the internet in developing nations: a grand challenge larry press professor, is csu dominguez hills
Post on 19-Dec-2015
212 views
TRANSCRIPT
The Internet in Developing Nations: A Grand Challenge
Larry PressProfessor, ISCSU Dominguez Hills
A grand challenge: connecting the world’s rural villages
Larry PressProfessor, ISCSU Dominguez Hillshttp://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/
Measuring and Reducing the Digital Divide: a Grand Challenge
Larry PressProfessor, ISCalifornia State University, Dominguez
Background
We have done Training Pilot studies ICT readiness assessments Conferences and workshops
Outline Background Village applications and business
models Backbone architecture and
feasibility Project policies (lessons learned
from NSFNet) Conclusion – G8
Outline
A decade of activity Where are we? A grand challenge: connect all
villages The NSFNet strategy Cabled and wireless technologies Why Bangladesh?
Outline A decade of activity The NSF approach Architecture and feasibility Village models and applications Action plan – WSIS
Outline
A decade of measurement activity Time for action – a grand challenge:
• Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
• 3 billion people
• 3 million villages
A Grand Challenge
Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
3 billion people
3 million villages
Grand challenges
I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth.
John F. Kennedy, 1961 That's one small step for a man, one
giant leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969
Grand Challenges
I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth.
John F. Kennedy, 1961 That's one small step for a man, one
giant leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969
A Grand Challenge
Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
3 billion people
3 million villages
A Grand Challenge
Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
3 billion people
3 million villages
A grand challenge
Connecting the approximately 3 billion people residing in 3 million villages of the developing nations within ten years.
A grand challenge
Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.
A grand challenge
Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.
A grand challenge
Build IP backbones providing high-speed connectivity to and a point of presence in every rural village in every developing nation within ten years.
(There are roughly 3 million villages and 3 billion people in low and lower income nations).
Possible ICT Grand Challenges Provide high-speed IP connectivity
to all villages Provide access to all engineering
and scientific literature and data sets at all universities
A proposal The G8 just pledged to increase African
aid by $25 billion per year. A portion of that increase should be
used for a high-speed Internet backbone to and a point of presence in every African village.
There are 3 billion people in 3 million villages in developing nations
1990s hypothesis Computer networks can improve the
quality of life in developing nations at a relatively low cost
Marginal impact increased by a lack of alternative ICT and transportation
Raising the quality of rural life will reduce pressure for urban migration
1990s Hypothesis Computer networks could improve
life in developing nations at a relatively low cost
Marginal impact could be relatively great due to a lack of alternative ICT
Raising the quality of rural life will reduce migration pressure
This motivated 15 years work
ICT measurement and readiness studies
Pilot applications and business models
Training Conferences and workshops
Background
Over a decade of activity
We have done Training Pilot studies ICT readiness assessments Conferences and workshops
Over a decade of activity Early hypothesis Experience with applications
supporting those hypothesis
E-readiness assessments
10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies
8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least
once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5
times 10 nations have been assessed at least
10 times
DOI vs. average of other indices
Correlation coefficient = .96
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40
DOI
Av
era
ge
of
oth
er
ind
ice
s
Successful Applications
Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and human rights E-government News and entertainment
Where are we? Many applications have been
demonstrated. The Internet is on the “radar
screen” But the digital divide persists Capital is not available
Early successes, still operating Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and Human Rights E-government Entertainment
IP Connectivity, 2003
Income
Population Subscribers
Per 100
Low 2,413 5,424 .22
Lower middle
2,393 69,762 2.92
Upper middle
331 12,150 3.68
High 961 216,069 22.48
World 6,097 303,405 4.98
Internet subscribers, 2003
Income
Population Subscribers
Per 100
Low 2,413 5,424 .22
Lower middle
2,393 69,762 2.92
Upper middle
331 12,150 3.68
High 961 216,069 22.48
World 6,097 303,405 4.98
Cannot attract private capital Cost of 20 hours access as percent
of average monthly GNI per capita
Low income nations
246.4
Lower middle income
24.9
Upper middle income
8.6
High income 1.6
On the “radar screen”
Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet
(risks too)
On the “radar screen”
Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet
(risks too)
Mosaic dimensions
After 10-15 years work We have evidence that the
hypothesis is true The digital divide persists Capital is not available The Internet is on the “radar
screen” – all governments recognize the communication-development link
On the “radar screen”
Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet
Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well aware of the role of communication in development
Time for action
We have done
ICT readiness assessments Pilot studies Training Conferences and workshops
E-readiness assessments
10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies
8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least
once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5
times 10 nations have been assessed at least
10 times
“State of” Annuals
How to proceed? The NSF approach Architecture and feasibility Village models and applications Action plan – WSIS
After 10-15 years work We have evidence that the
hypothesis is true The digital divide persists Capital is not available The Internet is on the “radar
screen” – all governments recognize the communication-development link
Connectivity, 1991
Internet diffusion, 9/1991
Internet diffusion, 6/1997
Generic Digital Divide
The “digital divide” persists
We have done
ICT readiness assessments Pilot studies Training Conferences and workshops
Where are we? Many applications have been
demonstrated. The Internet is on the “radar
screen” But the digital divide persists Capital is not available
Where are we? The digital divide persists Capital is not available Many applications have been
demonstrated The Internet is on the “radar
screen”
An unconnected nation No national backbone network No residential connectivity No commercial application Character-oriented email and news
primary applications Connectivity only in a few universities
The US in 1989
On the “radar screen”
Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet
Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well aware of the role of communication in development
Time for action
On the “radar screen”
Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet
(risks too)
On the “radar screen”
Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet
Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also
On the G8 “radar screen” Established Digital Opportunity
Task Force at the 2000 Summit Japan pledged $15 billion
On the “radar screen:” WSIS Connect villages with ICTs and
establish community access points by 2015
Nine other targets related to ICT
On the “radar screen:” UN Millennium Development Goal In cooperation with the private
sector make available the benefits of new technologies, specifically information and communications.
Successful Applications
Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and human rights E-government News and entertainment
Village models and applications
Three successful approaches in the village Corporate owner, single
application “Franchise” centers State owned
Many successful pilots
Sustainable approaches to village Internet centers
Corporate owner, single application
“Franchise” centers State owned
N-Logue rural Kiosk Remote medicine Remote veterinary Remote agricultural
advice E-government E-mail digital photography desktop publishing Telephony Break even at
$75/mo.
YCC mobile unit
Cuban Youth Computer Clubs
350 YCCs Geographicall
y dispersed Education Games Email News
YCC mobile unit
E-choupal home page
E-choupal services
Login Weather Crop best practices Market related information Agricultural queries Suggestion box Farmer profile Government schemes News
E-Chaupal
ITC, an Indian conglomerate (agribusiness, infotech, hotels, etc.)
Remote centers at agricultural hub locations
Savings in logistics and middlemen Payback time 8 months to 2 years Using VSAT and a single application
Early successes, still operating Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and Human Rights E-government Entertainment
Education Youth Computer Clubs, Cuba
http://www.jovenclub.cu/ Enlaces Network, Chile
http://www.redenlaces.cl/
Health care Healthnet Satellife
http://www.healthnet.org Healthnet in Nepal
http://www.healthnet.org.np/
E-commerce Soviet Union: Relcom (96/391
commercial accounts, 9/91) www.relcom.ru
Information Village research project http://www.mssrf.org/
Software export from developing nations
E-government
Democracy and Human Rights
From Relcom during the 1991 Soviet Coup attempt:
“They try to close all mass media. They stopped CNN an hour ago, and Soviet TV transmits opera and old movies.”
“Yes, we already prepared to shift to underground; you know -- reserve nodes, backup channel, hidden locations. They'll have a hard time catching us!”
Entertainment and connection to the outside world
Many quips: quick-impact projects
International Development Research Centre http://www.idrc.ca/
Information for Development Program, Infodev http://www.infodev.org/
Development Gateway http://www.developmentgateway.org/
Sustainable Development Networking Program http://www.sdnp.undp.org/
NSFNet approach and strategy
Project policies – lessons learned from NSFNet
An unconnected nation No national backbone network No residential connectivity No commercial application Character-oriented email and news
primary applications Connectivity only in a few universities
The US in 1989
The NSFNet Approach
Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States.
The NSFNet Approach
NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States.
Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
The NSFNet Strategy
Build backbone Fund connectivity (POP, router and
link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education
networks Users in control
The NSFNet Approach
NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States.
Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
The NSFNet Strategy
Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125 million Expert designers on temporary assignment Users in control – IP protocol implies
decentralized funding and innovation
The NSFNet Strategy
Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125 million Users in control – IP protocol implies design Expert designers on temporary assignment
NSFNet – seeding the Internet
Build backbone connecting key sites Fund connectivity and POP (router
and a link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education
networks First IP backbone – seeded the
Internet
NSFNet T1 Backbone, 1991
The NSFNet Approach
NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States.
Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.
NSFNet – seeding the Internet
Build backbone connecting key sites Fund connectivity and POP (router
and a link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education
networks First IP backbone – seeded the
Internet
The NSFNet Strategy
Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSFnet $125 million total cost
Users in control – IP protocol implies decentralized funding and innovation
R&D project – expert designers on temporary assignment, not government staff
Highly leveraged:Government funding ($million)
Project Cost
Morse telegraph .03
ARPANet 25
CSNet 5
NSFNet backbone 57.9
NSF higher ed connections
30
NSF international connections
6
User control Universities designed their LANs Universities funded their LANs Universities trained their users Users invented applications –
innovation at the edges of the network
A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a design philosophy as well as a protocol.
NSFNet with regional links
NSFNet
Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router
and a link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education
networks
Highly leveraged:Government funding ($million)
Project Cost
Morse telegraph .03
ARPANet 25
CSNet 5
NSFNet backbone 57.9
NSF higher ed connections
30
NSF international connections
6
User control Universities designed their LANs Universities funded their LANs Universities trained their users Users invented applications –
innovation at the edges of the network
A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a design philosophy as well as a protocol.
Areas of expertise for GRNetGeographic Information Systems Local GeographyTerrestrial wireless design and practiceFiber optic design and installationNetwork operation center designNetwork modeling and optimizationSatellite research and practiceHigh altitude platform research and practiceVillage POP configuration designTraining for POP operationDesign of solar and other power systemsSpectrum politics and policyMechanical design for radio towersVillage telecommunication centers and applications
Expert designers on temporary assignment
UCLA MIT SRI BBN NSF Michigan Etc.
NSFNet
Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router
and a link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education
networks
NSFNet Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router
and a link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education
networks
Technologies Cabled Wireless today Wireless to consider
Backbone architecture and feasibility
Architecture and feasibility
Fiber Backbone, Mesh, POPs
Fiber where possible – follow the roads
Use cable links where possible
Use fiber wherever possible
Wireless technology Today
VSAT Various terrestrial technologies
Soon WiMAX
Worth investigating High altitude platforms LEO constellations GIS-based radiation modeling
VSAT
High-Altitude Platform
Sanswire HAP
Sanswire HAP 245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months
Sanswire progress May 2005: floating tests July 2005: joint venture to deploy
five platforms in Colombia
FiberAfrica 70,000 Km fiber core 30,000 Km fiber spurs Wireless to fiber Reach 400 million Walking/bicycling
distance 1 billion dollars
Daunting, but with precedents
Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: 1.889 US Interstate Highway system: 128.9 Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium: .581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new)
Wireless technology Today
VSAT Proprietary terrestrial technologies
Soon WiMAX – may unify terrestrial
wireless Worth watching
High altitude platforms Constellations of LEO satellites
LEO constellation
Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: 1.889 US Interstate Highway system: 128.9 Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium: .581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new funds)
WiMAX may unify wide-area terrestrial wireless
License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user)? Global regulatory conformity? “Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi? “Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular? “Competition” from new license-free
bands
WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from 802.11 “Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular “Competition” from new license-
free bands
Sanswire HAP
Sanswire HAP 245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months
Sanswire progress May 2005: floating tests July 2005: joint venture to deploy
five platforms in Colombia
Radiation modeling with GIS
Wireless supplements VSAT Terrestrial wireless Worth investigating
LEO constellations High altitude platforms GIS-based radiation
modeling
WiMAX – 802.16 Worldwide Interoperability for
Microwave Access Three architectures
Point to point Point to multipoint P to P or P to MP plus mesh
WIMAX Promises Non line of site Up to 50 kilometers Up to 70 mbps 802.20 mobile applications
Unique MAC, modulation, etc?
WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from 802.11 “Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular “Competition” from new license-
free bands
WiMAX may unify wide-area terrestrial wireless
License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user)? Global regulatory conformity? “Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi? “Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular? “Competition” from new license-free
bands
WiFi and WiMAX are version 1 Moore’s Law
Smart radios and antennae FCC has noticed WiFi success NPRM, license-free
3,650-3,700 MHz 25 Watt EIRP
NOI, license-free “White space” TV channels Lower frequency
FCC Wireless Broadband Access Task Force
WiMAX Market Development
BWCS Limited
Wireless technologies to investigate LEO constellations High-altitude platforms Radiation modeling with GIS
Why Bangladesh? Need is great Some positive points
Great need Pent up demand: cable landing,
poor telephone infrastructure (300k users)
Poor people – great marginal impact
Positive points Densely populated – reach with
fiber Railroad right of way Power Grid Company
Positive experience with micro-credit
Government will
2002 Population Density/km2
Bangladesh 925
India 329
Sri Lanka 289
Pakistan 182
Nepal 164
China 134
Myanmar 72
Bhutan 15
Grameen Bank Microcredit
Grameen Phone, since 1993 45 million people in 30,000 villages $300 million with $44m after tax
profit $2 daily profit is over twice BD
average
WEF Global Competitiveness,2003-4 Network readiness index 92/102
National savings rate 34/102 Access to credit 46/102 Inflation 37/102 Local equity market access 35/95 Intensity of local competition 52/95
Government prioritization of ICT 43/102
Workshop goal
Bangladesh backbone POP in every “village” “High speed” Use the NSF approach Detailed, funded proposal by
WSIS
Pondicherry Information Links
E-readiness assessments
10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies
8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least
once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5
times 10 nations have been assessed at least
10 times
Sanswire HAP 245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months
Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: 1.889 US Interstate Highway system: 128.9 Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to
complete Baseball stadium: .581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year
Steps Begin with a pilot nation Design and implement the network
using a team of experts Apply lessons learned to other
nations
Which pilot nation?Strong government support of
telecommunicationOpen, competitive telecommunication marketOpen, competitive business practices and lawsHigh level of povertyHigh level of literacyDense populationHigh-speed international fiber linksStrong university programs in EE, CS, and GISVaried climate and topography
Bangladesh?
+ Densely populated – reach with fiber+ Very poor+ Undersea cable coming+ Extreme climate+ Positive experience with micro-credit- Government will not clear- Low literacy rate- Weak universities
WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from 802.11 “Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular “Competition” from new license-
free bands
Why Bangladesh? Need is great Some positive points
Great need Pent up demand: cable landing,
poor telephone infrastructure (300k users)
Poor people – great marginal impact
The NSFNet Strategy Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router and a
link) Connect
US higher education networks International research and education networks
Highly leveraged -- $125 million Users in control Use expert designers
Which pilot nation?Strong government support of
telecommunicationOpen, competitive telecommunication marketOpen, competitive business practices and lawsHigh level of povertyHigh level of literacyDense populationHigh-speed international fiber linksStrong university programs in EE, CS, and GISVaried climate and topography
Steps Begin with a pilot nation Design and implement the network
using a team of experts
WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from 802.11 “Competition” from 3rd generation
cellular “Competition” from new license-
free bands
Conclusion
Okinawa G8 summit, July 2000 Focused on information and communication
technology Billions of dollars were pledged (Japan alone
promised $15 billion) Digital Opportunity Task Force was formed
"to identify ways in which the digital revolution can benefit all the world's people, especially the poorest and most marginalized groups."
A few reports and no action
We have many of the needed skills -- what is the role/responsibility of AIS in developing nations?
Action plan Network design for a pilot nation Deploy in the network in a pilot Planning for implementation in
other nations. Implementation in those nations.