the implications of increased sounding data in the amazon basin for global climate models
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The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models. Summary of field research in Leticia, Colombia, Feb. 18 th – 26 th , 2011. Outline. Assess feasibility of acquiring sounding data in the Amazon basin What is sounding data? Why do we need it? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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The Implications of Increased Sounding Data in the Amazon Basin for Global Climate Models
Summary of field research in Leticia, Colombia, Feb. 18th –
26th, 2011
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Outline
Assess feasibility of acquiring sounding data in the Amazon basin What is sounding data? Why do we need it? What are the constraints?
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Climate vs. Weather
Weather: recent or current conditions (ex. Cloud cover, precipitation)• Short term
Climate: typical weather for a given location• Long term• Includes weather extremes• Ex. Monthly rainfall, snowfall, normal temp extremes
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What is Sounding Data?
Real time data for atmospheric variables Temperature Pressure Relative Humidity Winds
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Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs)
Included in Global Climate Models AGCMs differ in spatial resolutions Variables
temperature pressure humidity winds water and ice condensate in cloud
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Limited-Area Models/RegionalClimate Models (RCMs)
Studying climatic processes and interactions on scales too fine for typical GCM resolutions.
RCMs can give more intense events that will be smoothed in coarser-resolution GCMs.
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Environmental Lapse Rate Environmental Lapse Rate • the decrease
in temperature with altitude (-dT/dz or -dT/dp)
Atmospheric layers are defined by the change of sign of the lapse rate
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Data Collection Methods Surface
Stations or ships Radiosonde
Tether System High – Altitude Balloon
Satellite Microwave Radiation
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Radiosondes
Many varieties Include instrument
and ground station Some are mobile
Expendable Includes:
Temperature Relative Humidity Pressure Wind
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Balloon Sounding Constraints
Cost Mobility Accuracy of data
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Cost Constraints
AnaSonde
Vaisala
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Mobility Constraints
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Requirements of Climate Studies
•Temperature• ±2.5°C at ambient
temperature
•Relative Humidity• ±2% for 10°C<T<20°C• ±5% for T<10°C
•Pressure• ±2%
AnaSonde Accuracy
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Current Findings:
Christy et al. 2010: What Do Observational Datasets Say about Modeled Tropospheric Temperature Trends since 1979?
Thorne et al. 2011: Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy
Preliminary Manaus analysis: Surface increase over last 10 years = .5 degrees C Sounding to 10km increase over same period is
only .15 degrees C
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30 Year Sounding Analysis
Assign weight to each year at each altitude Increments of 100m
At each altitude, divide the sum of weight by the sum of % available
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30 Year Sounding Analysis
Find difference at each altitude
Find the average difference
Find the average of the monthly trends
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Monthly ELR Change
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Natal ELR
Dry season ELR average changeWet season ELR average changeST average changeELR average changeMonthly ELR change
Month
ELR
Chan
ge (
deg
C)
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MONTH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AVERAGE CHANGE -0.073820.109067 -0.14193 -0.12137 -0.15117 -0.498670.1925740.2873940.0588290.1276730.241961 -0.22174
AVERAGE ST CHANGE 0.1894480.6477450.0858280.7554890.7670180.1790160.8134740.2952060.2268070.871011 0.646140.437116AVERAGE DRY -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192 -0.10192
AVERAGE WET 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005 0.07005AVERAGE -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593 -0.01593
AVERAGE ST 0.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.4928580.492858
AVERAGE SURFACE TEMP 28.69 28.67 28.55 28.15 27.67 26.32 25.64 26.13 27.56 28.44 28.89 28.94
AVERAGE 10KM TEMP -5.34 -5.09 -4.53 -4.19 -4.2 -4.76 -5.6 -5.16 -4.92 -4.81 -4.9 -5.16
AVERAGE 02KM TEMP 14.71 14.67 15.31 15.48 15.27 14.38 13.53 13.45 13.79 14.57 14.78 13.53AVERAGE ELR -5.85167 -5.82833 -5.70667 -5.56 -5.51333 -5.37 -5.415 -5.39833 -5.59 -5.71 -5.815 -5.89333
AVERAGE DRY ELR -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556 -5.56556
AVERAGE WET ELR -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972 -5.70972
Natal 12Z
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MONTH 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
AVERAGE CHANGE 0.583342 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.69287 #DIV/0! 1.2259920.4658121.4963310.865918 #DIV/0!
AVERAGE ST CHANGE 1.01119 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! -0.04101 #DIV/0! 1.0713281.1604341.1665391.162777 #DIV/0!
AVERAGE DRY #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE WET #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE ST #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
AVERAGE SURFACE TEMP 26.97 27.56 27.46 27.63 26.38 25.39 24.66 24.63 25.1 26.14 26.53 26.83
AVERAGE 10KM TEMP -34.53 -33.63 -33.22 -32.43 -32.77 -33.45 -34.85 -34.38 -34.46 -34.14 -33.99 -35.09
AVERAGE 02KM TEMP 15.43 15.57 15.42 15.65 15.24 13.99 13.73 13.64 13.87 14.95 15.33 15.37
AVERAGE ELR -5.56667 -5.61667 -5.57833 -5.5 -5.34167 -5.36333 -5.19 -5.10667 -5.22 -5.34 -5.43333 -5.53833AVERAGE DRY ELR -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167 -5.43167
AVERAGE WET ELR -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675 -5.3675
Natal 00Z
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Further Research
Accuracy and precision of sensors Quantifying uncertainties in sounding
data Acquiring reliable and cost-effective
sounding data for the Amazon rainforest Increase in the amount of data
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Acknowledgements UM Office of Research and Sponsored Programs UM Excellence Fund: Office of the Provost and
Vice President for Academic Affairs UM Department of Physics and Astronomy Montana Space Grant Consortium Entropika Anasphere Jennifer Fowler