the impact of nafta in mexican trade and investment...

TheThe ImpactImpact ofof NAFTA in Mexican NAFTA in Mexican TradeTrade andand InvestmentInvestment FlowsFlows

Dr. Gustavo Vega CánovasDr. Gustavo Vega CánovasCentro de Estudios InternacionalesCentro de Estudios Internacionales

El Colegio de MéxicoEl Colegio de México

Mexican Mexican exportsexports 19851985--20082008((billionsbillions dollarsdollars))

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

35000019

93

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

51,83251,832

166,120166,120

292,636292,636

SourceSource: : SecretarySecretary ofof thethe EconomyEconomy withwith data data fromfrom Mexico’s Central Mexico’s Central BankBank

MexicoMexico--USUS--CanadaCanada TradeTrade 19931993--20082008((millionsmillions ofof dollarsdollars))

0100200300400500600700800900

100019

93

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

México-CanadáMéxico-EEUUComercio Trilateral

SourceSource: : SecretarySecretary ofof thethe Economy wity data from Banxico, USDOC and Statistics CanadaEconomy wity data from Banxico, USDOC and Statistics Canada

Mexico Mexico –– Canada trade 1993Canada trade 1993--2008 2008 (billions (billions ofof dollarsdollars))

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Importaciones

Exportaciones

Comercio Total

Balanza comercial

Note: The imports used were reported from each country.Source: Secretary of the Economy with data from Banxico and Statistics Canada

Mexico Mexico –– U.S. trade 1993U.S. trade 1993--20082008((thousandsthousands))

-50000000

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

400000000

45000000019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2007

2008

ExportacionesImportacionesComercio TotalBalanza Comercial

Note: The imports used were reported from each country.Source: Secretary of the Economy with data from Banxico and USDOC.

U.S. U.S. importsimports fromfrom Mexico Mexico andandLatinLatin America 1993America 1993--20082008

((billionsbillions ofof dollarsdollars))

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

México América Latina

SourceSource: : USDOCUSDOC

U.S. U.S. importsimports fromfrom Mexico Mexico andand otherothercountriescountries 19931993--20082008

((billionsbillions ofof dollarsdollars))


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Taiwán

Corea del Sur

Gran Bretaña

México

China

20081993

FDI in Mexico by FDI in Mexico by sectorssectors19941994--20052005

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Otros servicios

ServiciosFinancierosTransportes yComunicacionesComercio

Construcción

Electricidad yAguaIndustriamanufactureraExtractivo

Agropecuario

SourceSource: : SecretarySecretary ofof thethe EconomyEconomy

MexicoMexico, FDI % , FDI % ofof GDPGDP

0

1

2

3

4

5

619

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Porc

enta

jes

MUNDOTLCAN

SourceSource: : SecretarySecretary ofof thethe EconomyEconomy

ProductionProduction ofof lightlight vehiclesvehicles in in MexicoMexico 19981998--20082008((thousandsthousands ofof unitsunits))

SourceSource: Carillo, 2006. : Carillo, 2006. ForFor yearsyears 2007 2007 andand 2008 2008 MexicanMexican AssociationAssociation ofof thethe AutomobileAutomobileIndustryIndustry. .

AutopartsAutoparts productionproduction in in MexicoMexico19941994--20082008

((millionsmillions ofof dollarsdollars))

SourceSource: : NationalNational IndustryIndustry ofof AutopartsAutoparts

* Data * Data untiluntil novembernovember ofof 2008.2008.

MexicanMexican textiletextile exportsexports toto U.SU.S andandCanadaCanada 19921992--2008 2008 ((millionsmillions ofof dollarsdollars))

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Note: The imports used were reported from each country.Source: USDOC and Statistics Canada

MexicanMexican electronicelectronic exportsexports toto US US andand CanadaCanada 19921992--20082008


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Note: The imports used were reported from each country.Source: USDOC and Statistics Canada

Total Total MexicanMexican ExportsExports toto thethe US US ofofAdvancedAdvanced TechnologyTechnology ProductsProducts


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2002 2005 2006 2007 2008


Electoral Electoral ResultsResults by State in by State in thethe 2000 2000 PresidentialPresidential ElectionElection

Electoral Electoral ResultsResults by State in by State in thethe2006 2006 PresidentialPresidential ElectionElection

Source: López Córdoba, José Ernesto. “Globalización, Economía y Elecciones.” suplemento Enfoque diario Reforma. México, DF., 20 de agosto 2006.

TradeTrade liberalizationliberalization andand electionselections

Preferential Margin of the 2006 Presidential ElectionAs a percentage of the total voting of each State

States won by PAN States won by PRD

Source: López Córdoba, José Ernesto. “Globalización, Economía y Elecciones.”suplemento Enfoque diario Reforma. México, DF., 20 de agosto 2006.


Gross Estate Product per Capita, 1993-2004According to electoral preferences in 2006



Growth of employment and electoral polarization



Trade liberalization and growth of manufacturingemployment by State


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