the internet of flying things - overview
TRANSCRIPT
The Internet of Flying Things S L M Aero
MICHAEL Wm. DENIS
PRINCIPAL
What is the value of the
Internet of Flying Things?
Delays cost the airline industry $5 billion annually.
No Fault Found (NFF) cost airlines an estimated
$185,000 per aircraft per year (~$1.5B commercial + $~2B military
per year, not including schedule and passenger experience impacts).
At less than 3% of the $24 billion civil aviation supply
market, PMA still represents a significant untapped value
for airlines and a strategic threat for OEMs.
A 2% performance improvement from prognostic
capabilities would result in $3.6 billion annual fuel
benefits across the global civil aviation industry.
The average aircraft generates 217,500 pages of
paper over its service lifecycle = $3.9 billion.
Boeing
67% of MRO respondents
surveyed said there is a
shortage of aviation
technicians and engineers
556,000 new technicians
will be required over the next
two decades.
Dissimilar data standards and
regulatory requirements cost the aviation industry
$7.3 billion over the past twenty years.
Current defect monitoring Health Management solutions
represent a $0.4 Billion market with Predictive Maintenance
and Autonomics estimated to exceed $3.2 Billion by 2020
What is the
Internet of Things (IoT)?
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IoT is 50 billion “edge” devices & $14 trillion USD
Copyright © 2015 Gartner, Inc. Copyright © 2015 Jeremy Geelan, Industry of Things
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Everything sensored, connected, mobile & analyzed.
Aviation
Service Lifecycle
Management
Optimization
Internet of Connected Smart Things
Machine-to-Machine
(M2M)Human-to-Machine
(H2M)
Human-to-Human
(H2H)
Networks of Ecosystems
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What is the
Internet of Flying Things?
Predictive Maintenance (PdM)
Predictive Analytics Machine Learning
Failure Prediction & Causal Weightings
Asset Health & Performance Management (AHM/APM)
Case Based Reasoning
Diagnostics & Prescription
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Aviation Total Lifecycle Information Architecture
Positional Logical to Physical HW & SW Configuration Mgt
Physical CM specific Maintenance Program to Clocks & Conditions Mgt
Procedures, Tools / Calibrations, Parts, Equipment, Skills, … Records
Predictive Maintenance Traditional Maintenance
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What should be done when, where, by whom and how. versus What actually was accomplished on what, when, where, by whom and how.
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Predictive Maintenance Capability Maturity
Remote
Condition
Monitoring
Machine
Learning
Prediction
Autonomics
Diagnostic
Prescription
Prognostic
Health
Management
Case
Based
DiagnosticsIncr
eas
ing
Val
ue
($
$$
)
Increasing Value (Actionable Time / Reliability = Risk Reduction)
Sensed Fault to Defect to AOG Identification TimelineIoT =Sense
MonitorPredict
DiagnoseDecide
Respond
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Core Predictive Maintenance = Machine Learning Prediction + Case Based Reasoning Diagnostics
Copyright © 2015 CaseBank Technologies
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Value is created via actionable time, accelerating the decision cycle and enabling autonomic operations
Labor productivity
Material / inventory turns
Component reliability
Maintenance program reliability
Dispatch reliability (punctuality)
Maintenance CPFH stability
Accurate & Precise Knowledge
Actionable Decision Support
Actionable Operational Time
OODA Loop / S&R Loop / IoT Decision Loop
You keep using that word “BigData”
I do not think it means what you think it meansAviation data has Volume & Velocity but not Variety or Veracity
What now / what next?
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Predictive Maintenance was ranked the #1 highest strategic initiative by MRO executives
Copyright © 2015 Oliver Wyman, MRO Survey – Turning the Tide
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Who is best positioned to reap value from Predictive Maintenance capabilities?
Copyright © 2015 Oliver Wyman, MRO Survey – Turning the Tide
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What are the barriers to adoption of Predictive Maintenance capabilities?
Copyright © 2015 Oliver Wyman, MRO Survey – Turning the Tide
But whose data is it?
“Whose data is it? Operational data
(OD) generated by carriers via the use of
assets is the oil that powers advanced
analytics and predictive maintenance.
Operators used to gladly give their OD
to the OEMs because they really had no
methods and tools to "refine" it into
actionable decision knowledge.”
Copyright © 2015 ICF International
The battle over Operational Data
“The Instructions for Continued
Airworthiness (ICA) debate, related
lawsuits and regulatory interventions
have shown operators that operational
data is strategically valuable to
continued innovation within the industry.
Operators have grown weary of every
OEM building asset specific tools that
don't integrate into their flight OPS and
MRO IT systems, and tired of OEM’s
associated astronomical support costs.” Copyright © 2015 ICF International
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And whose value is it? • Flight Operations
• Component Failure (1 day / 3 day flight ops schedule)
• Aircraft Technical Dispatch Reliability (TDR)
• Aircraft Mission Risk (𝐴𝑀𝑅) (1 day / 3 day schedule – non-MEL’able & ILS CAT impact)
• Fleet Mission Risk (σ𝐴𝑀𝑅)
• Aircraft Schedule & Routing Revenue Risk
• Aircraft Swaps given Aircraft & Fleet Mission Risk & Revenue Optimization vs AOGs & Swaps
• Maintenance Operations• Maintenance Task & Package Yield & Escalation
• Visit Package Job Stops (P (𝑆𝑖│ 𝑃(𝑁𝑅 | 𝑅))
• Visit Package Flow
• Engine Specific / Tail Specific Fuel Burn
• Tail Specific / Mission Specific Fuel Load
• Visit Package Job Stops (P (𝑆𝑖│ 𝑃(𝑁𝑅 | 𝑅))
• Flight Operations Fuel Burn for Carbon Trading / EU ETS
• Visit Package Flow
• Bay Slotting & Scheduling
• Bay Day Pricing / Visit Package Pricing
• Task Cards / Maintenance Records XML Archive / JASON conversion
• Contract & Lease Operations• Bridge Check & Regulatory Documentation
• Maintenance Reserves Lease Compliance
• Component / Material Demand
• Component / Material Pricing & Revenue
• Next Part Pricing & Revenue between MRP, SLA, PBL, T&M contracts
• Power by the Hour / Performance Based Logistics contract SLAs
• Insurance Risk Management reduction
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The case for an OEM agnostic Industry solution
“The future of machine learning
predictive maintenance and prognostic
health management is looking more
and more to be an airline led
consortium solution, built by airlines, for
airlines, integrated to airline MRO and
CMS IT systems and designed so that
airlines can share data between
themselves without OEM interference.”
IF WE WIN THE LAST GAME OF THE SEASON, WE CHANGE THE GAME.
THAT’S WHAT I WANT.
I WANT IT TO MEAN SOMETHING.
It’s about information and making probabilistic decisions –we couldn’t afford to invest in something and not get a return. We couldn’t take risk. We had to look at things like an actuary looks at things and understand future decision risk. Moneyball is really about getting the right information to make good decisions.
Billy Beane, General Manager, Oakland As
www.linkedin.com/in/michaelwdenis
Read More at:
M: +01 678.524.8289
L: www.linkedin.com/in/michaelwdenis
MICHAEL Wm. DENIS
PRINCIPAL
S L M AEROSERVICE LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT