The impacts of climate change on the The impacts of climate change on the endangered species : vulnerability and endangered species : vulnerability and

adaptation in Chinaadaptation in China

Wu, JianguoWu, Jianguowujg@craes.org.cnwujg@craes.org.cn

Climate change center,Climate change center,Chinese academy of environmental sciencesChinese academy of environmental sciences

March 30,2009March 30,2009Climate change and biodiversityClimate change and biodiversity

Bonn, GermanyBonn, Germany

OutlineOutline•• Climate changeClimate change•• Climate change and biodiversityClimate change and biodiversity•• Impacts of climate change on endangered Impacts of climate change on endangered

species in Chinaspecies in China•• Adaptation to climate change for the Adaptation to climate change for the

biodiversitybiodiversity• Conclusion and suggestion

Observed Global Climate Change

IPCC(2007)

Global Climate Change Scenarios

IPCC(2007)

Tem

pera

ture

Ano

mal

y (C

)

(Wang et al.,2002)

The surface temperature in China has been increasing since the lThe surface temperature in China has been increasing since the last century. ast century. The longThe long--term warming trend is similar to the global average.term warming trend is similar to the global average.The warming in winter is the most significant. The maximum warmThe warming in winter is the most significant. The maximum warming was ing was found in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China.found in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China.

19511951--20012001年中国平均气温变化趋势年中国平均气温变化趋势 19561956--20022002年中国年降水量变化趋势年中国年降水量变化趋势

Change in Surface Temperature Change in Surface Temperature annual annual precipitationprecipitation in China for Past 50 Yearsin China for Past 50 Years

Future Climate Change Scenarios In China

XU YING LONG

Annual AnnualAnnual Annual

Winter WinterWinter Winter

Summer SummerSummer Summer

Temperature precipitationTemperature precipitation

The rate and magnitude of climate change will affect biodiversity either directly or in combination with the drivers other factors.

Biodiversity and climate changeBiodiversity and climate change

• There is more evidence, from a wider range of species and communities in terrestrial ecosystems than reported in the TAR, that recent warming is already strongly affecting natural biological systems. There is substantial new evidence relating changes in marine and freshwater systems to warming. The evidence suggests that both terrestrial and marine biological systems are now being strongly influenced by observed recent warming .

• Biodiversity will be affected by climate change and seaBiodiversity will be affected by climate change and sea--level rise, with an increased level rise, with an increased risk of extinction of some species. Significant disruptions to erisk of extinction of some species. Significant disruptions to ecosystems from cosystems from disturbances (e.g., fire, insect outbreaks) are expected to incrdisturbances (e.g., fire, insect outbreaks) are expected to increase and changes in ease and changes in climate could also increase the probability of abrupt, nonclimate could also increase the probability of abrupt, non--linear changes in many linear changes in many ecosystems. [IPCC Synthesis Report 2001] ecosystems. [IPCC Synthesis Report 2001]

• Roughly 20-30% (varying among regional biotas from 1% to 80%) of species assessed so far (in an unbiased sample) are likely to be at increasingly high risk of extinction if global mean temperatures exceed 2-3°C above pre-industrial levels .

• The resilience of many ecosystems (their ability to adapt naturally) is likely to be exceeded by 2100 by an unprecedented combination of change in climate, associated disturbances (e.g., wildfire, insects), and other global change drivers. (IPCC,2007)

Plant species diversity Animal species diversity

The distribution of plant species diversity index of forest ecoThe distribution of plant species diversity index of forest ecosystem in Chinasystem in China

It is very plentiful in biodiversity in China ,and there are manIt is very plentiful in biodiversity in China ,and there are many endangered species.y endangered species.

Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution Understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species is of species is particularly important mainly because existing conservation netwparticularly important mainly because existing conservation network and ork and theoretically selected areas will not perform adequately if not theoretically selected areas will not perform adequately if not taking into taking into

account of change of species distributions following climate chaaccount of change of species distributions following climate change .nge .

The impacts of climate change on the endangered The impacts of climate change on the endangered plants in China (A2 splants in China (A2 scenario))

1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080, 2081-2100 1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080, 2081-2100 1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080, 2081-2100

Tetraena mongolica miaxim

Cornulaca alaschanica tsien

Kaschgaria brachanthemoides

Ammopiptanthus nanus

Artemisia sphaerocephala Stilpnolepis

centiflora

Dipteronia sinensis

Chinese tulip tree

Epehdra lepidosperma

Kingdoniauniflora balf

Picea neoveitchii

mast

Abies chensiensis

Sabina przewalskii

•• Climate change would cause a changing in Climate change would cause a changing in distribution of plantsdistribution of plants

•• some species would enlarge their distribution some species would enlarge their distribution

•• some would decrease the distributionsome would decrease the distribution

•• many would change the spatial patternmany would change the spatial pattern

The impacts of climate change on the animal distribution in ChinThe impacts of climate change on the animal distribution in China a (A2 and B2 (A2 and B2 sscenarios))

Tibetan bear

Snow leopard

Wild yak

Wild Bactrian camel

1991-2020 2021-2050 2051-2080 2081-2100 1991-2020 2021-2050 2051-2080 2081-2100

kiangGazella

subgutturodsa

Stone marten

Asiatic black bear

Stone marten

Climate change would cause changing in distribution of Climate change would cause changing in distribution of endangered animalendangered animal

Some animal would enlarge the distribution Some animal would enlarge the distribution

Some would decrease the distributionSome would decrease the distribution

Many would change the spatial patternMany would change the spatial pattern

The impacts of climate change on species diversity

species diversity under Baseline scenario

species diversity under A２

scenario in 1991－2020 year period

How to protect endangered species following climate change wouldHow to protect endangered species following climate change would be challenge for the conservation biodiversitybe challenge for the conservation biodiversity

The adaptation to climate change for The adaptation to climate change for biodiversity conservationbiodiversity conservation

• successful adaptation is an adjustment by an ecosystem or community to a new or changing environment without simplification or the loss of structure, functions and components.

• Adaptation activities may include scientific, technological, institutional, behavioral, political, financial, regulatory and, or individual adjustments.

National strategy of adaptation National strategy of adaptation to climate changeto climate change

•• Ecosystem and biodiversity adaptation to Ecosystem and biodiversity adaptation to climate change are important subject for the climate change are important subject for the National strategy of adaptation to climate National strategy of adaptation to climate change in Chinachange in China

The frame at different level of Biodiversity conservation adaptaThe frame at different level of Biodiversity conservation adaptation to tion to climate changeclimate change

Species

Ecosystem

VulnerabilityRegion ,landscape national level

conservation species in situ or in different place , genes conservation, plan of natural conservation

Conservation ,restoration and rebuilding of ecosystem

control water and soil losing , desertization and saline control

Climatic adaptation, the range of geography distribuaton,the population size

The Grade and risk of species dearth, extinction under the climate change

Adaptation strategiesstrategies and policy for conservation biodiversity

Understanding the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change

Assessment present conservation strategies and measures for potential adaptation strategies and measures for potential adaptation options: increasing resilience of nature reserve, networks of reoptions: increasing resilience of nature reserve, networks of reserve with connecting serve with connecting corridor, captive breeding, pest control, helping migrationcorridor, captive breeding, pest control, helping migration

Autonomous adjustments: dispersal and migration of species, resilience of ecosystem

Protected Areas: Buffering Nature against Climate Change ,World's Protected Areas Threatened By Climate Change

Protected area is important for adaptation of biodiversity to clProtected area is important for adaptation of biodiversity to climate changeimate change

There are many nature reserves at different There are many nature reserves at different level in China, management and program of level in China, management and program of the nature reserves at present are lack of the nature reserves at present are lack of considering about the impacts of climate considering about the impacts of climate change.change.

75 species protected by nature conserve under baseline scenario

75 species

protected by nature conserve in

1991-2020 year under A2 scenario

More world's protected territory is vulnerable to impacts of cliMore world's protected territory is vulnerable to impacts of climate changemate change

• Effective responses depend on an understanding of likely regional climatic and ecological changes.

• Monitoring environmental change, including climate, and associated ecosystem responses is vital to allow for adjustments in management strategies .

• Strategies to cope with climate change are beginning to be considered in conservation , and highlight the importance of planning guided by future climate scenarios.

• adaptation to climate change in the management objectives and strategies of conservation areas

• Expansion of reserve systems can potentially reduce the vulnerability of ecosystems to climate change

• Reserve systems may be designed with some consideration of long-term shifts in plant and animal distributions, natural disturbance regimes and the overall integrity of the protected species and ecosystems

•• Reducing existing threats to biodiversity to build resilience inReducing existing threats to biodiversity to build resilience into natural to natural systems and species, incorporation of climate change informationsystems and species, incorporation of climate change information into into management tools for biodiversity managers, assisting the naturamanagement tools for biodiversity managers, assisting the natural l adaptation of species and ecosystems through improved onadaptation of species and ecosystems through improved on--reserve and reserve and offoff

• Enlarge conservation areas where appropriate, Create and restore buffering zones and habitat mosaics around conservation areas

• Implement ex-situ conservation and translocation strategies

Adaptation to climate changeAdaptation to climate change

Ql lian mountain nature reserve

An xi nature reserve

Tai bai mountains nature reserve

Blue eared pheasant Wild house Giant panda

Climate change, protected area and biodiversity conservationClimate change, protected area and biodiversity conservation

11.30-12.1,2008,XI NING

An xi nature reserve

Gan su an xi national nature reserve

Shortleaf Anabasis transplant experiment

April 25,2008

Experiment of Endangered Species Ammopiptanthus mongolicus Maxim

2008年4月25日 2008年5月13日 2008年8月20日

May 13,2008 August 20,2008

In situ conservation endangered plant for adaptation to climate change

Ex situ conservation endangered plant for adaptation to climate change

保护区北片的

红砂＋黑柴荒漠

2008年9月 保护区北片的

霸王＋红砂荒漠

2008年9月

第一季度

第四季度第三季度

第二季度

•Monitoring climate, and associated species and ecosystem responses.

monitoring animal behavior for adaptation to climate change

监测岩羊

4月15日 10月17日

Monitoring Habitat of animal for adaptation to climate change

building livestock shed for adaptation of wild houseto extreme climate event

Artificial

supply fodder for adaptation of wild house to extreme climate event

building artificial watering trough foradaptation of wild house to climatic drought

restorationrestoration vegetationvegetation

protected habitatprotected habitat

monitoring species and ecosystem monitoring species and ecosystem

built built grate around grassland for the grate around grassland for the animalanimal

control forest firecontrol forest fire

for adaptation to climate change

Ql lian mountain nature reserves

Tai bai mountains nature reservemonitoring behavior of giant panda monitoring behavior of giant panda for adaptation to climate change

秦岭细鳞鲑

ex situ conservation Qinling lenok for adaptation to climate change

Species adaptation measurements to climate change序

号

名称 目前状态 脆弱性 气候变化后选择 脆

弱

性

可靠性

1 阿 拉 善 单

刺蓬

中国特有,已知分布

地点少于 10 个,种群

持续衰退

易 危 VU

Bab(ii,iii)

适宜分布区消失;建议就地保护的同时迁

地保护，再具体，从种子、无性繁殖、栖

息地保护到基因保存，减少其它影响，其

他物种也一样

极

高

中长期内有效

2 矮沙冬青 中国为次要分布区,

已知分布地点少于 5

个,种群持续衰退

濒 危 EN

Blab(ii)+2a

b(ii)

适宜分布区消失;建议就地保护,开展繁殖

试验和引种驯化

极

高

当前和短期内有

效

3 白沙蒿 未列入 适宜分布区消失;就地保护,栖息地恢复 极

高

当前和短期内有

效

4 白梭梭 中国为次要分布区,

推测过去3 个世代内

致危因素没有停止,

种群至少减少 30%

易 危 VU

A2c

新疆的适宜分布区面积减小,内蒙古的东

北部出现新的分布区;建议在原分布区新

疆,进行就地保护,进行栖息地保护与恢复;

同时在内蒙古东北部进行迁地保护,帮助

迁徙

中

等

当前和中长期内

均有效

5 百花蒿 一年生草本,生于沙

丘

未列入 适宜分布区消失,人工帮助繁殖 极

高

中长期内有效

6 斑子麻黄 中国为次要分布区,

已知分布地点少于 5

个,种群持续衰弱

濒 危 EN

B2ab(ii)

其适宜分布区消失,建议就地保护,减少非

气候变化不利影响

极

高

当前和短期内有

效

Conclusion and suggestionConclusion and suggestion

Understanding the potential impacts of climate Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity is important for change on the biodiversity is important for conservation biodiversity. conservation biodiversity. The impacts of climate change on the nature The impacts of climate change on the nature reserve include impacts of vegetation, reserve include impacts of vegetation, topography, soil and other factors, and many topography, soil and other factors, and many uncertain existed about impacts of climate uncertain existed about impacts of climate change on factors.change on factors.

The impacts of climate change on nature reserve The impacts of climate change on nature reserve also include the species viability, changing of habitat, also include the species viability, changing of habitat, ecosystem structure and function , landscape ecosystem structure and function , landscape structure and function ,vulnerability and so on. structure and function ,vulnerability and so on. Management strategies for effectively conservation Management strategies for effectively conservation biodiversity must expand protection of future biodiversity must expand protection of future patterns of biodiversity under climate change.patterns of biodiversity under climate change.

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