the impacts of the indian ocean warming trend on african climate
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The Impacts of the Indian Ocean warming trend on African Climate. Dan Hodson and Rowan Sutton. NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling Department of Meteorology University of Reading. Outline. Observations. Experiments I Atmosphere model forced with: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Impacts of the Indian Ocean warming trend on
African Climate.
Dan Hodson and Rowan Sutton
NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric ModellingDepartment of Meteorology
University of Reading
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OutlineObservations.Experiments I
– Atmosphere model forced with:• Historical Observed Sea Surface Temperatures.• 1°C Anomaly in the Indian Ocean
Indian Ocean Temperature TrendExperiments II
– Atmosphere model force with Observed Indian Ocean warming Trend
ResultsConclusions and Caveats
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Observations
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Hoerling et al. J. Climate 2006
1950-1999 Trend in Rainfall
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Experiments I
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AGCM forced with Observed SSTs
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AGCM Forced with Obs SSTs 1950-1999
Hoerling et al. J. Climate 2006
FMA
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AGCM Forced with Obs SSTs 1950-1999
Hoerling et al. J. Climate 2006
JAS
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AGCM forced with 1°C Indian Ocean
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+1°C
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AGCM Forced with 1C Indian Ocean Anomaly
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AGCM Forced with 1C Indian Ocean Anomaly
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Indian Ocean Temperature Trend
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Indian Ocean SST Trend
C
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Indian Ocean SST trend
Annual mean SST trend 1951-1990 C/year
0.02
-0.02
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Atmosphere model force with Observed Indian Ocean
warming Trend
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Jan
May
Sept
SST Anomalies
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Indian Ocean SST Trend
CIOP
ION
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Experiment
Five AGCMs– Arpege – CAM3– Echam5– GAM (IAP)– HadAM3
Indian Ocean Positive (IOP) Indian Ocean Negative (ION)
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Results
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FMAVertical velocity Rainfall Surface Temperature
ARP
CAM
ECH
GAM
HAD
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JASVertical velocity Rainfall Surface Temperature
ARP
CAM
ECH
GAM
HAD
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Caveats?
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Observed MSLP trends
Copsey et al GRL 2006
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MSLP Trends
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Conclusions
AGCMs forced with warm Indian Ocean capture some of the trends in African rainfall (both FMA and JAS).
Trends associated with changes in subsidence/ changes in Walker Circulation.
Can we use AGCMs to model past changes in this way?
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Vertical Structure JAS
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Vertical Structure FMA
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Station rainfall trends 1950-1999
(JAS/FMA)