 30 years:– Story (28.2)– Johnson (29.8)

• 72 counties with a median age 40 years or older– Dickinson (46.3)– 7 metro counties


2010 Educational Attainment

Less than 9th grade

9th to 12th grade, no diploma

High school graduate (includes equivalency)

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional degree

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

3.9%

5.5%

33.7%

21.8%

10.0%

17.1%

7.9%

6.1%

8.3%

28.5%

21.3%

7.6%

17.7%

10.4%

U.S.Iowa

Sources: Census Bureau: 2005-2009 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Iowa’s Educational Attainment

Less than 9th grade

9th to 12th grade, no diploma

High school graduate (includes equivalency)

Some college, no degree

Associate's degree

Bachelor's degree

Graduate or professional degree

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%

2010 2000

1990


Intentions of 2010 Public High School Graduates

4-Year College37.5%

2-Year College41.3%

Other Training3.2%

Employment8.2%

Homemaker0.2%

Military2.8%

Unknown6.7%

Sources: Iowa Department of Education

Characteristics of Households & Families

Households

• 2.46 average size in 2000– 2.59 for U.S.

• 2.41 average size in 2010– 2.58 for U.S.

• In 2000, 27.5% were persons living alone– 11.4% are 65+

• In 2010, 28.4% were persons living alone– 11.0% are 65+


Average Household Size

Data Classes

Persons

2.18 - 2.27

2.28 - 2.34

2.35 - 2.43

2.44 - 2.53

2.55 - 2.70


Families

• Family Household Size– 3.00 in 2000 & 2.97 in 2010• U.S.: 3.14 in 2000 & 2010

• Households with Kids– 33.3% in 2000– 30.6% in 2010• U.S.: 36.0% in 2000 & 33.4% in 2010

– 5.6% female householder in 2000 & 5.9% in 2010• U.S.: 7.2% in 2000 & 2010


Income (2010)

• Median Household Income– $48,031 in Iowa– $50,046 for U.S.

• Per Capita Income– $25,335 in Iowa– $27,334 for U.S.

Sources: Census Bureau: 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates & Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

Median Household Income

Sources: Census Bureau: Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$55,000

$33,436

$48,031

$34,076

$50,046

Iowa U.S.

Median Household Income


Poverty (2010)

• 12.5% of all Iowans– 15.3% of U.S.

• 16.2% of Iowans under 18 years– 21.6% of U.S.

• 7.7% of Iowans 65 and over– 9.5% of U.S.

Sources: Census Bureau: Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates & 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Percent of Iowans in Poverty


Employment & Workforce

Employment by County Type

Sources: Iowa Workforce Development

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Metro Adjacent to a Metro Rural

Change in Employment by County Type

Sources: Iowa Workforce Development

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Rural Adjacent to a Metro Metro

Where Workers Live

Sources: Census Bureau: Local Employment Dynamics Program

Where Jobs are Located


Iowa & Industry Worker Characteristics

Iowa

Credit Intermediation & Related Activities

Gender• % of Workforce Female 50.5% 65.6%

Race & Ethnicity• % of Workforce White 94.5% 94.7%• % of Workforce Black/African American 2.7% 2.1%• % of Workforce Hispanic/Latino 4.2% 2.6%

Education• % with High School or less 39.2% 29.2%• % with Some college or AA 34.1% 35.7%• % with BA or above 26.8% 35.1%


Age of Workforce

14-24; 10.8%

25-34; 27.3%

35-44; 22.1%

45-54; 22.0%

55-64; 14.5%

65+; 3.3%

Iowa

14-24; 15.0%

25-34; 21.0%

35-44; 20.0%45-54; 23.3%

55-64; 16.2%

65+; 4.5%

Credit Intermediation & Related Activities


Percentage of Industry Workers By Age

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

13.4%

10.4%

26.2%

27.6%27.0%

20.3%

22.0%

10.5%

14.7%

2.6% 3.3%

14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 65+

Occupational Employment by Minimum Education/Training Required

Sources: Iowa Workforce Development & EMSI

On-the-job training

Work experience in related occupation

Post-secondary vocational education

Associate degree

Bachelor’s degree

Bachelor’s or higher and some work experience

Advance degree

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

66.8%

5.7%

5.5%

4.1%

11.0%

3.5%

3.5%

62.8%

6.4%

5.3%

4.4%

12.7%

4.4%

4.0%

62.4%

10.4%

0.2%

1.0%

16.8%

8.7%

0.5%

IndustryU.S.

Iowa

Occupational Employment by Minimum Education/Training Required

Sources: Iowa Workforce Development & EMSI

On-the-job training

Work experience in related occupation

Post-secondary vocational education

Associate degree

Bachelor’s degree

Bachelor’s or higher and some work experience

Advanced Degree

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

64.5%

5.8%

5.1%

4.6%

12.4%

3.8%

3.9%

70.9%

5.6%

5.9%

3.2%

8.7%

3.0%

2.6%

70.1%

5.5%

6.1%

3.6%

8.8%

3.0%

2.8%

Rural

Adjacent to a Metro

Metros

Things to Ponder

• Impacts of demographic shifts?• K-12 Education?• QOL and Social Issues?• Government, Public Policy & Politics?

• How to address the “mismatches?”• Location of jobs v. Location of people• Location of our customers• Type of Occupations v. Skills of labor pool

Things to Ponder

• What happens when the economy turns around?

• Over 20% of workers age 55+• Geography of growth & development?

Useful Resources

• U.S. Census Bureau– Decennial Census– American Community Survey– Local Employment Dynamics– www.census.gov

• Iowa Workforce Development– Labor Market Information– http://iwin.iwd.state.ia.us/iowa/OlmisZine

http://www.census.gov/

http://iwin.iwd.state.ia.us/iowa/OlmisZine

http://iwin.iwd.state.ia.us/iowa/OlmisZine

Useful Resources

• State Data Center of Iowa– ww.iowadatacenter.org

• Regional Economics & Community Analysis Program (RECAP) at Iowa State– 2010 Census Profiles: county & cities– Retail Trade Analysis Reports: county & cities– www.recap.iastate.edu/

Questions?

Drew Conrad, CEcDThe Institute for Decision MakingThe University of Northern Iowa

[email protected]

www.bcs.uni.edu/idm

mailto:[email protected]

the impact of iowa’s changing demographic on workforce and economic development

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