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The Impact of MetrologyIn the economy, industrial companies and quality of life

António CruzDirector

Metrology Departament

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Content• Introduction

– Basic concepts• The impact in economy

– Some examples of today– Transaction costs– Needs for tomorrow

• The impact for industrial companies– The competitiveness of some sectors

• The impact in the quality of life– Health – Environment – Food – Market reliability

• The European policy– Some examples

• Measuring the impossible

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Introduction. Some famous quotations

“Measure what is measurable and make measurable what isn’t”

Descartes (1526-1650)

“ When you can measure what you speak about and express it in numbers, you know something about it; but when you can’t measure it, when you can’t express it in numbers your knowledge is poor and

unsatisfactory by nature”

Lord Kelvin (1824-1907)

“Intelligence is what my test measures”

Alfred Binet (1853-1911)

So you only really know what you can measure…

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Introduction. Basic concepts• Metrology – science of measurement

• Measurement result – set of obtained values together with other relevant information

• Uncertainty –parameter that characterizes the dispersion of values

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One typical example:There are no measuring instruments with zero error along all the indication interval !

MPE

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Impact in the economy

?How to put metrology at the economy service:- to make it grow- to reduce waste- to quantify the absence of timetable decisions

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How to measure?

Some examples of daily use:

• Natural gas• Electricity• Fuel• Water• Others

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Natural gas Anual sales: 5 638 Mm3

Distribution – Maximum permissible error (Qmáx, class 1,5): 1,5 %Quantity: 84,57 Mm3

Value: 2,8 M€

Domestic - Maximum permissible error (Qmáx, class 1): 1,0 %Quantity: 56,38 Mm3

Value: 1,8 M€

Source: Relatório e Contas 2008, Galp Energia

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Fuel Anual sales (refined products): 16 Mt

Tanks - Maximum permissible error : 0,5 %Quantity: 80 ktValue (fuel represents 50%): 85 M€

Distribution - Maximum permissible error : 0,5 %Quantity: 80 ktValue (fuel represents 50%): 85 M€Source: Relatório e Contas 2008, Galp Energia

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ElectricityAnnual sales: 94 GWh

Domestic - Maximum permissible error (class A): 3,5%Quantity: 3 288 GWhValue: 398 M€

Source: Dados-chave, EDP 2008

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Annual sales EPAL(*): 211,3 Mm3

Domestic - Maximum permissible error (Q3): 2 %Quantity: 4 ,2 Mm3

Value: 2,8 M€

Total loss/Pumped water 12,6 %Value (at sales price): 17,7 M€

Source: Relatório e Contas 2008, EPAL

Water

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Consumption of water supply(*): 161 L/hab.dayAnnual consumption (Portugal): 588 GLValue (**): 1 352 M€

Domestic - Maximum permissible error (Q3): 2 %Value: 27 M€(*) Source: EUROSTAT, quoted in Estudo AQUAPOR, Nov. 2009(**) Lower consumption (<5m3), 0,0023€/L

Water

Total loss/Pumped water (***) 32 %Value: 433 M€(***) Estimation INAG

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MilkProduction (2008): 2 077 MLMaximum permissible error(Classe O,5) 0,5 %Value (0,2624 €/L na UE): 27 M€

WineProduction (2008): 541 MLError 0,5 %Value (at 1 €/L): 27 M€

Source: INE

Other economical sectors

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Sulphur in fossile fuels

In the USA, Certification of NIST SRMs for sulfur in fossil fuels uses a definitive method, developed at NIST, that virtually eliminates bias and significantly reduces the measurement uncertainty …which translates to improved production efficiency:

Benefit-Cost Ratio 113Social Rate of Return 1 056%Net Present Value $409M

Source: Hratch Semerjian, Economic Impact of NMI Metrology Programs, Chief Scientist (Retired), NIST, Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009

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Simple conclusion of the examples:• Metrology investments have a fast returnBut two major questions are in our minds:• Metrological Risk analysis?

– Anyone does?

• Cost/Benefit of investments in metrology?– Do we account the macroeconomic effects?

Impact in the economy

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Impact in industrial companiesIf you measure better there are some intuitive impacts:

- Reduction of production costs- Reduction of waste- Increase of interchangeability- Reduction of technical assistance after sales- Increase of competitiveness- Increase of customer satisfaction

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Need to balance

Full autonomy:Investments with exponential costs with accuracy, maintenance and technical expertise

Reasonable autonomy:Subcontracting,outsourcing at the national metrology network

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Source: Erik Wijkström, Technical Barriers to Trade and the WTO, Counselor, Trade and Environment Division, World Trade Organization (WTO / OMC)Technical Barriers to Trade and the WTO, Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009,

TENDENCIES IN THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

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Impact in marketingCharles Babbage(*) (1835): measurement reduces “costs of verification”

Nowadays it is well recognised in theory of market economics that the “transaction costs“ are determinant for the price of the products:

Transaction costs: the friction in the marketAs transaction costs fall, trade increases. How does measurement reduce

transaction costs?• Reduces risk and uncertainty in transactions• Reduces communication/verification costsMeasurement infrastructure is an institution that builds confidence• Having a local measurement infrastructure reduces costs for companies

(*) inventor of the first mechanical calculator

(**) Peter Swann, Prof. Nottingham University Business School, UK, 2009

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Impact in the competitiveness

Source: Hratch Semerjian, Chief Scientist (Retired), NIST,Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009

Metrology is a kind of seal stamped in the passport of products placed in the markets. Why?

• Certification requires tests• Tests must be performed with calibrated equipment

• Calibration must be performed by accredited laboratories with traceability to the SI

Conclusion:MEASUREMENTS IN COMPANIES MUST BE TRACEABLE TO THE SI

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Traceability in Portugal

Padrões Nacionais

LNM

SI

Padrões

das Unidades

BIPM

Medições correntes-Utilizadores Finais

Padrões ReferênciaLaboratórios Acreditados

Padrões Industriais-Empresas

Padrões ReferênciaLaboratórios acreditados

Medições correntes – Utilizadores finais

Padrões Industriais - Empresas

Í APLICADA

SistemaPortuguês

da Qualidade

Subsistemada Normalização

Subsistemada Metrologia

Subsistemada QualificaçãoPadrões

InternacionaisBIPM

PadrõesNacionaisLNM

Acreditação

APLICADA

ControloMetrológico

LEGALCIENTÍFICA

The CIPM/MRA

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One example of an international comparisonCCQM P73: NO gas standards (30 – 70) µmol/mol

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At national levelRELACRE organises, together with IPQ in calibration field, programs of interlaboratory comparisons, that are a mandatory requirement for accredited laboratories

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P a q u ím e tr o An a ló g ic o

In d ic a ç ã o p a r a l= 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 m m

2 9 9 , 9

29 9 , 9 2

29 9 , 9 4

29 9 , 9 6

29 9 , 9 8

3 0 0

30 0 , 0 2

30 0 , 0 4

30 0 , 0 6

V a lo r re f L 1 L 2 L 3 L 4 L 5 L 6

L a b o r a tó r i o s

ind

icação

(m

m)

P a q u ím e tro D ig ita l

In d ic a ç ã o p a ra l= 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 m m

2 9 9 , 9 2

2 9 9 , 9 4

2 9 9 , 9 6

2 9 9 , 9 8

3 0 0 , 0 0

3 0 0 , 0 2

3 0 0 , 0 4

3 0 0 , 0 6

3 0 0 , 0 8

V a lo r re f L 1 L 2 L 3 L 4 L 5 L 6

L a b o r a tó r i o s

ind

icação

(m

m)

One example of a national comparison

Analogic caliper

Digital caliper

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One case: gas certification

In the USA, the Economic Impact of the Gas-Mixture program:

Users Impacted:

•Specialty Gas Companies

•End Users: Electric Utilities, Transportation Equipment Firms, Petrochemical Firms, Commercial Labs, Government Agencies

Results:

Social Rate of Return 225%

Benefit to Cost Ratio 24:1

Net Present Value $56M

Source: Hratch Semerjian, Chief Scientist (Retired), NIST, Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009

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Today and tomorrow needsNanotechnologies

Biotechnologies

Certified Reference Materials

New materials engineering

Information technlogy

Transportation sector (automobile aeronautics, aerospacial)

Optics

Semiconductors, electronics, communications

Chemical industries, pharmaceutics

Health

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In quality of life

Impact in:•Health• Environment • Food•Market reliability

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In health

Source: Hratch Semerjian, Chief Scientist (Retired), NIST, apresentado no Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009

In the EUA, health costs represent 16% of GDP, 1,2Bilion €

In Portugal, represent6% of GDP, 9 000 M€

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One exemple: in radiotherapy

Treatment delivery combined standard uncertainties < 3.5 %Secondary standards combined standard uncertainties <1.5 %Primary standards combined standard uncertainties <1.0 %

Primary standards at 60Co agree to 0.5 % but at high energies…

Source: P. J. Allisy-Roberts, BIPM, 2008 30 / 39

Another example: the cholesterol

In the USA, the reduction of the uncertainty in 50 years from 24% to 3%, because the almost elimination of false positives and negatives, allow:- social rate of return 154%, - benefit to cost ratio 4,5:1- annual savings 3,5 M USD

and- How many lives were lost caused by wrong medication or lack of medication?

Fonte: Hratch Semerjian, Chief Scientist (Retired), NIST, Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009

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Fonte: Hratch Semerjian, Chief Scientist (Retired), NIST, Symposium Celebrating 10th Anniversary of the CIPM /MRA, October 8-9, 2009

In quality of life (environment)

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In quality of life (food)

Note: ug=µg

Comparison between EU, USA and Codex standards

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In quality of life

The role of legal metrology(commercial transactions, safety, energy economy, environment, health, taxes)

From daily life measurements till the highest level of traceability: one example

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A gas pump in a highway station is traceable to the prototype of the kilogram in Sèvres!

– a gas pump verified•the new seal

– a verification– the measures under calibration– the calibration of the balance– the calibration of the weights up to the national kg prototype– the national prototype is calibrated each 10 years against the international kg prototype

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Another example: the pressure is transversal

• Pressure vessels• Road safety• Tire economy• Divers safety• Oxygen administration• Blood and eye pressure• Etc.

In quality of life

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Quality of life: work in progressThe BIPM and the OIML are working with several

inter-governmental agencies to find the right answers to the metrology needs in their fields:

• Climate change and atmospheric pollution (WMO)

• Medicine and clinical chemistry (WHO, IFCC)

• Food safety (Codex Alimentarius)

• Anti-doping control (WADA)

• Forensic activities (IAFS, ENFSI)

• Pharmaceutical (Pharmacopeia)

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The European answer - the Lisbon strategy

• BREATH ANALYSIS (Breath analysis as a diagnostic tool for early disease detection)

• BRACHYTHERAPY (Increasing cancer treatment efficacy using 3D brachytherapy)

• e-Mass (The watt balance route towards a new definition of the kilogram)

• REUNIAM (Redefinition of the SI base unit ampere)• NANOTRACE (New Traceability Routes for Nanometrology)• Power&Energy (Next generation of power and energy measuring techniques)

EMRP: Budget up to 600 M€38 / 39

“Measuring the impossible”• Food industry: combining physical and chemical analysis with

empirical psychometric studies to get systematic understanding on the ways the physical world can adopt to simulate the process of the sensations in human mind

• Automobile industry, telecommunications and health services are trying to understand the way to measure with objectivity the perceived quality of their offer

• There is a believe that animal sensors are applicable to a variety of measurement problems, in particular the cross-modal interaction of senses

• The new understanding emerging from neuroscience and biometrics has an obvious contribution and should be exploited.

Global budget of program MINET

10 M€ (6-8 projects de 1.5 M€ each)

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Thanks for your attention

António Cruzacruz@mail.ipq.pt