the impact of mathematics on defence policy
TRANSCRIPT
IMA Mathematics 2012
‘The Impact of Mathematics on Defence Policy’
James Moffat, Senior Fellow, Dstl
©Crown Copyright 2012. Published with the permission of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
• Life is just Chemistry (James Watson)• Chemistry is just Physics (Neils Bohr)• Physics is just Mathematics (Paul Dirac)
1 May 2023
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
Strategic Defence & Security Review
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
The Strategic Defence & Security Review - SDSR
• SDSR background• Analysis supporting policy• Some observations
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
National Security Strategy
Strategic Defence and Security Review
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
• Strategic Context• Britain’s Distinctive Role• National Security Risk Assessment• ‘Adaptable Britain’
– Retain a broad spectrum of security and defence capabilities– Strengthen relationships with key allies– Coordinate and integrate whole of Government response
National Security Strategy
Our Key Customers
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
1 May 2023
SDSR Support
PR11
“Detail”
Synthesis
ImplementationCSR
Policy Choices
Capability Choices
SDSR White Paper “Headlines”
20 Oct 2010
Work strands
Ideas
Jan 2011
Advice and analysis to support work
strands
Synthesising work strand ideas.
Force structure risk assessment
Advice to mitigate risks and support implementation
General Election May 2010
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
• A range of mixes of defence capabilities and costs were rapidly analysed in near real time direct with key decision-makers
• This enabled best choices to be made within financial constraints
• Negotiations with Treasury reduced savings target from 10-20% to 7.5%
Key Impacts of Analysis
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Homeland Influence Intervention Stabilisation
Matching Resource to Aspiration
Increasing
Levels of
Ambition
Policy Choices – Prioritise capabilities to achieve affordability
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Force Structure Cost - Projected defence budget in 2020
Steady State 2 Annual CompoundedEquipment Procurement (Aerospace) 0.0% 0%
#Equipment Procurement (Other) 0.0% 0%
COO1 1 1
Equipment (Running Cost) 0.0% 0%
COO2 1 1 Personnel 0.0% 0%
Other 0.0% 0%
COO3 1 1
Annual CompoundedOverhead Deflator 0.0% 0% 100
Top Herrick
3rd Standing Commitments 1
Harmony 2 TRUE 2nd COO 3
DPA data is available. 31 Base Overheads 1
Force Structure Cost Visualisation ToolUNCLASSIFIED
Overheads
Standing Commitments
Defence Planning Assumptions (DPAs) Cost Pressures
Strategy Management
Graph Legend Order TablesGraph
0
20
40
60
80
now 0 0 0 0 futureC
ost
Overheads COO Standing Commitments
Flat Real Flat Cash -14%
NoneSmall ScaleMedium Scale
Non-Enduring
NoneSmall ScaleMedium Scale
Non-Enduring
NoneSmall Scale
Non-Enduring
1 in x 1 in y
Auto-updateUpdate Graph
R
R
R
R
R
R
R
Enduring
Enduring
Enduring
Available?
Reset all DPAs
High Level SummaryR
Overheads
COO
Standing Commitments
Medium Scale
‘Fast Analysis’: Policy Assumptions, Costs and Capabilities
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
• will be sized and shaped to conduct Standing Commitments plus:• an enduring stabilisation operation • one non-enduring complex intervention• one non-enduring simple intervention
Chosen by National Security Council from 3 affordable
postures developed by fast analysis
Set at 2 interventions after analysis showed
that 3 were unaffordable and
unlikely historically
Analysis helped inform the development of Defence Planning Assumptions
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Analysis supported the development of Future Force 2020
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
• Scenario-based analysis generated insights into force requirements
• Force structure analysis highlighted differences between ‘ideal’ force and 2015 post-Afghanistan force
• Generated three coherent force structures for 10% and 20% savings levels
• Tested forces emerging from Senior Decision Maker discussion
• Informed VCDS Senior Judgement Panel debates on the value of major force elements
Analysis supported the development of Future Force 2020
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Output Evolution
• Increasing number of levels of information– From Whole Force Structure, Capability Packages / Areas, down to Force Elements
• Increasing range of tailored communication methods– Including; handouts, interactive briefings, supported desk level discussions, memos
• Increasing amount of interaction – From set handout or brief to interactive briefs holding a depth of information as required.
Impact of possible Policy
ChoicesCapability Audit
Risks
Impact of PR11
Measures
Cost Effectivenes
s of Force Elements
Post SDSR Post SDSR with PR11 Measures
Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 1 Epoch 2
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO
Capability Packages
Force Structure
2010 2015 2020RISK 1RISK 2RISK 3
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Whew!
Presented to Parliament
by the Prime Minister
by Command of Her Majesty
October 2010
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Output Evolution
• Increasing number of levels of information– From Whole Force Structure, Capability Packages / Areas, down to Force Elements
• Increasing range of tailored communication methods– Including; handouts, interactive briefings, supported desk level discussions, memos
• Increasing amount of interaction – From set handout or brief to interactive briefs holding a depth of information as required.
Impact of possible Policy
ChoicesCapability Audit
Risks
Impact of PR11
Measures
Cost Effectivenes
s of Force Elements
Post SDSR Post SDSR with PR11 Measures
Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 1 Epoch 2
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO
Capability Packages
Force Structure
2010 2015 2020RISK 1RISK 2RISK 3
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Introduction
• StratBoi provides evidence to inform Senior Decision Makers on adjusting the balance of funding between capability areas
– Has been providing independent, auditable and coherent evidence, since 2009
– Draws from the breadth of MOD’s analysis programme
Given what the UK Defence wants to be able to do…
What is the most cost effective mix of capabilities to do this?
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
Defence Policy
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
Tasks
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
Constraints
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
System Option Costs
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
Sufficient Force Structure
at Minimum Cost
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
StratBoi Analysis - Method SCENARIOS
CAMPAIGNS
EFFECTS
TASKS
SYSTEM OPTIONS
ENABLER OPTIONS
OPTIMISATION
‘OPTIMUM’ FORCE POOL
SYSTEM AVAILABILITY
CONCURRENCY REQUIREMENTS
COSTS
Defence Policy Iteration
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
1 May 2023
At the heart of StratBoi is a Mixed Integer Linear Programme
• The Linear Programme generates cost-effective force mixes• Approach
– Provide a clear and auditable relationship between Policy, Capabilities and the Force Structure
– Minimise total cost subject to constraints on task effectiveness– Iterate
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Crown Copyright Dstl 2011
Example Output: Comparison by Domain
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Output Evolution
• Increasing number of levels of information– From Whole Force Structure, Capability Packages / Areas, down to Force Elements
• Increasing range of tailored communication methods– Including; handouts, interactive briefings, supported desk level discussions, memos
• Increasing amount of interaction – From set handout or brief to interactive briefs holding a depth of information as required.
Impact of possible Policy
ChoicesCapability Audit
Risks
Impact of PR11
Measures
Cost Effectivenes
s of Force Elements
Post SDSR Post SDSR with PR11 Measures
Epoch 1 Epoch 2 Epoch 1 Epoch 2
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNO
Capability Packages
Force Structure
2010 2015 2020RISK 1RISK 2RISK 3
Some Personal Reflections
Not necessarily reflecting the views of either Dstl or MoD
1 May 2023
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Analysis Interventions
1 May 2023
Messes Problems Puzzles
Interventions
Solution(s)
Typically, problem structuring support, SME workshops etc
Typically via the production of models, methods and other
repeatable approaches
1 2
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
Traditional war fighting analysis is well covered
Abridged extract
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Cyber is a newly emerging analysis area, and a key future requirement
Abridged extract
© Dstl 2011Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence
1 May 2023
Questions?