The Impact of State Elections on Women Legislators

Kira SanbonmatsuThe Ohio State University

2,217 women ran in 20042,228 women ran in 2000

Women will be 22.5% of state legislators

Women were 22.5% of state legislators

2004 ELECTIONS

Source: CAWP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Per

cen

tage

of

Wom

enWomen in Statewide Elective Executive Office, 1971 to 2005

Source: CAWP

0

5

10

15

20

25

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percentage of Women in Congress, 1971 to 2005

Source: CAWP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percentage of Women State Legislators, 1971 to 2005

Source: CAWP

Number of Women Legislators by Party

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Democratic women Republican women

Source: CAWP

Women as Percentage of Each Party’s Legislators

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Democratic women Republican women

Source: CAWP

Women’s underrepresentation is not due to lack of voter support

But to the scarcity of women candidates

When Women Run, Women Win

Source: Seltzer, Newman, and Leighton 1997

11.0%9.9%Challengers

51.0%54.2%Open seat*

92.6%94.4%Incumbents*

Democratic

10.9%9.5%Challengers

54.2%51.8%Open seat

94.8%93.1%Incumbents*

RepublicanWomenMen

Success Rates in House Races, 1986-1994

Women’s Representation

• Incumbency• Eligibility pool• Pipeline• Family responsibilities• Gender stereotypes• Socialization• Role models

Why are women more likely to serve in some

states than others?

• Turnover• Eligibility pool• Public opinion• Full-time legislatures• Stronger parties

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Percentage of Women State Legislators, 1971 to 2005

Source: CAWP

Percentage of Law Degrees Going to Women

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Source: National Center for Education Statistics

Are term limits the solution?

In about 40% of all house seats vacateddue to term limits in 1998 and 2000:

Women did not enter the primary

Source: Carroll and Jenkins 2001

Candidate Recruitment

Recruitment for the LegislatureRecruitment for the Legislature

• Party• Interest groups• Friends, family• Co-workers• Women’s groups

Ohio 2002 State Legislative Candidate Survey

All Men Women It was entirely my idea

37% 39% 28% I had already seriously thought about running when someone else suggested it

23% 25% 17%

I had not seriously thought about running until it was suggested by:

friends, family, co-worker and/or acquaintances

9% 9% 10%

association or organization

3% 3% 3% party officials and/or legislative leaders

27% 23% 41% local elected officials

1% 2% 0% N = 143; N (men) = 114; N (women) = 29.

The Decision to Run for the Legislature

Source: Sanbonmatsu

Ohio 2002 State Legislative Candidate Survey

All Men Women It was entirely my idea

37% 39% 28% I had already seriously thought about running when someone else suggested it

23% 25% 17%

I had not seriously thought about running until it was suggested by:

friends, family, co-worker and/or acquaintances

9% 9% 10%

association or organization

3% 3% 3% party officials and/or legislative leaders

27% 23% 41% local elected officials

1% 2% 0% N = 143; N (men) = 114; N (women) = 29.

The Decision to Run for the Legislature

Source: Sanbonmatsu

Party Recruitment of Candidates

• Over 60% of legislative caucuses and state parties recruit candidates for many, if not all, house seats

• More than half of party leaders are assisted by part-time or full-time staff

Source: Sanbonmatsu

2002 SURVEYS

• Massachusetts Women’s Political Caucus

• Lillian’s List (in NC)

• Jo Ann Davidson Leadership Institute (in OH)

• Committee to Elect Republican Women (in NC)

• Iowa’s Women in Public Policy (WIPP)

Women’s Groups

• Positive, negative• Issue positions• Issue competency• Personality traits

Gender Stereotypes

Gender Stereotypes

“Now I’m going to read a list of issues. Please tell me who you think would probably do a better job of handling these issues in Congress: a man or a woman…”

“Who do you think would do a better job of handling foreign affairs?”

67%15%18%Likely to

support

legal

abortion

70%18%12%Support

more govt

services

57%35%9%More

honest

17%27%55%Foreign

affairs

WomanNeutralMan

Gender Stereotypes

Source: Sanbonmatsu

OHIO SURVEY 2002

46%21%33%Change

politics as

usual

21%28%51%Dealing

with crime

problem

42%36%23%Protecting

Social

Security

WomanNeutralMan

Gender Stereotypes

Source: Sanbonmatsu 2002

OHIO SURVEY 2000

Conclusion

• The level of women’s representation in the legislatures will remain the same

• Democratic women legislators continue to outnumber Republican women

• More recruitment is needed

NOTE: CAWP stands for the Center for American Women and Politics, Eagleton Institute of Politics, Rutgers University. Note that statistics on 2004 women candidates and 2005 women legislators are preliminary as of December 2004.

Works Cited

Carroll, Susan J. Forthcoming. “Women and the 2004 Elections: An Analysis of Statewide and State Legislative Election Results.” Spectrum: The Journal of State Government.

Carroll, Susan J., and Krista Jenkins. 2001. “Unrealized Opportunity? Term Limits and the Representation of Women in State Legislatures.” Women & Politics 23 (4): 1-30.

Moncrief, Gary F., Peverill Squire, and Malcolm E. Jewell. 2001. Who Runs for the Legislature? Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.

National Conference of State Legislatures. 2004. “Women in State Legislatures 2005.”<www.ncsl.org/programs/wln/2004ElectionInfo.htm>

Sanbonmatsu, Kira. N.d. Where Women Run: Gender and Party in the American States. Manuscript.

Sanbonmatsu, Kira. 2002. “Gender Stereotypes and Vote Choice.” American Journal of Political Science46 (January): 20-34.

Seltzer, Richard A., Jody Newman, and Melissa Vorhees Leighton. 1997. Sex as a Political Variable: Women as Candidates & Voters in U.S. Elections. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.

U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. Digest of Education Statistics, 2003. Table 259. <http://www.nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d03/list_tables.asp>.