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5Foreword

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is proud to present this summary report of the proceedings of the IISS Manama Dialogue 2016: 12th Regional Security Summit, held from 9 to 11 December 2016. This year’s conference was at-tended by delegates from 40 countries, including senior min-isters, top officials, diplomats, political leaders and military and intelligence chiefs. It took place two days after the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council Summit, also in Bahrain, where Theresa May became the first British Prime Minister to ad-dress the Summit. In a marked and significant symmetry, British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson gave the keynote ad-dress at the Manama Dialogue’s opening dinner. He reviewed the history of Britain’s relationship with the Gulf, and Bah-rain in particular, and set the scene for two days of discussion about the role Gulf, Arab and other international actors might play in enhancing security and stability in the region.

The world has moved on significantly since the 2015 IISS Manama Dialogue. The Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, has been pushed back hard in Iraq and Syria. But the broader conflicts in those countries continue, with a sustained Russian role in the latter and growing concern about the expan-

Foreword

6 The IISS Manama Dialogue 2016

sion of Iranian influence. The attraction of extremist ideologies remains a powerful if contested factor in debates about the fu-ture of the Middle East state system. The emergence of Saudi Arabia as a more assertive power, most obviously in Yemen, and the future of Saudi–Iranian relations have also become hot topics. And all this is set against the broader prospect of an incoming United States administration, political turbulence in Europe, new urgency about economic reform and continu-ing pressure on global energy producers. Energy prices have shown signs of recovery since the November OPEC meeting in Vienna, but their future direction is still unclear.

The Gulf and wider Middle East continue to be the site of major global challenges with serious policy implications, not just for the states of the region but for the US, the EU, Asia and Russia. There is increasing agreement on the need for more effective collective responses. As yet the delivery of such re-sponses is patchy. But the IISS Manama Dialogue remains the most important regional platform helping decision-makers in the region and beyond to reach this goal – through high-level discussions in plenary and special sessions, and the facilita-tion of bilateral contacts. We are again profoundly grateful to the Kingdom of Bahrain and its Foreign Ministry for their gra-cious and continued support, and to all government and non-government participants for their active contributions.

Sir John Jenkins, KCMG LVO Executive Director, IISS–Middle East

12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 9–11 DECEMBER 2016

The IISS Manama Dialogue

CHAPTER 1

Agenda


Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany; and Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France

9Agenda

Friday 9 December 2016

All day Bilateral meetings between ministers and officials

19:00 – 20:00 SKY NEWS ARABIA OPENING TELEVISED PLENARYUS POLICY AND THE FUTURE OF MIDDLE EAST

Chair: Fadila SouissiPresenter, Sky News Arabia

HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Bin Abdulaziz Al SaudChairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia

General (Retd) David PetraeusChairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US

Ayad AllawiVice President, Iraq

Ellen LaipsonDistinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Center, US; Member of the Council, IISS

20:00 – 21:00 OPENING RECEPTION – Grand Foyer

21:00 – 23:00 OPENING DINNER – Al Noor BallroomHosted by: HRH Prince Salman Bin Hamad Bin Isa Al KhalifaCrown Prince of the Kingdom of Bahrain, Deputy Supreme Commander and First Deputy Prime Minister, Kingdom of Bahrain

Opening remarks: Dr John ChipmanDirector-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Keynote Speech: Boris JohnsonSecretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

Agenda


Saturday 10 December 2016

Unless otherwise stated all Plenary Sessions chaired by Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

08:45 – 09:45 FIRST PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomUS POLICY AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY

Dr Ashton CarterSecretary of Defense, US

09:45 – 10:00 Break

10:00 – 11:30 SECOND PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomREGIONAL POWERS AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY

Ayad AllawiVice President, Iraq

Sameh ShoukryMinister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

Sh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al KhalifaMinister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain

11:30 – 12:00 Break

12:00 – 13:30 THIRD PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomCOMBATING EXTREMISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND BEYOND

Dr Ursula von der LeyenMinister of Defence, Germany

Jean-Yves Le DrianMinister of Defence, France

Ng Eng HenMinister for Defence, Singapore

13:30 – 15:30 PRIVATE LUNCH FOR DELEGATION LEADERSTrader Vic’s Restaurant

LUNCH FOR ALL OTHER DELEGATESVilla Gazebo, Ritz Carlton

15:30 – 17:00 FOURTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomWIDENING MIDDLE EASTERN SECURITY PARTNERSHIPS

General (Retd) David PetraeusChairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US

Kentaro SonouraState Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan

17:15 – 18:15 SPECIAL EVENT – Al Ghazal CLAUNCH OF THE IISS DOSSIER ON MISSILE-DEFENCE COOPERATION IN THE GULF

11Agenda

Sunday 11 December2015

09:30 – 11:00 SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS – Al Ghazal Ballrooms

Group I: Stabilising and Rebuilding Yemen – Al Ghazal I

Chair: Sir John JenkinsExecutive Director, IISS–Middle East

General Ali Mohsen Al AhmarVice President, Yemen

Crispin BluntChair, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK

General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al ZayaniSecretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

Group II: Defence Cooperation in the Gulf – Al Ghazal II

Chair: General The Lord Richards of HerstmonceuxSenior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK

Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart PeachChief of the Defence Staff, UK

Vice Admiral Kevin DoneganCommander, US Naval Forces Central Command

Michael EllemanConsulting Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, IISS-Americas

Group III: Conflict and Diplomacy in Syria – Al Ghazal C

Chair: Emile HokayemSenior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS–Middle East

Ümit YalçınUnder Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey

Sigrid KaagSecretary-General’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon, UN

Xie XiaoyanSpecial Envoy on the Syrian Issue, China

Hadi Al BahraFormer President, National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, Syria

Group IV: International Cooperation against Terrorism – Al Ghazal III

Chair: Professor Toby DodgeConsulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Director, Middle East Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science


General Joseph VotelCommander, US Central Command

Philip BartonChair, Joint Intelligence Committee, UK

Falah Mustafa BakirMinister, Department of Foreign Relations, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq

11:00 – 11:30 Break

11:30 – 13:00 FIFTH PLENARY SESSION – Al Noor BallroomTOWARDS A NEW REGIONAL SECURITY ARCHITECTURE

Dr Ahmed Aboul GheitSecretary General, League of Arab States

Sartaj AzizAdviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

13:00 – 14:30 FAREWELL LUNCH FOR ALL DELEGATES – Villa Gazebo

12TH REGIONAL SECURITY SUMMITBAHRAIN, 9–11 DECEMBER 2016

The IISSManama Dialogue

CHAPTER 2

Executive summary


Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK

15Executive summary

Among the most pressing questions for regional security pre-occupying delegates at the IISS Manama Dialogue were the conflicts in Iraq and Syria, the fortunes and influence of ISIS, the emergence of Saudi Arabia as a more assertive power and the future of Saudi–Iranian relations. Looking further afield, the prospect of a new US administration and political turbu-lence in Europe threatened to up-end the existing global polit-ical order, and there were growing calls for economic reform and continuing pressure on global energy producers.

These issues were all central to the scene-setting televised debate and the discussions that followed in the plenary dis-cussions on Saturday and Sunday, and in special sessions on Sunday morning. The debate saw a lively exchange of views on the nature of the challenge from Iran, particularly in Iraq. Also discussed were the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the international agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme, and possible United States responses after the recapture of Mosul.

Saturday morning opened with an address by the out-going US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, reviewing the current US position and achievements, and looking to the

Executive summary


future of collective security in the region. We followed with sessions on the role of other regional powers, collective global action against extremism and the possibility of wider security partnerships. The involvement in these debates of ministers from Singapore and Japan – as well as Europe and the Middle East – gave them added global relevance.

The crowded special sessions gave particular attention to specific and urgent examples of the dialogue’s key themes. Topics covered included approaches to the stabilisation of Yemen, and the Syria crisis in light of the rapidly changing situation in Aleppo. The sessions also addressed defence cooperation in the Gulf after the JCPOA, with a new US presi-dent and Europe under pressure. Participants discussed wider international cooperation against terrorism, in a year featur-ing not only some highly effective and sustained responses to the threat, but also attempts by extremist groups to diversify and spread their activities and ensure against military defeat.

IISS experts contributed to all these discussions. The Institute’s staff continue to produce high-quality analysis and research on all the issues covered, much of which was availa-ble to delegates. A new and comprehensive dossier on missile

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

17Executive summary

defence in the Gulf was launched during the event, and there was a popular interactive display on Military Balance+ – a new online database that will enable users to make faster and better-informed defence decisions.

Keynote Speech‘Britain is back East of Suez ... active in and deeply committed to the region.’ This was the strong message of friendship de-livered by British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson in his open-ing address at the 2016 IISS Manama Dialogue. He went on to say: ‘This is not just about politics, not just about trade, not just about strategic support. This is about building on and in-tensifying old friendships. Britain has been part of [the Gulf] story for the last 200 years, and we will be with you for the centuries to come.’ Johnson’s trip to Bahrain followed visits by Prime Minister Theresa May and the Prince of Wales in the year marking the 200th anniversary of friendship between the United Kingdom and Bahrain. The Foreign Secretary described as a mistake Britain’s decision to disengage from the region in 1968 and made clear that shared interests – in political, economic and military terms – made close coopera-

Boris Johnson, Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, UK


tion more important than ever. In particular, the challenges of regional and global instability required multinational ap-proaches, including a global effort to defeat ISIS. Other chal-lenges in the region included relations with Iran, the security, political and humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and setting the ba-sis for a political solution that would ensure lasting peace in Syria once ISIS was defeated.

Importantly, and in spite of the UK’s growing military presence in the region, renewed military ties with local part-ners and a plan to spend £3 billion in military commitments over the coming decade, the Foreign Secretary was clear that military solutions alone would be insufficient. Instead, he argued for helping local leaders find local answers to the many social and economic challenges faced by the citizens of Gulf countries. He said young people, above all, needed ‘the prospect of an exciting economic future’ and, in this respect, the UK could work closely with regional allies to promote economic opportunities.

Recalling his experiences as Mayor of London, Johnson discussed the impact of the Gulf on the capital, from ever growing investments by Gulf states and businesses to the large number of Gulf students choosing British universities. He also highlighted the UK’s own sales to the region, from cars to retail chains, representing an export market worth £20 billion per year. This made the region Britain’s greatest non-EU export market apart from the United States.

With this in mind, and following Britain’s decision to leave the European Union, Johnson envisaged even stronger com-mercial relations with the region in the future, aided by the possibility of entering new free-trade deals with Gulf partners.

Sky News Arabia Television DebateBefore the formal opening of the 12th IISS Manama Dialogue, delegates and selected speakers took part in a live television debate. Fadila Souissi of Sky News Arabia began by asking the panel how Donald Trump’s election victory would af-

19Executive summary

fect the region. HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal, formerly a senior Saudi diplomat and director-general of the kingdom’s general intelligence directorate, noted the president-elect’s anti-Mus-lim statements but argued the region should wait to see how he acted once in office. Retired United States General David Petraeus concurred, while arguing that the lessons of the last 15 years pointed to the need for continued, sustained engage-ment. Ayad Allawi, the vice president of Iraq, expressed his hope that the next US administration would adopt a policy stance that relied less on the military to beat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.

Dr Ellen Laipson, President Emeritus of the Stimson Center, predicted Trump would maintain greater continuity in office than his campaign rhetoric promised. This included adhering to the position that the root causes of regional mili-tancy had to be solved internally, not by external powers. She warned, however, of a possible dramatic change in US policy towards Iran and the international agreement concerning its nuclear programme.

Embracing the theme of Iran, Prince Turki said the country had not established its credentials in the region as a peaceful

Sky News Arabia Opening Televised Plenary (l–r): Ellen Laipson, Distinguished Fellow and President Emeritus, Stimson Center, US; Member of the Council, IISS; Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq; General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US; Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Saud, Chairman, King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Saudi Arabia; and Fadila Souissi, Presenter, Sky News Arabia


nation set on reconciliation with its neighbours. He claimed that Iranian interference in the region was increasing and noted Tehran’s claims to have captured four Arab governments. Allawi stated that Iran had been exhausted by its interven-tion in other Middle Eastern states and was ready to negotiate, which created an opening for the new US administration.

Laipson urged delegates not to exaggerate Iran’s capacities to threaten its neighbours, and suggested that Arab–Iranian trust could be built by cooperating on issues of common con-cern such as water management. That might in turn create the basis for talks on security matters, she said. Prince Turki rejected that idea, asking how he could cooperate with Iran while it facilitated slaughter in Syria.

Allawi and Petraeus agreed on the importance of building a representative, responsible government for Nineveh prov-ince and Mosul once the battle for the city, now in the hands of ISIS, was won. Petraeus said that in the longer term, he was more concerned by the threat from politically connected mili-tias in Iraq than by ISIS. Allawi and Petraeus also argued for a constructive US approach to Russia in the region. Petraeus said the incoming US president should recognise that the objective of preserving a united Syrian state was no longer tenable; the US objective now should be to halt the fight-ing, and in that regard it might be possible to find common ground with Russia’s interests.

Allawi claimed that Russia was committed to crushing ISIS, despite limited evidence in the region for this assertion, and he called for deeper cooperation with Moscow. Laipson also noted the possibility of Trump reaching an understanding with Russia that would see US support for the Syrian opposi-tion downgraded. Petraeus added that it was vital, however, to maintain support for opposition forces fighting the Islamic State. Yet while his fellow panellists seemed resigned to the possibility of Western states prioritising the fight against the Islamic State over the ouster of Syria’s president, Prince Turki said it was vital to defeat Bashar al-Assad as well as ISIS.

21Executive summary

Dr Ashton Carter, Secretary of Defense, US

First Plenary Session: US Policy and Middle East StabilityUnited States Secretary of Defense Ash Carter opened Satur-day’s proceedings with a confident but sober speech. The con-fidence came in his assertion of steady but marked progress in destroying the strongholds in Iraq and Syria of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Carter said the seizure of Mosul and Raqqa by coalition forces, ‘the primary objective of our military campaign’, would ‘put ISIL on an irrevers-ible path to lasting defeat’. He added that the progress was a result of US actions including consolidating the Iraq and Syria war efforts under a single, unified command, one of numerous recommendations made by Carter and approved by President Barack Obama. Carter said in the previous week the president had also authorised the deployment of approxi-mately 200 new US personnel to Syria. Carter said this would ‘ensure the success of isolating Raqqa, generate sufficient lo-cal forces to seize Raqqa, and deny ISIL sanctuary beyond Raqqa’. But Carter’s tone was sober in acknowledging some tensions among anti-ISIS coalition forces. He said the US was first and foremost pursuing its own interests in the Middle East, which were not always the same as those of individual


nations in the region. But he added that ‘more often than not, [interests] overlap or can be aligned’. Carter said this was important because, in the campaign against the Islamic State and elsewhere, lasting success would only be achieved if lo-cal forces secured territory and local governance took hold. Hence the US would focus on enabling local forces.

Carter pointed out that the US has growing commitments in Europe and Asia, and said there were ‘imperfections’ in the response to ISIS from some partners in the Middle East. While he praised NATO countries and the Iraqi government, including the Kurdistan Regional Government, he said some regional powers had not performed to their full potential. Alluding to recent tensions between the Obama administra-tion and Arab governments over such matters as the Syrian civil war and the nuclear deal with Iran, Carter added: ‘I would ask you to imagine what US military and defence lead-ers think when they have to listen to complaints sometimes that we should do more, when it’s plain to see that all too often, the ones complaining aren’t doing enough themselves.’

In the discussion that followed, Dr Ebtesam Al Ketbi, President of the Emirates Policy Center, argued that the US lacked a strategy for the period after the defeat of ISIS. IISS Council Chairman François Heisbourg asked Carter to reflect on lessons from President Obama’s ‘red-line crisis’ over Syria’s use of chemical weapons, suggesting this was the pivotal moment that led to a greater Russian role in the war. Carter went on to say that Arab countries needed to invest more in ground forces, suggesting that investment in air capabilities was already robust. He also argued that collective ballistic missile defence capabilities among Gulf Cooperation Council countries would ‘really make sense’. He denied the accusation that America was focused on tactics rather than strategy, but added there were limits to what the US could do. Regarding the red-line crisis, he countered that ‘many moments’ had brought the region to its current situation.

23Executive summary

Donald Trump’s name went unspoken during Carter’s speech and the subsequent question and answer session, even though the billionaire was set to assume the US presidency the following month. But the outgoing defence secretary did appear to lay down some markers on the need for American forces to counter potential ‘Russian aggression and coercion, especially in Europe’. Carter also said Moscow had neither promoted political transition in Syria nor fought ISIS, but rather ‘inflamed the civil war and prolonged the suffering of the Syrian people’ – a very different assessment of Russian behaviour to Trump’s. And in a message that was probably intended for the new administration as well as regional part-ners, he insisted that the US ‘has interests here that it cannot walk away from’.

Second Plenary Session: Regional Powers and Middle East StabilityIn the second plenary session, Iraqi Vice President Ayad Allawi emphasised the nexus between stability and security, and out-lined the need for united societies, rejecting groups that seek division, as well as independent judiciaries and action to com-

Ayad Allawi, Vice President, Iraq


bat poverty. Iraq has rich natural resources but has suffered from external interference, he said, and interventions from ac-tors including Iran forced citizens to hide within their tribes. Allawi also lamented what he labelled the ‘fake Arab Spring’. He called for a new regional conference aimed at reconcilia-tion. Iran would need to be a positive player in this, and states should plan for a true Arab Spring that reflected popular will and ensured stability, security and sustainable development.

Sameh Shoukry, Egyptian Foreign Minister, said the Middle East was at a turbulent stage in its history and required clear guiding principles. These should include orderly change and addressing the rise of terrorism. He said the Arab Spring was well intentioned but undermined institutions of the nation-state, producing a vacuum that was filled by groups that employed terrorism. These groups should have been more representative and inclusive, he argued. Shoukry said the Israel–Palestine issue remained a top priority, and that solidarity among the region’s Arab states was vital.

Finally Sheikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, the host nation’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, reported on the 37th Gulf Cooperation Council summit held in Bahrain days earlier. The

Sameh Shoukry, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Egypt

25Executive summary

event set a goal of building a common market in the region within ten years. Security and defence relationships are para-mount, Sheikh Khalid said. Bahrain had also hosted the first ever Gulf Cooperation Council–United Kingdom (UK) sum-mit, at which UK Prime Minister Theresa May expressed a commitment to the Gulf that was more than transactional.

Sheikh Khalid decried the troubles that had befallen Iraq and Syria, and declared Turkey had been held back by prob-lems in Syria. He said Iran, which used to be a bastion of stability, systematically sought to use every regional dispute to its advantage. He added that Iran’s doctrine of velayat-e-faqih, under which all Shi’ites are subject to the country’s supreme leader, must not be allowed to extend beyond its borders. He said Bahrain was seeking a security architecture for the region that included every country, but if Iran wanted to be part of the group it would need to abandon interference.

Responding to questions, Shoukry said Egypt understood the special nature of its relations with Saudi Arabia, and press reports suggesting divergence and an Egyptian move toward Iran were incorrect. Egypt’s relations with Iran remained sev-ered. The rumour that Egypt resold its French-built Mistral

Sh Khalid Bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bahrain


helicopter carriers to Russia was also false. Shoukry said the fight against terrorism in the Sinai was going well and Egyptian forces were capable of handling it without outside help. Egypt’s policy on the Syria crisis was not to support any side, but to recognise the will of the Syrian people.

Allawi said Iraq welcomed the participation of other actors, except terrorists. He saw signs of Iraqis rejecting sectar-ianism, and believed that the issue was not divisions between Sunni and Shia but disenfranchisement. Iran’s intervention in other countries could not be accepted, but neither was it good to isolate the country. The nuclear accord with Iran should have been linked to security and stability in the region. He said that during the previous decade, the United States had not been a proactive player in the Middle East, turning a blind eye to Iran’s activities. America should understand the need to apply pressure, Allawi said.

Sheikh Khalid agreed that it would be unwise for the US to rip up the nuclear accord, which would play into Iran’s hands and legitimise its misdeeds. As for Israel, it would be welcome in the region after it accepted Palestine as an inde-pendent state.

Third Plenary Session: Combating Extremism in the Middle East and BeyondIn the third plenary session, three panellists proposed con-structive steps to combat terrorism in the Middle East and around the world. Terrorism is ‘global in scope and regional in character,’ German Federal Minister of Defence Ursula von der Leyen said. She declared that the social and ideological dimensions of terrorism must be addressed alongside the as-pects that could be fought by military means. Von der Leyen called on leaders of Islamic countries to promote the argu-ment that Islam stands for peace and tolerance. She said that since terrorists had weaponised social media, ‘we must take up the fight in cyberspace’. Addressing the need to strike a balance between security and free speech, she urged her audi-

27Executive summary

ence to tell authentic local stories that would dismantle the extremists’ lies and convince a global audience.

Singapore’s Minister for Defence Dr Ng Eng Hen also called for greater engagement with countries in the Middle East, to counter the ideology and propaganda of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. He welcomed the group’s loss of territory in the region, but feared its defeat in Iraq and Syria would heighten the threat in Southeast Asia. He explained that more than 1,000 Southeast Asian fighters cur-rently in Iraq and Syria were ‘ready to create a caliphate’ in their region of origin. He proposed that in addition to exist-ing regional cooperation, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must intensify efforts to share intelligence.

France’s Minister of Defence Jean-Yves Le Drian called on the international community to be resolute in its response to terrorism. He reminded the audience that terrorism’s ultimate objective was to ‘destabilise the state’, and that the growth of terrorist groups largely depended on the weakness of the state. That is why, he added, combating terrorism required concerted efforts but also adherence to international law. He insisted that ISIS’s religious dogmatism must be destroyed,

Dr Ursula von der Leyen, Minister of Defence, Germany


and that this called for specific responses focusing on religious education. He praised efforts by the United Arab Emirates in this domain, remarking on the counter narrative campaign led by the Sawab Center. He said France had a similar initia-tive called ‘Stop-Djihadisme’, which had yielded promising results on the de-radicalisation front.

Questions from the audience enriched the discussion. Suhail Al Gosaibi of the Bahrain Foundation for Dialogue pointed to the susceptibility of European youth to extreme groups, while Dr Ibtesam Al Ketbi from the UAE com-mented that extremism among young people was not a result of economic hardship, but caused by double standards in Western policies towards the region. He pointed to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and the destruction of Aleppo as examples. François Heisbourg of IISS said the West’s coop-eration with Kurds fighting ISIS might in the future show the weakness of the Sykes–Picot Agreement.

Von der Leyen noted that while ‘we admire the cour-age of the Kurds’, Germany believed that a unified Iraq was better for all its people, and Le Drian was hopeful that the dialogue between Iraq and Kurdish authorities would

Ng Eng Hen, Minister for Defence, Singapore

29Executive summary

prove constructive for the future. He also agreed with Dr Al Ketbi that economic deprivation did not explain terrorism, noting that French foreign fighters were often educated but might have been susceptible to radicalisation. Drawing on Singapore’s experience in integrating people of different races and religions, Dr Ng said social solutions need not always conform to the ideals of Western democracies, and that Singapore’s harmonious diversity was premised on a policy of enforcing racial and religious quotas.

Fourth Plenary Session: Widening Middle Eastern Security PartnershipsThe fourth plenary session was opened by the State Minis-ter for Foreign Affairs of Japan, Kentaro Sonoura. He under-scored the close relationship between the Middle East and East Asia, but suggested increasing globalisation raised the risk of security threats spreading.

Sonoura argued that the connections between the two regions relied on dependable maritime transport – more than 50% of Middle East exports went to Asia, and nearly 40% of Middle East imports came from Asia. He said there

Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Defence, France


were common security problems, including nuclear prolifera-tion. But he contrasted Iran’s recent acceptance of a nuclear deal with North Korea’s continued defiance over the issue. Sonoura said greater international pressure on North Korea, including from beyond the region, was needed. By the same token, Japan would continue to offer economic incentives for Iran to stick to its agreement. It would also encourage Iran to play a constructive regional role.

The minister raised the issue of maritime security in the South and East China Seas, and efforts to change the status quo there. He said Japan would pursue non-military efforts to improve security in the Middle East through capacity-building and development aid in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan. But he also emphasised particular Japanese contributions to maritime security efforts, including counter-piracy operations and other combined missions.

Retired General David Petraeus, formerly the director of the CIA and head of United States Central Command, outlined four main objectives for wider regional partnering. These included maintaining the free flow of energy from the region (still a vital US national interest despite the country’s

Kentaro Sonoura, State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan

31Executive summary

increased energy self-sufficiency) and defeating terrorism. The list also included preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and countering what General Petraeus called ‘Iran’s malign activities’, which he said were increasing. Petraeus argued that, beyond counter-terrorism, partnering efforts should include maritime security and counter-piracy, counter-trafficking, and gradually knitting together defence and early warning capabilities. He emphasised the need for organisational, command and control, and intelligence architectures, and the need to turn strong bilateral relationships into multilateral ones. This had been happening for decades, he said, but only sporadically. US leadership through central command was an important facilitator, he argued, and the evolving threats showed the need to knit together partnerships both within the region and beyond, while the region itself remained of critical importance to the wider world.

Petraeus was asked whether in previous remarks he had advocated an organised partition of Syria, and also what the US position on Iran would now be, while British MP Nadhim Zahawi asked how to pursue a political track in the aftermath

General (Retd) David Petraeus, Chairman, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co, US


of the battle for Mosul in Iraq. Sir John Jenkins, the session chair and executive director of IISS–Middle East, asked what the role of China would be, given its huge economic penetra-tion in the region.

In response, Sonoura re-emphasised Japan’s non-mili-tary role in capacity-building in areas vacated by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Petraeus said it was not too late for a political solution in Syria, but time was running out. He added that rather than pursuing objectives that may not be achievable, the overriding goals should be defeating ISIS and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, and stopping the bloodshed. On Iran, he said the long-term goal was preventing Iranian nuclear weaponisation. He agreed the importance of getting the political settlement in Mosul right, for the city and Iraq as a whole.

Petraeus stressed the continued significance of American leadership, and the overwhelming capabilities of the US. But he said increasing Chinese interest and activity should come as no surprise. And after China’s special envoy to Syria, Xie Xiaoyan, objected to the fact that Sonoura had raised the issues of the South and East China Seas in the session, Petraeus suggested this underscored the need for further stra-tegic dialogue.

Fifth Plenary Session: Towards a New Regional Security ArchitectureThe concluding plenary session addressed the opportunities and challenges for a new collective security system in the Middle East. The Secretary General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, expressed his scepticism about the elaboration of a new regional system, given the unprec-edented instability and division of the region.

He said the lack of regional consensus was particularly salient in light of the crises in Syria, Iraq, Yemen or Libya but also on the Iran issue. The priority, he stressed, was not to reshape a security architecture but rather to promote dialogue,

33Executive summary

discuss the principles of any future collective arrangements and to launch a Marshall Plan for the Middle East.

Aboul Gheit said the ongoing ‘unbalance of power’ was not favourable to regional stability, which was dramatically affected by tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He called on Iran to amend its expansionist policy and not attempt to dominate the entire Arab world. He also said the presence of non-Arab states (such as Iran, Israel and Turkey) should not undermine the Middle East’s Arab identity, and, more impor-tantly, Shi’ites should not have the opportunity to ‘set up their own Arab league’.

Aboul Gheit identified three conditions for regional sta-bility. Firstly, the principle of state sovereignty should be respected. He blamed Iran for relying on ‘sects’ to destabi-lise the region. He called for a new Westphalia agreement, without any external interference and respecting the prin-ciples of democracy, good governance and the protection of minorities. Secondly, he warned against the death of the Sykes–Picot agreement and the attempts to change the historical Arab nation-states’ borders. Contesting the inde-pendence aspirations of some communities (including the

Dr Ahmed Aboul Gheit, Secretary General, League of Arab States


Kurds), he mentioned decentralised systems as a possible solution that would protect communities while preserving the state structure.

Thirdly, he insisted on the need to solve the ongoing Israeli–Arab conflict, which was still feeding injustice and extremism. He said the Israeli occupation was comparable to the Iranian occupation of the Middle East, and Israeli nuclear deterrence was a sign of double standards in the region.

Pakistan’s Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Sartaj Aziz, stressed that a regional security architecture must be a collective design based on a comprehensive approach. He called for the containment of xenophobia and nationalism, and the adaptation of collective security measures to meet new challenges, in particular terrorism. Aziz argued that the success of the Pakistani counter-terrorist policy was thanks to multidimensional military operations, well-coordinated intel-ligence and strong support from political parties.

Aziz praised the close relationships between Pakistan and Gulf Cooperation Council countries enhancing trade, eco-nomic migration and defence. He said Pakistan could play the role of a ‘balancer’ to enhance the Gulf’s security framework.

Sartaj Aziz, Adviser to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs, Pakistan

35Executive summary

Located at the crossroads of the Gulf–Asia route, the country enjoyed a strategic position that might be useful for the Gulf region in three ways. Firstly, Pakistan could share its experi-ence in countering violent extremism. Secondly, it could be a mediator or a facilitator between Muslim countries. Thirdly, it could contribute to the strengthening of economic relation-ships between Asia and the Gulf.

Answering a question on Pakistan’s relationships with Iran and his country’s refusal to join the Saudi Arabia-led intervention in Yemen, Aziz explained that his country ‘has excellent relations with the Gulf, Iran is our neighbour, [and] a large percentage of our population is Shi’ites, so we are han-dling this relationship with Iran very delicately’.

Special Session 1: Stabilising and Rebuilding Yemen The first special session assessed a subject raised at various times over the weekend. Yemen’s strategic location and the humanitarian suffering in the country currently made its crisis important, said one speaker, while another participant indicated that the complexity of the situation in Yemen made it harder for policymakers to find solutions. Discussions

(l–r): Sir John Jenkins, Executive Director, IISS–Middle East; and General Ali Mohsen Al Ahmar, Vice President, Yemen


focused on the humanitarian effects of the violence on Yemen’s population and the broader impact on the country’s infrastructure, and economic and political future, as well as the measures being taken at regional and international levels to alleviate human suffering.

Recent Yemeni politics formed a backdrop to the ses-sion, with speakers tracing various national, regional and international political initiatives designed to end the fighting and arrive at a political solution; speakers also posited rea-sons for the failure of these initiatives to date. While the high level of international support for Yemen and the government of President Hadi was noted, the influence of certain outside actors was also highlighted, with Iran identified by one panel-list as supplying weapons to Houthi rebels.

One speaker praised the response to Houthi military moves against President Hadi in 2014 by Gulf Cooperation Council states, led by Saudi Arabia, as ‘an urgent and neces-sary intervention’.

But regional states were also trying to put the political process back on track, with one panellist highlighting the draft constitution (created in Abu Dhabi) that would lead

(l–r): Crispin Blunt, Chair, Foreign Affairs Select Committee, House of Commons, UK; and General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Secretary General, Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

37Executive summary

– one participant noted – to a federated Yemen of six regions. It was also important to consider ways of rebuilding Yemen’s security institutions, and to improve the transparency and accountability of aid. Its delivery would reduce instability, and could be achieved in a decentralised way, in coordination with the government and private sector.

However, rebuilding and assistance were needed imme-diately – not at the end of the conflict. It was suggested this work could take place in specific areas as soon as they were free of violence. This would allow assistance to arrive quickly and also demonstrate the benefits of peace to the broader pop-ulation; it could also improve stability and security.

Special Session 2: Defence Cooperation in the GulfDespite recent progress, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face obstacles addressing the region’s threats and security challenges.

The special session on defence cooperation considered the aims of the GCC’s militaries to work more closely together, identifying areas of success and those where greater progress was required.

(l–r): General The Lord Richards of Herstmonceux, Senior Adviser for the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, IISS; former Chief of the Defence Staff, UK; and Air Chief Marshal Sir Stuart Peach, Chief of the Defence Staff, UK


The maritime domain was highlighted as providing a potential model for closer cooperation between GCC mem-bers and their partner nations. The Combined Maritime Forces provides three task forces covering counter-terrorism and counter-piracy roles, and brings together the GCC states and a wider coalition. Some 31 nations work together under the Combined Maritime Forces banner.

Ballistic missile defence was suggested as another area ripe for immediate cooperation. The United States has long encouraged GCC members to work better together to coun-ter and deter Iran’s substantial conventionally armed ballistic missile arsenal. While GCC nations have invested in missile defence, their systems are structured at a national level, even though a regional sensor and missile interceptor architecture would be far more effective.

The issue of command and control, a core element of bal-listic missile defence and any effective military capability, was also the subject of discussion. While military leaders under-stand that efficient command and control is critical, concerns were raised that this was not sufficiently understood in the wider political community.

(l–r): Vice Admiral Kevin Donegan, Commander, US Naval Forces Central Command; and Michael Elleman, Consulting Senior Fellow for Missile Defence, IISS-Americas

39Executive summary

Joint training and exercises were also suggested as a means of furthering cooperative ambitions, for example by building trust across national borders.

Even in areas such as the maritime domain where closer cooperation was evident, other concerns remained. It was claimed that GCC states continued to under-invest in their maritime forces structure.

Special Session 3: Conflict and Diplomacy in SyriaThis session assessed the state of the conflict in Syria and the prospect of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

The military and political repercussions of Aleppo’s fall to government and allied forces were central to the discussion. It was agreed that a regime victory in Aleppo would not signal the end of the armed opposition, but the opening of a new, more complex chapter in the country’s civil war.

Whether and how regional supporters of the rebellion would continue their support was of crucial importance. Participants stressed the major contribution of foreign fighters to the Assad military effort, notably Iranian-backed militias from Lebanon, Iraq and elsewhere. Speakers said that while

(l–r): Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS–Middle East; and Ümit Yalçın, Under Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Turkey


international attention was currently focused on Jabhat Fateh al-Sham and the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, it should also recognise the role played by the militias.

Participants agreed on the urgent need for a cease-fire and United Nations humanitarian assistance, and on the importance of isolating and fighting UN-listed terror-ist groups. However, they said the need to differentiate between legitimate rebel and terrorist groups was paramount to any international effort. Scepticism over Russia’s claims to be fighting ISIS and Jabhat Fateh al-Sham abounded, but Russia’s intervention made it the central actor in this conflict. Differences between Iran and Russia could be exploited in the future, participants thought, but their alignment seemed strong and enduring. The regional consequences of the con-flict were also highlighted, notably the security, political and financial costs shouldered by Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey.

It was recommended that the UN adopt a new approach to solving the conflict, with the organisation’s incoming sec-retary-general leading the mediation himself. It was widely agreed that US–Russian geostrategic agreement was required for any real progress to take place, but the likely substance

(l–r): Sigrid Kaag, Secretary General’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon, UN; and Xie Xiaoyan, Special Envoy on the Syrian Issue, China; and Hadi Al Bahra, Former President, National Coalition of Syrian Revolution and Opposition Forces, Syria

41Executive summary

and parameters of such an understanding were unclear, in part because of the unpredictability of the incoming Trump administration. A political solution remained the only viable way to end the conflict, although the key parties differed on what such a solution would contain. But they agreed only a political deal would allow for the return of refugees and a programme of international reconstruction assistance.

Special Session 4: International Cooperation Against TerrorismThe fourth special session considered the challenges to im-proving intelligence sharing and, more broadly, international interstate cooperation in the fight against terror. Participants agreed that a common definition of ‘terrorism’ was needed in order to identify the threat and its future. Then it would be important to focus on factors explaining the emergence of the threat rather than on specific groups.

In cooperating, participants thought states should try to reduce ungoverned or poorly governed spaces in countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and Afghanistan, and build a counter-narrative against the ideology used by terrorist

(l–r): Professor Toby Dodge, Consulting Senior Fellow for the Middle East, IISS; Director, Middle East Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science; and General Joseph Votel,Commander, US Central Command


recruiters. Terror groups’ ability to use the internet as a mul-tifunctional tool, inspiring and directing supporters, was identified as a particular challenge.

Therefore, states would need to invest in long-term strat-egies taking into account the need to be consistent, patient and to provide resources. Five to six years previously the focus had been on Afghanistan, but attention had then shifted to Syria and the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. Nevertheless, that does not mean that the risk of international terrorism has disappeared from Afghanistan. Participants also discussed the issue of information sharing between govern-ment agencies: there was no global list of individuals fighting for ISIS in Syria.

The United States’ position is that the training of counter-terrorist forces is key to improving the capability of its allies and local forces, who can lead the battle against terrorism at local and regional levels. Indeed, terrorism is a regional prob-lem and as such there is only a regional solution. Regarding the ideological dimension of the fight against terrorism, all speak-ers stressed education as the key element in responding to the brainwashing of young people by terror groups such as ISIS.

(l–r): Philip Barton, Chair, Joint Intelligence Committee, UK; andFalah Mustafa Bakir, Minister, Department of Foreign Relations, Kurdistan Regional Government, Iraq

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