Population and Cities

THE INFLUENCE OF TECH ON THE FUTURE OF CITIES

GeekWire Summit, October 4th, 2016Scott Wyatt, Partner, NBBJ

This is what the architectural drawing used to look like

Here is what our architectural drawings look like today

7.12 Billion People2015https://flic.kr/p/cfCqpj

Population is projected to be over 9 billion people by 2050

Between 2014-2060 the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. (US Census Bureau)

https://flic.kr/p/cfCqpj>9.5 Billion People2050

Population is projected to be over 9 billion people by 2050

Between 2014-2060 the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. (US Census Bureau)

33% increase of population between 2015 and 2050

Currently 54% of the worlds population lives in urban areas

Today, 54% of works population lives in urban areas expected to increase to 66% by 2050

By 2050 66% of the worlds population will live in urban areas

66%

Today, 54% of works population lives in urban areas expected to increase to 66% by 2050

6.3 Billion People

Full Stat:(Today, 54% of works population lives in urban areas expected to increase to 66% by 2050)

John Deere vs. AmazonOther big companies moving into the city like GEStartups moving from the garage in the suburbs to the loft in the city

Seattle - #10 in the US7,962 people per square mileNew York City - #1 in the US28,056 people per square mileManila - #1 in the World111,002 people per square mile

City Density

NYC (#1) 28,056 people per square mile (2014)SEA (#10) 7,962 people per square mile (2014)Source: US Census Bureau

Geoffrey West, physicist from the Santa Fe Institute says that in general cities scale in a super linear fashion.

Positives of Density

Systematically, the bigger the city, the more wages you can expect, the more educational institutions in principle, more cultural events, more patents are produced, it's more innovative and so on. Remarkably, all to the same degree. There was a universal exponent which turned out to be approximately 1.15 which translated to English says something like the following: If you double the size of a city from 50,000 to a hundred thousand, a million to two million, five million to ten million, it doesn't matter what, systematically, you get a roughly 15 percent increase in productivity, patents, the number of research institutions, wages and so on, and you get systematically a 15 percent saving in length of roads and general infrastructure.

If you double the size of a city, you get a roughly 15% increase in productivity, patents, research institutions, wages and so on, and you also get a 15% savings in general infrastructure

Positives of Density15%

Systematically, the bigger the city, the more wages you can expect, the more educational institutions in principle, more cultural events, more patents are produced, it's more innovative and so on. Remarkably, all to the same degree. There was a universal exponent which turned out to be approximately 1.15 which translated to English says something like the following: If you double the size of a city from 50,000 to a hundred thousand, a million to two million, five million to ten million, it doesn't matter what, systematically, you get a roughly 15 percent increase in productivity, patents, the number of research institutions, wages and so on, and you get systematically a 15 percent saving in length of roads and general infrastructure.

16%Greater risk of developing depression

70%Higher rates for major brain disorders

Negatives of Density

Stat on density negatives:rates for psychosis (such as the major brain disorder schizophrenia) were 70% greater for the denser areas. There was also a 16% greater risk of developing depression

New Geography, Health, Happiness, and Density 9/19/2013Sundquist, K., Golin, F., Sundquist, J.,Urbanisation and incidence of psychosis and depression, British Journal of Psychiatry (2004), 184, 293-298.

The Challenges

City ZoningAffordable HousingTransportation

The Opportunities

CommunityEducationLive, Work, Play Integration

Arts + Culture

Humans are not evolved for such density. Over 99.8% of our existence has been spent outdoors

A Building Boom

The total size of buildings as of 2000296 Billion SF

Brookings Institute: Half of the top metropolitan areas will need to build as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed on the ground in 2000

A Building Boom

The total size of current buildings replaced by 203082 Billion SF

Brookings Institute: Half of the top metropolitan areas will need to build as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed on the ground in 2000

A Building Boom

The total size of new buildings built by 2030131 Billion SF

Brookings Institute: Half of the top metropolitan areas will need to build as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed on the ground in 2000

A Building Boom

The total size of new or replacement buildings by 2030213 Billion SF

Brookings Institute: Half of the top metropolitan areas will need to build as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed on the ground in 2000

A Building Boom

100%

Brookings Institute: Half of the top metropolitan areas will need to build as much or more commercial and industrial space as existed on the ground in 2000

BuildingScienceHumanScience

Quick view of challenges tools we have to face them

and they can do just about anything if it's with a brick in a vault or an arch

With design computation, we can build models that react to changing parameters that affect design

BuildingScience

Well start panning through a definition from close up additions to see the whole thingAt NBBJ we build models that react to changing parameters that affect designFade to Video of UI interface we use these pioneered techniques to make interfaces for clients and designers to explore options together.

Show how switching massing options and typing in values changes the 3d model.It allows architects to quickly sketch ideas and immediately see the quantitative implications of form.

Show video of how we can export the results as drawings and legible spreadsheets to hand offBest of all, we also make sure we can immediately share the data and drawings automatically.

To design buildings that give back to their environment, we can use tools like computation daylight simulation to provide a dense city access to daylight

BuildingScience

Designing buildings that give back to their environment

Design computation tools, like computation daylight simulation, help to produce better performing buildings that give back to their environment.

Design computation brings access to sunlight in a dense city.

Moving from more conceptual applications to real world applications of design comp and brain science

Hangzhou Stadium

Transition Lets talk about the human science we are dealing with Pink Room Story

Dr. John MedinaDevelopmental molecular biologist and research consultant. He is an Affiliate Professor of Bioengineering at the University of Washington School of Medicine and an NBBJ Fellow.

We partner with people like John Medina

Evidence demonstrates contact with nature positively impacts blood pressure, cholesterol, outlook on life and stress-reduction These outcomes have particular relevance in areas of mental health and cardiovascular disease, categories that are set to be the two biggest contributors to disease worldwide by the year 2020 ulrich,et al

Design Computation:- Construction, spheres: capability to do complex things because he have robust models. We were able to make sure that the pieces were constructible, despite - not difficult to

We Have A Choice.The Future Is In Our Hands.

Scott WyattPartner, NBBJswyatt@nbbj.com