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La Sapienza – Università di Roma. May 21, 2015

Luis Toméltome@autonoma.pt

http://observare.ual.pt

The international

expansion of the

Islamic State

Radical Sunni ideology

jihadi-Salafism (al-salafiyya al-jihadiyya), or jihadism

• exclusive ideology that holds a clear division between “true Muslims”, and those who are erroneous ("apostates” and “infidels”) .

• Unity of the Muslim community (Umma) is possible only when everyone adheres to Salafi beliefs, and thus theological diversity is not possible.

• The ultimate goal is to establish the Caliphate, and to impose the Islamic law (Sharia) within its territory.

• “Takfir doctrine” >> sanctions violence against other Muslims accused of “apostasy” and “unfaithfulness” (kafir)

• The use and "holy war" (jihad) is the only way to fight the enemies and to establish true Islamic governance

«You [Western] love life as we love death ... We make no distinction between civilians and non-civilians, innocents and non-innocents. Only between Muslims and infidels. And the life of an unbeliever has no value. Has no sanctity ... We assume that the objective is to kill as many people to cause terror ... The Divine Text is clear on the need to cause "maximum possible damage." The operational must therefore make sure that kills as many people that he can kill; otherwise, he’ll burns in hell...

Secular say "Islam is the religion of Love." It is true. But Islam is also a religion of war ... Muhammad said: "I am the Prophet of mercy." But He also said: "I am the Prophet of the massacre." The word terrorism is not new among Muslims. Muhammad said even more: "I laugh when I’m killing my enemy." It is therefore not just a matter of kill. It’s laughing while bush unbelievers»

(Omar Bakri Mohammed, interview to Pública magazine, 18 April 2004)

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• Ideologically the Islamic State adopts a more exclusionary conception of Islam, being less tolerant of perceived deviant Islamic sects, particularly Shiism.

Following takfiri doctrine, the Islamic State is committed to purifying the world by killing vast numbers of people…

Muslim “apostates” are the most common victims

>it pursues a more anti-Shia policy, focusing on igniting sectarian warfare

• Organisationally the Islamic State claims to be not merely a jihadi organisation (tanzim), but rather literally what its name implies: a fully fledged sovereign state (dawla)… with expansionist ambitions

• The ultimate goal is the establishment of the Islamic State, the Caliphate, and to impose Sharia laws within the Caliphate’s territory

Origins and evolution of the "Islamic State"

ate 1990’s: Jama’at al-Tawid wa-al-Jihad (Group of Unity and

Jihad),led by Musab al-Zarqawi

Iraq, 2003

focused its efforts not

only on expelling the

“foreign invaders”, but

also on terrorising Iraq’s

majority Shia population

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (or Ibrahim Awwad Ibrahim Ali al-

Badri, born 1971 in Samarra) helps to establish Jamaat Jaysh

Ahl al-Sunnah wal Jamaa

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Abu Bakr al-Bagdhadi

Captured in Fallujah and detained in Camp Bucca

al-Zarqawi >

June: al-Zarqawi killed >> Ayyub al-Masri succeeds in leading AQI

October: Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC) creates the "Islamic State

in Iraq“ (ISI) , led by Abu OMAR al-Bagdhadi, and BAKR al-Bagdhadi

general supervisor of Sharia committee

2010Al Masri e Omar al-Bagdhadi killed >> Abu Bakr al-Bagdhadi takes ISI

leadership, becoming the new “commander of the believers”The US government released an image of

the ISIS leader and offered a reward of

$10m (2011)

This rare image of was released by

the Iraqi interior ministry

>> Tanzim Al-Qaeda wal Jihad fi Balad al-Rafidain

or al Qaeda in Iraque (AQI)

2004

2006

from 2011…

US withdrawal from Iraq

death of Bin Laden

Arab Spring

Luis Tomé

Civil war in Syria

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• ABR 8, 2013: extension of ISI to greater Syria, thereafter known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Levante/al-Sham (ISIL/ISIS) or Dawlah al-Islamiyah fil Iraq wa ash-Sham (Da’ish/DAESH)

• al-Golani objected this move, refusing to disband JN and openly pledging bay‘a to “Emir” Zawahiri - JN thus became an AQ affiliate

• Zawahiri (AQC leader) publicly instructing Baghdadi to limit his group’s activities to Iraq

conflict ISIS vs JN- AQ affiliate in Syria

>> as ISIS had become a powerful force on the ground in Syria, it made a radical comeback in Iraq taking control of large areas in Anbar province…

(June 2014)

Abu Bakr

al-

Baghdadi,

Khalifah

Ibrahim

June 29, 2014: IS self-proclamation as “Caliphate”«Here the flag of the Islamic State, the flag of tawhīd (monotheism), rises

and flutters. Its shade covers land from Aleppo to Diyala…. The kuffār

(infidels) are disgraced. Ahlus-Sunnah (the Sunnis) are masters and are

esteemed. The people of bid’ah (heresy) are humiliated. The hudūd (Sharia

penalties) are implemented – the hudūd of Allah – all of them. The frontlines

are defended…. It is a dream that lives in the depths of every Muslim

believer. It is a hope that flutters in the heart of every mujāhid muwahhid

(monotheist). It is the khilāfah (caliphate). It is the khilāfah – the abandoned

obligation of the era (…)

Therefore, the shūrā (consultation) council of the Islamic State studied this

matter after the Islamic State – by Allah’s grace – gained the essentials

necessary for khilāfah, which the Muslims are sinful for if they do not try to

establish. In light of the fact that the Islamic State has no shar’ī (legal)

constraint or excuse that can justify delaying or neglecting the establishment

of the khilāfah such that it would not be sinful, the Islamic State –

represented by ahlul-halli-wal-‘aqd (its people of authority), consisting of its

senior figures, leaders, and the shūrā council – resolved to announce the

establishment of the Islamic khilāfah, the appointment of a khalīfah for the

Muslims, and the pledge of allegiance to the shaykh (sheikh), the mujāhid,

the scholar who practices what he preaches, the worshipper, the leader, the

warrior, the reviver, descendent from the family of the Prophet, the slave of

Allah, Ibrāhīm Ibn ‘Awwād Ibn Ibrāhīm Ibn ‘Alī Ibn Muhammad al-Badrī al-

Hāshimī al-Husaynī al-Qurashī by lineage, as-Sāmurrā’ī by birth and

upbringing, al-Baghdādī by residence and scholarship. And he has accepted

the bay’ah (pledge of allegiance). Thus, he is the imam and khalīfah for the

Muslims everywhere. Accordingly, the “Iraq and Shām” in the name of the

Islamic State is henceforth removed from all official deliberations and

communications, and the official name is the Islamic State from the date of

this declaration»

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Strategy -

consolidate attributes as a “State“ de facto

Funding...

…the richest terrorist group in the world

Arms

from varied and far-ranging sources of

supply, in this case on a grand scale

growing number of IS’s members and

fighters

huge propaganda campaign, radicalization

and recruitment

IS has become the most dangerous and

lethal terrorist group in the world

TERROR CAMPAIGN AND

EXTERMINATION

«We clarify to the Muslims that with this declaration of khilāfah,

it is incumbent upon all Muslims to pledge allegiance to the

khalīfah Ibrāhīm and support him (may Allah preserve him). The

legality of all emirates, groups, states, and organizations,

becomes null by the expansion of the khilāfah’s authority»

(IS, 29 June 2014)

----------------------------------

Jihadist groups who publicly rejected the IS:AQ Core; Islamic Front, Jabhat al-Nusrah and al-Imam Bukhari Katibat in Syria; Caucasus

Emirate, Russia; General Military Council for Iraqi Revolutionaries, Ira; Al-Qaeda Islamic

Maghreb (AQIM), Algeria; Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), the Philippines; Harakat

Ansar Iran (HAI), Iran; Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Yemen

«We need to condemn, particularly and in the strongest terms, the

heinous and barbaric crime committed by the so-called IS terrorist

group»

(Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Secretary General, Iyad Ameen Madani. February 15, 2015)

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Anti-IS coalition

UNSC Resolution 2178 CSNU, 24 Set 2014: «…particular concern that foreign terrorist fighters are being recruited by and are joining entities such as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL)…Decides that Member States shall…prevent and suppress the recruiting, organizing, transporting or equipping of individuals who travel to a State other than their States of residence or nationality for the purpose of the perpetration, planning, or preparation of, or participation in, terrorist acts or the providing or receiving of terrorist training, and the financing of their travel and of their activities…»

Also EU and its Member States have strengthened efforts of counterterrorism, and prevention of travel to and from theaters of conflict jihadist, incl.:

deepening the understanding of the phenomenon; greater cooperation with the Internet industry networks to remove extremist content; creating effective counter-discourses; punish and penalize condoning terrorism and violent extremism, as well as the intention to join terrorist groups and to plan or practice co-related crimes; prevent travel for joining terrorist groups, detecting and monitoring travel to and from stages of jihadist conflict and halt the return of extremists and jihadists veterans, particularly with increased controls at the EU's external borders and the Schengen area as well record of air passengers; intensify the fight against forms of terrorism financing; accompanying measures and monitoring of returnees; strengthening human and technological resources; the implementation of earlier directives and strengthening the anti-terrorism legislative framework; sending "security consultants" to European representations in sensitive areas; deepen and improve the sharing and exchange of information; strengthen cooperation between European countries and services and collaboration with strategic partners;…

IS Expansion

«O mujahideen in Europe, Australia, and Canada…O mujahideen in Morocco and Algeria…O mujahideen in Khorasan [Afghanistan], the Caucasus, and Iran… you who consider yourselves from amongst its soldiers and patrons…O mujahideen, we call you up to defend the Islamic State….So rise O mujahid. Rise and defend your state from your place wherever you may be. ..…You must strike the soldiers, patrons and troops ... Strike their police, security and intelligence members, as well as their treacherous agents. Destroy their beds. Embitter their lives for them and busy them with themselves…. If you can kill a disbelieving …including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him in any manner or way however it may be…. If you are not able to find an IED or a bullet, then … Smash his head with a rock, or slaughter him with a knife, or run him over with your car, or throw him down from a high place, or choke him, or poison him. Do not lack ….Do not ask for anyone’s advice and do not seek anyone’s verdict. Kill the disbeliever whether he is civilian or military, for they have the same ruling. Both of them are disbelievers. Both of them are considered to be waging war»

(IS Spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani, September 21, 2014)

« If you cannot perform hijrah (immigrate to the Islamic State) for whatever extraordinary reason, then try in your location to organize bay’at (pledges of allegiance) to the Khalifah Ibrahim. Publicize them as much as possible. Gather people in the masajid, Islamic centers, and Islamic organizations, for example, and make public announcements of bay’ah. Try to record these bay’ah and then distribute them through all forms of media including the Internet. It is necessary that bay’ah becomes so common to the average Muslim that he considers those holding pack as grossly abnormal...if you live in a police state that will arrest you over such bay’at, then use means of anonymity to convey your bay’ah to the world. »

(IS instruction to supporters living abroad )

Luis Tomé

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More than 25.000 "foreign fighters" (twice of that went to Afghanistan in the 1980s) of about

100 countries: half from North Africa and Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia (7000), Tunisia

(2500-5000 ), Morocco (1500-3000), Jordan (1500 to 2000), Turkey (1000-1500) or Egypt (600-

750) and also of Iran (50-80).

Also from Russia (1000-1500), Indonesia (520-550), Turkmenistan (360-400), Bosnia and

Herzegovina (350), China (300), Kazakhstan (300), Azerbaijan (100-300) Albania, Kyrgyzstan,

Tajikistan and the Philippines (200 each), Canada (130), USA (100-120), Australia (80-100) or

India (20-25)...

More than 6.000 jihadists from the EU (almost tripling those who were in Syria in late 2013),

from more than 20 countries, incl. France (about 1500), United Kingdom (750), Germany (700),

Belgium (400), the Netherlands (300), Denmark (250), Sweden (200), Spain (60-100), Austria

(100-150 ), Italy (60), Finland (50) as well Luxembourgers, Greeks, Slovaks, Czechs, Irish,

Bulgarian, Lithuanian, Macedonian or Portuguese (15-20)...

Luis Tomé

Afghanistan, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Australia, Belgium,

Bulgaria, Canada, China, Denmark, Egypt, Spain, USA, Philippines,

France, Netherlands, Yemen, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Japan,

Jordan, Lebanon, Libya , Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, UK, Russia,

Sudan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, Turkey, Uzbekistan ...

Luis Tomé

Luis Tomé

Since June 2014, 36 jihadist groups outside Iraq and Syria provided bay'at or expressed allegiance to IS : Mujahideen Timor in Indonesia; Caliphate and Jihad Movement, Jundullah, Tehrik-e-Khalifat e Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan; Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan in Pakistan and Uzbekistan; Ansar al-Khalifah, Bangsmoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, Bangsmoro Justice Movement, Abu Sayaaf e Jemaah Islamiyah in the Philippines; Jund al-Khalifah, al-Huda Battalion in Maghreb of Islam e Soldiers of the Caliphate from Algeria; Al Tawhid Battalion in Afghanistan and Pakistan; Khorasan Pledge, Heroes of Islam Brigade in Khorasan e Leaders of the Mujahid in Khorasan, Afghanistan; Ansar al-Tahweed fi Bilad al-Hind, India; al-I'tisam of the Koran and Sunnah in Sudan; Uqba bin Nafi battalion e Jund al-Khilafah in Tunisia; Jund al-Khilafah in Egypt; Mujahideen Shura Council in the Environs of Jerusalem, the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula; Jund at-Tawheed Wal Khalifah in Bangladesh; Ansar Bait al-Maqdis in Egypt; Islamic Youth Shura Council, Islamic State Libya (Darnah), Lions of Libya, Shura Council of Shabab al-Islam Darnah eIS’s "Tripoli Province" in Libya; Liwa Ahrar al-Sunna in Baalbek, Lebanon; Mujahideen of Yemen e Supporters for the Islamic State in Yemen; Supporters of the Islamic State in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques in Saudi Arabia; Boko Haram, Nigeria.

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Luis Tomé

Currently, there are twelve IS’s wilayats outside Syria and Iraq:

Khorasan (Afghanistan),

al-Jazair in Algeria,

Sinai in Egypt,

Burgah, Tarablus / Tripoli and al-Fizan in Libya,

al-Haramayn in Saudi Arabia,

al -Yaman, Sanaa, Lahij and Shabwa in Yemen, and

Gharba Ifriqiyah in Nigeria.

Other geopolitical impacts and threats

• IS’s expansion has changed the volatile links between jihadist groups as well with insurgent movements in other stages of conflict: Lebanon, Libya, Nigeria, Yemen, Afghanistan ...

• IS’s sectarian attacks have contributed to intensify historic rivalries and conflicts between Sunni and Shiites in other countries (such as Lebanon - IS vs Hezbollah) as well between regional powers (Saudi Arabia vs Iran) ...

• IS's threat to "export" its militants to other regions "inside of his enemies" (Feb 2015, IS announced intention to send to Europe thousands of its militants taking advantage of the migratory flows from Libya) impacts of policies asylum and migration ...

• Web broadens and enhances IS’s propaganda, radicalization and recruitment - "express jihadists"

• Risks associated with "foreign fighters" jihadists return to their countries

• competition between IS and AQ tends to foster or aggravate violent conflicts (West Africa, Libya, Lebanon, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen) and to multiply attacks across the globe in a logic of supremacy vindictive and expansion of the "omnipresence"

IS is now a more serious, more diffuse and more complex threat….

IS dispute to AQ the leadership of global jihadism …

Luis Tomé

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� A "military victory" over IS can even be the simplest to achieve…

� Fragile and unstable states must be quickly stabilized…

� certain conflicts must be urgently contained…

� combating the IS is also ideological and global

� Anti-IS strategy can not be univocal and requires multiple

approaches, multiple instruments on multiple fronts and based on

multiple vectors

� should not only be reactive…

� nor neglecting the fight against al-Qaeda or facilitate the

strengthening of its affiliates

La Sapienza – Università di Roma. May 21, 2015

Luis Toméltome@autonoma.pt

http://observare.ual.pt

The international

expansion of the

Islamic State