the impacts of demographic change in the functional economies of the north of england thursday 15...
TRANSCRIPT
THE IMPACTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN
THE FUNCTIONAL ECONOMIES OF THE NORTH OF ENGLAND
Thursday 15 September
Sheffield Town Hall
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Professor Keith Burnett
Vice Chancellor, University of Sheffield
Chair, N8 Research Partnership
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David Willetts MP
Minister of State for Universities and Science
Department for Business Innovation and Skills
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Objectives and format
ObjectivesLaunch of 5 main outputs of the programme of researchHighlight key research findings for local and national levelOpportunity for discussion of the implications of the work
locally at the level of the North of England nationally
Understand next steps to maximise opportunities and mitigate challenges
Format Presentation and Q&A with Research TeamResponse from public and private sector – practical and policy contextGroup discussions on next steps and response
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The N8 Research Team
Professor Ray Hudson, Durham University: Academic Lead
Professor Philip Rees, University of Leeds
Professor Alan Harding, University of Manchester
Professor Tom Cannon, University of Liverpool
Dr Lisa Buckner, University of Leeds
Professor Ray Hudson
Durham University
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About this Research…..
Key aimsProfiling of demographic change in northern functional economiesFocus on the economic implications
Economic and labour market change Entrepreneurship, innovation and enterprise Services and costs: housing, health and social care
N8 Research Partnership Multi-disciplinary team of Northern Universities Sponsored by Northern Way Policy & Research Programme Response to Northern Way City Regions Forum
External Advisory Group Four Government departments Northern City Regions Regional observatories Independent experts
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Context to the research…..
Economic conditions Austerity Employment, unemployment Constrained growth
Demographic transitions Ageing Migration
Policy directions and institutional change Rebalancing Big Society Localism and Local Enterprise
Partnerships
Some issues to note…..
Data issuesGVA: best fit at EU NUTS2 scalePopulation data reported at local authority and regional levelDifferent assumptions deliver different projections - two models reported in study with different assumptions – TRENDEF (official), UPTAPER (Leeds)
LEP territoriesDisconnect between LEP territories and data scalesOverlapping LEP boundaries in a number of areas means aggregation challenging
Overall findings on Northern demography…..
Distinctive compared with national context
Common aggregate trends across North Population growth Ageing Diversity
Spatial diversity in terms of scale and rate Urban-Rural Core-periphery
Differential spatial impact of economic and demographic interactions
Overall population growth everywhere…..
Moderate aggregate population growth projected (8-12% between 2001 and 2036)
Different rates of change in different places
Ageing…..
Aggregate ageingIncreased longevityDeclining fertilityGrowth and higher birth-rates amongst immigrant and minority communitiesHealth care needsLabour market contraction
Variable 2011 2036
Time
series
2011=100
Population (1000s) 15,117 16,938 112
Percent White 92.2 87.9 95
OSR65 (16-64/65+) 3.4 2.2 65
OSR70 (16-69/70+) 5.1 3.1 91
OSR75 (16-74/75+) 7.8 4.7 138
People with LLTI
(1000s) 3,268 4,163 125
Labour Force
(1000s) 6,891 6,764 96
Table 1 Selected population statistics for Northern England, 2011-2036
Diverse prospects: population growth…..
Code NameTRENDEF
PopulationsTime
SeriesUPTAPER
PopulationsTime
Series
2011 2036 2036 2011 2036 2036
LEP1 Greater Manchester 2,611 2,861 109.5 2,585 2,714 105.0
LEP2 Liverpool City Region 1,493 1,508 101.0 1,487 1,484 99.8
LEP3 Leeds City Region 3,001 3,464 115.4 2,977 3,320 111.5
LEP4 Sheffield City Region 1,809 1,980 109.4 1,798 1,926 107.1
LEP5 Cheshire and Warrington 904 977 108.1 899 950 105.7
LEP6 Tees Valley 676 721 106.7 672 703 104.6
LEP7 Cumbria 532 606 113.9 526 574 109.1
LEP8 Hull City Region 935 1,011 108.2 930 998 107.3
LEP9 North Yorkshire 596 695 116.6 589 651 110.6
LEP10 North East 2,025 2,311 114.2 2,005 2,197 109.6
LEP11 Lancashire 1,522 1,706 112.1 1,508 1,636 108.5
LEP3a Leeds City Region 2,489 2,888 116.0 2,468 2,763 111.9
LEP4a Sheffield City Region 1,328 1,439 108.3 1,320 1,404 106.4
Totals Northern England 13,617 15,215 111.7 13,502 14,590 108.1
Rest of England 38,123 45,060 118.2 37,811 41,815 110.6
England 53,240 61,999 116.5 52,870 58,036 109.8
Table: Population change for LEPs, 2011-2036. Note: Populations are in 1000s. The time series starts at 2011 = 100. TRENDEF = projection aligned with the 2008-based National Population Projection. UPTAPER = projection with alternative model for emigration, which increases in line with the population
Diverse prospects: interaction of trends …..
Distinctive sub-national pictures:Natural increaseNet migrationPopulation change 1990-2007IllustrationsNorth EastMerseysideNorth Yorkshire
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Pop
ulat
ion
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
Nat
ural
Incr
ease
and
Net
Mig
ratio
n (0
00)
Year
Net Migration Natural Increase Population
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
(10.0)
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Popu
latio
n In
dex
(199
0=10
0)
Nat
ural
Incr
ease
and
Net
Mig
ratio
n (0
00)
Year
Net Migration Natural Increase Population
Example: South Yorkshire - Components of Change 1990-2007
97
97
98
98
99
99
100
100
101
101
102
(8.0)
(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Pop
ulat
ion
Inde
x (1
990=
100)
Nat
ural
Incr
ease
and
Net
Mig
ratio
n (0
00)
Year
Net Migration Natural Increase Population
Findings on economic impacts…..
-Diverse labour markets-The entrepreneurship challenge-Opportunities for innovation-Rethinking our infrastructure-Underpinning the Big Society
Diverse prospects for diverse economies: declining labour force....
Code NameTRENDEF working
age population Time
SeriesUPTAPER Working
age populationTime
Series
2011 2036 2036 2011 2036 2036
LEP1 Greater Manchester 1,170 1,120 95.7 1,153 1,052 91.2LEP2 Liverpool City Region 635 559 88.2 630 545 86.5LEP3 Leeds City Region 1,363 1,391 102.1 1,345 1,313 97.6LEP4 Sheffield City Region 823 801 97.3 814 768 94.3LEP5 Cheshire and Warrington 415 398 96.1 411 381 92.9LEP6 Tees Valley 320 299 93.4 316 287 90.7LEP7 Cumbria 243 250 102.8 239 233 97.3LEP8 Hull City Region 473 458 96.9 468 446 95.2LEP9 North Yorkshire 282 298 105.9 277 274 98.9LEP10 North East 922 939 101.8 909 877 96.5LEP11 Lancashire 712 719 101.0 702 681 96.9LEP3a Leeds City Region 1,130 1,157 102.5 1,114 1,090 97.9LEP4a Sheffield City Region 591 567 95.9 584 546 93.4Totals Northern England 6,891 6,764 95.9 6,804 6,411 93.4
Table: Projected labour force, 2011 and 2036 (defined as 18-60/65 Note: Populations are in 1000s. The time series starts at 2011 = 100. Constant labour force participation rates by age and sex applied from 2001
Rethinking our infrastructure: household numbers increasing……
Code NameTRENDEF
households Time
SeriesUPTAPER
householdsTime
Series
2011 2036 2036 2011 2036 2036
LEP1 Greater Manchester 1,125 1,279 114 1,110 1,190 107
LEP2 Liverpool City Region 639 685 107 658 690 105
LEP3 Leeds City Region 1,250 1,487 119 1,288 1,455 113
LEP4 Sheffield City Region 1,017 1,145 113 831 914 110
LEP5 Cheshire and Warrington 366 405 111 262 289 110
LEP6 Tees Valley 180 220 123 250 266 106
LEP7 Cumbria 233 270 116 194 219 113
LEP8 Hull City Region 219 244 111 141 158 112
LEP9 North Yorkshire 256 305 119 461 504 109
LEP10 North East 958 1098 115 1,034 1,122 109
LEP11 Lancashire 591 694 118 514 580 113
LEP3a Leeds City Region 1,016 1,225 121 1,078 1,223 114
LEP4a Sheffield City Region 569 642 113 564 615 109
Totals Northern England 6,153 7,065 115 6,267 6,856 109
Projected households, 2011 and 2036 Note: Households are in 1000s. The time series starts at 2011 = 100.
Opportunities
Mobilising people Maximising skills to retain labour market capacity Growing entrepreneurship among the over 50s Using social capital in ‘Big Society’ roles: mentoring, volunteering,
intergenerational opportunities Building social enterprises
Investing in innovation Northern innovation assets in response to demographic change
• lifestyle, quality of life, assisted living
New market opportunities Mobilising the wealth of over 50’s as consumers and investors Improving homes for older and diverse populations: new and retrofitting Range of emerging markets
• personal services, care, tourism, support technologies, remote health monitoring systems, healthcare at home
Challenges
Understanding the position in different areasFor LEP’s and stakeholders: understanding of a cross-cutting issueFor central government: distinctiveness of and within the North Differing patterns: past and future patterns of economic and demographic changeMaintaining long term perspective on fiscal, social and economic consequences
Immigration and labour supply Growth in employment opportunities, but key capacity gaps – eg caringImportance of immigration to compensate natural change
Risks of increasing inequalityAgeing communities with sustained unemploymentPoorer health, low levels of pension related income and resources.
Focusing on innovation in highly political contextNeed for enhanced supply of health and social care servicesImproving health to maximise economic participation
Resources from the N8: Five Reports….
The Impacts of Demographic Change in the Functional Economies of the North of England: Summary ReportR.Hudson (Durham) et al
Modelling Demographic Change in the Functional Economies of the North of England P.Rees (Leeds) et al
Understanding the Demand for Skills and Labour in the North of EnglandA.Harding (Manchester) et al
Entrepreneurship and Enterprise implications of the North’s dynamic populationT.Cannon (Liverpool), K.Kurowska (Newcastle) et al
The Impact of Demographic Change on the Infrastructure for Housing, Health and Social Care in the Functional Economies of the North of EnglandL.Buckner (Leeds) et al
http://www.n8research.org.uk/research-themes/demographic-change/
Professor Alan Harding
University of Manchester
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Findings
Economic differentiation at different scales including: North-South – growth of London super-regionWithin the North - ‘new agglomeration’ favouring big metro areasIn functional economic areas driven by sectoral change, housing markets and skillsDifferentiation is long-standing and comparatively extreme
Demographic and economic trends interact – responding and re-inforcing Roles of places in wider economic geographiesShaping decisions – about business locations, enterprise zones, housing markets
Policy context going with the grain of economic trendsExplicit spatial policies and programmes in decline – modestly favourable to NorthDirections of implicit spatial programmes
redistributive favour North but less prominent given spending squeeze place blind’ having imbalancing effects
Decentralisation/localism/incentivising development favouring areas of market potential tensions in areas affected by market, population and development trends
Co-ordination important
Examples – concentrating economic activity in NE and GM
Findings
© Crown Copy right. All rights reserv ed. Licence No 100019918 2010
Rochdale
Cheadle
Woodf ord
ManchesterAirport
Swinton
Heywood
ManchesterCity Centre
Traf f ordCentre
10
Middlebrook
0 5
miles
0 4.5 9
Change in employment 2003-2008 in - all sectors
1,000 to 11,827 (33)500 to 1,000 (39)250 to 500 (67)
0 to 250 (644)-250 to 0 (684)-500 to -250 (98)
-1,000 to -500 (52)-5,941 to -1,000 (29)
Challenges
Policy - clarity needed on:How differentiation processes matter, for example the interaction between economic and demographic trends How places within wider geographies can be shaped to address re-balancing aspirations at different scalesThe role of explicit and implicit policy choices in shaping development
Analytical The ‘new agglomeration’ and the interactions between trendsHow can policy influence the and the value of different policy choicesEconomic forecasting: linear ‘return-to-trend’ analysis vs scenario planningDemographic forecasting: revisiting migration assumptions?Ageing: understanding how recent and future labour market trends will affect asset-richness and poorness of older age groups and their residential choices
Professor Tom Cannon
University of Liverpool
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The entrepreneurship challenge….
More entrepreneurship in older age across the UK
North-South divergence in older age groups
Some sectoral differences….
% of Economically Active who are Self-Employed
2002 2009
England16-19 2 220-24 4 425-34 10 935-49 13 1450-64 17 1865+ 33 35
Northern Regions16-19 2 220-24 4 525-34 9 935-49 11 1250-64 14 1665+ 21 29
New demands in an ageing population
Markets ProductsLifestyle and quality of life
Products and services targeted on self-actualisation, health and leisure
Tourism, leisure, retail, Housing & accommodation, catering, personal services, Arts, entertainment, recreation, travelClothing, cosmetics and other targeted products
Personal development
Filling gaps in opportunities, experiences and skills
Formal and community educationInformation and related technologiesHealth, fitness, nutrition and medicines
Assisted livingElectronic and physical devices and personal services to enable independence and ongoing active lifestyles
Personal alarms, home robotsSmart metering and touch technologiesCall centres, resource centres, book and reading GroupsRehabilitative Technologies and services, Electronic readers, wireless smart pillboxCleaning services, respite services, live in carers, hairdressing Advisory services, emergency numbers
High
Intervention
Personal Care
Older couplesCommunity careOlder disabled
Support equipmentBone Mineral MeasurementRehabilitation Engineering Low wear hip, shoulder, knee replacement and related materials technologiesHeart valve transplants
Medical
Interventions
The very oldSeriously disabled
Heart valve transplantsGeriatric servicesCritical Care PhysicsServices for dignity
Access
Opportunities for new/small businesses and existing/large businesses
Opportunities for existing/larger firms predominate
Opportunities for new/small businesses predominate
Dr Lisa Buckner
University of Leeds
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Results 2011-2036:Population grows, ages & becomes more diverse: acute change in rural areas
Changing demands on housing stock across population groups
Increase in people living alone
The impact of demographic change on the infrastructure for housing, health and social care in the functional economies of the North of England
Group Number by 2036 (‘000s)
Increase from 2011 (%)
Population 16,500 7
Population aged 75+
2,465 72
Population aged 90+
434 197
BME population
1,829 55
Increases in the number of people living with long standing health conditions
More people in care or needing support to undertake at least one self-care activity or domestic task
Number of voluntary carers predicted to increase by just 2%
Condition Number by 2036 (‘000s)
Increase from 2011 (%)
Dementia 387 83
Heart disease 273 36
Stroke 126 37
Unable to undertake at least one:
Domestic task 2,039 64
Self-care activity
1,664 64
Implications: Demand for care predicted to outstrip supply
Recognise the importance of carers as the main providers of social care.Incentivise and enable caring to avoid ‘care gap’ by supporting carersDevelop alternative care arrangements and encourage flexible working arrangements to enable increasing people to combine paid work and care.Opportunities for new solutions
Housing and accommodation for rapid growth of older peopleDevelop housing that can be adapted to enable older people to stay in their own homes and specialist housing for older people to live independentlyRecognise demand for increasing numbers of residential/nursing care places.
Local areas affected to differing degrees and in different ways Different solutions needed in different local conditions
The impact of demographic change on the infrastructure for housing, health and social care in the functional economies of the North of England
Professor Phil Rees
University of Leeds
Projection scenarios used
TREND: the assumptions of the 2008-based National Population Projections are used and then factored to local areas using the most recent information (2006-2008), except that we use our own estimates of local immigration rather than those of ONS and assume that internal migration rates out of and into local authorities remain constant at 2006-08 levels.
UPTAP-ER: the same assumptions as in the TREND projections but with a different model for emigration. Emigration is assumed to be a product of constant emigration rates (worked out from 2008 based NPP) multiplied by rising populations, so that emigration increases over time. As immigration is held constant, this means net immigration shrinks over time and the rate of increase of the population is lower than in the TREND projection.
Which is right? Neither but they do indicate the range of possible outcomes. This range really needs to be converted into statements about the probability of future population outcomes. This has been done for some national populations but not successfully for local populations.
Relaxing the assumption of constant prevalence rates
We assumed that prevalence rates by age, sex and ethnicity ofLimiting long-term illness/no limiting long-term illnessGood health/not good healthLabour force participation Household representative and memberships
would remain constant over time.
Sanderson and Scherbov (2010, Science) have shown how much the picture for health status can change if you adopt a model of changing rates linked to mortality improvements.
This assumption can be relaxed through use of time series of national surveys (Health Survey of England, Labour Force Survey/Annual Population Survey/Integrated Household Survey, ESRC’s Understanding Society Panel) and through use of relational methods linking localities to the national trend as developed by Alan Marshall, PDRF, Leeds.
The outcomes would probably be more favourable than we currently project.
Resources from the N8: Our data source….
Spatially disaggregated demographic and socio-economic data collected and prepared for this research programme.
To access these data and all the research reports
http://www.n8research.org.uk/research-themes/demographic-change/
Question and Answer Session
Chair: Keith Burnett
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Professor Trevor McMillan
Pro Vice Chancellor Research
Chair, N8 PVC Group
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Stephen Pegge
Lloyds Banking Group
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Paul Mooney
Department for Work and Pensions
Workshop discussions
• What are the key impacts and opportunities of demographic change in the Northern functional economies that LEPs, Local Government and business should focus on?
• What can be done at a local level to respond to these impacts and opportunities, and how can central Government support these actions?
• What issues do we need to understand better?
Identify three key points or next steps to feed back to the Conference
Feedback session
Simon Pringle
Director, SQW
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Policy Reflections Richard Baker
Research QuestionsRay Hudson
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Professor Trevor McMillan
Pro Vice Chancellor Research
Chair, N8 PVC Group
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