The Insecurity of Ecosystem Services

Jaboury GhazoulChair of Ecosystem Management

ETH Zurich

Ecosystem Service Framework

IPBESUN Sustainable Devel. Goals

CBD

Aichi targetsMEA

Social and political roots

EU Biodiversity Strategy 2020

Ecological science

Are we oversimplifying societal complexities?

Californian Almonds5 November 2013

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

200

400

600

800

1000

Tota

l pro

ducti

on

('000

tonn

es)

Crop is forecast to be 2% down to around 800,000 tonnes2013

40 Per cent drop in bee population will hit the pollination of crops

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1

2

3

4

5

6

Mill

ions

of h

ives

Costs & returns (/ha) in 2014Total cost of production: $6,834Of which pollination (15%): $926Gross returns: $10,049Profit: $3,215

Land for pasture: $800 ha-1

Land for almond: $10,000 ha-1

Indian Coffee

Size/distance interaction

Coffee production

–

Shade tree diversity

Exotic tree density

Shade

–Coffee density

Irrigation

Lime

Coffee trees

Forest patches

Pollinators

Many interactions and many trade-offs

CAFNET Mela – Ponampet 2011 8

Coffee

Landscape Beauty

Firewood

Biodiversity Conservation

Water quality

Carbon Storage

Coffee Grower

Downstream City

Tribal worker

Carbon Trader

Contribution to wellbeing

Strategies++ + + -LANDSCAPE LABELLING

- + - - -PROTECTED AREA

+ ++ - ++CARBON & WATER PES

PowerStakeholders

History of Coffee in India: A history of power re-allocation

British Raj 1834

Independence 1947

Liberalisation1980s

British Planters

Coffee and Pepper

Traditional farmers

Rice and Cardamom

Expansion of coffee area

(Arabica to Robusta)

Forest conversion and encroachment

Urbanisation2000s

Adivasi

Shifting cultivation

Family farms(< 1 ha)

Cardamom or Coffee/pepper

Subsistance rice

Intensification1990s

Intensification of coffee farms

Grevillea robusta

Sun coffee

Rural to urban migration

Growth of tourism

Forest Rights Act

Commercial estates

(> 50 ha)

Coffee/pepper

Migrant labour

Principal driver of

change

Colonial government

National government

Green Revolution

Private farmers

Global markets

Urbanisation

Poole Harbour

Poole Harbour PES scheme• Local authorities object to paying farmers for reductions in agricultural

nitrogen pollution.

• Use of development funds to address agricultural pollution is unfair and politically unacceptable given that agriculture contributes 85% of total nitrogen load

• Farmers and landowners are unwilling to accept long-term contracts for nutrient reduction measures.

• Collective action is a significant challenge, particularly when … spatial scales are large (e.g., water quality and flood risk services)… there are many affected actors

Improving water quality by nutrient offsetting

Oil Palm in Cameroon

Constraints to productivity and profitability

• Unreliable water supply• Expensive agricultural inputs• Ageing plantations• Lack of good quality seedlings• Low milling efficiency• Theft of fruit• Lack of skilled and local labour• Conflicts over tenure• Government policies• Declining prices

Photos by Patrice Levang

Declining palm oil price

Palm oil monthly price: US$ per metric tonne

2010 2011 20132012

$1240

$900

$700

$1160

Opportunities of high prices

Company – smallholder interactions

Opportunities provided by:

Improved millingSubsidized fertilizersAccess to high quality seedlings

Opportunities limited by:

Inefficient millingExpensive fertilizersPoor quality seedlings

Implications of low prices

Investing in large concessions is less attractive

The Complexities of Decision-Making

Land-use decisions

Market opportunitiesAccess to market

Prices and demandProcessing opportunities

IncentivesGovernment subsidy schemesAccess to credit and materials

Payment for ES schemes

Formal institutionsLegal arrangements

governing access to land and resources

Property rightsto land and resources

Informal InstitutionsCustomary rules, norms,

beliefs governing access to land and resources

Ecological factorsProductivity, soil, water,

biodiversity, risk reduction

Household factorsAge, gender, size, labour,

income …

Exogenous Endogenous

Navigating complexity

1

Quality of life Livelihood capitals Perceptions Strategies…

StakeholdersPolicy and Markets Norms Institutions Markets …

Geomorphology Land cover Hydrology

Geophysical system

Goods, Services and Dynamics

Crops, timber … Soil fertility Pollination …

Companion Modelling

Power over ecosystem services is not

distributed equally

Endogenous and exogenous pressures shape land use change, and affect the relative merits

of ecosystem service strategies

There are winners and losers, always

Benefits of ecosystem services are not

distributed equally

Contexts are complex … and changeable

and integrate our thinking across a complex world of social and political inequalities and trade-offs

We need to look well beyond our disciplinary interests …

Good luck!