Electoral Studies (1991), 10.2, 155-157

The Irish Presidential Election of 1990

NEIL COLLINS

Magee College, University of Ulster, Derty, Northern Ireland

On 7 November 1990, the leftist independent, Mary Robinson won the first presidential election in the Republic of Ireland since 1973. She had a comfortable victory, after the second count, over Fianna Fail’s Brian Lenihan and Fine Gael’s Austin Currie.

A victory for MS Robinson seemed very unlikely when she launched her campaign in May 1990. Brian Lenihan, on the other hand, was regarded as a certain winner until the final weeks of the campaign. He became embroiled, however, in a controversy about attempts in 1982 by Fianna Fail to put unconstitutional pressure on the incumbent President Hillery. Mr Lenihan’s explanation of his conduct at that time was regarded by many electors with scepticism and disbelief. The week before the presidential poll Lenihan was removed from his posts of Tanaiste (deputy prime minister) and Minister of Defence. This followed parliamentary pressure from the opposition parties and from Fianna Fail’s junior partners in the coalition govern- ment, the Progressive Democrats.

Candidates and Issues

The President of Ireland may hold office for two periods of seven years. After the first term he may re-nominate himself though other nominees need the support of 20 members of the national legislature. An alternative means of nomination, relying on local government, has never been used. Effectively presidential nominations are controlled by the political parties and following inter-party agreement, contests have been avoided on 5 of 10 occasions. The office of the President in its present form was introduced under the 1937 Constitution and there have been six occupants before MS Robinson. The President has very limited constitutional powers and the duties of the office are largely ceremonial. President Hillery, in his 14 years, had requested only four meetings of the Council of State which were held to consider the constitutional implications of proposed legislation. The issues in the 1990 election, therefore, revolved around the possible expansion of the president’s authority, the style of the offrce-holder in terms of accessibility and non-partisan neutrality, the relevance of ministerial experience and the personalities of the presidential candidates.

MS Robinson was the candidate backed by the Labour Party with the support of the Workers’ Party and other leftist groupings. The junior party in the coalition, the Progressive Democrats, did not formally recommend any candidate but several prominent members spoke glowingly about Robinson. MS Robinson had been a member of the largely indirectly-elected Upper Chamber, Seanad Eireann, and is a barrister and academic lawyer. She is closely associated with several liberal causes,

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156 The Irish Presidential Election

particularly concerning women’s rights. During her campaign she rejected the description ‘socialist’ though her support for socialism in the past was referred to frequently by her opponents.

Following his long political career and courageous fight against very serious illness, Brian Lenihan began the campaign as possibly the Republic’s most popular public figure. He did not share with his rivals a wish to expand the role of the presidency but presented himself as a mature, approachable personality in tune with the public mood. His campaign was overshadowed in the final three weeks by the crisis over his part in the 1982 incident and his dismissal from high office. For many electors Lenihan typifies the traditional brokerage style of Irish politics.

Fine Gael was later than the others in naming its candidate for the presidential election. Several of its most senior figures were known to have refused before Austin Currie was selected. Currie had only entered the Republic’s political arena in 1989. Before his outstanding electoral performance for Fine Gael in Dublin West at the general election of 1989, he had been a senior member of the Social Democratic and Labour Party in Northern Ireland. His campaign Northern Ireland issues. He never showed up well performing very adroitly on television and radio.

The Result

was short and dominated by in the opinion polls despite

The election was held using the single transferable vote system. In the first count it was established that 64.1 per cent of the electorate of 2,471,308 had voted in the ratio 44:39:17 for Lenihan, Robinson and Currie. The elimination of Currie led to the transfer of 76.7 per cent of his vote to Robinson and 13.7 per cent to Lenihan with 9,5 per cent non-transferable. This resulted in a Robinson victory by 817,830 votes (52.8% ) to 73 1,273 (47.2% ). MS Robinson assumed presidential office on 3 December, the first woman to do so.

TABLE 1. Irish presidential election 1990

Candidate 1st count 2nd count

Robinson (Ind) Lenihan (FF) Currie (FG)

38.9 52.8 44.1 47.2 17.0 -

Though much media speculation and some poll data support it, it is not possible to confirm from the election returns the general belief that a high percentage of women voted for Robinson. An opinion poll in the Irish Times on the eve of the election showed Lenihan and Robinson making almost an identical impact on women voters. Previous opinion polls had put Robinson well behind among women voters, but it gave Robinson a lead among the under 34 year olds and the middle class.

Lenihan topped the presidential poll in 27 of the 41 constituencies and Curry was third in all. Lenihan’s best results were in ConnachUlJlster, especially Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan. Robinson was particularly favoured in Dublin. The rate of transfer from Curry to Robinson was fairly uniform across the country at about 77 per cent. This high transfer was helped by a formal agreement between Fine Gael and MS Robinson’s organization.

NEIL COLLINS 157

Conclusion

Mary Robinson’s success in the 1990 election has had an immediate and rejuvenating effect on the presidency. For women, in particular, she represents a symbol of success, recognition and hope for further political progress. For the left wing of Irish politics, Robinson’s poll is taken as a sign that attractively and sensitively presented campaigns can succeed and break the dominance of the right.

The reverberations of their defeat were immediately felt in the two largest parties Fine Gael and Fianna Fail which together hold 80 per cent of the seats in the Dail (Lower House of the National Assembly). Both party leaders came under pressure. Haughey’s dismissal of Brian Lenihan from the government damaged his support in Fianna Fail.

Alan Dukes, facing the prospect of a vote of no confidence from the Fine Gael parliamentary party, resigned as leader. The presidential election was the last straw for many Fine Gael deputies apprehensive about the party’s long term future after a number of reverses. Both the major Irish parties refuse to define themselves as of the political left or right and both attempt to have a broad populist appeal. The ideological tensions in Fine Gael are largely between economic liberalism and social democracy. The election of Mary Robinson is seen by some in the party as signalling the need for a clearer Fine Gael image as a social democratic party. Others stress the traditional role of vigorous opposition to Fianna Fail for the same centrist political ground.

As Table 2 shows, Fianna Fail’s vote in the Presidential election was the same as in the previous general election. The party is still the dominant force in Irish politics. Nevertheless, the 1990 result represents a failure for a party whose vote has never been below 41.9 per cent since 1932 but have failed on six separate occasions under Charles Haughey to win a national contest. Supporters of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) point out, however, that Fine Gael were trounced, the Robinson campaign was run by an unlikely and loose coalition and the Fianna Fail vote was only a few points short of the total that would give them a clear Dail majority. Nevertheless, Haughey’s leadership of the party was called into question by some deputies at the electoral post-mortem.

In her inaugural address President Robinson said: ‘we have passed the threshold of a new pluralist Ireland’. Though some hyperbole is expected on such occasions, there are indications that the President’s assessment may be accurate. Certainly the symbolism and significance of her election should not be underestimated.

TABLE 2. First preference votes 1989 and 1990 (X )

Presidential National

1990 1989

Fianna Fail 44.1 44.1 Fine Gael 170 29.3 Labour - 9.5 Workers Party - 50 Progressive Dem. - 5.5 Indep & others - 66 Robinson 389 -